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(Thread IKs: Stereotype)
 
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Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Mola Yam posted:

industrial society started in 1991

That's correct, industrial society started at the End of History.

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OBAMNA PHONE
Aug 7, 2002
watching children of men again for the first time since it came out and what a fuckin gut punch

Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007
The solar quotes are in. Easy winner at $2.12/Watt, saved my old man an easy 15k before tax credits lol

Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007
turning the A/C to 50 degrees during summer as doomers watch in horror

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

OBAMNA PHONE posted:

watching children of men again for the first time since it came out and what a fuckin gut punch
it's a good movie. imo the best part is the beginning when like clive is just riding the bus to his lovely office job or waiting for a latte and shits just blowing up and killing each other, and everyone just kinda shrugs, just another day in the grind

that's how i picture actual "collapse" or whatever dumb doomer word de jour. you're still going ot your 8-5 sales rep or CS rep or computer touching or whatever job miserable along with everyone else on a bus/train and heave a collective-social shrug about everything crumbling around you. as long enough booze money and a roof above your head gets made to get you through another day

e: oh yeah the second best part is when the baby gets revealed and everything goes silent in awe for like 30 seconds before everyone starts blowing up each other again. a bonafide Jesus moment is irrelevant

Xaris has issued a correction as of 07:04 on Jan 14, 2024

starkebn
May 18, 2004

"Oooh, got a little too serious. You okay there, little buddy?"
I hear scientists say all the time in interviews, the only fix is massive degrowth. It has to be planned, ethical degrowth, which is not politically possible, or chaotic, collapsing degrowth.

No organism is ever going to stop using the resources it can get. Certainly not us. And we're probably past the point of it fixing anything anyway, due to cascading problems. It can only minimise how bad it gets.

Either way it's definitely going to start with the imperial core forcing massive, bloody degrowth on the periphery.

:rubby:

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

starkebn posted:

I hear scientists say all the time in interviews, the only fix is massive degrowth. It has to be planned, ethical degrowth, which is not politically possible, or chaotic, collapsing degrowth.

No organism is ever going to stop using the resources it can get. Certainly not us. And we're probably past the point of it fixing anything anyway, due to cascading problems. It can only minimise how bad it gets.

Either way it's definitely going to start with the imperial core forcing massive, bloody degrowth on the periphery.

:rubby:

yep. when people like bill gates talks about overpopulation, everyone listening knows exactly who he means.

an egg
Nov 17, 2021

Testicular Torque Wrench posted:

My first job was receptionist in a hooker motel run by a Chinese guy who turned a blind eye. One of the rooms was special, room 37, last room on the left, because an ex elementary teacher was, unbeknownst to me at the time, slowly going completely insane in there. She had paid for a year in advance of staying in this old, ratty, run down shithole of a place and had been losing her mind the entire time. The first I saw of her was on night shift, she showed up out of nowhere looking like the ghost from the Grudge, pointed at me from a dark corner of the reception room and said "Youre going to die!" then slowly turned and walked back to her room.

I heard when she left, the cleaning lady (she was a little bit "touched in the head" but still smart enough to) refused to clean her room because it was covered floor to ceiling in human poo poo, with writing on the walls, in poo poo of course.
to the person asking about thread demographics - mine is described above

SniperWoreConverse
Mar 20, 2010



Gun Saliva

starkebn posted:

I hear scientists say all the time in interviews, the only fix is massive degrowth. It has to be planned, ethical degrowth, which is not politically possible, or chaotic, collapsing degrowth.

No organism is ever going to stop using the resources it can get. Certainly not us. And we're probably past the point of it fixing anything anyway, due to cascading problems. It can only minimise how bad it gets.

Either way it's definitely going to start with the imperial core forcing massive, bloody degrowth on the periphery.

:rubby:

I feel like this is not the case. Maybe. Maybe not the case. There have been archeological discoveries -- & admittedly this may be or seem very birdwatcher thread -- where ancient rear end civs have apparently just decided "you know what, gently caress this" and just buried their entire city and hosed on off into the wilds. Just entirely done with it.

