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Is the GOP still doing winner take all for delegates
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Jan 16, 2024 05:31
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| # ? May 25, 2024 17:11 |
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Hopefully (lol I know) Vivek watching Republicans write him off simply because he's brown and has a secret "muslim-y" name is some sort of wake up call down the road. E: But until then, gently caress you, you debased yourself to the worst people alive. Lick that boot you craven motherfucker.
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Jan 16, 2024 05:34
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dpkg chopra posted:The most boring of outcomes. Trump ahead but not so ahead that it gives us any new insights. De Santis second which will keep him in the race. Haley third but close enough to second that she’ll try to keep her momentum dreams alive. Boring in that it maintains the status quo; exciting in that Trump, DeSantis, and Haley now have even more incentive to trash each other as much as possible. Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Is the GOP still doing winner take all for delegates Not for Iowa. It is for some states, though.
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Jan 16, 2024 05:34
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Is the GOP still doing winner take all for delegates it's more of a mishmash than previous cycles I think, I remember in the past more states had delegates by congressional district. wiki says: quote:There will be an estimated total of 2,467 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention. In contests until March 15, delegates must be awarded on a proportional basis, either by percentage of statewide vote or share of congressional districts won. Some states have established thresholds between 4 and 20% for proportionality to kick in, under which a candidate receives no delegates. A vast majority, 41 contests totaling 1,920 delegates, operate this way using methods that are hybrid between proportionality and majority-take-all. New York for example has a 20% threshold for proportionality but if a candidate wins a majority, they take all delegates. and ballotpedia has the specifics https://ballotpedia.org/Republican_delegate_rules,_2024 NH will have a 10% threshold, for instance
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Jan 16, 2024 06:16
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Ron Dion Desantis
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Jan 16, 2024 06:31
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Young Freud posted:Iowa claims the first primary casualty. Vivek's out. Imagine spending months in Iowa only to pull 4th place ahead of a few guys that dropped out and one that I am pretty sure is made up. The gently caress is an Asa?
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Jan 16, 2024 06:59
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I just noticed that this year's GOP iowa caucus compared to 2016 is really godamn low.
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Jan 16, 2024 07:08
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Grouchio posted:I just noticed that this year's GOP iowa caucus compared to 2016 is really godamn low. it's -7f and very few people are going out to vote in a caucus that everybody knew trump was winning a year ago
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Jan 16, 2024 07:52
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Phlegmish posted:Yup. Extremely preliminary results from the Iowa GOP site, but the final percentages will probably be similar. Binkley? 
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Jan 16, 2024 08:42
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2024 GOP Primary: Vivek returns to his soulgem
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Jan 16, 2024 08:51
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2024 GOP Primary - Vivek 2024- Debasement leads to the basement
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Jan 16, 2024 09:26
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Final results are in. Trump has won with 51% of the vote, and also got at least a plurality in every single county (except Johnson County, where the University of Iowa is located, and where Haley apparently won by a single vote). Not as crushing a victory as he might have wanted, but getting more than every other candidate combined is still nothing to sneeze at. To no one's surprise, Ramaswamy has dropped out and endorsed Trump. e: Hutchinson, buoyed by his massive 0.2% landslide, has of course vowed to stay in the race Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 16:01 on Jan 16, 2024 |
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Jan 16, 2024 15:56
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I admire the one guy who marched out into the midwestern frost (still colder here  ) to cast the one vote for Hutchinson
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Jan 16, 2024 15:58
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So now we have the results, how inaccurate were the polls? Did any pollster get it right? I assume they were all wrong like E.Musk is.
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Jan 16, 2024 16:06
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Comstar posted:So now we have the results, how inaccurate were the polls? Did any pollster get it right? Polls were pretty close to Trump's final result, but incorrectly predicted that Haley would have more votes than Desantis:  
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Jan 16, 2024 16:10
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Looks like they were reasonably close...except when it comes to DeSantis, for some reason. I'm guessing a lot of people decided to vote for him at the last second, out of pity. He's been trying so hard. More seriously, he put a lot of effort into gaining support among local opinion leaders, which probably helped him when the time came for the representatives to deliver their speeches.
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Jan 16, 2024 16:15
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Phlegmish posted:Looks like they were reasonably close...except when it comes to DeSantis, for some reason. I'm guessing a lot of people decided to vote for him at the last second, out of pity. He's been trying so hard. DeSantis is within the margin of error for most polls. Some polls were significantly off, but the overall average of polls did very well. Caucuses are also generally more difficult to poll than primaries. The only thing that was a little off was not really the polls fault. A lot of people were assuming that the undecideds were eventually going to just go with Trump because they usually just go for the default choice. But, they either voted for someone else or didn't show up.
