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The NH primary is in two days, I think we can just wait for results at this point. Haley probably has a decent fundraising pool of “not Trump” so she can likely stay in a bit.
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Jan 21, 2024 15:25
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I think even Haley herself doesn't expect to get the nomination at this point, but she's doing well enough that she can justify staying in the race, boosting her profile and becoming the darling of whatever's left of the old GOP establishment.
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Jan 21, 2024 17:08
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smackfu posted:The NH primary is in two days, I think we can just wait for results at this point. can wait sure in the mean time, I'm not here for realism, I just want to giggle at which large, robotic Florida boy finally challenges our beloved president
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Jan 21, 2024 17:28
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Phlegmish posted:I think even Haley herself doesn't expect to get the nomination at this point... There's got to be at least a 1% chance that Trump can't get the nomination because he dies/has a totally disastrous medical condition/has incredibly serious evidence emerge from one of his many lawsuits. I think Nikki's motivated by the incentives you describe but also by that at-least-one-percent chance. If she can make it to the nomination she has some chance of becoming President, and a lot of people would pay any price for any possibility of becoming President.
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Jan 21, 2024 17:32
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Phlegmish posted:I think even Haley herself doesn't expect to get the nomination at this point, but she's doing well enough that she can justify staying in the race, boosting her profile and becoming the darling of whatever's left of the old GOP establishment. I have to be honest though, if you told me in 2020 that Nikki Hayley would be the only meaningful republican challenger I'd have asked you 'Who?' followed by 'Huh?'
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Jan 21, 2024 17:35
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Civilized Fishbot posted:There's got to be at least a 1% chance that Trump can't get the nomination because he dies/has a totally disastrous medical condition/has incredibly serious evidence emerge from one of his many lawsuits. Hmm...that is true. They don't call him Chaos Trump  for nothing, you never know what's going to happen, and she's in a perfect position to get the nod if he finally succeeds in eliminating himself for whatever reason, as being one of the few who dared to challenge him and actually had a measure of success.
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Jan 21, 2024 17:35
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StumblyWumbly posted:Nikki is definitely hoping people who will vote Biden in the general will help her in NH. One of her field consultants could be getting paid by the text and padding their numbers by contacting Massachusettes people.
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Jan 21, 2024 17:37
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It's very likely they're getting poorly sourced contact lists and the consultants involved are, yes, not looking to closely because everyone involved is being paid for quantity.
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Jan 21, 2024 17:38
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Phlegmish posted:I think even Haley herself doesn't expect to get the nomination at this point, but she's doing well enough that she can justify staying in the race, boosting her profile and becoming the darling of whatever's left of the old GOP establishment. I mean there is a play for 2028 if she can be the next in line DeSantis and get fawning coverage about how's different than Trump (despite being in the admin).
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Jan 21, 2024 18:08
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I know this isn't a novel observation, but it's a fine line to tread, distancing yourself from Trump, but not his massive base, and I think she's done a decent job of it. At least compared to charisma black hole DeSantis
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Jan 21, 2024 18:13
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Phlegmish posted:I know this isn't a novel observation, but it's a fine line to tread, distancing yourself from Trump, but not his massive base, and I think she's done a decent job of it. At least compared to charisma black hole DeSantis I was legitimately concerned about Desantis back in early 2021 just because he was pushing as all the fascism, none of the stupidity. To see him fold up in upon himself like some sort of 4th dimensional object of null charisma has been one of the only real political joys of this last year.
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Jan 21, 2024 19:13
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Phlegmish posted:Wonder what he'd do if he dropped out. Endorsing Trump would be incredibly humiliating at this point, but he's just spent half a year calling Haley a treasonous China-loving bitch, so that'd be a hard sell too. I mean when you put it that way obviously he'll endorse Trump
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Jan 21, 2024 19:33
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Caros posted:I was legitimately concerned about Desantis back in early 2021 just because he was pushing as all the fascism, none of the stupidity. i think alot of that was because desantis has a much better controlled enviroment that he could project uniformed strength from. the issue is when cracks appeared they were glaring. https://twitter.com/AP/status/1499364218801430529 i think thats when i realized he was kinda of blob fish that couldnt survive outside the GOP red state. dude can't handle losing control and worst when he gets mad he either whines and bitchs OR he gets super passive agressive.
