(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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OddObserver posted:Those things produce tons of space debris which can severely endanger unrelated civilian applications as well, and basically piss off everyone. Russia might have laser systems that can mess with the optics of satelites. Russian claims and reality have little overlap though so who knows. I don't imagine any major power would want to open that door before they face an existential threat though. The economic costs to the global economy would be devastating..
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Jan 14, 2024 17:10
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Antigravitas posted:That is not a can of worms anyone actually wants to open. So many satellites are effectively dual use, once someone starts destroying them, retaliation will inevitiably clear out the sky AND pull in previously uninvolved nations. Kessler Syndrome
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Jan 14, 2024 17:15
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Outside of the fact it would be absolutely insane to open that can of worms a lot of people other than Russians use GLOSNAS and taking it out would be have pretty severe consequences for civilians world wide who rely on it for navigation and poo poo.
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Jan 14, 2024 17:47
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No one had "Kessler Syndrome" on their bingo list for 2024? e:f,b
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Jan 14, 2024 18:05
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Telsa Cola posted:Outside of the fact it would be absolutely insane to open that can of worms a lot of people other than Russians use GLOSNAS and taking it out would be have pretty severe consequences for civilians world wide who rely on it for navigation and poo poo. TBF, no one really uses GLONASS except the Russians. Everyone either uses other global positioning systems like the American Navstar GPS (which is synonymous with "GPS"), EU's GALILEO, or China's BeiDou, or a regional positioning systems like Japan's QZSS or India's NavIC. It's probably a moot point, too, since there's complimentary satellites that augment both GPS and GLONASS networks, or connect all four global GNSS systems.
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Jan 14, 2024 18:10
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Beaten.  I doubt we would actually get to that level but it would compromise a lot of them and launches until it was all tracked and accounted for or dropped out of orbit.
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Jan 14, 2024 18:11
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Putting aside all other considerations of potential consequences, there were a total of 15 ASM-135 ASAT ever made, five of which were used in testing, so there's up to 10 missiles that are now 40 years old and can only be fired from a specially kitted F-15. Furthermore, the live fire test involved hitting a satellite at altitude of 525 kilometres. But GPS and GLONASS satellites orbit at 19-20 THOUSAND kilometres. China also tested an anti-satellite missile in 2007 at an altitude of 865 kilometres. Of course if we can put satellites to such high orbits then we can send satellite killers to the same altitude, but I don't think that anyone in the world has that kind of tech right off the shelf, and building it would be insanely expensive. Given that Ukrainians too can use GLONASS signal and Russians can use GPS and Galileo for their positioning needs, you could say that there are better uses for resources. Shooting down spy satellites would be more significant, but I still don't see it happening here. It would be easier to hack or otherwise sabotage the satellites.
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Jan 14, 2024 18:17
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Kessler Syndrome depends very much on the orbit, the problem is when its too high up and too fast to decay its orbit and get burned up into the atmosphere in a reasonable timeframe while the debris is also causing a chain reaction damaging and destroying other stuff that also spreads more debris.
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Jan 14, 2024 18:18
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Young Freud posted:TBF, no one really uses GLONASS except the Russians. Everyone either uses other global positioning systems like the American Navstar GPS (which is synonymous with "GPS"), EU's GALILEO, or China's BeiDou, or a regional positioning systems like Japan's QZSS or India's NavIC. Yep, for example my handheld cheap Garmin device takes signal from GPS and GLONASS simultaneously to improve accuracy if one's signal is weak.
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Jan 14, 2024 18:19
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Satellite dazzler employment is fraught as far as policy and consequences, but it doesn’t cause Kessler syndrome. A sensor being degraded or blinded doesn’t send thousands of chunks of debris into orbit.
