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Crows Turn Off
Jan 7, 2008


Eric Cantonese posted:

We probably should, but it will be depressing.
SCOTUS 2024: it will be depressing

The average person needs to understand that overturning Roe with Dobbs was not the end goal. They have a lot more changes to make to turn this into a Christofascist country.

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Milosh
Oct 14, 2000
Forum Veteran
Yeah it's going to be a terrible year. I need to stop reading the news.

Lumpy
Apr 26, 2002

La! La! La! Laaaa!



College Slice

Jaxyon posted:

USCE 2024: Somehow, an even worse food derail than usual

USCE 2024: Food derail: still better than morality of voting chat

Inglonias
Mar 7, 2013

I WILL PUT THIS FLAG ON FREAKING EVERYTHING BECAUSE IT IS SYMBOLIC AS HELL SOMEHOW

haveblue posted:

Speaking of Federalist Society priorities, should we talk about how judging from this morning's arguments the court is probably definitely going to overturn Chevron deference and throw the administrative state into chaos?

how do I leave the lovely Deus Ex future?

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012

Tatsuta Age posted:

I think the judges and everyone else know the Democrats are too chickenshit to actually use that kind of power though?

This.

If tomorrow the risen soul of Abraham Lincoln, Jesus Christ, Mohammed and Ghandi all popped up and gave the Dems both the ability and the moral dispensation to just erase Trump and the Maga GOP, Pelosi would go "But we NEED a strong Republican Party", Joe would remember what fun times he had with segregationists in the 1960s, some failson consultant would throw out a paper saying that having Trump and the zealots around is actually -good- for that year's intended results....

...and within two months every university campus would be Whites-only and liberals would be in camps, blaming it all on Rashida Tlaib.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

PharmerBoy
Jul 21, 2008
That sure is a fun alternate reality you've made up and gotten mad about. Got anything that actually happened?

Gripweed
Nov 8, 2018

PharmerBoy posted:

That sure is a fun alternate reality you've made up and gotten mad about. Got anything that actually happened?

Does the failure to expel any of the House Representatives associated with Jan6 count?

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

Sephyr posted:

This.

If tomorrow the risen soul of Abraham Lincoln, Jesus Christ, Mohammed and Ghandi all popped up and gave the Dems both the ability and the moral dispensation to just erase Trump and the Maga GOP, Pelosi would go "But we NEED a strong Republican Party", Joe would remember what fun times he had with segregationists in the 1960s, some failson consultant would throw out a paper saying that having Trump and the zealots around is actually -good- for that year's intended results....

...and within two months every university campus would be Whites-only and liberals would be in camps, blaming it all on Rashida Tlaib.

This is wild. First Pelosi's comments were taken out of context, erasing trump and the maga gop is actually more inline with what Pelosi was urging, for the GOP to stop being held captive to its extremists so work can be done again. I'm not sure Ghandi would agree with you either, it seems weird to bring up Jesus as well, I don't think they're very relevant to the US political situation. Lincoln is closer but actually if you look at it historically I think Lincoln and Biden are kinda similar, Lincoln didn't want to have to fight the confederacy, his main priority was keeping the union together and almost certain was probably still friends with some confederates as well regardless of the war.

It is true and unfortunate that there's a will with the Dems to do good things and take risks, but it is the case that in many cases there are in fact risks and not entirely unreasonable that there's heel dragging. DC & PR statehood should've been rammed through, but Simena and Manchin were likewise never going to let themselves be completely sidestepped and made political irrelevant like that.

Like its a good thing the US is a democracy and not a dictatorship that can just arrest people, which is what you're suggesting dems do?

Fart Amplifier
Apr 12, 2003

Gripweed posted:

Does the failure to expel any of the House Representatives associated with Jan6 count?

The dems don't and did not have the power to do that

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

Fart Amplifier posted:

The dems don't and did not have the power to do that

You need a 2/3's majority yeah and the GOP was not going to do that; and I'm not sure if there's enough evidence to use the 14th on like two House Reps.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Inglonias posted:

how do I leave the lovely Deus Ex future?
Is soy food ultraprocessed?