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Jan 21, 2024 20:05
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DeSantis is suspending his campaign.
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Jan 21, 2024 21:09
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Gone DeSantis https://x.com/RonDeSantis/status/1749159384112845285?s=20 Ron's going to retire back to Florida while transforming into Scott Walker 2.0
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Jan 21, 2024 21:09
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Mooseontheloose posted:I mean there is a play for 2028 if she can be the next in line DeSantis and get fawning coverage about how's different than Trump (despite being in the admin). I think she's a huge threat for 2028. If Trump doesn't win the general in 2024 and is still alive and not jailed in 2028...I mean, I'm sure he'll run again, but I don't think he will have nearly as much power left. Eventually, people do get sick of losing, schticks do get old, and it will be time to move on. If you want to pivot, a folksy young-ish minority woman who talks tough about China is a fairly clear sign that you are at least making surface level changes. The core is still rotten, but it's a fresh coat of paint that might trick just enough people to eke out a win.
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Jan 21, 2024 21:25
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Young Freud posted:Gone DeSantis He looks like Homelander if Homelander didn't work out. Also, Scott Walker was defeated eventually.
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Jan 21, 2024 21:26
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Mooseontheloose posted:He looks like Homelander if Homelander didn't work out. Ron is termed out so he’s not going to be governor again. His next step (other than disappearing) is running for Senate. The real question is whether the humiliation breaks his grip on the FL GOP. He has enemies in the legislature, so things could be interesting over the next session or two. His complete inattention to the insurance crisis in the state is the kind of pocketbook issue that reshapes coalitions, because the “wrong people” are increasingly impacted, and the shiny distraction of the anti-DEI crusade is losing its influence. DeSantis barely beat Andrew Gillum the first time around despite growing scandal clouds around Gillum and the racism in a big chunk of the FL electorate. He was basically only popular heading into his second term because of his (lack of) COVID policies and he totally misread his position. Nobody outside of the Christian/Bridget Ziegler set wanted all the culture war poo poo, and then they got outed as a bunch of weird freaks. Floridians are a bunch of lovely dumbasses (as a native Floridian), but they’re more the “don’t want to pay taxes and want to live like a bunch of unrestricted children” kind of old white retirees that have overwhelmed the Villages than whatever Ron is. VanillaGorilla fucked around with this message at 22:04 on Jan 21, 2024 |
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Jan 21, 2024 21:57
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VanillaGorilla posted:Ron is termed out so he’s not going to be governor again. His next step (other than disappearing) is running for Senate. yeah. basicaly he has focused on the hard right social poo poo and won't stop because he got praise and won a election off of it. I could see the next govenor quietly walking back from a ton of the social poo poo.
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Jan 21, 2024 22:00
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah. basicaly he has focused on the hard right social poo poo and won't stop because he got praise and won a election off of it. I could see the next govenor quietly walking back from a ton of the social poo poo. Gunna be funny if we see ol’ Jeb Bush strike from the shadows to avenge the many betrayals of the last decade. Maybe John Morgan finally shoots his shot at political supremacy with both Florida parties in disarray, lol. (This is actually less a joke the more I think about it. J.M. is kind of an old school FL moderate. Stupid rich, but friends on both sides of the aisle and he’s been a champion of marijuana legalization in the state, which may be on the ballot in 2024. Good opportunity to run for the governor’s seat in the next cycle if the legislature decides to ignore the referendum). VanillaGorilla fucked around with this message at 22:13 on Jan 21, 2024 |
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Jan 21, 2024 22:07
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Ultimately with how much of a charisma-less ghoul his entire campaign has exposed him to be, I'm guessing he's gonna land in a cushy mostly-ceremonial position at the Family Research Council and we never actively hear about him again. Like his attempt to steal the Evangelical vote away from Trump ultimately didn't work, but he showed himself as perfectly willing to use the power of the state to terrorize LGBT children so they'll throw him a salary for the rest of his life.