For us, now, this is not going to happen. But at some points in the history of earth, for some people, humans even, for one unknown reason or some other they decided to alt-F4 their run of civ. It was not clearly anything that could be attributed to something like famine, war, social strife, just... "yeah, nah, we're good. Gonna go ahead and not do this anymore."

Humans are an old and strange species, and some things are still a little inexplicable. It's a shame we hosed it all up so much that we might not ever get to the point where they're ever really figured out by anyone. A blip and it's all gone. Did we ever even know ourselves? What could have been? Depressing af. It seems plausible that some organism is capable of accessing and using resources responsibly tho.

Mola Yam
Jun 18, 2004

Kali Ma Shakti de!

Xaris posted:

you're still going ot your 8-5 sales rep or CS rep or computer touching or whatever job miserable along with everyone else on a bus/train and heave a collective-social shrug about everything crumbling around you. as long enough booze money and a roof above your head gets made to get you through another day

woah. can't imagine

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice
thinkin bout those dumbass deer on that island. lol idiots

SniperWoreConverse
Mar 20, 2010



Gun Saliva
Very upsetting that by like 400 or 1000 years ago we had already ramped ourselves up to an insane philosophical dilemma where the only result would be that gif of a little kid slamming the trolly across the tied up people on one track and then backing it up to catch the survivors

SniperWoreConverse
Mar 20, 2010



Gun Saliva

Stereotype posted:

thinkin bout those dumbass deer on that island. lol idiots

did they evolve into mice size

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014

SniperWoreConverse posted:

did they evolve into mice size

they evolved into dead deer

SniperWoreConverse
Mar 20, 2010



Gun Saliva
dumbasses

Corsec
Apr 17, 2007

starkebn posted:

I hear scientists say all the time in interviews, the only fix is massive degrowth. It has to be planned, ethical degrowth, which is not politically possible, or chaotic, collapsing degrowth.

No organism is ever going to stop using the resources it can get. Certainly not us. And we're probably past the point of it fixing anything anyway, due to cascading problems. It can only minimise how bad it gets.

Either way it's definitely going to start with the imperial core forcing massive, bloody degrowth on the periphery.

:rubby:

Growth maximisation is not a biological destiny for all organisms. Unsustainable growth happens because anyone who over-exploits will gain material advantages that enable them to dominate others, and anyone who dominates others will more easily be able to over-exploit. It's a runaway growth-based feedback cycle that *requires* the use of violence in order to succeed. People can stop using the resources available to them, but then they won't be able to stop others from using those resources.

It can only be stopped with violence, but we can't fix it because the people that live sustainably can't gain the material advantages necessary to outfight capitalism. Noone can outcompete and force their will upon an industrialised society unless they also industrialize. Stopping runaway climate change requires emancipatory political violence, but *effective* political violence also requires industrialisation and the over-exploitation of fossil fuels.

And the imperial core is now forcing degrowth everywhere, most people in the first-world have declining living standards.

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

yeah, there's no way to overpower the capitalists unless they like, start expending all the energy under their control on fictitious endeavors that don't help them maintain control, but surely they wouldn't do that.

toggle
Nov 7, 2005

starkebn posted:

Either way it's definitely going to start with the imperial core forcing massive, bloody degrowth on the periphery.

:rubby:

covid was the test run hehe

Corsec
Apr 17, 2007

Zodium posted:

yeah, there's no way to overpower the capitalists unless they like, start expending all the energy under their control on fictitious endeavors that don't help them maintain control, but surely they wouldn't do that.

That happened already when the european colonial empires started breaking up. After breaking free from colonialism, the former colonies went all-in on fossil-fuel based industrialization because they knew it was the only way to keep any kind of independence for themselves. Even if the empires fail to successfully project power, the threat of more attempted imperial ventures is a constant pressure on everybody else to develop and industrialize. Anyone who doesn't develop fast enough leaves themselves vulnerable to more imperial fuckery. The non-capitalist states that could defend themselves are, by necessity, as similarly polluting as the capitalist nations are.

We're trapped in an ecological doom spiral because overpowering capitalism is impossible without replicating it's pattern of pollution and especially carbon emissions.

