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Trazz posted:It's ironic how CSPAM has better political discussion than D&D has You're not really making it better if your posts are just gonna be scintillating commentary like this. Also, I imagine a lot of D&D posters would disagree with you quite strongly.
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Jan 22, 2024 00:28
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Yeah I dunno about that take. But more on topic, I think what really makes this moment hilarious for me is how Ron DeSantis has thrown away everything to run for President and then completely shat the bed. He picked a fight with Disney to sell the idea he's a culture warrior but nobody cared and now have lawsuits against him personally and against the state of Florida for first amendment violations. And you better loving believe they're going to win and get a big payday on Florida taxpayers dime for that second one.
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Jan 22, 2024 00:29
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haveblue posted:Interesting, what did the November 2024 polls say? This made me laugh actually out loud. The best real comparison we can do, obviously, is Jan 2020 v Jan 2024. Second half of Jan 2020, Biden leads Trump by about 48-44: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html Right now, Trump leads Biden about 47-45: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden Given the distance from now to the election and statistical noise, I'd call it "basically the same position as 4 years ago." Which I'd describe as surprisingly poor for Biden considering that he went from challenging the incumbent to being the incumbent.
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Jan 22, 2024 00:36
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Inglonias posted:Everyone in this thread seems pretty confident that Trump couldn't win a general election. Just to be clear, it appears somewhat improbable at this point, but it was also improbable in 2016. Regardless, I'll take it over highly probable. Trazz posted:It's ironic how CSPAM has better political discussion than D&D has Would you mind surfacing an example instead of the content-less driveby? I used to be able to stay on top of LF volume 15 years ago but now I'm all 40, with a job, and seeing 500 new posts if a few hours go by is just an indication that I don't have the time or commitment anymore.
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Jan 22, 2024 00:37
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- I ain't want to read this.
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Jan 22, 2024 00:42
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I'm no poll skewer but I have a really -really- hard time taking current polls seriously after Democrats completely ran roughshod over Republicans just a month and some change in a national election over abortion everywhere except MS. And have been winning every election since 2018. And then the guy who takes full credit for ending abortion is running this year and voters are going to change their minds and vote republican? This isn't to say that they're not important information and Biden absolutely has an image problem, and Dems need to make big promises they intend to deliver. But I'm skeptical of their accuracy. quote:Everyone in this thread seems pretty confident that Trump couldn't win a general election. I'm confident that Trump -can- win a general election. I think him winning by a medium sized football stadium of voters last time would be even smaller this time now that he's a known quantity. And I'm certain he's not winning the popular vote. Nelson Mandingo fucked around with this message at 00:48 on Jan 22, 2024 |
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Jan 22, 2024 00:44
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Nelson Mandingo posted:I'm confident that Trump -can- win a general election. I think him winning by a medium sized football stadium of voters last time would be even smaller this time now that he's a known quantity. And I'm certain he's not winning the popular vote. This is an interesting take, since Biden won only by a medium sized football stadium last time. In fact, his margin of victory in the states that decided the election was even smaller than Hillary's: Council on Foreign Relations posted:But as Andrew Jackson, Samuel Tilden, Grover Cleveland, Al Gore, and Hillary Clinton can all attest, winning the popular vote doesn’t necessarily mean winning the presidency. When you look at the smallest popular vote shift needed to give Trump a victory, the 2020 election was close. Indeed, it was even closer than 2016. If Trump picked up the right mix of 42,921 votes in Arizona (10,457), Georgia (11,779), and Wisconsin (20,682), the Electoral College would have been tied at 269 all. The House would have then decided the election. Republicans will hold the majority of state delegations in the new Congress, and they undoubtedly would have chosen Trump. If Trump had also picked up the one electoral vote in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, which he lost to Biden by 22,091 votes, he would have won the Electoral College outright. Back in 2016, Clinton needed to pick up the right mix of 78,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to win the Electoral College. The kind of outcome you're dismissing is exactly the kind of outcome that could easily happen again, given Biden's historic unpopularity (he's even less popular than Trump these days, after all).