Fister Roboto
Feb 21, 2008

Raenir Salazar posted:


Like its a good thing the US is a democracy and not a dictatorship that can just arrest people

So, this is just flat out not true. The US "just arrests" people all the time, though. For extremely petty crimes like shoplifting or selling loose cigarettes or using a fake check. It often kills them in the process. And if they're not killed, they get thrown in jail while they await a trial for months or years, and then get forced into a bullshit plea deal because the entire system is stacked against them. I'm not saying this is a good thing, but it's evidence that the state absolutely can arrest anyone that it wants to. It's just that who it wants to arrest is almost always poor black and brown people. The US would at least be consistent in its application of the law if Donald Trump had been in a jail cell on January 21st. But instead, we get swift and brutal retribution for the lower class, and endless deference for the upper class even as they seek to overthrow the state itself. What else can you call that but a dictatorship of the white bourgeoisie?

Not to mention our actions on the international stage, which has been to foment right-wing coups to overthrow their democratically elected leaders. The US is totally cool with making other countries dictatorships.

Let's look at the case of Jeanine Anez, former president of Bolivia. She came to power in an illegal coup, and oversaw multiple massacres of protestors against her. Three months after she was voted out of office, she was arrested and charged with conspiracy, sedition, and terrorism. She was detained for 15 months awaiting her trial, and is now serving a 10 year sentence.

Should Bolivia have done this? Or would it have been more "democratic" to let her go free to organize another coup? Is this the act of a dictatorship, or the act of a democracy that recognizes that in order to protect democracy, you have to bring swift justice to those who subvert democracy?

selec
Sep 6, 2003

Fister Roboto posted:

So, this is just flat out not true. The US "just arrests" people all the time, though. For extremely petty crimes like shoplifting or selling loose cigarettes or using a fake check. It often kills them in the process. And if they're not killed, they get thrown in jail while they await a trial for months or years, and then get forced into a bullshit plea deal because the entire system is stacked against them. I'm not saying this is a good thing, but it's evidence that the state absolutely can arrest anyone that it wants to. It's just that who it wants to arrest is almost always poor black and brown people. The US would at least be consistent in its application of the law if Donald Trump had been in a jail cell on January 21st. But instead, we get swift and brutal retribution for the lower class, and endless deference for the upper class even as they seek to overthrow the state itself. What else can you call that but a dictatorship of the white bourgeoisie?

Not to mention our actions on the international stage, which has been to foment right-wing coups to overthrow their democratically elected leaders. The US is totally cool with making other countries dictatorships.

Let's look at the case of Jeanine Anez, former president of Bolivia. She came to power in an illegal coup, and oversaw multiple massacres of protestors against her. Three months after she was voted out of office, she was arrested and charged with conspiracy, sedition, and terrorism. She was detained for 15 months awaiting her trial, and is now serving a 10 year sentence.

Should Bolivia have done this? Or would it have been more "democratic" to let her go free to organize another coup? Is this the act of a dictatorship, or the act of a democracy that recognizes that in order to protect democracy, you have to bring swift justice to those who subvert democracy?

I’ve BEEN saying this! Deference to rich criminals up to and inclusive of sedition is just American tradition. It would be out of character for us as a nation for Trump and his allies to be meaningfully punished.

-We let southern oligarchs just run rampant in the antebellum and after all the appeasement and then the deaths and destruction required to put down the insurrection we lost the Reconstruction because there was no will to punish the class of people who foisted the whole catastrophe on the nation. If you don’t hang the white leaders of the rebellion, what do you get instead? A hundred plus years of lynching black people.

-Nobody was punished for the Business Plot, and to say it was meaningfully investigated is a stretch. So what happens? Well, a descendant of one of the oligarchs who wanted to overthrow FDR goes on to work for the CIA overthrowing democracies, then becomes president, and his son goes on to be president too. A whole oligarchical traitor dynasty.

We are a nation who respects and shows enormous deference to our oligarchs. They get away with this poo poo because they have to be allowed to, if they weren’t the system wouldn’t work as intended.