EDIT: Capitalism will kill the whole biosphere if we let it, but the only available means of stopping capitalism will also kill the biosphere too lol.

Corsec has issued a correction as of 12:10 on Jan 14, 2024

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

Corsec posted:

That happened already when the european colonial empires started breaking up.

yeah, after ww2 all the capitalist powers started hollowing out their industrial base and military industrial complex to the point of uselessness in favor of fictitious capital: a thing that definitely happened then, and not something that is happening now.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

quote:

I have a HVAC company in North Carolina. Not a big shop, right now we have seven employees. I am not an HVAC or refrigerant design engineer, just a guy who was a technician, and now owns a small business.

The HVAC trade is great. We make people comfortable, and many would probably say our trade is going to be in even higher demand in the future. I frequently say that we thrive on global warming, while also being a massive contributor.

Let’s start with some basics about air conditioning. I only deal with residential and light commercial comfort cooling, which is what most people relate to. In a ridiculously over-simplified explanation, an A/C or heat pump just moves heat from one place to another, and the medium that moves the heat is the refrigerant. The system has copper tubes filled with refrigerant under pressure, being compressed by the compressor, condensed from a gas into a liquid, and boiled off into a gas again to “make the cold”. Refrigerant is not consumed, but rather travels through the system until there’s a problem and it leaks out.

For years, systems used a refrigerant called R-22, a HCFC. At some point in the 1990s, we found that R-22 was causing a hole in the ozone layer. So, about 15 years ago, the government stepped in to slowly phase out the production of R-22 equipment and the manufacture of new R-22 refrigerant. The industry adopted a new refrigerant called R-410a. This plan was somewhat followed by most developed countries.

R-410a was here to save the day. The new environmentally friendly solution for AC/heat pumps. All the equipment was redesigned for R-410a.

Then we realized that R-410a has a global warming potential (GWP) of 2066 times worse than CO2. In comparison, R-22 has a 1600 GWP (not quite as bad). An average AC unit might hold 5-10 lbs of R410a, which when it leaks or is vented into the atmosphere, is the greenhouse gas equivalent of driving your car about 10,000-20,000 miles. That pink jug every HVAC tech carries in their van is about the equivalent of driving your car 80,000 miles.

You might ask, “but, why would it leak refrigerant?” Oh, what a great question. I would say that the vast majority of equipment that needs to be replaced is due to refrigerant leaks. The whole system is under pressure. It may leak due to installation error, old age, manufacturing quality issues, accidents, etc. R-410a runs at about 50% higher pressures than R-22, so the materials holding in the refrigerant are under more stress to keep it inside the tubes and coils. The government increases minimum efficiency standards every few years, which seems to push manufacturers to use thinner materials to improve heat transfer, as well as cost cutting efforts, and possibly planned obsolescence at the expense of our environment.

All the manufacturers offer a 10-year parts warranty. Are they designing this stuff to last forever, or is there some planned obsolescence built into their products? Some manufacturers, it definitely seems like they’re aiming for their equipment to fail so they can sell more equipment. Many of the components that were once copper, are now made from much cheaper aluminum.

On the subject of efficiency, it sounds great, we get more efficient equipment. The main way equipment gets more efficient is by increasing the surface area to reject heat from the refrigerant. To increase this surface area, the equipment gets bigger, and holds significantly more refrigerant in those tubes. A 12-SEER air conditioner might have held 5 lbs. of R-410a, while an 18-SEER unit might hold 15 lbs. Now, when that high efficiency equipment leaks, the environmental impact is way worse than lower efficiency equipment. The government keeps pushing for higher efficiency, but ultimately the end result is arguably worse for the environment.

So, what does the future bring for refrigerants? In comfort cooling, R-410a is currently being phased out due to the high 2066 GWP, with 2024 being the last year that new R-410a equipment can be manufactured. The new mandate is that new equipment has to use refrigerant under 700 GWP. There will be two new refrigerants, R-32 (675 GWP) and R-454B (465 GWP). It’s a step in the right direction, but at the same time, the automotive industry switched from R-134a (1430 GWP) to R-1234yf (1 GWP). Why are we settling for 700 GWP for comfort cooling? I’m not 100% sure, but I have speculations. Maybe someone with a deeper understanding of refrigerant engineering/design can chime in?