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Jan 22, 2024 00:52
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No republican candidate has won the popular vote in the 21st century. I'm not worried about that. Unfortunately, that also doesn't mean anything 'round these parts. EDIT: Yeah, read the post above mine. It's much better than mine is.
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Jan 22, 2024 00:52
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quote:When you look at the smallest popular vote shift needed to give Trump a victory, the 2020 election was close. Indeed, it was even closer than 2016. If Trump picked up the right mix of 42,921 votes in Arizona (10,457), Georgia (11,779), and Wisconsin (20,682), the Electoral College would have been tied at 269 all. edit: Miscounted states. Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 01:13 on Jan 22, 2024 |
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Jan 22, 2024 01:02
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Inglonias posted:Everyone in this thread seems pretty confident that Trump couldn't win a general election. Biden is a massively better candidate than Hillary, and gives no signs of considering a win a foregone conclusion unlike the candidate who seriously considered "It's her turn" as a slogan. Biden has a long history of winning elections, Hillary won 2, one of which involved the big-name opposition dropping out for health reasons and the other just barely squeaking by. Biden is painting himself as the 'return to normalcy' candidate, Hillary managed to be both radical enough to energize the chuds (first female president!) and establishment enough to turn off the left (pro-corporate, pro-war, personal friends with Kissneger, etc.). Also the only thing people can point to foreshadowing a Trump victory are polls with zero predictive value for who will win the election, so I recommend that you wait until the candidates are formally decided and campaigning actually starts before considering plans that involve panic and crying. While I don't think it's a foregone conclusion, all of the wailing and gnashing of teeth over polls that have historically had zero predictive value is a bit much.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:03
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Imagine the immediate, comprehensive sea change in our electoral system if just once, the Democratic candidate were absolutely blasted by the popular vote, squeaked a tiny EV margin and then started legislating as though appointed by God himself.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:03
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Pantaloon Pontiff posted:Biden is a massively better candidate than Hillary, and gives no signs of considering a win a foregone conclusion unlike the candidate who seriously considered "It's her turn" as a slogan. Biden has a long history of winning elections, Hillary won 2, one of which involved the big-name opposition dropping out for health reasons and the other just barely squeaking by. Biden is painting himself as the 'return to normalcy' candidate, Hillary managed to be both radical enough to energize the chuds (first female president!) and establishment enough to turn off the left (pro-corporate, pro-war, personal friends with Kissneger, etc.). Also the only thing people can point to foreshadowing a Trump victory are polls with zero predictive value for who will win the election, so I recommend that you wait until the candidates are formally decided and campaigning actually starts before considering plans that involve panic and crying. 2020 candidate Biden was strong. Former VP of a popular ex-president running as a moderate. 2024 Biden has just spent 3 (will be 4) years governing significantly further to the left than either 2020 candidate Biden or 2016 candidate Hillary, and after triggering the first major bout of inflation since the 70s he and his administration tried to "well actually the economy is good" people angry about bread prices going up 50% and homeownership going out of reach of every non-rich renter. He only has a prayer of reelection (and in fact will probably be reelected) because Trump's Jan 6th / election denial baggage is even heavier and the Supreme Court made abortion salient again.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:17
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Pantaloon Pontiff posted:Biden is a massively better candidate than Hillary, and gives no signs of considering a win a foregone conclusion unlike the candidate who seriously considered "It's her turn" as a slogan. Biden has a long history of winning elections, Biden has more failed presidential campaigns than successful, so I’m not sure about painting him as a perennial winner. Anyways, it’s pretty simple. People just went through the four shittiest years of their lives. Do you really think they’re going to be eager to vote for more of the same? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 22, 2024 01:23
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Scags McDouglas posted:Imagine the immediate, comprehensive sea change in our electoral system if just once, the Democratic candidate were absolutely blasted by the popular vote, squeaked a tiny EV margin and then started legislating as though appointed by God himself. While we're expressing comedy options, mine would be the Democrats winning the legislature and Trump winning the presidency. Well, comedy until the US defaults on its loans, I suppose.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:24