Dull Fork
Mar 22, 2009

Raenir Salazar posted:

It is true and unfortunate that there's a will with the Dems to do good things and take risks, but it is the case that in many cases there are in fact risks and not entirely unreasonable that there's heel dragging. DC & PR statehood should've been rammed through, but Simena and Manchin were likewise never going to let themselves be completely sidestepped and made political irrelevant like that.

I'm 100% positive there are pressure points that could have been used to get Manchin and Sinema to vote for PR and DC statehood, but people get upset seeing the sausage get made. The problem is that of the actions that could be taken to force those two to vote for that (or to get ANY result out of politicians), none would pass the standard Democrat's decorum poisoned mind. Thus we get the poo poo government we have, as opposed to doing some 'unpleasant' things to get a better loving world. Meanwhile those against us have no such qualms about doing the dirty tricks of politics. Its infuriating.

socialsecurity
Aug 30, 2003

Dull Fork posted:

I'm 100% positive there are pressure points that could have been used to get Manchin and Sinema to vote for PR and DC statehood, but people get upset seeing the sausage get made. The problem is that of the actions that could be taken to force those two to vote for that (or to get ANY result out of politicians), none would pass the standard Democrat's decorum poisoned mind. Thus we get the poo poo government we have, as opposed to doing some 'unpleasant' things to get a better loving world. Meanwhile those against us have no such qualms about doing the dirty tricks of politics. Its infuriating.

What are those pressure points?

selec
Sep 6, 2003

socialsecurity posted:

What are those pressure points?

You do them like Madison Cawthorn. If you have members of your caucus who gently caress up the party agenda, and you don’t have the ability or the will to do them like Madison Cawthorn, you are definitionally unfit for the job, or lying about them loving up the party agenda.

If you can’t get rid of or control a problem when that’s part of your job in party leadership then we need better leadership.

I think there are plenty of historical examples of how problematic people have been dealt with in the past in DC, let’s look to those successful examples.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Fister Roboto posted:

So, this is just flat out not true. The US "just arrests" people all the time, though. For extremely petty crimes like shoplifting or selling loose cigarettes or using a fake check. It often kills them in the process. And if they're not killed, they get thrown in jail while they await a trial for months or years, and then get forced into a bullshit plea deal because the entire system is stacked against them. I'm not saying this is a good thing, but it's evidence that the state absolutely can arrest anyone that it wants to. It's just that who it wants to arrest is almost always poor black and brown people. The US would at least be consistent in its application of the law if Donald Trump had been in a jail cell on January 21st. But instead, we get swift and brutal retribution for the lower class, and endless deference for the upper class even as they seek to overthrow the state itself. What else can you call that but a dictatorship of the white bourgeoisie?
...
The US has the bail system and people that aren't considered to be a flight risk and can post bail stay out of jail until conviction. So it's perfectly consistent in application of law to not have him sitting in a cell.

The "swift" and "brutal" retribution to the poor lower class fasitis is taking over two year even thoug it's much, much easier to prove the alleged crimes than a massive conspiracy.


socialsecurity posted:

What are those pressure points?
From previous simular discussions, probably blackmail

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Dull Fork posted:

I'm 100% positive there are pressure points that could have been used to get Manchin and Sinema to vote for PR and DC statehood, but people get upset seeing the sausage get made. The problem is that of the actions that could be taken to force those two to vote for that (or to get ANY result out of politicians), none would pass the standard Democrat's decorum poisoned mind. Thus we get the poo poo government we have, as opposed to doing some 'unpleasant' things to get a better loving world. Meanwhile those against us have no such qualms about doing the dirty tricks of politics. Its infuriating.

What pressure points do you have in mind, besides the usual one that always gets brought up in these conversations? It's generally not easy to force a senator to vote against their will.

Usually when this topic comes up, the suggestion I see is having the president order sham investigations and fishing expeditions against Manchin's daughter in hopes that maybe they'll find some crimes they can threaten to prosecute if Manchin doesn't vote the way they want. I hope that's not what you're thinking of, because summarizing the objections to that as "decorum poisoning" is just plain dismissive.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.
This kind of conversation always requires a magical unspecified blackmail because the goal of it is to point out the ineptitude of Democrats.

