- Henchman of Santa
- Aug 21, 2010
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Matt Millen was also a terrible GM and it helped get his rear end fired.
If two of those guys hadn't been headcases they would've been good picks!
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Jan 19, 2024 20:16
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May 24, 2024 16:11
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- The Puppy Bowl
- Jan 31, 2013
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A dog, in the house.
*woof*
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4 QBs
12 O-line
47 WRs
These are some weird guesses.
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Jan 19, 2024 21:14
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- Ornery and Hornery
- Oct 22, 2020
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Love every time CB Cooper DeJean is listed, draftniks have to emphasize that he could also play safety.
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Jan 19, 2024 21:15
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- Doltos
- Dec 28, 2005
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🤌🤌🤌
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It's more because Iowa's DB set up is a lot of off ball rotation to cover deep halves. DeJean's tape is full of him dropping back to a safety position. He's also a good tackler. I mean there might be a racism element there but I see plenty of other DBs get slotted into the safety role with similar tape.
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Jan 19, 2024 21:24
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- BlindSite
- Feb 8, 2009
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I can see the merits of the Chargers taking another WR in the first especially one of Nabers calibre. I think if this season has taught us anything, its that its probably a pretty good idea to give your young QB receivers. A good WR/QB combo covers up a lot of deficiencies, and without them it's all people see.
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Jan 19, 2024 22:32
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- Grozz Nuy
- Feb 21, 2008
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Welcome to Moonside.
Wecomel to Soonmide.
Moonwel ot cosidme.
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All I want is for the Niners to trade up to the late teens/early 20s and take Taliese Fuaga. They have 11 picks in this draft now that the Lance/CMC trades are all wrapped up and they just don't have that many available spots on the roster; they should really get aggressive in this draft and consolidate those picks for better prospects, and OL is one of the few places that could use some upgrades.
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Jan 20, 2024 10:06
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- Omnikin
- May 29, 2007
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Press 'E' for Medic
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I just want the Jets to get a capable tackle, and I think the draft is setting up in such a way that being pick 10 isn't a terrible spot to be. Alt/Fash/Fuaga/Latham, I'm comfortable with the lot
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Jan 20, 2024 15:58
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- Doltos
- Dec 28, 2005
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🤌🤌🤌
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There's also Mims, Barton, Guyton, Fautanu, Patrick Paul, and my sneaky favorite in Jordan Morgan. The guy is so fluid and athletic he seems like the perfect fit in a zone scheme. He probably moves the best out of every OL in the draft.
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Jan 20, 2024 18:06
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- Omnikin
- May 29, 2007
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Press 'E' for Medic
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There's also Mims, Barton, Guyton, Fautanu, Patrick Paul, and my sneaky favorite in Jordan Morgan. The guy is so fluid and athletic he seems like the perfect fit in a zone scheme. He probably moves the best out of every OL in the draft.
Yeah I 100% defer to y'all on the listings. I'm just happy it's playing out like this. And excited for senior bowl/combine
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Jan 20, 2024 19:06
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- A Sneaker Broker
- Feb 14, 2020
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Daily Dose of Internet Brain Rot
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I just want the Jets to get a capable tackle, and I think the draft is setting up in such a way that being pick 10 isn't a terrible spot to be. Alt/Fash/Fuaga/Latham, I'm comfortable with the lot
Amarius Mims.
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Jan 20, 2024 20:27
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- Diva Cupcake
- Aug 15, 2005
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Yeah I 100% defer to y'all on the listings. I'm just happy it's playing out like this. And excited for senior bowl/combine
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Jan 20, 2024 21:56
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- Ornery and Hornery
- Oct 22, 2020
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So many good tackle and guard prospects, seems plausible to get decent day 1 starters even well into the second round.
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Jan 20, 2024 21:58
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- Ornery and Hornery
- Oct 22, 2020
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I would like seattle to get 1 all-pro center and 1 all-pro guard please, side of fries no Mayo.