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The Top G posted:People just went through the four shittiest years of their lives. Are you posting from 2020
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Jan 22, 2024 01:25
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12 years a lurker posted:2020 candidate Biden was strong. Former VP of a popular ex-president running as a moderate. 2024 Biden has just spent 3 (will be 4) years governing significantly further to the left than either 2020 candidate Biden or 2016 candidate Hillary, and after triggering the first major bout of inflation since the 70s he and his administration tried to "well actually the economy is good" people angry about bread prices going up 50% and homeownership going out of reach of every non-rich renter. He only has a prayer of reelection (and in fact will probably be reelected) because Trump's Jan 6th / election denial baggage is even heavier and the Supreme Court made abortion salient again. And yet Trump, the guy proposing 10% tariffs on all goods coming to the US as his sole economic platform, and with 0 plan to reduce housing/health insurance/education/everything costs is going to just campaign right into the white house. Like people forgot the goofy poo poo he did and how much they hate him. Maybe they hate Biden and vote Trump, maybe they don't, but downballot the democrats have been stronger than expected every year since he was elected and nothing has changed with regards to women being mad at the GOP or young people being mad at the GOP or moderates disliking Trump.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:25
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Shammypants posted:And yet Trump, the guy proposing 10% tariffs on all goods coming to the US as his sole economic platform, and with 0 plan to reduce housing/health insurance/education/everything costs is going to just campaign right into the white house. Like people forgot the goofy poo poo he did and how much they hate him. Maybe they hate Biden and vote Trump, maybe they don't, but downballot the democrats have been stronger than expected every year since he was elected and nothing has changed with regards to women being mad at the GOP or young people being mad at the GOP or moderates disliking Trump. Trump doesn't need an economics plan to motivate his base. He didn't really have a coherent platform in 2016 other than "gently caress the libs".
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Jan 22, 2024 01:28
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Inglonias posted:Trump doesn't need an economics plan to motivate his base. He didn't really have a coherent platform in 2016 other than "gently caress the libs". He looked like poison to moderates in Iowa. That's just how it is. His base will like whatever they want but they are simply not important in the context of winning the election. Trump now isn't Trump in 2016 or 2020. We didn't have a ton of people each poll thinking he shouldn't run and saying they are uncertain of who they would vote for like we do now. Shammypants fucked around with this message at 01:31 on Jan 22, 2024 |
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Jan 22, 2024 01:29
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Inglonias posted:Trump doesn't need an economics plan to motivate his base. He didn't really have a coherent platform in 2016 other than "gently caress the libs". Counterpoint: Not only is it not 2016, and things have changed, but Donald Trump has been the loser of every election since 2016. And to follow up on Shammypants when 50% of your constituency is ready to vote not for you that doesn't exactly bode well for the god king's actual polling performance.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:35
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The Top G posted:Biden has more failed presidential campaigns than successful, so I’m not sure about painting him as a perennial winner. - Not everyone's last four years were lovely - Even though they were lovely for many people, not everyone blames Biden for that - Biden does have some achievements such as the IRA, lowering insulin prices, and at least attempting to do something about student debt (many people still got their loans forgiven or restructured through Biden's programs) - Trump would just make things even worse (extremely worse for many minorities in this country), and many people know that and will vote accordingly e: By no means do I think Trump is 100% going to lose, he has a decent chance and it's terrifying, but Biden's not screwed either. The economy is probably going to be better by election time, along with consumer sentiment, and Trump has made many unforced errors already by getting himself put on trial for a shitload of crimes, as well as doing things like bragging on camera about being responsible for Roe falling. Queering Wheel fucked around with this message at 01:42 on Jan 22, 2024 |
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Jan 22, 2024 01:36
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Ms Adequate posted:Laughing my goddamn balls off at Ron making the worst possible move at every step and dropping out after one (1) primary, in which he won precisely zero of ninety-nine counties. We Trained Him Ron As A Joke
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Jan 22, 2024 01:37
