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median sold prices seem to be where they were 3 years ago now
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# ? Jan 15, 2024 00:49 |
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# ? Jun 2, 2024 21:14 |
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Typo posted:median sold prices seem to be where they were 3 years ago now I’m sticking to my guess that housing drops 20% YoU. Maybe more in the BC condo market. If it’s dropping before rate drops (which, aside from COVID free money era, always leads to price drops) and the required recession for those rate drops, there’s zero fundamentals signaling any more bumps. The talk of immigration limits, not that immigrants with average $38k salary are buying homes, means that artificial floor pricing dream of existing home owners is gone too. I hope I’m wrong in that it’s even more.
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# ? Jan 15, 2024 07:55 |
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RealityWarCriminal posted:It would be nice if there was some real industry for these people to work in rather than working in a tim's in an isolated town I saw something about Nova Scotia I think, going on a recruiting journey to bring in tradespeople. Yes, here it is https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/more-than-4-000-skilled-workers-apply-for-halifax-jobs-after-recruitment-drive-1.7082622 Lead out in cuffs posted:IIRC the Conservative proposal is to try to force municipalities / provinces to relax their building codes. Which probably isn't legally possible, but also seems like a pretty terrible idea. Also building codes are no part of a roadblock to building that I can see. Every time I've seen a building cancelled or modified it's been some combo of shadow studies, too tall, not enough parking, character, or some form of restrictive zoning. That's leaving out the general pushback when homeowners find out they might have to live within 10 km of social housing, poor people, or renters.
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# ? Jan 15, 2024 15:13 |
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I’m not sure whether building codes are causing a huge issue but if they are it’s unlikely you’d be seeing it manifest as canceled or modified projects. People in development know the code can’t be negotiated with so they’ll comply with it from the start in comparison to other aspects that do have flexibility. That said I did find this article an interesting read about what they see as impacts of building code on affordability. https://www.centerforbuilding.org/blog/we-we-cant-build-family-sized-apartments-in-north-america
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# ? Jan 15, 2024 18:58 |
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I'm under the impression that building code is more of a blocker to like what sort of product gets built and the flexibility that developers have. I'm not sure it's like a total deal breaker that kills projects, but tweaking the building code could make it cheaper to do certain sorts of things. Biggest example I can think of is that I've repeatedly read that single stair type buildings would make it remarkably easier and cheaper to make three bedroom units, with developers and architects pointing to the inflexibility that derives from the two stairway mandate as a major cause why three bedroom units are rare. So like if the government wants more three bedrooms, they could like mandate some percentage amount, which could render certain projects unviable, which could result in less buildings and less total units being built. Or they could change the building code in a way that makes three bedrooms easier to build and more profitable.
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# ? Jan 15, 2024 21:13 |
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I heard if you downgrade the cladding from 'non-flammable' to 'flammable' you can reduce costs and as a bonus maybe kill an entire condo building full of working class families. Works out for everyone when you think about it.
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# ? Jan 15, 2024 22:43 |
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qhat posted:I heard if you downgrade the cladding from 'non-flammable' to 'flammable' you can reduce costs and as a bonus maybe kill an entire condo building full of working class families. Works out for everyone when you think about it. Oh yeah, Britain pioneered this technology
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# ? Jan 15, 2024 22:46 |
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Mederlock posted:Oh yeah, Britain pioneered this technology Yeah that was specifically the example I was thinking about. In theory simplifying building codes would only be to consolidate existing rules and get rid of obsolete ones, but never compromising on safety. Imagine that though.
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# ? Jan 15, 2024 22:48 |
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https://rentals.ca/national-rent-report Rents 📉 even in the two provinces with the highest levels of immigration.
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# ? Jan 15, 2024 23:19 |
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Nairbo posted:https://rentals.ca/national-rent-report Maybe I missed something but it just looks like the rate increase was lower, not that rents actually decreased in real terms. This is always to be expected when the market reaches its maximum asking price - it’ll asymptote. I’m on mobile though so maybe I missed something I could have seen on a larger screen.
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# ? Jan 15, 2024 23:51 |
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a primate posted:Maybe I missed something but it just looks like the rate increase was lower, not that rents actually decreased in real terms. This is always to be expected when the market reaches its maximum asking price - it’ll asymptote. I’m on mobile though so maybe I missed something I could have seen on a larger screen. Those are the rates of decreases Month over Month, which is the trend line to use for something as reactive and leading as rent. Vancouver, for example, was $2866 for a 1 bedroom in December 2023 vs $2700 in January 2024. Some seasonality is to blame as January is often the slowest month, but 5.8% is a significant jump from the 1% decrease MoM in the January 2023 report. The jumps in Alberta offset some of the losses in BC and Ontario to a degree but sentiment in AB is still high and rent vs wages isn't so insanely out of wack like it is in BC/ON (not to mention sales prices in AB are flat vs dropping in BC/ON)
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# ? Jan 16, 2024 00:20 |
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Fidelitious posted:Also building codes are no part of a roadblock to building that I can see. Every time I've seen a building cancelled or modified it's been some combo of shadow studies, too tall, not enough parking, character, or some form of restrictive zoning. Violating building codes have liability, including criminal. None of the rest of what you mentioned does, and I think it's obvious what motivation developers have here.