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Jan 14, 2024 18:29
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Any technology Russia has to try to blind spy satellites was probably developed by the USSR 40 years ago and countered by the NRO 39 years ago
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Jan 14, 2024 20:20
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Speaking of things Russia built during the USSR period and can not longer build today, this was reposted by Brown Moses, so if he thinks it's accurate, then it probably is, but it looks like Ukraine shot down a A50U early warning aircraft, the Russian equivalent to the AWACS, and damaged an Il-22 airborne command post, forcing it to land Anapa airport. There was reports that they closed the Kerch bridge because the Russians were afraid the plane might crash into it on emergency approach. https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1746644806590148709 This makes 2 A50Us lost due to enemy fire, the first one being drone bombed last February. Before the war started, Russia had about 9 to 10 airframes operational, so they are now down to 7-8. The Il-22s have also been high-priority targets, with one being lost to Wagner PMC's anti-aircraft artillery during Prigozhin's "March For Justice", also last year.
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Jan 14, 2024 22:42
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Young Freud posted:This makes 2 A50Us lost due to enemy fire, the first one being drone bombed last February. Before the war started, Russia had about 9 to 10 airframes operational, so they are now down to 7-8. That first "lost" A-50 was filmed and credibly posted by witnesses at the airport taking off to go back to Russia for repairs, after the copter drone attack. It was then weeks/months later photographed being returned to duty after they reported repairs to the radome. I do not think that first A-50 should be count as "lost." Ukrainian officials acknowledge that this A-50 returned to Russia, but implied that sanctions would make it impossible for Russia to figure out any way to repair its radar. (which I doubt)
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Jan 14, 2024 23:02
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mlmp08 posted:Ukrainian officials acknowledge that this A-50 returned to Russia, but implied that sanctions would make it impossible for Russia to figure out any way to repair its radar. (which I doubt) Russia has more A-50:s than they have flight-worthy A-50s. I suspect that the repairs consisted of pulling replacement parts from a non-functional plane.
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Jan 15, 2024 00:35
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Medusa posted a story saying that governor of St. Petersburg said that Russian soldiers who have seen ‘gender-neutral bathrooms’ in Ukraine understand what they are fighting for. https://meduza.io/en/news/2024/01/1...re-fighting-for
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Jan 15, 2024 01:07
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the russian soldiers saw toilets with the seat intact and functional flushing and could not comprehend such a thing existing outside a McDonalds
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Jan 15, 2024 05:32
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in actual combat news: https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1746647409545953488 Apparently the Ukrainians have shot down A50, the russian AWACS. EDIT: Wow I am slow
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Jan 15, 2024 09:54
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https://twitter.com/Justin_Br0nk/status/1746847424717410613?t=FMeW9_iQRBwgoQoKPli3nw&s=19 Looks like it could have been another Patriot ambush.
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Jan 15, 2024 12:06
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Kikas posted:EDIT: Wow I am slow How did you get a quote from the A50 right before it was shot down?
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Jan 15, 2024 13:30
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https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1746870919144911132 Allegedly the tail section of the Il-22/command plane that was hit and managed to land. I'm no aviation expert but that seems less than favorable.
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Jan 15, 2024 13:53
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Now you just add more armour to the sections that aren't swiss cheese.
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Jan 15, 2024 21:26
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cochise posted:https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1746870919144911132 There's probably not much there outside of hydraulics and control surfaces--things Russia should be able to fix relatively easily. Now, we haven't seen the extent of the rest of the damage and/or if any of the electronics took shrapnel, so the full extent of the repairability isn't known.
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Jan 15, 2024 22:20
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Looks to me that the pressure vessel ahead of the tail is also swiss cheese.
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Jan 15, 2024 22:34
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Damage to the fuselage is visible as well. Either way its not going to be flying anytike soon
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Jan 15, 2024 22:44
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If the radar array is undamaged then it's probably not much of a loss.
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Jan 15, 2024 22:47
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Wasn't it an Il-22 that Prighozin and his lads shot down while they were on their way to Moscow?