But what if there isn't a blackmail? Or a pressure point?

selec
Sep 6, 2003

Main Paineframe posted:

What pressure points do you have in mind, besides the usual one that always gets brought up in these conversations? It's generally not easy to force a senator to vote against their will.

Usually when this topic comes up, the suggestion I see is having the president order sham investigations and fishing expeditions against Manchin's daughter in hopes that maybe they'll find some crimes they can threaten to prosecute if Manchin doesn't vote the way they want. I hope that's not what you're thinking of, because summarizing the objections to that as "decorum poisoning" is just plain dismissive.

You don’t have the president order it, that’s silly. You have an in-person conversation with a loaded, motivated donor, you have no paper trail, and that donor hires a firm packed with ex-Mossad blackmailers or similarly situated goons. The loaded donor doesn’t do it themselves, they typically have a seasoned fixer like Davis Boies, who knows how to get away with poo poo like this, and then he’ll go and hire your dirt diggers and life-fucker-uppers at a firm like Black Cube. With the really big firms the answer to “how much can you dig up?” is a question of “how much are you willing to spend?”. They’ll get into your phones, they’ll be in your email if you can afford that level of service.

You don’t have the president order it though, they have learned SOME things since Watergate. You need layers of plausible deniability.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
Plus then you just end up in a situation where congresspeople are allowed to commit crimes so long as they ally with the president, which is... not an improvement on today

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012

Raenir Salazar posted:


Like its a good thing the US is a democracy and not a dictatorship that can just arrest people, which is what you're suggesting dems do?

I'm not suggesting the dems do anything, as I consider them both incapable and unwilling to effect any degree political change. The Parlamentarian would be sad and we can't have that.

As for just prosecuting and arresting people, we know that's for dangerous cases like this terrorist:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/opin...ll/72236928007/

"Chris Avell, pastor of Dad's Place in Bryan, Ohio, was arraigned in court last Thursday because he kept his church open 24/7 to provide warmth to the unhoused.

Ohio law prohibits residential use in first-floor buildings in a business district. Since the church is zoned as a Central Business, the building is restricted from allowing people to eat or sleep on the property.

“This is how I worship my God, and I just want to be able to worship my God,” Avell said."

celadon
Jan 2, 2023

haveblue posted:

Plus then you just end up in a situation where congresspeople are allowed to commit crimes so long as they ally with the president, which is... not an improvement on today

I dunno I’d personally rather live in a state headed by career criminals all blackmailing eachother that followed all the policies of the Democratic Party platform compared to one led by perfectly upright citizens that followed all the Republican platform policies.

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

celadon posted:

I dunno I’d personally rather live in a state headed by career criminals all blackmailing eachother that followed all the policies of the Democratic Party platform compared to one led by perfectly upright citizens that followed all the Republican platform policies.

Historically "what if we had a bunch of criminals running the government for the good of the common man" has a worse track record than "what if we had a good king instead of a democracy?"

selec
Sep 6, 2003

Killer robot posted:

Historically "what if we had a bunch of criminals running the government for the good of the common man" has a worse track record than "what if we had a good king instead of a democracy?"

If you narrowly define crimes so that blatant insider trading and bribery are no longer crimes then I guess we don’t have to deal with the “what if we had a bunch of criminals running the government for the good of the ruling class” problem, so that’s good that we definitely don’t have that problem because we decided those things aren’t crimes.

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

celadon posted:

I dunno I’d personally rather live in a state headed by career criminals all blackmailing eachother that followed all the policies of the Democratic Party platform compared to one led by perfectly upright citizens that followed all the Republican platform policies.

Looking at the ridiculous corruption in politics in cities like NYC and Chicago, I would strongly disagree with this statement. I can’t imagine how corrupt politicians does not inevitably end up as being self-serving

selec
Sep 6, 2003

Kalit posted:

Looking at the ridiculous corruption in politics in cities like NYC and Chicago, I would strongly disagree with this statement. I can’t imagine how corrupt politicians does not inevitably end up as being self-serving

They don’t meet the criteria because they aren’t serving the party goals, they are serving land developers.