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# ? Jan 16, 2024 02:50 |
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The problem with using Grenfell as some example of deregulation gone bad is that at no point was any of that cladding or insulation appropriate to use at all and the regulations actually prevented the use of this cladding for tall buildings. It seems like the main reason why the flammable product was used was due to incompetence and the inspectors not really caring. Doesn't really seem like a problem with deregulation.quote:Grenfell Tower was inspected 16 times while the cladding was being put on but none of these inspections noticed that materials effectively banned in tall buildings were being used. whoopsie. Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 05:11 on Jan 16, 2024 |
# ? Jan 16, 2024 05:09 |
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Libs finally realizing that they're being pulverized in the polls and maybe they should do somethingquote:Ottawa may 'rein in' temporary resident numbers as housing concerns intensify, minister says
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# ? Jan 16, 2024 05:39 |
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Obviously not going to do the correct thing, but they will surely do something.
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# ? Jan 16, 2024 06:02 |
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Femtosecond posted:The problem with using Grenfell as some example of deregulation gone bad is that at no point was any of that cladding or insulation appropriate to use at all and the regulations actually prevented the use of this cladding for tall buildings. It seems like the main reason why the flammable product was used was due to incompetence and the inspectors not really caring. Doesn't really seem like a problem with deregulation. There are ways for government to effectively deregulate without actually changing any laws that would seem in a way heinous to the casual voter. Such as there's too much money being spent doing, for example, inspecting buildings and bureaucratic red tape, so let's just uh not spend money on that thing. The management of the building was the local council of the borough, i.e elected officials. Residents were complaining and the local government just threw the complaints in the bin, thinking it was just a bunch of whiny poors getting in the way of real profit making. Given the opportunities, these bastards would 100% enshrine these lax standards into law, which is why everyone should make sure they never ever get the chance.
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# ? Jan 16, 2024 06:10 |
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lolquote:Planned 55-Storey Tower In Vancouver West End Placed Under Receivership Let's see what the city staff has to say in their report... quote:Staff have provided a preliminary assessment of the proposal to rezone 830-850 Thurlow Street Pretty remarkable chutzpah that it appears the entire business model for this tower relied on completely contravening City of Vancouver public protected view policy, somehow convincing the city to make some sort of special exemption and building a tower that is remarkably over height. Is there any business that has such a casual disregard for regulations? "Coincidentally" the specific view that Vancouver's ABC council is suddenly so interested in reviewing is this particular view that impacted this development. No wonder everyone thinks developers are corrupt crooks.
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# ? Jan 17, 2024 07:30 |
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Protecting view cones is silly, especially given the current housing crisis.
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# ? Jan 17, 2024 18:14 |
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drat that's really edging into "the bank has a problem" levels of unpayable debt.quote:the View Protection Guidelines and the West End Community Plan, Rezoning Policy for the West End, and accompanying West End – Tower Form, Siting and Setbacks Bulletin Looking forward to that site being an empty pit or an ugly parking lot for the forseeable future due to these arbitrary aesthetic regulations.
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# ? Jan 17, 2024 18:41 |
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That's pretty funny but this is how development in Vancouver has worked for the past thirty years. You buy land that's 'undervalued' because of its zoning or development restrictions and try to capitalize on that by acting like you're being unreasonably restrained by the restrictions continuing to exist now that you've bought it. It's functionally the same as buying things like the Molson brewery based on a business model that requires completely different zoning.
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# ? Jan 17, 2024 18:58 |
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T.C. posted:It's functionally the same as buying things like the Molson brewery based on a business model that requires completely different zoning. This is one of my favourite land use cases. Concord Pacific acquires the site for $185 million despite established City policy against the conversion of industrial land, which was assessed at $49 million because it's an heavy industrial site. Will no one rid me of these burdensome regulators and allow me to build this? Senakw is just next door (FN lands are their own beast), so why not let us build upon that too?
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# ? Jan 17, 2024 19:17 |
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Evis posted:Protecting view cones is silly, especially given the current housing crisis. If only were it possible to build anything at all in the 70+ blocks of residentially zoned land south of this parcel. Alas...
