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12 years a lurker posted:It's unfair to people going through the legal process, and worse for the country than letting people in based on their ability to assimilate and contribute. I'd like a more merit based system, but if we're not going to have that still prefer lottery based or family preference than whomever manages to get across the border and not get caught for a few years wins. We were built on immigration and it's a good thing in moderation, but there is only so much capacity economically, culturally, and politically and proverbial 'slots' shouldn't go to those willing to flout the rules. What merits should we judge people on to be let in? Should people with no economic options or fleeing violence at home be turned away if they aren't a STEM degree holder? Is a value of a human life what it can contribute to the economy? Have you ever been in a situation where you have absolutely nothing and needed to "flout the rules" it seems you've been privileged and think these people are just trying to cut the immigration line like its a queue at a DMV or something. Letting these people in is a tiny drop in the ocean that is our budget. It would cost far more to build a wall than to just let these people in and help them with food and shelter.
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Jan 22, 2024 05:05
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12 years a lurker posted:It's unfair to people going through the legal process, and worse for the country than letting people in based on their ability to assimilate and contribute. I'd like a more merit based system, but if we're not going to have that still prefer lottery based or family preference than whomever manages to get across the border and not get caught for a few years wins. We were built on immigration and it's a good thing in moderation, but there is only so much capacity economically, culturally, and politically and proverbial 'slots' shouldn't go to those willing to flout the rules. What is "cultural capacity", and what do you mean by too much immigration exceeding it? Can you put a number on what too much immigrant culture is?
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Jan 22, 2024 05:08
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12 years a lurker posted:It's the certainty of economic mismanagement vs the small but catastrophic risk of fascism. Obviously if it was the certainty of economic mismanagement vs the certainty of fascism, economic mismanagement is the clear correct choice. "Small but catastrophic risk of fascism"? Trump actively tried to overturn the result of the 2020 election. He called up state election officials and pressured them to "find" enough votes to flip their state to him. His campaign actively organized an effort to send fraudulent election certificates to the federal government in hopes that Pence would certify them instead of the real ones. He pressured the Justice Department to declare the election fraudulent. He sent a mob to storm the Capitol to block the counting of the electoral votes. To this day, he insists that he was the real winner of the 2020 election. And in the lame duck period following his November defeat, he purged a number of government positions and filled them with loyalists he hoped would support his claims. If he wins in 2024, it's rather unlikely that there will be free and fair elections in 2028.
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Jan 22, 2024 05:10
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Stabbey_the_Clown posted:What is "cultural capacity", and what do you mean by too much immigration exceeding it? Can you put a number on what too much immigrant culture is? I think it uses the Scoville scale.
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Jan 22, 2024 05:10
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Also I just know Democrats are soft on crime (whatever that means) and weak on national security. No I can't tell why or what that means or what policies they have that made that happen, I just have the tummyfeels.