The Top G
Jul 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

Main Paineframe posted:

What pressure points do you have in mind, besides the usual one that always gets brought up in these conversations? It's generally not easy to force a senator to vote against their will.

Usually when this topic comes up, the suggestion I see is having the president order sham investigations and fishing expeditions against Manchin's daughter in hopes that maybe they'll find some crimes they can threaten to prosecute if Manchin doesn't vote the way they want. I hope that's not what you're thinking of, because summarizing the objections to that as "decorum poisoning" is just plain dismissive.

I’m sure our elected officials could think of some kind of pressure to be applied, the specifics don’t really matter. For some recent examples, see former Rep Cawthorn and whatever Pelosi told AOC to bring her to tears and to change her vote on Iron Dome funding:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8_00JqPlOQ

socialsecurity
Aug 30, 2003

mobby_6kl posted:

From previous simular discussions, probably blackmail

Seems you are correct, kinda sad everything this gets brought up people act like it's some secret strategy to winning and those stupid Dems just aren't smart enough to blackmail their party members into voting how they want like this is a foolproof plan.

The Top G
Jul 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy
^^^Democrats are absolutely smart enough to use “leverage” to get the votes they want, see AOC and her Iron Dome vote. When they don’t use this leverage, it’s because they aren’t interested in obtaining that particular outcome :eng101:

Kalit posted:

Looking at the ridiculous corruption in politics in cities like NYC and Chicago, I would strongly disagree with this statement. I can’t imagine how corrupt politicians does not inevitably end up as being self-serving

:confused: what’s unique about the corruption in these two cities? Which American cities are not corrupt?

The Top G fucked around with this message at 20:00 on Jan 19, 2024

celadon
Jan 2, 2023

Killer robot posted:

Historically "what if we had a bunch of criminals running the government for the good of the common man" has a worse track record than "what if we had a good king instead of a democracy?"

Didnt the elimination of earmarks drastically reduce the ability of the government to function as it became much harder to put pressure on recalcitrant politicians? Did lowering the number of opportunities for graft make things better or worse, overall? Like a single government shutdown that could have been avoided by leaning on someone’s dam building project probably does more economic damage than years of graft would.

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

selec posted:

They don’t meet the criteria because they aren’t serving the party goals, they are serving land developers.

I’m definitely not even going to agree with your claim. But AFAIK, organizations like Tammany Hall started off by primarily serving party goals/social activists/etc over land developers

Kalit fucked around with this message at 20:01 on Jan 19, 2024

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
Earmarks aren't corruption.

Timmy Age 6
Jul 23, 2011

Lobster says "mrow?"

Ramrod XTreme

Fister Roboto posted:

So, this is just flat out not true. The US "just arrests" people all the time, though. For extremely petty crimes like shoplifting or selling loose cigarettes or using a fake check. It often kills them in the process. And if they're not killed, they get thrown in jail while they await a trial for months or years, and then get forced into a bullshit plea deal because the entire system is stacked against them. I'm not saying this is a good thing, but it's evidence that the state absolutely can arrest anyone that it wants to. It's just that who it wants to arrest is almost always poor black and brown people. The US would at least be consistent in its application of the law if Donald Trump had been in a jail cell on January 21st. But instead, we get swift and brutal retribution for the lower class, and endless deference for the upper class even as they seek to overthrow the state itself. What else can you call that but a dictatorship of the white bourgeoisie?

Not to mention our actions on the international stage, which has been to foment right-wing coups to overthrow their democratically elected leaders. The US is totally cool with making other countries dictatorships.

Let's look at the case of Jeanine Anez, former president of Bolivia. She came to power in an illegal coup, and oversaw multiple massacres of protestors against her. Three months after she was voted out of office, she was arrested and charged with conspiracy, sedition, and terrorism. She was detained for 15 months awaiting her trial, and is now serving a 10 year sentence.

Should Bolivia have done this? Or would it have been more "democratic" to let her go free to organize another coup? Is this the act of a dictatorship, or the act of a democracy that recognizes that in order to protect democracy, you have to bring swift justice to those who subvert democracy?