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Jan 20, 2024 21:58
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- Amy Pole Her
- Jun 17, 2002
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Uh yeah hi I’ll have what he’s ^ having ty
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Jan 20, 2024 21:59
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- A Sneaker Broker
- Feb 14, 2020
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Daily Dose of Internet Brain Rot
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Jets love drafting Senior Bowl guys and Ulbrich is the head coach of one of the teams. I imagine they’ll focus a lot of their scouting there.
For good reason, many more teams are treating the Senior Bowl like hallowed ground. The Packers have built most of their starting lineup through the Senior Bowl.
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Jan 20, 2024 22:06
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- Soul Glo
- Aug 27, 2003
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Just let it shine through
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Excited for the Titans to draft Joe Alt tbqh
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Jan 20, 2024 23:13
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- A Sneaker Broker
- Feb 14, 2020
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Daily Dose of Internet Brain Rot
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Alright, who's the best safety in this draft? And why is it Tyler Nubin?
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Jan 21, 2024 07:48
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- SKULL.GIF
- Jan 20, 2017
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[... smallest NFL draft class ...]
Acme had a decent write up on this: https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2024/1/19/24044307/2024-nfl-draft-fewest-underclassmen-declare-in-over-a-decade Basically, the changes to rookie contracts are finally being offset by the changes to NIL, and we're returning to equilibrium.
The rookie wage scale, ironically, encouraged players to leave school as soon as possible to hit their 2nd contracts as early as possible (since, no matter how good you are in college, your earnings for your first few seasons would be limited by the NFL regardless). But now with NIL, there's not really as much of an incentive to do that anymore for anyone who isn't a top talent, so they're sticking around a little bit longer. Toss in some COVID eligibility expiration and now we have the smallest underclassman draft in a decade.
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25237152/Screen_Shot_2024_01_19_at_12.02.20_PM.png)
quote:58 early entrants is the fewest number of underclass declarations since 2011, the first season in which the league implemented the rookie wage scale — which limited how much money top draft picks could ask for from franchises. From 2011 to 2021, the number of early entrants steadily rose to 130 in 2021. Then, the numbers came crashing down.
Why? First of all, there was a backlog of players who continued their eligibility in college football due to the NCAA’s ruling that the 2020 “Covid season” would not count against student-athletes’ career clocks. Secondly, name, imagine and likeness (NIL) was approved by the NCAA in July of 2021, allowing student-athletes to profit from their performance on the field — even if it’s vaguely masked as simply the ability to market themselves.
The bar chart above shows the year-by-year volume of early entrants into the NFL draft. As you can see, the numbers were fairly flat from 2004 to 2010 before a steady increase in declarations from 2011-2021. In the mind of athletes, and agents, what’s the point of staying in school if the NFL limits your earning opportunity over the first four years of your professional contract? The goal then changed to second contracts in the league.
There was a dramatic drop between 2021 (130 entrants) to 2022 (73), though, largely due to NIL. Ever since, that number has decreased to the 58-player pool that was announced today.
Out of the 58 players to declare “early”, 50 of them are ranked among the top 126 players on the consensus draft boards’ rankings. Long gone are the days when players were told to declare if they had any chance of being drafted by the NFL, simply for the sake of a signing bonus. Now, the vast majority of underclassmen to declare are expected to be drafted within the first four rounds of the draft — the same standard as it was around a decade ago.
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Jan 21, 2024 17:48
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- Impossibly Perfect Sphere
- Nov 6, 2002
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They wasted Luanne on Lucky!
She could of have been so much more but the writers just didn't care!
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https://twitter.com/BenAxelrod/status/1749246938183053682?t=VIli7ZwRVhQs2cKHw1hRFQ&s=19
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Jan 22, 2024 02:57
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- Diva Cupcake
- Aug 15, 2005
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That’s not really true. There were more draftniks who thought Josh was QB1 than Baker leading up to it. Most thought Darnold.