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# ? Jan 17, 2024 19:32 |
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Square Peg posted:drat that's really edging into "the bank has a problem" levels of unpayable debt. It's still standing and full of tenants. And eh, the assessed value is roughly equal to what's owed to the bank, so the building is pretty much theirs, now. But yeah, it's pretty unlikely that anyone is gonna buy it from them in the current construction environment, and $2M/year in rental income on a $100M property is not exactly an enormous ROI. (Also, as femtosecond says, there are better places to build a new condo tower than demolishing a perfectly-good 7-storey rental building with 160 units). Lead out in cuffs fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Jan 17, 2024 |
# ? Jan 17, 2024 19:32 |
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A huge reason why you get so many big corporate "criminal developers" that rely on outright corruption to get anything built is that we've designed an insane system of zoning and regulations that essentially forces that sort of behavior and filters out any other developers not big and corrupt enough to navigate the system. Like wondering why so many criminals were involved in alcohol during prohibition. it's why the huge corporate developers are pretty silent or even slightly against a lot of this "yimby" movement poo poo. They don't want the competition. They thrive in this regulatory environment.
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# ? Jan 17, 2024 19:33 |
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T.C. posted:That's pretty funny but this is how development in Vancouver has worked for the past thirty years. You buy land that's 'undervalued' because of its zoning or development restrictions and try to capitalize on that by acting like you're being unreasonably restrained by the restrictions continuing to exist now that you've bought it. I think one of the most persuasive arguments Abundant Housing ever made about the dysfunctional housing system was that the status quo of elaborate zoning and "let's make a deal" type fee structure ensures that only enormously wealthy global developers can participate. If it's only possible to profitably and viably create housing by finding some sort of structurally undervalued land and going through some years long, baroque process to get it beneficially rezoned, only very well capitalized, established companies with enormously deep pockets and tons of expertise and connections will be able to navigate this process. No surprise then that development in Vancouver is effectively an oligopoly of a handful of enormous players (Bosa, Onni, Aquilini, Westbank, Polygon..) and development is very limited to just a relatively small number of enormous mega developments. Developers basically have to make enormous bets on getting a rezone, with a critical everything or nothing result. Absolutely the sort of environment that invites suspicion of deep corruption, and Vancouverites believe it because they've seen evidence again and again that these developers are routinely asked to make enormous political donations. If we had another system where you could build a lot more everywhere and the rules were more liberalized, if it was possible to viably build a building simply by staying within the rules, then I think you would see a lot more variety of smaller builders in the market and there'd be more competition.
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# ? Jan 17, 2024 19:42 |
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drat Baronjutter beat me to it.
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# ? Jan 17, 2024 19:44 |
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I wonder if 11044227 BC Ltd donated to Councillor Peter Meiszner to get him to put forward a motion to get rid of the specific view cone that makes their property worth only ~90M. I don't think we're going to find out.
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# ? Jan 17, 2024 19:48 |
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In Victoria the vast majority of our rental stock wasn't build by a handful of huge developers, it was built by individuals or small groups of friends. 3 dentists could get together, buy a couple old houses, and put up a cheap simple 4 story apartment building with fairly off the shelf plans. The approval process was quick and easy, the plans and construction was practically standardized mass housing, and the tax structure made it attractive. It was so attractive that so many "small groups of dentists" build so much housing that by the late 70's landlords and single family home owners were screaming at the city to downzone because we had too much cheap rental housing and it was hard to rent it all out. If your city doesn't make it easy for a few local dentists to pool their money together, easily navigate the approvals system, and successfully put up an apartment building, you got a broken housing system.
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# ? Jan 17, 2024 20:10 |
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lol yeah I recall reading about all this. It sounded from what I read that a huge amount of this derived from beneficial tax breaks from the Feds. Basically for very high income earners, ie. Dentists, there was some way to pay less taxes by funnelling money into apartment development. Apparently they were barely profitable but it was worth doing for the tax lowering aspect? If that's the case no wonder other developers were mad. So yeah all of this ended in the 1970s when the Feds got rid of a ton of beneficial tax breaks that made apartments desirable to build. (hey it's almost as if the Feds have an impact on housing despite it not being their direct jurisdiction...)
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# ? Jan 17, 2024 20:24 |
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Femtosecond posted:I wonder if 11044227 BC Ltd donated to Councillor Peter Meiszner to get him to put forward a motion to get rid of the specific view cone that makes their property worth only ~90M. I don't think we're going to find out. Lol I was doing some Googling and this Kang Yu Canning Zou guy (aka 11044227 BC Ltd ) seems like quite the piece of work. https://supremeadvocacy.ca/2023/07/20/scc-today-10-dismissed/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=scc-today-10-dismissed Bailing out his struggling development corp by just taking $30M from another international company that he totally wasn't the director of: quote:1115830 B.C. Ltd., et al. v. Treasure Bay HK Limited, et al., 2022 BCCA 380 (40562) Defrauding his co-investors out of their stake when buying Grouse Mountain on behalf of the Chinese government (yes, for three years this guy owned 60% of Grouse Mountain, with the other 40% being owned by CMIG, a parastatal of the PRC): https://today.line.me/hk/v2/article/MkXzJa (It was later unloaded by CMIG when they ran into financial difficulties, and returned to being owned by Vancouver-based evil business tycoons instead). Looks like this is his overall investment corp: https://cmpartners.ca/portfolio And their portfolio is (was): Grouse Mountain, this property, and a consignment furniture store in Washington State. So I guess they're down to the furniture store now.