I feel obligated to point out the distinction between federal and local governments here - the "just arrest for petty crimes" tendency is not really something the federal government does to anywhere near the same extent as localities can. Considering this is in the context of "just arrest the members of Congress you don't like," that's an important distinction.

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

celadon posted:

Didnt the elimination of earmarks drastically reduce the ability of the government to function as it became much harder to put pressure on recalcitrant politicians? Did lowering the number of opportunities for graft make things better or worse, overall? Like a single government shutdown that could have been avoided by leaning on someone’s dam building project probably does more economic damage than years of graft would.

In some ways, yes. But its also the case that federal politics isn't nearly as local or retail as it used to be. A population making their decisions by listening to national talk radio or reading twitter or w/e is generally not one that is paying attention to whether or not a dam got funded.

selec
Sep 6, 2003

socialsecurity posted:

Seems you are correct, kinda sad everything this gets brought up people act like it's some secret strategy to winning and those stupid Dems just aren't smart enough to blackmail their party members into voting how they want like this is a foolproof plan.

It’s done in secret, but it’s not a secret that politicians will and have historically done really greasy poo poo to get things done.

So if we’re seeing these people who ostensibly stand in the way of getting things the party ostensibly wants to do, there seem to be a few obvious possibilities, and “party leadership is inept” and “party leadership doesn’t actually much care for those issues” are both reasonable conclusions to reach.

I can’t claim to know what they have or haven’t tried, and honestly it’s not my job to know, in the most competently executed scenarios nobody would know what got the outcome we wanted because nobody would’ve known this person was even opposed to the policy in the first place. Then you go to less and less slick but still successful possible outcomes, and then near the bottom of the list when you’re into unsuccessful outcomes territory you’ll find us, with the leadership we have today.

If they can’t get it done one way or the other, they’re just not up to the task of leading. It doesn’t do a great job of distinguishing them from the GOP in a purely organizational competence and coherence sense—they can’t get their poo poo together either. Maybe there are larger forces at work that have decoupled what the party leadership wants from the base, maybe it’s just incompetence, it’s probably a mix of those and other things too. But you can’t discount incompetence when you have things a huge chunk of the base want to see fixed and we keep returning to That Darn Joe Manchin. Sounds like you got a major issue you’re not addressing if it comes up like this on such big issues, assuming they really are big issues to the average Dem voter and the party leadership and whoever it is you think party leadership takes their cues from.

celadon
Jan 2, 2023

James Garfield posted:

Earmarks aren't corruption.

They’re certainly a vector for corruption and the popular conception of earmarks and pork barrel spending is heavily linked to politicians creating unnecessary spending in their own districts for personal gain.

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

The Top G posted:

:confused: what’s unique about the corruption in these two cities? Which American cities are not corrupt?

I feel like they’re on a whole different level of corruption. That’s not meaning that other cities don’t have any corruption, of course

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

TheDeadlyShoe posted:

In some ways, yes. But its also the case that federal politics isn't nearly as local or retail as it used to be. A population making their decisions by listening to national talk radio or reading twitter or w/e is generally not one that is paying attention to whether or not a dam got funded.

There's a good argument that a major reason for this is BECAUSE earmark graft got killed. Of course federal politics isn't nearly as local after decades of no longer having the major way federal politics were localized around.

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L. Ron DeSantis
Nov 10, 2009

There is some potentially good news on the vibecession front:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/01/19/economy-sentiment-biden-inflation/

Washington Post posted:

Economic vibes are finally improving, consumer sentiment surges
Americans say they’re feeling better about the economy than they have in years. That could be good news for Biden.
By Abha Bhattarai and Jeff Stein
Updated January 19, 2024 at 2:09 p.m. EST|Published January 19, 2024 at 12:32 p.m. EST

It appears Americans are finally feeling better about the economy.

Consumer sentiment, a window into the nation’s financial mood, jumped 13 percent in January to its highest level since mid-2021, reflecting optimism that inflation is easing and incomes are rising, according to a closely-watched survey by the University of Michigan. Since November, consumer sentiment has risen 29 percent, marking the largest two-month increase in more than 30 years.