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Jan 22, 2024 03:57
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- kidcoelacanth
- Sep 23, 2009
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i distinctly remember being very surprised by the baker pick at the time
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Jan 22, 2024 04:01
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- BlindSite
- Feb 8, 2009
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I remember a lot of people being split on Baker but I don't recall many people at least in tff who were overly critical of it.
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Jan 22, 2024 04:22
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- Doltos
- Dec 28, 2005
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🤌🤌🤌
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Lamar was my #1
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Jan 22, 2024 04:43
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- Grozz Nuy
- Feb 21, 2008
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Welcome to Moonside.
Wecomel to Soonmide.
Moonwel ot cosidme.
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Josh Allen was not good in college and played at loving Wyoming, he was drafted purely on tools and there are a million of those guys who bust in the NFL. It obviously worked out for Buffalo but let's not pretend that was some obvious slam dunk pick at the time.
Lamar though, that was just good ol' fashioned racism.
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Jan 22, 2024 04:46
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- Doltos
- Dec 28, 2005
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Yeah anyone who had Lamar down as a WR was blatantly not watching his tape.
Josh Allen was hero balling in Wyoming and had poo poo accuracy. The Bills toned that down and made him stay on his feet more through his throwing motion.
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Jan 22, 2024 04:48
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- SKULL.GIF
- Jan 20, 2017
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Josh Allen was not good in college and played at loving Wyoming, he was drafted purely on tools and there are a million of those guys who bust in the NFL. It obviously worked out for Buffalo but let's not pretend that was some obvious slam dunk pick at the time.
Lamar though, that was just good ol' fashioned racism.
re: Josh Allen, I posted a thread a few years back about how the QB scarcity crisis was "solved" and that Allen's development process was a huge clue towards why/how. It wasn't received too well  but it ended on this fantastic/prescient post from TGG discussing game managers vs. "tools" QBs that I think should get eyeballs today, especially after the last few playoff games:
We haven't yelled enough about this thread yet. Allow me to stir the pot
Previously Stated Hypotheses:
- Scheme evolution and retrofitting to meet players has reduced scarcities
- Coaching tools have improved drastically to the point where identifying actual issues is easier
- Halo effect on different traits and elements has skewed the market too much when there are obvious counters readily in place.
I'm going to take a few of these in a different direction, because I just flatly don't think you can ever be rid of quarterback scarcity in the sense that there isn't going to be a bottomless hunger for quarterback talent. In reality, it's going to change the calculus for how teams approach drafting with an existing QB.
Scheme
I think this argument has legitimate merits on a macro level but can be overstated in how it individually suits just one guy. When you look at how Mahomes has developed, Reid effectively tinkered with the system from when he had Vick into something more modern that reflects an offense with the same ability to speed stretch deep and cut routes off over the middle in such a way that it becomes a professional attempt at the Briles Era Baylor system of pace and space with structural pressures. It's also a logical evolution of how Kliff changed the air raid call system to meet what he saw at the pro level. That said, you could drop him in the scheme Kyler's in, the scheme Baker's in, or even the McVay system and have similar per play results. He would run the short concepts Kyler specializes in better, the PA concepts Baker throws to the corner better, or whatever we call the strange west coast stuff that McVay likes. When you have a certain level of raw physical ability in conjunction with a level of accuracy, any scheme becomes an academic exercise in execution. Fit is one of those things that helps you hide weaknesses and occasionally harness strengths, but there's a level of QB where it quite honestly doesn't matter. That's also part of why GMs really like to chase "tools" guys, because they open a possibility for you to change coaches and not have to worry about the QB's fit, even though this backfires frequently. To really get into it though, let's talk offense 101.