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Nelson Mandingo posted:Counterpoint: Not only is it not 2016, and things have changed, but Donald Trump has been the loser of every election since 2016. And to follow up on Shammypants when 50% of your constituency is ready to vote not for you that doesn't exactly bode well for the god king's actual polling performance. Isn't this a phenomenon that affects both candidates?  There aren't a ton of people out there who are dying to vote for Biden in November, either. It's going to be a pretty low enthusiasm election across the board.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:42
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Staluigi posted:We Trained Him Ron As A Joke
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Jan 22, 2024 01:43
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B B posted:Isn't this a phenomenon that affects both candidates? I don't think this is as relevant because because the democrats haven't had a cult of personality candidate since 2008. When the narrative is that Trump is the god king beloved fanatically by all republicans so much that you can't criticize him, and 1 out of 2 are ready to drop him then that kind of upends the myth.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:48
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Shammypants posted:And yet Trump, the guy proposing 10% tariffs on all goods coming to the US as his sole economic platform, and with 0 plan to reduce housing/health insurance/education/everything costs is going to just campaign right into the white house. Like people forgot the goofy poo poo he did and how much they hate him. Maybe they hate Biden and vote Trump, maybe they don't, but downballot the democrats have been stronger than expected every year since he was elected and nothing has changed with regards to women being mad at the GOP or young people being mad at the GOP or moderates disliking Trump. Swing voters and moderates hate both of them. Speaking as one myself. I voted for Candidate Biden in 2020 expecting Obama 2.0 and suspecting that Trump had the behavior that came out after he lost in him, but have been deeply disappointed in President Biden. Haven't decided yet if I will be voting for Biden, Trump, or leaving the presidential ballot blank if the likely rematch happens. Probably blank. No question that [generic Democrat] vs [generic Republican] has favored [generic Democrat] since the abortion ruling and probably will continue to until the Republicans cry uncle on the issue after losing because of it many times. This race is (likely) between two people with a track record, however. This board has gotten partisan enough that a lot of ability to empathize with and understand non-partisans has been lost. Like how the heck did people need the Axios poll for it to sink in how much of a problem food and to a lesser extent housing inflation and the dismissive response to it has become.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:48
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The Top G posted:Biden has more failed presidential campaigns than successful, so I’m not sure about painting him as a perennial winner. tbqh I don't like Biden as a person or a politician, but here's the thing, lmao, I have had the unfortunate experience of being a US american for the entirety of my life I'm pretty convinced of his inevitable landslide victory because what I've never seen, anywhere that's not a website, is the absolute refusal of this ancient rapist***** because he's not communist enough (*******seriously gently caress Brandon, he's awful, this post is not an endorsement) what I have seen is people turning out to oppose republicans because they somehow make Joe Biden look like a great guy.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:52
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Trump is going to lose the election. The current polls are proven to be a coin flip this far out. Democrats have been destroying Republicans ever since Trump was elected. Republicans lost the midterms during the highest inflation of my lifetime by far and they're not getting this advantage in the fall of 2024. Stock market just hit a new high. It will probably end up making new highs this year. The GOP has collapsed in several key swing states like AZ and MI. And all of this gloom about Biden as it relates to the current polls isn't taking into account that the same polls show other Democrats losing to Trump as well. In fact, the best candidate vs Trump seems to be Joe loving Manchin and he STILL loses. So the polls seem to be down on Democrats in general, not Biden, unless you think that random-rear end Democrats that mopped Republicans in 2022-2023 will for some reason run 11 points ahead of Biden. quote:The same poll found that Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris 50% to 45%, California Gov. Gavin Newsom 49% to 45%, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer 48% to 46% and outgoing Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) 47% to 46% in hypothetical head-to-head matchups. https://nypost.com/2023/11/16/news/trump-beats-biden-newsom-harris-manchin-in-2024-poll/ Even Newsom loses to Trump.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:53