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Jan 22, 2024 05:12
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Kchama posted:Your poll (just one poll) doesn’t show what you says it shows. It does not show that Joe Biden is ‘Historically Unpopular’, just that he has had the lowest approval rating in the Gallup poll in the December of his first term since Jimmy Carter…. within Margin of Error of Barack Obama. You're getting a bit snippy, which is kind of unfortunate since I've been perfectly respectful toward you. I am not "pretending" to read your posts. Please do not assume bad faith; reasonable people can disagree. Anyway, I did also include a link to 538's rolling average of every president's approval rating going back to Truman. Here's the link again: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ Please note that this is based on much more than "one poll" and it shows that at this point in his presidency (one year out from his re-election attempt), he is polling worse than every president since 1945. Biden is definitely historically unpopular. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 22, 2024 05:12
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Main Paineframe posted:"Small but catastrophic risk of fascism"? .. . You have to fill in the blanks. Risk of fascism [to me]
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Jan 22, 2024 05:14
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Main Paineframe posted:"Small but catastrophic risk of fascism"? Trump actively tried to overturn the result of the 2020 election. He called up state election officials and pressured them to "find" enough votes to flip their state to him. His campaign actively organized an effort to send fraudulent election certificates to the federal government in hopes that Pence would certify them instead of the real ones. He pressured the Justice Department to declare the election fraudulent. He sent a mob to storm the Capitol to block the counting of the electoral votes. To this day, he insists that he was the real winner of the 2020 election. And in the lame duck period following his November defeat, he purged a number of government positions and filled them with loyalists he hoped would support his claims. Look he only said he wanted to be a dictator and jail all his opposition for the first day. We have to see things from other peoples' perspectives sometimes. I'm sure he'll be reasonable and stick to that and go back to regular presidenting after that
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Jan 22, 2024 05:14
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Main Paineframe posted:"Small but catastrophic risk of fascism"? Trump actively tried to overturn the result of the 2020 election. He called up state election officials and pressured them to "find" enough votes to flip their state to him. His campaign actively organized an effort to send fraudulent election certificates to the federal government in hopes that Pence would certify them instead of the real ones. He pressured the Justice Department to declare the election fraudulent. He sent a mob to storm the Capitol to block the counting of the electoral votes. To this day, he insists that he was the real winner of the 2020 election. And in the lame duck period following his November defeat, he purged a number of government positions and filled them with loyalists he hoped would support his claims. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 22, 2024 05:19
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12 years a lurker posted:It's unfair to people going through the legal process, and worse for the country than letting people in based on their ability to assimilate and contribute. I'd like a more merit based system, but if we're not going to have that still prefer lottery based or family preference than whomever manages to get across the border and not get caught for a few years wins. We were built on immigration and it's a good thing in moderation, but there is only so much capacity economically, culturally, and politically and proverbial 'slots' shouldn't go to those willing to flout the rules. It sounds like it's real bad from your perspective that Trump's presidency wasn't very good at curbing illegal immigration but led to a drop in legal immigration then. Sure not a selling point for bringing him back. https://www.cato.org/blog/president-trump-reduced-legal-immigration-he-did-not-reduce-illegal-immigration https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-02/trump-didn-t-actually-accomplish-much-on-immigration
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Jan 22, 2024 05:27
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B B posted:You're getting a bit snippy, which is kind of unfortunate since I've been perfectly respectful toward you. I am not "pretending" to read your posts. Please do not assume bad faith; reasonable people can disagree. I do not think it is respectful at all to ignore what I said so you can try and score points on me by accusing me of saying what I didn’t say. So no, you have not been ‘perfectly respectful’. The post I was responding to was using a single Biden Gallup poll as proof. I’ll also note that 538 called Obama the ‘most unpopular president to ever be reelected’ and he went on to be reelected pretty easily.
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Jan 22, 2024 05:29
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Trump supporters always bring up that his economy was so great, and nothing was ever wrong, but didn't he pretty much inherit everything from Obama?
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Jan 22, 2024 05:32
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Killer robot posted:It sounds like it's real bad from your perspective that Trump's presidency wasn't very good at curbing illegal immigration but led to a drop in legal immigration then. Sure not a selling point for bringing him back. I wanna add to this and point out that Biden is doing more deportations than Trump. https://www.cato.org/blog/new-data-show-migrants-were-more-likely-be-released-trump-biden This is a far right organization reporting this by the way. I guess we don't actually have open borders like the fox news cinematic universe wants us to believe.
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Jan 22, 2024 05:34
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John Yossarian posted:Trump supporters always bring up that his economy was so great, and nothing was ever wrong, but didn't he pretty much inherit everything from Obama? The consistent pattern for the past several decades has been that Republicans gently caress up the economy, lose an election about it, democrats fix it then get blamed for having to fix it and then everyone forgets who hosed it all up in the first place and elects another republican. Going back to like Nixon.
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Jan 22, 2024 05:36
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Nelson Mandingo posted:I wanna add to this and point out that Biden is doing more deportations than Trump. I seem to remember that Trump actually used a different reporting for his deportations that counts only very specific deportations, whereas I assume Biden would use the same that Trump did.