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Jan 21, 2024 22:09
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Crunch Buttsteak posted:Ultimately with how much of a charisma-less ghoul his entire campaign has exposed him to be, I'm guessing he's gonna land in a cushy mostly-ceremonial position at the Family Research Council and we never actively hear about him again. Like his attempt to steal the Evangelical vote away from Trump ultimately didn't work, but he showed himself as perfectly willing to use the power of the state to terrorize LGBT children so they'll throw him a salary for the rest of his life. yeah, thats my guess. i think he tries to run in 2028 but depending on factors doesnt last long either. Outside red states, the OPEN evangelical poo poo/morality police poo poo isnt that popular at least for now.
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Jan 21, 2024 22:40
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I feel like Haley's in a weird place where she can't win a GOP primary against any white male with a pulse (which does thin out the herd quite a bit) but could win a general against most Democrats, but especially Biden. If Trump were to drop dead tomorrow or get kicked off the ballot by the SC, there'd be about 20 people jumping into the race and Haley would lose the primary to either DeSantis or Tom Cotton or some other ghoul in a stiff suit. I just don't think she can overcome the inate racism of the GOP primary electoriate. She could get VP; she was all but screaming pick her for VP in '16 but didn't want to hitch her wagon to what everyone was assuming was a doomed Trump campaign and we all know how that's turned out. Haley's best case is it's just Trump and her coming close to the convention and some sort of act of God eliminates Trump from the general election. She needs it to be too close to the nomination for anyone else to try and jump in and steal the bid from her, but enough time to try and win over the MAGA crowd and convince them to revert back to their base programming of voting R no matter what.
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Jan 21, 2024 22:54
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C. Everett Koop posted:I feel like Haley's in a weird place where she can't win a GOP primary against any white male with a pulse (which does thin out the herd quite a bit) but could win a general against most Democrats, but especially Biden. If Trump were to drop dead tomorrow or get kicked off the ballot by the SC, there'd be about 20 people jumping into the race and Haley would lose the primary to either DeSantis or Tom Cotton or some other ghoul in a stiff suit. I just don't think she can overcome the inate racism of the GOP primary electoriate. She could get VP; she was all but screaming pick her for VP in '16 but didn't want to hitch her wagon to what everyone was assuming was a doomed Trump campaign and we all know how that's turned out. I don't think you understand the modern (white) right-wing mindset if you believe this. There's a whole cottage industry of 'POC' on YouTube telling conservative and/or alt-right white people exactly what they want to hear, and some of them are very popular. People like that are perfect for the right to latch on to, because it means they are partially shielded from accusations of racism, and it reinforces the narrative of their side being the voice of reason in a world gone woke. Even this black woman agrees with us! Sure, some of the more primitive primary Republicans might instinctively object to having to vote for an Indian woman, but generally they understand the strategic value of having their viewpoints be defended by someone like that. Haley is not dumb, she herself understands this very well, and that's why she's saying all this poo poo about the Civil War not being about slavery, and the US never having been a racist country. She doesn't actually believe that, she just knows that it will be popular with the base, and that she has a better chance of getting away with it due to not being white. Additionally, she goes by Nikki Haley, the most bog-standard Anglo name imaginable, and she's Christian. She ticks all the right assimilationist boxes to be considered 'one of the good ones'. I honestly don't think her background is a handicap, it might actually be helping her.
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Jan 21, 2024 23:24
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah, thats my guess. i think he tries to run in 2028 but depending on factors doesnt last long either. Outside red states, the OPEN evangelical poo poo/morality police poo poo isnt that popular at least for now. I could see Ron running successfully in 2028 because fortunately for him, Republican voters have no long term memory and will completely forget how pathetic he was if he hits the ground running with a retooled campaign and aggressive image next time. Assuming we're still doing the charade of elections by then, of course.