When a coach is building an offense, the first question is what type of running they expect to do. That's not to say they don't care about the personnel, quite the opposite--coaches have been very comfortable changing their running schemes over the years far more easily than their passing schemes. Ultimately, the tendency to run a given power/counter/zone game on the ground is mainly a matter of what linemen and backs you can get ahold of, and you marry your play action game to those concepts. For years, that's a problem, because if you only view play action as a constraint play, you inject a bias in the system towards what makes your back's life easier, not necessarily an optimal play. In addition, the other founding question becomes "do we pass or run on x down in y situation?". Successful offenses, more than any other unifying trait, are willing to pass on first down. Why is this important? Think beyond stats for a minute to what the job of a defensive coordinator is first and foremost--coordinating in such a way that an offense becomes one-dimensional and consequently manageable. Saban's goal, explicitly for years, was to eliminate the ability of the other team to run so that they were trapped in the pass game and predictable. Belichick's infamous anti-K gun defense consisted of allowing Thurman Thomas to do whatever he wanted in favor of making Kelly's life terrible. When you preserve the option to pass early, you're injecting uncertainty into early downs the way that 2nd/3rd and short have. So what is play action? It's the same level of potential confounding variable if the defense considers both elements a credible threat. As such, PA is a balancing act for a playcaller between making sure it's an actual constraint against your running plays and also something a QB can consistently execute. When this goes bad, you get things like the Freddie Kitchens offense with the Browns where the inability to consistently pass block forces Mayfield to bail or force the ball out which forces picks or the current Cardinals offense where the running threat is only credible when it's Murray. From that standpoint, the adaptation is less about the need to coddle quarterbacks and more a need to disguise intents better, because defenses are athletic enough to solve pretty much anything that they know is coming.
So what does that lead to for quarterback development? Well, there's a couple elements. One is that "bringing a rookie along" is no longer as simple as "we're going to run 40 times a game" now. You can do it, if you have an insanely optimal line and backfield, but that's not going to be the vast majority of teams picking high. Giving a young QB simpler reads more or less requires them to do one of 3 things now 1. Play Action 2. Constrained reads 3. Isolation Concepts. We covered play action. Constrained reads are the other half of this--think about all those bootlegs you've seen Murray/Mayfield/Watson/Mahomes do over the last few years. Those aren't meant to be full-field plays. The instructions are to focus on essentially half the receiving targets based on when in the play you are and what the defense is showing. Because you change the launch point, you can clear a throwing lane more easily to a guy that might not explicitly be "open" from the pocket. Isolation concepts are a similar thing where you use the spacing of the formation and play to essentially force defenders to declare what they're doing at the snap in the hopes that your QB just gets a hot read and goes. Obviously, you have to mix some "regular" NFL passing plays in there, but simplifying things is less about using vanilla plays than it is about making things obvious, as opposed to 20 years ago when things like learning the initial WCO would mandate you essentially use none of the complexity that makes the offense work while building things out and maybe have a usable offense by year 3 in the system. All that said, those 3 elements are all things that offenses at every level like to focus on now, because easing guys into a new level of competition is a universally liked idea, as is the idea of a play that is hard to defend whether you have rookies or veterans.
Additionally, there's an element here that's made passing easier that has nothing to do with QBs but makes certain things more accessible ina scheme--PI, Defensive holding, and Illegal Hit penalties. Over-the-middle passes don't get guys killed the same way now, and the amount of contact defenders can make before a ball gets to a receiver is far lower which enables things like slant/curl/drag/mills combos far easier to read and utilize. As such, baseline success for everyone goes up, because penalties are always going to be worse odds than chancing whatever a rookie QB puts out on the field.
So, in summary on scheme: Schemes getting more QB friendly probably shouldn't be looked at as an optimizing force for the QB so much as an optimizing force for the rule set and offense as a whole that has good synergy crop of slightly better moving/spread QBs who can handle these plays more.