Almost every day, we get the call from someone who says something along the lines of, “I think it’s just low on Freon, if you can come top it off.” I start the uphill battle of explaining why we should figure out where the system is leaking, and make a repair, rather than just add refrigerant to a system we know is leaking. Yes, I make more money on a one-time repair than just refilling the equipment, but in the long term, they lose efficiency, and spend more money on refrigerant. Some people would rather fill up their tire every time they fill their gas tank rather than pull out and plug the nail in their tire. People often want the short-term solution, and don’t want to hear about making actual repairs or possibly replacing their equipment.

I had some hope for the environment. I liked to bury my head in the sand and ignore the environmentally unsound practices taking place all over the world. Recently I had my head pulled out of the sand and my eyes opened to some of the poo poo that goes on that just crushed what little hope I had left.

People in our trade complain that refrigerant is too expensive. The price of refrigerant has increased 3-5x in the last few years due to the production phase-down of R-410a. I would argue that refrigerant is too cheap, because the costs are so low it doesn’t discourage people from wasting it.

We worked with a large apartment community this Spring that made me sick. Years of poor maintenance and planning had them so backed up they had to call an outside vendor for help, though, it was clear they had never employed anyone who knew what they were doing from an HVAC perspective. They gave us a list of about 100 apartments with AC issues. We spent days going from apartment to apartment diagnosing issues and making quick repairs for their overwhelmed and untrained maintenance department. The majority of the units we saw were leaking, and most of the systems were 20+ years old. We watched a maintenance guy on a golf cart ride around 8 hours a day just adding refrigerant to leaking systems. We’d tell them a system needed replaced or repaired, and they would just dump more refrigerant in it. Many systems didn’t even cool for a day after they added refrigerant. After speaking with their regional maintenance director, they said this one property went through 8 pallets of R-421a (3190 GWP) last year. They spent probably $120,000 on refrigerant, just to basically dump it into the atmosphere. That’s roughly the equivalent of 30 million pounds of CO2 last year, or driving your car about 40 million miles.

This one apartment complex went through about 10 times more refrigerant than our entire company uses in a year, servicing thousands of systems.

This is one apartment complex in a first world country. There’s thousands of these apartments all over the world with some guy on a golf cart just pissing away refrigerant with no care for the environmental impact. 20 years from now, when it’s hotter, we’ll just throw more refrigerant at the problem.




https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/15gc7yw/a_perspective_of_the_environmental_impact_of_hvac/

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
don't forget to graph

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice
lol the line is higher now than it was in the middle of summer

Unless
Jul 24, 2005

I art



Andreas Malm is interviewed in today’s Times magazine



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/14/magazine/andreas-malm-interview.html

Corsec
Apr 17, 2007

Zodium posted:

yeah, after ww2 all the capitalist powers started hollowing out their industrial base and military industrial complex to the point of uselessness in favor of fictitious capital: a thing that definitely happened then, and not something that is happening now.

Ah, I see. When you said "fictitious endeavors" I thought you meant failed imperial adventurism like for example the Suez Crisis or the 2nd Iraq War. But now I see that you're referring exclusively to the end-of-history style of de-industrialization in the west.

I didn't claim that there is no chance to overcome capitalism, you misinterpreted my words. I said that capitalism overcomes anything that doesn't also chase infinite growth. And capitalism ensures that the opportunity to overcome it only exists for those that out-industrialize it and use fossil-fuels to beat it at it's own infinite growth game.

Capitalism can afford to de-industrialize because fictitious capital, trade laws, IP, tech monopolies etc serves to keep the other countries locked in a neo-colonial low-wage tributary relationship. The imperial core still keeps the strategic industries and also the most value-added ones. I agree that western de-industrialization has created geopolitical weaknesses that countries like China or Russia can exploit, but they have that opportunity only because they are still industrialized countries with high emissions. The ability to resist imperial military force is directly related to the ability to afford and consume fossil fuels.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Corsec posted:

Ah, I see. When you said "fictitious endeavors" I thought you meant failed imperial adventurism like for example the Suez Crisis or the 2nd Iraq War. But now I see that you're referring exclusively to the end-of-history style of de-industrialization in the west.