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Jan 21, 2024 23:40
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Phlegmish posted:I don't think you understand the modern (white) right-wing mindset if you believe this. There's a whole cottage industry of 'POC' on YouTube telling conservative and/or alt-right white people exactly what they want to hear, and some of them are very popular. People like that are perfect for the right to latch on to, because it means they are partially shielded from accusations of racism, and it reinforces the narrative of their side being the voice of reason in a world gone woke. Even this black woman agrees with us! Sure, some of the more primitive primary Republicans might instinctively object to having to vote for an Indian woman, but generally they understand the strategic value of having their viewpoints be defended by someone like that. 1: First, I'm perfectly fine with not understanding the modern right/white-wing mindset tbh. Second, I know there's a whole line of POC grifters/potential true believers out there, the Candace Owens/Diamond and Silk/Jason Whitlock crowd, who get propped up so the GOP can play the racism card in defense mode. The issue is that being "one of the good ones" only saves you so for long. It puts you ahead of the other undesirables of your kin, it might even get you a seat at the table. But it'll never put you at the head of the table, and when the blade starts to fall the "good ones" aren't actual ones and are the next to fall. 2: Not accusing Haley of being dumb. She's done exceptionally well for herself and would/might still be VP in a different world and potentially President if a heartbeat gets skipped. But winning the presidency on her own name is a whole different story and one I think she only achieves if she manages to thread a very narrow needle that's mostly out of her control. She needs that Australian speed skater winning gold situation, where everyone in front of you gets taken out by various means and you're the last one standing.
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Jan 21, 2024 23:43
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C. Everett Koop posted:I feel like Haley's in a weird place where she can't win a GOP primary against any white male with a pulse (which does thin out the herd quite a bit) but could win a general against most Democrats, but especially Biden. If Trump were to drop dead tomorrow or get kicked off the ballot by the SC, there'd be about 20 people jumping into the race and Haley would lose the primary to either DeSantis or Tom Cotton or some other ghoul in a stiff suit. No way. The primary already started, nobody else would be able to put together a campaign before Haley took several states uncontested and made herself the uncontested nominee. If Trump dropped out a few months ago, maybe, but if he goes tomorrow then Haley walks to the RNC with only token opposition if any.
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Jan 21, 2024 23:56
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Yeah I think the deadlines have passed to register in a lot of the state primaries.
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Jan 22, 2024 00:13
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Bodyholes posted:I could see Ron running successfully in 2028 because fortunately for him, Republican voters have no long term memory and will completely forget how pathetic he was if he hits the ground running with a retooled campaign and aggressive image next time. I don't think you're wrong and retooling your approach is all you need in today's politics. Just look at Trump. My issue with this is Ron will have to spend the next 4 years busting his rear end to make Florida less of a shithole than it is, and rapidly becoming. A lot is going to happen in the interim and I don't think he'll suddenly be ready for prime time with his introverted personality and mannerisms on top of having a lot of bad economic and social problems that anybody competent could hammer him on. I think Gavin Newsom's completely accurate prediction he'd drop out this week and kiss Donald's ring months ago is a clear example of how it's done.
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Jan 22, 2024 00:36
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Sure the party base that tripled down on racism after 2012 despite the wishes of the establishment will change their minds and support a woman of color over a racist potato in 2028.
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Jan 22, 2024 00:38
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Civilized Fishbot posted:No way. The primary already started, nobody else would be able to put together a campaign before Haley took several states uncontested and made herself the uncontested nominee. It kind of depends on what happens to Trumps pledged delegates from the primaries he won. If they go free agent it potentially sets up some sort of delegate coup and you could get some real goofy poo poo going down.