Coaching Tools
So, this part is half incredibly true and half debatable. The ability to have All-22 and do the Belichick play diagram live from every player's positions objectively does better spatial awareness training than traditional film. In addition, the ability to have more complete offensive information allows you to not only project defensive tendencies better but also self-scout and notice flaws in your own offense more quickly. That said, this is a universal thing for defenses and offenses now. Yes, your average viewer or QB prospect years away from the NFL can get the All-22 cuts now, but that's not going to mean much without play diagrams, rules, and coaching tweaks that go into actually running a play. It's one reason why tape junkies like myself still get things wrong all the time--we don't have the playbooks for these guys to know what's scheme and rule versus what was a coaching adjustment, and we certainly don't know what the offense a guy will be stepping into will do in relation to what's on those film. In the context of learning broadly about the game, this is objectively correct, but it's a bit of an oversimplification to think the democratization of All-22, film, or game footage is making QBs smarter earlier. Film helps show what guys can theoretically do, not always what they're supposed to do or need to do
Now, here's where I think the tools part is completely correct--the ability to go get coaching and coaching clinics from high-end coaches or from individual position gurus is objectively raising the level of coaching one can get at a young age. You can go watch the Sark install clinic on youtube right now, or you can watch Ryan Day's QB clinics, or you can watch Quincy Avery break down mechanics. All of these things teach initial rules, mechanics, and traits of the positions that used to be walled off to specific camps and academies for years. When you talk about programming QBs to execute, this is where there's a huge value add.
So in summary on tools: What we think of from a fan standpoint as a tool isn't always what prepares a guy to step into a system. Being mechanically sound and understanding your playbook matters more than being able to read a defense in terms of initially getting comfortable, because the modern playbook will tell you what to read once you know it.
Halo Effect/Trait Fishing
Scouts/draftniks/recruiting guys at every level love to obsess over marginal utilities because that's what dictates the parameters of what's possible. Herbert is a fascinating concept because I flatly don't know a lot of smart people that got it right with him. His tendencies under pressure at Oregon were a disaster, and the Chargers clearly established a fix to help with that. Whether it's a matter of mental clock, stepping in to throws, confidence, footwork, or a bit of all of them, they got a mechanical and mental set that allowed him to work closer to the potential dictated by his raw physical talents. It's hard to project a guy's ability to get better because the concept of what's a stubborn habit versus something that can be repped out is highly dependent on individual characteristics. Herbert was coming out of a similar situation to Josh Rosen in terms of physical ability, mediocre skill players, and a system that wasn't optimal for them, but Herbert made changes while Rosen didn't. What caused that? It's not apparent on film. The only thing that's apparent on film is the results.
Physical talent is a ceiling for QBs, and the arms race to come that will cause scarcity isn't one of executing a vanilla offense--it's one of constantly trying to raise the offense's theoretical capabilities if we are actually getting smarter/better at teaching. An average QB now may put up better numbers, but having a top 10% guy is still that much more impactful and not something that's going to be shelved. Mental execution can take you to a certain level of confidence, but there's a reason why, if you held all football knowledge, intelligence, and tendencies constant, coaches take the most physically talented guys they can right now, and it's just the fact that they could theoretically do 5% more concepts because of their arm talent. We don't scout mental ability well beyond second guessing passing plays and attempting to dissect if a guy made the right decision or not.
In total? All of this equates to, if anything, just a change in the valuation. Game managers/physically limited/older guys get devalued; tools guys go higher, especially if they're young and/or smart. It's like how RBs only get high draft grades if they're transcendent/capable of doing anything at any time. It won't be that extreme, but that's the concept to follow here.
Bolding on final paragraph from me, for emphasis.
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Jan 22, 2024 04:52
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- Diva Cupcake
- Aug 15, 2005
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I hope Sam Darnold gets a ring before any of them.
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Jan 22, 2024 05:19
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May 24, 2024 16:11
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- Doltos
- Dec 28, 2005
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🤌🤌🤌
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I got it right about Herbert because big cannon
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Jan 22, 2024 05:46
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