Gas prices, often a key driver of sentiment, have fallen 40 percent since June 2022, to just over $3 a gallon. Weekly jobless claims are at their lowest level in over a year. And sales of cars, clothing and sporting goods all picked up during the holidays, as consumers felt confident enough to keep spending.

“We’re seeing a continuation of the surge in sentiment we saw at the end of last year,” said Joanne W. Hsu, an economist at the University of Michigan and director of its consumer surveys. “If anyone was wondering, 'Was December a fluke? It is absolutely clear now that it wasn’t. This is a sign that consumers are feeling better. Their confidence has come back.”



That jump is fueling hope that the U.S. economy — and Americans’ perception of it — may be turning a corner after months of inflation-related unease. Rising sentiment among both Democrats and Republicans comes at a critical moment for the Biden administration, which has struggled to convince voters that its economic policies are making their lives better ahead of November’s presidential election.

“At a cerebral level, voters may still say Biden mismanaged the economy,” said Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. policy and politics at Wolfe Research, and an economic policy staffer to Biden during the Obama administration. “But the dissipation of their really intense personal dissatisfaction with the economy still really helps at the level of the political context.”

Democrats are cautiously optimistic that improving views of the economy will boost President Biden’s chances in the 2024 presidential election, after months in which inflation and voter fury over the economy appeared to be an intractable political problem.

The White House has so far reacted cautiously to surveys showing improvement, not sure if they reflect a durable shift or statistical noise. But that is starting to change. On Friday, the administration pointed to improving sentiment as a sign that its policies are “delivering results that more Americans are feeling.”

“President Biden is making progress lowering inflation while maintaining a strong job market,” Jared Bernstein, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, said in a statement. “We have more work to do, but we’re on the right path.”



By many measures, the economy is on solid ground. Workers have jobs, wages are growing faster than inflation and families have continued to spend heartily. But fast-rising prices have soured many Americans’ outlook, leading to a disconnect between what the economy looks like on paper and how families are experiencing it.

So far, the uptick in economic sentiment has not revived Biden’s flagging poll numbers or voter perceptions of his economic management. Those perceptions could be crucial in a reelection matchup with Donald Trump, who continues to receive strong marks from voters for his handling of the economy. But Biden could narrow the gap if the positive outlook persists, not just for a few months but over the rest of this year, analysts say.

“There is still a debate on the internet about whether consumer sentiment is actually good, and we should listen to families who say they’re struggling," said Elizabeth Pancotti, strategic adviser at the Groundwork Collaborative, a left-leaning think tank. “But I think it’s clearly getting better and we’re on a pretty good path for November.”



The changing economic circumstances could complicate the GOP’s general election message, but for now conservatives remain confident Biden is vulnerable on inflation and economic angst.

“The economy has clearly gotten better over the last year … No doubt about that,” said Stephen Moore, the founder of the Committee to Unleash Prosperity, a conservative group, and an outside economic adviser to Trump.


Still, Moore and other economists, caution against thinking this is a done deal. Although consumer sentiment has improved dramatically in the last couple of months, it remains about 7 percent lower than the historic average, Hsu said.

“Consumers are feeling much better than they were a few months ago, but that still doesn’t mean they’re feeling great or super optimistic,” she said. “This isn’t a roaring 2024 — at least not yet.”

Still, there are signs that more Americans feel the worst is behind them. Jake Ficek, an electric lineman near Bloomington, Ill., says he’s feeling better about his finances than he was a few months ago. He’s making more than ever — nearly $57 an hour — and has found new ways to deal with inflation.

He’s started buying entire cows, pigs and chickens from a local butcher to save money on meat, and tills a nearby vegetable garden in exchange for free tomatoes, lettuce and herbs. As a result, Ficek says, his overall quality of life has improved: He bought a new boat in December and spent the holidays in Mexico with his girlfriend.

“A lot of the time, it feels like the economy is different in the real world than what they’re telling you,” Ficek, 27, said. “But I feel like that’s changing."
It's not helping Biden's poll numbers yet, but if this keeps up it can only help his chances. There is still the age issue and the border as major weaknesses. Nothing can really be done about the former, and the Republicans don't actually want to do anything about the latter as long as a Dem is in office.

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