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Jan 22, 2024 05:36
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Given how many people in this country have been shameless Trump supporters . . .I hope not. I don't want to live in a country those people are happy about. Trump got 63 million votes in 2016 and I thought that was a hard cap, squeezing turnout of every chud possible Then 2020 Trump got another 11 million votes somehow and I have idea where they came from since 2016 I don't want to know how many more he picks up in 2024
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Jan 22, 2024 05:38
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More people are coming to America now because the economy is better and there are actually jobs and hiring here.
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Jan 22, 2024 05:38
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B B posted:Isn't this a phenomenon that affects both candidates? The issue is that Trump voters are voting for Trump and Biden voters are voting against Trump. Biden didn't win the primary by being the candidate most beloved by the base. His entire pitch was "I'm acceptable to you and have the best shot against Trump." So it's no surprise that a voting base that was bound together by the unwavering need to crawl through broken glass to vote against Trump isn't hyped by the guy the settled on to do it. 95% of people who will vote for Trump in November will be affirming their support for Trump. 30% of people who will vote for Biden in November will be affirming their support for Biden.
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Jan 22, 2024 05:39
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Bar Ran Dun posted:You keep asserting a generality as if it’s should be just swallowed whole true. Why don’t you get concrete: I believe (maybe correctly, maybe incorrectly, no one really knows for sure) that the sheer volume of deficit spending done by Biden (and Trump to be fair) was the trigger for most of the inflation we saw. Some was corporate and automative dealer profit margin growth but that was opportunistic within the broader inflationary environment. We spent trillions of dollars without paying for it in taxes and ended up paying for it through inflation. I don't really object to any one thing specifically and a lot of the stuff in the IRA I would support in isolation, it's the sheer volume of it, failure to neutralize it with tax increases, and the inflationary consequences. Main Paineframe posted:"Small but catastrophic risk of fascism"? Trump actively tried to overturn the result of the 2020 election. He called up state election officials and pressured them to "find" enough votes to flip their state to him. His campaign actively organized an effort to send fraudulent election certificates to the federal government in hopes that Pence would certify them instead of the real ones. He pressured the Justice Department to declare the election fraudulent. He sent a mob to storm the Capitol to block the counting of the electoral votes. To this day, he insists that he was the real winner of the 2020 election. And in the lame duck period following his November defeat, he purged a number of government positions and filled them with loyalists he hoped would support his claims. I think that the checks and balances in our system are robust enough to keep him in check. They were in 2016-2020. None of us are prophets and I could be wrong and that would be Very Bad. On the various immigration stuff; y'all underestimate the sheer number of people that would come here if it was open season on immigration, would probably exceed the current population of the states. America is good at assimilating people but there has to be a limit and a system of choosing. I have no clue what that limit should be quantitatively. Having to implement some sort of system choosing, we should make it benefit people already here and should follow it. 12 years a lurker fucked around with this message at 05:45 on Jan 22, 2024 |
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Jan 22, 2024 05:42
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I just hope that people voting for Biden will be doing it because they're anti-Trump. Biden isn't the best canidate, but the Democrats literally have no one else to run. I guess it's possible someone will jump into the election and be a great canidate, but I don't see that happening. All we have is Biden right now.
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Jan 22, 2024 05:44
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12 years a lurker posted:On the various immigration stuff; y'all underestimate the sheer number of people that would come here if it was open season on immigration, would probably exceed the current population of the states Ok great. I'll let someone more economically minded handle the first part. Could you point to which presidential candidate has "open borders" as part of their platform? Because I'm not sure it's Biden when he has more than double border deportations in 26 months than Trump had in 24. edit: To be clear. I'm actually on the right-wing side of this issue in that I don't support open borders either. But then, no nation on the planet has open borders. Nelson Mandingo fucked around with this message at 05:50 on Jan 22, 2024 |
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Jan 22, 2024 05:47
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12 years a lurker posted:I believe (maybe correctly, maybe incorrectly, no one really knows for sure) that the sheer volume of deficit spending done by Biden (and Trump to be fair) was the trigger for most of the inflation we saw. Oh honey bless your “no one really knows for sure” heart. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/WP86-Bernanke-Blanchard_6.13.pdf There’s been other research and a general over view for you is that there are several causes: supply chain, energy (Ukraine war), greed ( corporations using the opportunity to raise prices), demand changes, usually all ahead of spending policy.