I didn't claim that there is no chance to overcome capitalism, you misinterpreted my words. I said that capitalism overcomes anything that doesn't also chase infinite growth. And capitalism ensures that the opportunity to overcome it only exists for those that out-industrialize it and use fossil-fuels to beat it at it's own infinite growth game.

Capitalism can afford to de-industrialize because fictitious capital, trade laws, IP, tech monopolies etc serves to keep the other countries locked in a neo-colonial low-wage tributary relationship. The imperial core still keeps the strategic industries and also the most value-added ones. I agree that western de-industrialization has created geopolitical weaknesses that countries like China or Russia can exploit, but they have that opportunity only because they are still industrialized countries with high emissions. The ability to resist imperial military force is directly related to the ability to afford and consume fossil fuels.

If China is able to achieve the goals in their next 2 five year plans, I think that would be an active counter example to your thesis here.

FUCK COREY PERRY
Apr 19, 2008




hell yeah I fuckin love comprehending manmade horrors

mags
May 30, 2008

I am a congenital optimist.

OBAMNA PHONE posted:

watching children of men again for the first time since it came out and what a fuckin gut punch

it’s not that bad











































yet

Corsec
Apr 17, 2007

Trabisnikof posted:

If China is able to achieve the goals in their next 2 five year plans, I think that would be an active counter example to your thesis here.

I'm guessing you mean the big investment into solar, nuclear and other renewables as a non-fossil-fuel based form of growth? Isn't this something that the thread has already gone over? Renewables require huge amounts of fossil fuels to produce and maintain, and oil is still non-substitutable. As far as I know, they can reduce their dependence on fossil fuels in some sectors but can't de-couple from it. And if they reduce their dependence on fossil fuels but still keep growing the economy, then the total rate of emissions will not be likely to decrease. This is because even though they are reducing the carbon intensity of their economy they are cancelling it out by doing even more things that emit carbon, like for example switching from coal to nuclear power but then also eating much more meat. So, what am I missing here that would make it a counter-example?

Dokapon Findom
Dec 5, 2022

They hated Futanari because His posts were shit.
Nobody is decreasing emissions for any reason.

Dokapon Findom
Dec 5, 2022

They hated Futanari because His posts were shit.
You all did this. I had nothing to do with it

Dokapon Findom
Dec 5, 2022

They hated Futanari because His posts were shit.
Did they ever figure out why ozone depletion accumulates in the southern hemisphere when most emission is in the north? Seems strange considering the Earth moves through space South Pole-first, you'd think the solardynamic drag would make it all go to the north

SniperWoreConverse
Mar 20, 2010



Gun Saliva
The pollutants get funneled there by wind patterns and react with cold weather clouds

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Dokapon Findom
Dec 5, 2022

They hated Futanari because His posts were shit.

SniperWoreConverse posted:

The pollutants get funneled there by wind patterns and react with cold weather clouds



Oh wow, you're telling me this for the first time. I did know about the northern hole but I understood it to be smaller and not as complete. Didn't they determine it takes like 75 years for CFCs to fully dissipate in the stratosphere? So we're only experiencing the full effects of what's been released since 1949? Glad to be disproven on that of course.

The figure I found for stratospheric ozone depletion for the Space Shuttle was 0.25% per launch but I might be misreading that. Again, glad to be proven wrong! :newlol:

Salt Fish
Sep 11, 2003

Cybernetic Crumb

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

for gently caress's sake, the cspam covid thread is that way ---->>>>

Just ask famous covid conspiracy theorist Deborah Birx:

https://twitter.com/LaSeletzky/status/1745289146833510813?t=55Fb47NgYkhOypJIydmLDA&s=19

quote:

Birx became the director of the United States Military HIV Research Program at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, a position she held for nine years, from 1996 to 2005. In that position, Birx led the HIV vaccine clinical trial of RV 144, the first supporting evidence of any vaccine being effective in lowering the risk of contracting HIV.[15]

Ah I'm sure it's fine.