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Jan 16, 2024 16:46
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There's two ways to interpret iowa: either the Republicans are still all in for Trump, or the only people still Republicans are all in for Trump.
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Jan 16, 2024 16:55
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Hutch-mentum is dead. https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1747288921468240319
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Jan 16, 2024 17:12
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I'm thinking it's just Republicans still being all in for Trump. It was really cold, and Trump was probably going to win so a lot of people just stayed home. This article says who voted for Haley as opposed to Trump. They seem like the Republicans (and probably some Democrats and Independents) who caucused for Haley are the ones who already stopped supporting Trump. https://www.npr.org/2024/01/16/1224874558/takeaways-iowa-republican-caucus-2024 NPR posted:But there are some red flags for Haley going forward. NPR posted:Put another way ... almost $124 million was spent on campaign ads in Iowa by the Republican candidates, more than any other state by far. This is a crazy stat though. Such as waste of money, at least if voters were bribed, they could spend that money on food. This is all on advertising that isn't changing anybody's minds. This CNN article has the breakdown of who spend what. About 105 million for the non Trump candidates and 18 million for Trump. https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/15/politics/advertising-spending-iowa-republicans/index.html
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Jan 16, 2024 17:20
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Barely topping 50% in a rural midwestern caucus is not great for Trump given how tailor made the contest was for him. I don't see anyone beating him for the GOP nomination, but I don't see the results as good news for him in terms of the general election.
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Jan 16, 2024 17:28
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A few elements of CNN's entrance polling:
Generally, those findings split to two categories. One is that Iowa's caucusgoers are not particularly representative of the nationwide electorate, even among Republicans (much whiter and more rural, per pew). This used to be more generally accepted and uncontroversial 9 years ago, but  The other is that a conviction, even ignoring the impact on negative partisanship, still appears as if it'll be fatal regardless of the path the GOP takes. At that point, even the Republican feverdream of Phillips meaningfully splitting Biden's vote (by grabbing the chunk of Dems who feel Biden's too far left) doesn't seem like it'd be enough to save them. We've seen it happen at a state level before (Penny's reform party in MN handing Pawlenty two terms as governor), but most of the country doesn't share Minnesota's long history of third parties and coalitions (see:DFL)
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Jan 16, 2024 17:30
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Hutch-mentum is dead. He couldn’t handle losing to... *squints, audibly confused* Ryan? Binkley?
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Jan 16, 2024 17:36
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It would never actually happen, but Trump being so "Definitely going to win" the primary that he actually ends up losing due the less fervent members of his base assuming he's got it, would be a hilarious reversal of fortune
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Jan 16, 2024 17:43
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whydirt posted:Barely topping 50% in a rural midwestern caucus is not great for Trump given how tailor made the contest was for him. I don't see anyone beating him for the GOP nomination, but I don't see the results as good news for him in terms of the general election. With the exception of maybe the towns along the Mississippi that are arguably part of the Rust Belt, Iowa is not Trump country at all. He got trounced by Ted Cruz there back in 2016. However, it is true that he has managed to win over evangelicals since then, as they realized that (despite him personally being an immoral philanderer) he would implement their policies and appoint conservatives wherever possible, so I guess you could still say that 51% isn't too impressive
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Jan 16, 2024 17:47
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DalaranJ posted:He couldn’t handle losing to... I am lolling at him throwing shade at the state of Iowa on the way out quote:My message of being a principled Republican with experience and telling the truth about the current frontrunner did not sell in Iowa. I am the best candidate, however, these loving idiots couldn't see that. The Hutch out
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Jan 16, 2024 18:20
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I mean, he’s right. Telling the truth about the current front runner doesn’t play well to Iowa republicans. Or any other republicans. They believe in mirror universe Trump more than they believe in Jesus.
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Jan 16, 2024 18:38
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Oh, he's absolutely correct, that's what makes it even funnier
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Jan 16, 2024 18:51
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Jan 16, 2024 18:54
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HutchHeads in shambles
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Jan 16, 2024 19:15
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Ron's loss is yet another blow to the italian american community
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Jan 16, 2024 20:15
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OctaMurk posted:Ron's loss is yet another blow to the italian american community https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1747122489887805536
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Jan 16, 2024 20:21
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whydirt posted:Barely topping 50% in a rural midwestern caucus is not great for Trump given how tailor made the contest was for him. I don't see anyone beating him for the GOP nomination, but I don't see the results as good news for him in terms of the general election. The extreme cold for the older voting base that caucuses and the fact that everyone considered it a race for 2nd place makes extrapolation on how good or bad the result is for Trump really difficult. It's hard for me to say it's lack of enthusiasm when a lot of people didn't bother going because of those factors.