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12 years a lurker posted:Swing voters and moderates hate both of them. Speaking as one myself. I voted for Candidate Biden in 2020 expecting Obama 2.0 and suspecting that Trump had the behavior that came out after he lost in him, but have been deeply disappointed in President Biden. Haven't decided yet if I will be voting for Biden, Trump, or leaving the presidential ballot blank if the likely rematch happens. Probably blank. No question that [generic Democrat] vs [generic Republican] has favored [generic Democrat] since the abortion ruling and probably will continue to until the Republicans cry uncle on the issue after losing because of it many times. This race is (likely) between two people with a track record, however. Why would you vote for Trump when he plans to use Project 2025 to imprison and/or kill so many LGBTQ+ people, immigrants and other minorities? Like that alone should at least make you not want to vote for him. I can't force you to vote for Biden but come the gently caress on. Sorry about your egg prices though
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Jan 22, 2024 01:55
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12 years a lurker posted:Swing voters and moderates hate both of them. Speaking as one myself. I voted for Candidate Biden in 2020 expecting Obama 2.0 and suspecting that Trump had the behavior that came out after he lost in him, but have been deeply disappointed in President Biden. Haven't decided yet if I will be voting for Biden, Trump, or leaving the presidential ballot blank if the likely rematch happens. Probably blank. No question that [generic Democrat] vs [generic Republican] has favored [generic Democrat] since the abortion ruling and probably will continue to until the Republicans cry uncle on the issue after losing because of it many times. This race is (likely) between two people with a track record, however. If you're worried about the prices of goods, I don't think Trump should be even in your spectrum. Post pandemic America is A LOT different than the America he wetly sauntered into and skull hosed. Edit: Now that I think about it, I have no idea how someone can actually have this viewpoint in America in 2024 Cthulhumatic fucked around with this message at 01:59 on Jan 22, 2024 |
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Jan 22, 2024 01:55
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I believe that NV, AZ, MI, and GA are solidly blue states now PA too probably GOP will only remain relevant in cultural wastelands like Ohio and Florida
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Jan 22, 2024 01:56
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12 years a lurker posted:Swing voters and moderates hate both of them. Speaking as one myself. I voted for Candidate Biden in 2020 expecting Obama 2.0 and suspecting that Trump had the behavior that came out after he lost in him, but have been deeply disappointed in President Biden. Haven't decided yet if I will be voting for Biden, Trump, or leaving the presidential ballot blank if the likely rematch happens. Probably blank. No question that [generic Democrat] vs [generic Republican] has favored [generic Democrat] since the abortion ruling and probably will continue to until the Republicans cry uncle on the issue after losing because of it many times. This race is (likely) between two people with a track record, however. Is your issue that Biden has run too far to the left? I also expected him to be Obama 2.0 and so far he's exceeded that. I'd love to see him handle Israel differently but I don't think Obama would've.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:57
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B B posted:Isn't this a phenomenon that affects both candidates? Why are you using an article from 7 months ago for this argument? That's beside the fact that that polling question is pretty irrelevant. Clinton only had a little more than 55% in a similar question asked in 1994, and he did pretty well in his reelection. Kchama fucked around with this message at 02:02 on Jan 22, 2024 |
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Jan 22, 2024 01:59
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12 years a lurker posted:understand non-partisans has been lost. Because I don't believe in the existence in unscientific phenomena. No, nobody in this world who educates themselves objectively on the issues and is genuinely interested in politics is non-partisan. This isn't saying someone is left wing automatically with education. Just that non-partisans simply don't exist. 12 years a lurker posted:Like how the heck did people need the Axios poll for it to sink in how much of a problem food and to a lesser extent housing inflation and the dismissive response to it has become. As someone who had to recently use the goon fund to buy food for a week I'm absolutely not dismissing food insecurity and the housing inflation problems. But there is no objective indication that Donald Trump will attempt to solve the issue. He is explicitly campaigning on revenge and to make up for losing 2020. Food prices is explicitly corporate price gouging. They say so. By law they can't lie about what they're doing in shareholder meetings and they keep recording record profits and bonuses while suggesting that the prices -had- to come up. https://www.supermarketnews.com/retail-financial/biden-administration-wants-crack-down-grocery-price-gouging Hey what'dya know someone is attempting something about it. But who knows how they'll get there without actual legislation? Do you know who would vote against that? Because I do. Beyond every republican I can name two democrats who would vote against price controls.