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# ? Jan 17, 2024 20:25 |
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Baronjutter posted:In Victoria the vast majority of our rental stock wasn't build by a handful of huge developers, it was built by individuals or small groups of friends. 3 dentists could get together, buy a couple old houses, and put up a cheap simple 4 story apartment building with fairly off the shelf plans. The approval process was quick and easy, the plans and construction was practically standardized mass housing, and the tax structure made it attractive. It was so attractive that so many "small groups of dentists" build so much housing that by the late 70's landlords and single family home owners were screaming at the city to downzone because we had too much cheap rental housing and it was hard to rent it all out. Femtosecond posted:lol yeah I recall reading about all this. It sounded from what I read that a huge amount of this derived from beneficial tax breaks from the Feds. Basically for very high income earners, ie. Dentists, there was some way to pay less taxes by funnelling money into apartment development. Apparently they were barely profitable but it was worth doing for the tax lowering aspect? If that's the case no wonder other developers were mad. Going by how much of the wood-frame low-rise in Vancouver was built in the 1960s/1970s, I'd 100% believe that it was a similar situation here.
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# ? Jan 17, 2024 20:28 |
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Boom government finally does a thing. quote:Canada unveils new restrictions on work permits for international students, spouses RIP diploma mills.
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# ? Jan 22, 2024 19:46 |
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It's about drat time, honestly. Working at a school that voluntarily gave up its ability to seek foreign students because it was such a bullshit pain in the rear end to put up with, it's my opinion that foreign students should be limited to universities. Otherwise, find a way to be legally resident in Canada outside of being a student, and then do what you will.
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# ? Jan 22, 2024 20:10 |
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Femtosecond posted:RIP diploma mills. It's worth noting that the power to strip accreditation from diploma mills, thus depriving them of the ability to have visas issued to their "students," has always been a provincial power and not a federal one.
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# ? Jan 22, 2024 21:08 |
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PT6A posted:It's about drat time, honestly. Working at a school that voluntarily gave up its ability to seek foreign students because it was such a bullshit pain in the rear end to put up with, it's my opinion that foreign students should be limited to universities. Why is it better for them to be at universities? I think we need more people with vocational training than BAs at this point, from an economic perspective.
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# ? Jan 22, 2024 21:16 |
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tagesschau posted:It's worth noting that the power to strip accreditation from diploma mills, thus depriving them of the ability to have visas issued to their "students," has always been a provincial power and not a federal one. But they are businesses, and Ontario is Open For Business™
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# ? Jan 22, 2024 21:21 |
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Powershift posted:But they are businesses, and Ontario is Open For Business™ Promoting businesses that don't produce anything is certainly in keeping with the theme of overvaluing assets that don't produce anything.
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# ? Jan 22, 2024 21:25 |
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Subjunctive posted:Why is it better for them to be at universities? I think we need more people with vocational training than BAs at this point, from an economic perspective. Because universities are somewhat selective with the students they admit. I agree bona fide career colleges would probably be okay, but unless we start regulating them a hell of a lot more than we do, you're gonna end up with problems. Also, based on my experience, demand is very high and there's no reason you, a legit college, would go through the hassle of dealing with international student regulations and bullshit when you could just draw off the waitlist of people who already have status in Canada. Therefore, the colleges who are taking most of the international students are especially likely to be doing it on a bad-faith basis.
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# ? Jan 22, 2024 21:43 |
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PT6A posted:Because universities are somewhat selective with the students they admit. I agree bona fide career colleges would probably be okay, but unless we start regulating them a hell of a lot more than we do, you're gonna end up with problems. Also, based on my experience, demand is very high and there's no reason you, a legit college, would go through the hassle of dealing with international student regulations and bullshit when you could just draw off the waitlist of people who already have status in Canada. Therefore, the colleges who are taking most of the international students are especially likely to be doing it on a bad-faith basis. You would go with international students because of the economic circumstances that the province has created with its funding and tuition models for public colleges, at least in Ontario—exactly as the auditor was cited as saying in the article.
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# ? Jan 22, 2024 21:51 |
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# ? Jun 2, 2024 21:14 |
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Canada's basket weaving sector is about to take a huge hit. Curious to hear all the workarounds that get figured out.
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# ? Jan 23, 2024 00:12 |