Dokapon Findom
Dec 5, 2022

They hated Futanari because His posts were shit.
I wear a good mask in public situations like in-office work (I am remote 99% of the time), grocery shopping, etc. and no mask when chillin with the homies. Find your balance, minimize unnecessary risk, but learn to adapt

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Corsec posted:

I'm guessing you mean the big investment into solar, nuclear and other renewables as a non-fossil-fuel based form of growth? Isn't this something that the thread has already gone over? Renewables require huge amounts of fossil fuels to produce and maintain, and oil is still non-substitutable. As far as I know, they can reduce their dependence on fossil fuels in some sectors but can't de-couple from it. And if they reduce their dependence on fossil fuels but still keep growing the economy, then the total rate of emissions will not be likely to decrease. This is because even though they are reducing the carbon intensity of their economy they are cancelling it out by doing even more things that emit carbon, like for example switching from coal to nuclear power but then also eating much more meat. So, what am I missing here that would make it a counter-example?

their goals include specifically reducing their total rate of emissions, the rate of emissions per unit of energy, overall energy consumption and overall emissions. additionally, the 14th 5-year plan was the first to not include a GDP growth target, indicating an a shift away from a growth focused economic outlook.

you're saying meeting those goals are impossible, and im pointing out that if they're able to do so, that would indicate they are possible.

Dokapon Findom posted:

Nobody is decreasing emissions for any reason.

china is highly likely to actually decrease emissions within the next few years, not just the rate of emissions, but the actual total emissions.


now if we could only figure out what the difference between their political and economic system from the rest of the world is and maybe replicate it elsewhere....

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Corsec posted:

Renewables require huge amounts of fossil fuels to produce and maintain

I wanted to pull this out as a specific example of a kind of static thinking, that is perfectly predictive in our declining empire, but is treated as a universal truth when it isn't.

what are the fossil fuel inputs required for renewables? energy for manufacture, energy for transportation, energy for maintenance, and energy for disposal. in a static analysis, of course those are all fossil fuel intense. trucks run on fossil fuels, factories are powered by fossil fuel power plants, etc.

but renewables dont require specifically fossil fuel based trucks, they don't require specifically fossil fuel based electricity. any truck will do. any power plant will do.

so if the fossil fuel intensity of transportation or electricity shifts, then the fossil fuel consumption to produce and maintain renewables will shift.

it is a very reasonable prediction to assume that in the west, those shifts won't happen anytime soon if ever. but that doesn't mean it is impossible for those shifts to occur. if a country shifts their grid and transportation infrastructure away from fossil fuels. and that country also produces and maintains their own renewables, then their renewables stop requiring huge amounts of fossil fuels to produce and maintain.

Trabisnikof has issued a correction as of 18:24 on Jan 14, 2024

Skaffen-Amtiskaw
Jun 24, 2023

Even if (and it's a big if) China can manage that change, it doesn't alter that they are already feeling the effects of a warming world, population decline, and ecological precarity that will only accelerate regardless of what they do. They just won't be culpable in keeping their foot on the accelerator like everyone else while they assume carbon credits make everything rosy.

China turning around doesn't change the story outcome, and I still don't see that being anything like what many expect if to be either, despite the obvious strides they have attained. They have enough other issues to contend with that can upset the apple cart. Remember, biosphere collapse is not fossil fuels and climate change. You can look to the neoliberal mode of thinking in seeing cars as being a Bad Thing when powered by FFs, but totally fine and good when powered by wind turbine or PV cell derived electricity. The save is for the auto industry and consumers happy with the status quo, not the environment. And China, to have any remote hope to make their economy "sustainable", has to literally tear their nation apart, or other nations, to find the raw materials with which to do so. That is NOT a win in anything other than the very shallow "well at least someone broke free of the paralysis of late stage capitalism".

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JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


thanks, always happy to learn about some new system input that is certainly not accounted for in climate models

we're toast

also, please eat poo poo thorn wishes talon

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