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Jan 22, 2024 05:57
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 Biden's deficit spending was so inflationary that it caused the same amount of inflation in the EU as in the US
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Jan 22, 2024 06:06
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12 years a lurker posted:I believe (maybe correctly, maybe incorrectly, no one really knows for sure) that the sheer volume of deficit spending done by Biden (and Trump to be fair) was the trigger for most of the inflation we saw. Some was corporate and automative dealer profit margin growth but that was opportunistic within the broader inflationary environment. We spent trillions of dollars without paying for it in taxes and ended up paying for it through inflation. I don't really object to any one thing specifically and a lot of the stuff in the IRA I would support in isolation, it's the sheer volume of it, failure to neutralize it with tax increases, and the inflationary consequences. If that's true, why do you suppose post-2020 inflation was less severe and more quickly contained in the US than it was in many countries that did less deficit spending in response to the pandemic? It seems that far from "no one really knows for sure" that the evidence points directly opposite your claim. https://www.marketplace.org/2023/07/17/inflation-remains-high-in-most-of-world-as-it-cools-in-the-u-s/
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Jan 22, 2024 06:07
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so the actual cause of inflation during the last 3 years was the blowback from the supply chain going to hell during the pandemic and the economic consequences of the war in ukraine right
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Jan 22, 2024 06:16
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A big flaming stink posted:so the actual cause of inflation during the last 3 years was the blowback from the supply chain going to hell during the pandemic and the economic consequences of the war in ukraine right That and monopoly price collusion.
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Jan 22, 2024 06:19
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Nelson Mandingo posted:Ok great. I'll let someone more economically minded handle the first part. Could you point to which presidential candidate has "open borders" as part of their platform? None do. As such it has never been the deciding factor on my vote and it won't be in 2024. People seized on my thinking that candidate Trump's election policies back in 2016 (build a fence with Mexico, crack down on trade with China) would be benign to slightly positive to ask why I thought illegal immigration was a bad thing and so I answered in good faith since it was asked. I didn't vote for Trump (or anyone) in 2016 and liked both candidates at the time. Bar Ran Dun posted:Oh honey bless your “no one really knows for sure” heart. The people who had those opinions made bad forecasts on the length and duration of the inflation burst as it was starting. Demand is directly tied to deficit spending and tax cuts - print dollars, put them in people (or companies) hands, more demand. Anyway Helicopter Ben is not exactly the most unbiased / credible source here. The economy is complex and hard to measure and really no one can be fully certain but in general it's better to trust accurate forecasters without a clear preexisting bias. Academic and government economists who try their hands at making market predictions in the business or financial world generally can't proverbially pass the fizzbuzz test of making short to medium term forecasts with stakes on the line. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 22, 2024 06:23
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Just a reminder that it's generally pointless to try to change someone's opinions with evidence when their existing opinions aren't based on evidence.
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Jan 22, 2024 06:29
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Yeah dude sounds like my brother when he tries to convince me you can support republican policies without being stupid or evil.
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Jan 22, 2024 06:31
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12 years a lurker posted:The economy is complex and hard to measure and really no one can be fully certain but in general it's better to trust accurate forecasters without a clear preexisting bias. Academic and government economists who try their hands at making market predictions in the business or financial world generally can't proverbially pass the fizzbuzz test of making short to medium term forecasts with stakes on the line. Several posters have posted evidence, please address it directly and not with vague hand waving or post your own evidence. Sophistry like this doesn’t cut it. Furthermore these aren’t predictions these are analysis done after the inflation event has mostly past, did you bother to look at them? Let’s pick one single point, this is a good one: James Garfield posted:
Why don’t you just try to address that.