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Jan 22, 2024 02:01
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12 years a lurker posted:after triggering the first major bout of inflation since the 70s he and his administration Nope, this is not correct, which is a problem since it is an underpinning of the factual (rather than vibes) side of your Biden Bad argument. Neither the Biden admin nor the democratic led pandemic relief were primary drivers of inflation, and also they created more good than they did inflation so the actual answer to reduce pain on the working class could have involved MORE financial support from the government. Inflation was basically global and largely driven by supply disruptions, followed by price manipulation and oligopolies with the excuse of supply disruptions. If your media sources are telling you it's government spending that drove inflation - which is my inference from your posts, maybe I'm wrong and you are instead blaming the administration being slow on the draw to punish price manipulation and its shiny new software facilitators- then you need to reevaluate them. E: ^^^ the Biden admin has thrown its weight behind state investigations into price manipulation, which is being slow and insufficient but at least doesn't require federal congressional action Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 02:07 on Jan 22, 2024 |
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Jan 22, 2024 02:05
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Nelson Mandingo posted:Counterpoint: Not only is it not 2016, and things have changed, but Donald Trump has been the loser of every election since 2016. And to follow up on Shammypants when 50% of your constituency is ready to vote not for you that doesn't exactly bode well for the god king's actual polling performance. That depends. Is 50% of his constituency willing to tolerate four more years of Biden? Even if they prefer Ron DeSantis over Donald Trump, that doesn't mean they wouldn't prefer Trump over the socialist monster who's destroying America as we speak. The decisive factor for Trump in 2016 wasn't the hardcore MAGA base, it was the fact that most the non-MAGA Republicans who hated Trump were still willing to hold their noses and vote red to defeat Hillary and swing the Supreme Court. 12 years a lurker posted:Swing voters and moderates hate both of them. Speaking as one myself. I voted for Candidate Biden in 2020 expecting Obama 2.0 and suspecting that Trump had the behavior that came out after he lost in him, but have been deeply disappointed in President Biden. How the heck is Biden disappointing compared to Obama? Barack wouldn't have dreamed of even suggesting half the awesome poo poo Biden has actually done.
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Jan 22, 2024 02:05
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Kchama posted:Why are you using an article from 7 months ago for this argument? Here is a similar poll from September: https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/07/politics/cnn-poll-joe-biden-headwinds/index.html Here is another from November: https://news.yahoo.com/poll-a-majority-of-democrats-want-new-candidate-to-challenge-biden-in-2024-primary-100031348.html Here is a poll from December showing his approval rating continuing a nose dive among Democrats: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/12/14/assessments-of-joe-biden/ Hopefully these numbers are recent enough for you.
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Jan 22, 2024 02:06
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Yeah I am genuinely struggling to understand how someone could both want Obama 2.0 AND be disapponted in Biden. I am super curious as to what actually happened to make him now so unappealing to an Obama 2.0 desirer that they no longer consider him a much better choice than Trump
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Jan 22, 2024 02:14
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B B posted:Isn't this a phenomenon that affects both candidates? My opinion, based on some looking at numbers, that can be refuted, but my opinion nonetheless is that the people who don't really want Biden to run are liberals who are likely to vote Biden anyway. So in the Democrats camp, Democrat leaning means green/third party/more liberal than the Democrats. The people who are skeptical about Trump across the board are the ones you really have to worry about- moderates, independents. I think a low enthusiasm election is definitely likely though you're right.
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Jan 22, 2024 02:23
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Are you posting from 2020 Queering Wheel posted:- Not everyone's last four years were lovely More people may be feeling this than not, according to polls like quote:Source: https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/HHP_Dec23_KeyResults.pdf
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Jan 22, 2024 02:31
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GlyphGryph posted:Yeah I am genuinely struggling to understand how someone could both want Obama 2.0 AND be disapponted in Biden. I am super curious as to what actually happened to make him now so unappealing to an Obama 2.0 desirer that they no longer consider him a much better choice than Trump People have the short term memory of a mayfly and think of voting for president like hitting in blackjack; if you don't like your hand right now might as well risk it, what's the worst that could happen
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Jan 22, 2024 02:32
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