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Jan 16, 2024 20:29
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Former DeSantis campaign advisor spills the beans on how sad the campaign was. Nothing too surprising, but the details are funny.quote:Over the last few weeks, about half a dozen reporters told me they were getting ready to write the obituary on DeSantis’s campaign and wanted to include comments I made to them in off-the-record meetings. quote:For months, I warned Governor DeSantis and his team about their campaign strategy; everything from the super PAC to his message seemed wrong, and I made it known. So here’s what happened. quote:On May 10, I boarded a Delta Airlines flight to Tallahassee to meet the governor, his wife and his campaign team. It was a sort of meet and greet and strategy session for “influencers,” a term I despise, but I’ll go with it, given that’s what everyone was calling it. I need to clarify from the start that DeSantis, his team and the campaign did NOT pay for my hotel or flight. Every influencer had to pay their own way. quote:At the kick-off of the meeting, the team introduced themselves and gave a brief résumé of their past campaign experience. My political Spidey-sense immediately started tingling because I began to hear the same thing repeatedly: “I worked for Ted Cruz in 2016.” quote:“Thirty percent of the Republican electorate is always Trump, 20 percent is with DeSantis, 15 percent is NeverTrump and 35 percent is like Trump but is considering an alternative who holds his opinions,” DeSantis’s pollster said. quote:“You always mention Florida, but I don’t want to move to Florida. I like mountains and seasons. You need to speak to people who want to stay in the Midwest; you need a national vision. You can’t plant palm trees in Michigan; what are you going to do for people in the Midwest.” quote:DeSantis said he mentioned China, and then the next influencer began to speak. Like the first influencer, I spoke to him beforehand, saying we need to be honest that things aren’t going well, and he agreed. quote:DeSantis asked the room another question, “What are the biggest issues facing the country?” quote:I said, “You need to attack Trump.” quote:I made my way to a car with another influencer. We sat in the back seat and looked at each other. He said, “Dude, that was horrible, wasn’t it? Like this is not good.” I agreed and thought I had to speak to the campaign team during the dinner. quote:Weeks later, I received word that he was announcing his run on a Twitter Space with Elon Musk onstage. quote:As the weeks went by, I grew more frustrated. The advance team was doing a terrible job with his videos off-center with awful lighting, and he was tripling down on the Evangelical vote in Iowa. He appeared on a Christian television show, and it came off terribly to me; it took several times for DeSantis to mention he was Catholic after being asked. When asked about the Vatican, he talked about Israel. Evangelicals are not who they were in the year 2000 — many don’t go to church, most Republicans don’t go to church on a weekly basis and they’re much more transactional in how they approach politics. quote:I said that the advance team was an embarrassment and should be fired, the messaging was all wrong, that doubling down to try to sound like an Evangelical when he was not an Evangelical would not work and his interview on the Christian show was embarrassing. https://thespectator.com/politics/told-ron-desantis-campaign-2024/
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Jan 16, 2024 21:39
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quote:For how smart you were and as good of a baseball player you were, you would not have gotten into Yale today because you are a straight white male. They have to know that you understand that and that you share their fears and will fight to fix it.” That is such a load of crap.
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Jan 16, 2024 21:44
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Eric Cantonese posted:That is such a load of crap. Yeah, he's still such a DeSantis fan that he dropped his career to become a campaign advisor and has awful political views. But, he is leaking all the emails and conversations now because he is mad and most of them have already been leaked for an upcoming book that he is trying to get ahead of.
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Jan 16, 2024 21:48
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Eric Cantonese posted:That is such a load of crap. i find it funny because this guy is giving him the wrong answers too. he wants him to double down on the culture war poo poo which i dont think works and makes him poison to moderates. you wont win my dad and various extend family by screaming about woke.
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Jan 16, 2024 21:51
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Former DeSantis campaign advisor spills the beans on how sad the campaign was. Nothing too surprising, but the details are funny. I don't doubt that these details are largely true, but this is 100% someone flailing to save their future career in GOP politics
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Jan 16, 2024 21:52
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ninjahedgehog posted:I don't doubt that these details are largely true, but this is 100% someone flailing to save their future career in GOP politics yeah, all this sounds correct but its mostly sounds like a /pol/ chud who liked desantis because he was "smart" about bigotry and woops the guy is a weird charisma vacum and "smart" bigotry doesnt work on chud randos.
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Jan 16, 2024 21:55
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i find it funny because this guy is giving him the wrong answers too. he wants him to double down on the culture war poo poo which i dont think works and makes him poison to moderates. you wont win my dad and various extend family by screaming about woke. You don't think affirmative action is different? I think of it as more of a borderline pocketbook/class security issue that does resonate with white voters.
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Jan 16, 2024 21:55
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