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Jan 22, 2024 00:59
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VanillaGorilla posted:The real question is whether the humiliation breaks his grip on the FL GOP. He has enemies in the legislature, so things could be interesting over the next session or two. His complete inattention to the insurance crisis in the state is the kind of pocketbook issue that reshapes coalitions, because the “wrong people” are increasingly impacted, and the shiny distraction of the anti-DEI crusade is losing its influence. It's already cracking. Remember that the Moms For Liberty bullshit was wholly-subsidized by DeSantis to export Florida culture war to the rest of the country in advance for DeSantis' candidacy. Turns out their head leadership was caught raping women and/or having threesomes. Another got outed for throwing alcohol parties for underage minors. The whole organization is now facing pushback for their book bans and I'm pretty sure with DeSantis now out, they will collapse. Also, the state legislature went along with DeSantis' crazy culture war bullshit and COVID denialism because they thought he had a good chance at the White House and wanted to get some juicy positions, especially in the Cabinet. Now that is no longer happening, what good is he? Ron's going back to Florida weaker, this may as well be a two-year lame duck period for him before he starts collect unemployment.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:01
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DeathSandwich posted:It kind of depends on what happens to Trumps pledged delegates from the primaries he won. If they go free agent it potentially sets up some sort of delegate coup and you could get some real goofy poo poo going down. This is a really interesting point and it might apply if Trump drops out after so many states have gone to him that Haley can't assemble a majority with the remaining delegates. But if Trump dropped out tomorrow then he wouldn't have enough pledged delegates to make that happen, Haley would take 49/50 states and a super early majority.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:03
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Bodyholes posted:I could see Ron running successfully in 2028 because fortunately for him, Republican voters have no long term memory and will completely forget how pathetic he was if he hits the ground running with a retooled campaign and aggressive image next time. He doesn't have the charisma to win and will always be dunked on no matter what cycle it is. All of his hype in the media was the result of his people tricking the national media into believing Ron was a political mastermind who did nothing but win. The truth is that he got to where he is by cravenly only running when he would probably win, and barely winning the one actual race he was ever in. Remember that in 2016 he jumped into the Florida Senate race and then fled like a chicken the second Rubio came back. Young Freud posted:It's already cracking. Remember that the Moms For Liberty bullshit was wholly-subsidized by DeSantis to export Florida culture war to the rest of the country in advance for DeSantis' candidacy. Turns out their head leadership was caught raping women and/or having threesomes. Another got outed for throwing alcohol parties for underage minors. The whole organization is now facing pushback for their book bans and I'm pretty sure with DeSantis now out, they will collapse. It's also important to remember that a decent chunk of his power came from the illusion of power that the 2022 race gave him. It can't be overstated enough how much Charlie Crist sucks and how incompetent the Florida Democratic Party who keeps propping him up is. If DeSantis was running against an actual opponent the race would have been much closer than against perennial loser and former Republican Charlie Crist. Getting absolutely murdered in the 2024 primaries from the second he announced has all but completely destroyed his image of strength. Especially with Trump clearly pissed at him and making GBS threads on him from in-state.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:37
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Does this mean no more debates given it’s just Haley and Trump? I imagine she’ll use that as a point of attack, but I guess get ready for more town hall presentations.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:41
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Gyges posted:He doesn't have the charisma to win and will always be dunked on no matter what cycle it is. All of his hype in the media was the result of his people tricking the national media into believing Ron was a political mastermind who did nothing but win. The truth is that he got to where he is by cravenly only running when he would probably win, and barely winning the one actual race he was ever in. Remember that in 2016 he jumped into the Florida Senate race and then fled like a chicken the second Rubio came back. Also the media wanted a young fresh guy who bucked the COVID trend to play against Biden.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:41
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Pants Donkey posted:Does this mean no more debates given it’s just Haley and Trump? There was no debates since Iowa because Trump wouldn't agree to them and DeSantis figured they wouldn't help him anyway.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:43
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The only way I see debates happening between Trump and Haley is if Haley wins the next, like, five primaries.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:54
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Edward Mass posted:The only way I see debates happening between Trump and Haley is if Haley wins the next, like, five primaries. And even then I feel like he'd only do it if he could stack the deck in some ridiculous and obvious way like make Don Jr the moderator or stack the audience with people who went to the 6th
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Jan 22, 2024 02:00
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Gyges posted:It's also important to remember that a decent chunk of his power came from the illusion of power that the 2022 race gave him. It can't be overstated enough how much Charlie Crist sucks and how incompetent the Florida Democratic Party who keeps propping him up is. If DeSantis was running against an actual opponent the race would have been much closer than against perennial loser and former Republican Charlie Crist. Yeah, a big part of DeSantis' appeal to conservatives outside of Florida was the "proof" that his win in 2022 was a sign that the Culture War was alive and well, and people still enthusiastically voted for him after his passage of "controversial" (anti-LGBT) laws and a public fight with Disney. Like, it wasn't the man himself, but the idea that anti-gay and anti-trans bills could be passed and actually be beneficial to the person passing them was a shot in the arm for a bunch of conservative Evangelical types. It was a sign to them that their bigoted causes are now political wins, and they should keep fighting that good fight. And then he declared he was running, and yeah you can see how that went. He was never the guy, he was just permission for shitheads to accuse gay people of being pedophiles because Christopher Rufo said it will get people on their side (it doesn't).
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Jan 22, 2024 02:02
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