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Jan 16, 2024 03:22
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cochise posted:https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1746870919144911132 It'll buff out, don't worry
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Jan 16, 2024 03:39
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Nuclear Tourist posted:Wasn't it an Il-22 that Prighozin and his lads shot down while they were on their way to Moscow? Supposedly, yeah
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Jan 16, 2024 04:08
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FuturePastNow posted:Supposedly, yeah It made Oryx so I didn't think the claim was really that dubious.  https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/06/chefs-special-documenting-equipment.htmlNMS tags added just in case but it's just an Oryx page not the direct crash photos. Scapegoat fucked around with this message at 05:54 on Jan 16, 2024 |
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Jan 16, 2024 05:31
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/Justin_Br0nk/status/1746847424717410613?t=FMeW9_iQRBwgoQoKPli3nw&s=19 That seems awfully close to the front line for Patriot launcher. It this tweet showing a close estimate of where the A-50 was intercepted over the sea of Azov?
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Jan 16, 2024 07:12
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Some Russian war correspondents are suggesting that this was due to friendly fire. No proof of course, but could be plausible.
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Jan 16, 2024 09:02
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not that I know anything about operating a sam, but it feels wild to mix up something the size of a passenger jet that has an active radar array on top with a Ukrainian cruise missile or the jet launching it. it would probably be the worse scenario for russia
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Jan 16, 2024 09:10
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Charliegrs posted:If the radar array is undamaged then it's probably not much of a loss. that was picture of Il-22 (airborne command post plane), AWACS plane with radome is A-50 and it was shot down even according to Russian sources
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Jan 16, 2024 09:22
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Nitrox posted:Some Russian war correspondents are suggesting that this was due to friendly fire. No proof of course, but could be plausible. If you’re operating an airborne information and command aircraft and you get shot down by a friendly anti-aircraft battery do you blame them or yourself?
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Jan 16, 2024 09:27
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The Artificial Kid posted:If you’re operating an airborne information and command aircraft and you get shot down by a friendly anti-aircraft battery do you blame them or yourself? Sounds like the kind of scenario that happens as a result of institutional rot leading to a cascade of errors by multiple participants ie: how Moskva possibly hard failed at damage control
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Jan 16, 2024 09:33
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The Artificial Kid posted:If you’re operating an airborne information and command aircraft and you get shot down by a friendly anti-aircraft battery do you blame them or yourself? Russian soldiers looking at fraggings done in other armies and thinking "amateurs" poo poo like this does reiterate the larger issue of negligence that Russia seems to experience. This incident feels similar to the sinking of the Moskva in that these two planes should absolutely have had the capability to see the attack coming a long way off, but for whatever human reasons were just oblivious until it was too late.
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Jan 16, 2024 09:47
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Budzilla posted:That seems awfully close to the front line for Patriot launcher. It this tweet showing a close estimate of where the A-50 was intercepted over the sea of Azov? Yeah. Bottom right is a still from a Ukrainian video allegedly showing the A-50 disappearing from radar. Bottom left is the frontline. Top right is a speculation on the launcher's position.
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Jan 16, 2024 11:35
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you definitely wouldn't risk a whole patriot battery anywhere close to the frontlines. a single launcher? maybe, if the payoff was worth it. dunno if that's even practical though, and dunno if an A-50 would be worth it.
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Jan 16, 2024 13:28
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:you definitely wouldn't risk a whole patriot battery anywhere close to the frontlines. a single launcher? maybe, if the payoff was worth it. dunno if that's even practical though, and dunno if an A-50 would be worth it. They've done this twice before, an an A-50 is probably the biggest prize they could get, so...
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Jan 16, 2024 13:40
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Scapegoat posted:It made Oryx so I didn't think the claim was really that dubious. I wasn't really doubting the claim, though I hadn't seen the crash photo before. lol that they flew that thing close enough to a coup column to get shot down
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Jan 16, 2024 16:35
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