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Jan 22, 2024 06:33
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James Garfield posted:
If that's measured in Euros and not dollars that's actually the best case I've seen someone make on the issue from that perspective.
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Jan 22, 2024 06:34
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Why are y'all engaging with this kid? He has no evidence of any claim and he refuses to respond to evidence against his claims. He's clearly not discussing in good faith.
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Jan 22, 2024 06:39
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12 years a lurker posted:If that's measured in Euros and not dollars that's actually the best case I've seen someone make on the issue from that perspective. Lmao it’s percentages, not euros, not dollars. Ignore this person that can’t be hosed to even read one chart singled out for them.
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Jan 22, 2024 06:40
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12 years a lurker posted:If that's measured in Euros and not dollars that's actually the best case I've seen someone make on the issue from that perspective. If that’s true you have clearly not looked at this much at all. “Did other countries have similar problems at the same time?” should be literally the first question.
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Jan 22, 2024 06:42
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Xiahou Dun posted:If that’s true you have clearly not looked at this much at all. “Did other countries have similar problems at the same time?” should be literally the first question. Looks nobody can know what causes inflation, but me I can it's Biden despite all the evidence that I haven't looked at to the contrary.
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Jan 22, 2024 06:44
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Several posters have posted evidence, please address it directly and not with vague hand waving or post your own evidence. Sophistry like this doesn’t cut it. Complex analysis after the fact is too easy to reach a motivated conclusion. For whatever it's worth, I was worried that inflation would get bad as soon as the American Rescue Act was passed and then it did. And I remember all the prominent people talking about how it would be transitory at the time. Post hoc reasoning after the dust has settled is a lot less convincing than accurate forecasts. Here's a link to someone else who got it right real-time and put her reputation and personal investments on the line: https://www.lynalden.com/february-2021-newsletter/ I opened the link, saw the author and publication date, and closed it. If you want to actually change my mind on this, if you can find someone who had those viewpoints and also got the amount and duration of upcoming inflation vaguely right from back in mid 2021 or earlier, not after the fact in mid 2023, please link that.
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Jan 22, 2024 06:59
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Crows Turn Off posted:Why are y'all engaging with this kid? He has no evidence of any claim and he refuses to respond to evidence against his claims. He's clearly not discussing in good faith. We are required by current moderation policies to engage with a user as if they are acting in good faith, or else we are liable to be punished for not responding to their rebuttals. Accusing a user of acting in bad faith is also against the rules.
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Jan 22, 2024 07:02
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Shitloads of forecasts are made all the time so you can pretty much always find someone who "got it right". You need to do the analysis afterward to see if they actually got it right or if they just got lucky
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Jan 22, 2024 07:04
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12 years a lurker posted:I opened the link, saw the author and publication date, and closed it. If you want to actually change my mind on this, if you can find someone who had those viewpoints and also got the amount and duration of upcoming inflation vaguely right from back in mid 2021 or earlier, not after the fact in mid 2023, please link that. there was actually a rather famous economist who put out a very famous visual diagram on the subject that you might be interested in by the name of Kirk Johnson regarding inflation relating to those viewpoints using the price of goat products as an example, really interesting forecasts from around that time period, you should look into it, i'd link it here but i don't have it off the top of my head, i'm sure an astute researcher like yourself can find it though 
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Jan 22, 2024 07:17
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Crows Turn Off posted:Why are y'all engaging with this kid? He has no evidence of any claim and he refuses to respond to evidence against his claims. He's clearly not discussing in good faith. If an undecided voter was hungry they wouldn't know whether they should try to eat a hamburger or a bowl of rocks. He's doing his best.
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Jan 22, 2024 07:22
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