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Bellmaker posted:https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/21/politics/new-hampshire-primary-poll-trump-haley-desantis/index.html It's been over. The GOP is a cult and Trump is their leader, simple as that. They think he's anointed by God, that the FBI is a Deep State hell bent on taking him down, that the election was rigged and that 1/6 was Antifa BLM Soros Operatives. Seriously, more than half of every GOP voter honestly believes this. Trying to analyze polls and candidates through a traditional lens is absolutely 100% no longer possible, but people keep trying. I don't think most people really grasp exactly what we're dealing with here, which is the complete abandonment of reason and truth - full stop - let alone tradition. None of this is loving normal and it's honestly unprecedented in my lifetime. I've been alive for the Nixon and Reagan landslides but neither was like this. Phlegmish posted:Wonder what he'd do if he dropped out. Endorsing Trump would be incredibly humiliating at this point, but he's just spent half a year calling Haley a treasonous China-loving bitch, so that'd be a hard sell too. It doesn't matter. He'll absolutely endorse Trump, no one will care and he'll go back to destroying the State I live in.
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Jan 22, 2024 02:27
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Well, I guess you're right. He did, in fact, just endorse Trump.
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Jan 22, 2024 02:29
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Crunch Buttsteak posted:Yeah, a big part of DeSantis' appeal to conservatives outside of Florida was the "proof" that his win in 2022 was a sign that the Culture War was alive and well, and people still enthusiastically voted for him after his passage of "controversial" (anti-LGBT) laws and a public fight with Disney. Like, it wasn't the man himself, but the idea that anti-gay and anti-trans bills could be passed and actually be beneficial to the person passing them was a shot in the arm for a bunch of conservative Evangelical types. It was a sign to them that their bigoted causes are now political wins, and they should keep fighting that good fight. Interesting point. Part of the discourse among certain sections of the right is that they are the plucky underdogs protecting free speech, the rational exchange of ideas, and true critical thought against an ideologically intolerant elite who utterly and one-sidedly dominate the media and academia. When your side not only gains power, but immediately turns out to be even more intolerant to the extent that it can't be handwaved away, it ruins that gratifying narrative for some of the more self-aware Republicans. DeSantis's playbook worked well in Florida for whatever reason, but it's not easily transferable to every other part of the country. Especially places like New Hampshire, where Haley was projected to completely destroy DeSantis, despite presenting herself as a more traditionally evangelical (yes I know she is actually a Methodist) Republican, which they usually don't much like either in New England.
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Jan 22, 2024 10:21
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It's important to keep in mind that Ron's agenda has not "worked well". It just hasn't overturned more than 2 decades of Republican rule within 3 years. Almost everything that he's done that you know him for, other then being a COVID moron, has taken place between April of 2021(Riot idiocy) and May of 2023(finally jumped in the race). Prior to that, he was a JEB level tolerable evil outside of COVID. The ratfucking of Florida's Felon Voting Amendment wasn't his baby, and he just went along with it. Though maybe you could push his non COVID bullshit 4/5 months if you want for his idiotic raids on felons who voted. As for his agenda's success, it's been largely a case of passing a hateful thing that gets national press and attention but is then later halted by the courts. His Don't Say Gay poo poo is about the only thing he's done that wasn't stopped or extremely blunted by the courts at first chance. Given the lightning fast speed of our legal system, it will probably only get worse for his agenda. All of it is clearly just a hasty PR job for his run at the White House with no care for whether it sticks or even does anything. It just had to last for 2022 and 2023, while not completely collapsing before November of 2024.
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Jan 22, 2024 11:21
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Mooseontheloose posted:He looks like Homelander if Homelander didn't work out. we have lander at home Staluigi fucked around with this message at 13:30 on Jan 22, 2024 |
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Jan 22, 2024 13:06
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I was going to go into a way too in depth post about how Haley is only running as a backup to when Trump goes to jail or his brain LITERALLY starts oozing out his ears. But thinking on it I can't honestly picture a single scenario where they wouldn't just run the drooling/jailed/corpse of Trump and be totally fine with that.
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Jan 22, 2024 18:05
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Staluigi posted:we have lander at home Ronlander Chonklander Ron isn't all that big, I just couldn't resist Chonklander.
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Jan 22, 2024 18:26
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Retro42 posted:I was going to go into a way too in depth post about how Haley is only running as a backup to when Trump goes to jail or his brain LITERALLY starts oozing out his ears. But thinking on it I can't honestly picture a single scenario where they wouldn't just run the drooling/jailed/corpse of Trump and be totally fine with that. because i dont think the donors or the top ghoul brass want trump. they want haley in hopes she just runs a steady ship, maybe walks back on the social poo poo and cuts taxes. wont happen.
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Jan 22, 2024 18:27
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Trump was able to get nominated in 2016 because he was entertaining enough to get a plurality out of a clown car of zero charisma nobodies, and the establishment pick immediately crumbled under his bullying. I am still expecting Trump to get the nomination, but the anti-Trump Republicans now have a single candidate to rally around instead of splitting their votes between the jebs of the world.
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Jan 22, 2024 18:57
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ponzicar posted:Trump was able to get nominated in 2016 because he was entertaining enough to get a plurality out of a clown car of zero charisma nobodies, and the establishment pick immediately crumbled under his bullying. I am still expecting Trump to get the nomination, but the anti-Trump Republicans now have a single candidate to rally around instead of splitting their votes between the jebs of the world. The problem is that Haley is assuming DeSantis' voters were anti-Trump which seems to be quite the opposite.
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Jan 22, 2024 19:06
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Retro42 posted:I was going to go into a way too in depth post about how Haley is only running as a backup to when Trump goes to jail or his brain LITERALLY starts oozing out his ears. But thinking on it I can't honestly picture a single scenario where they wouldn't just run the drooling/jailed/corpse of Trump and be totally fine with that. But the earliest conspiracies would be “he was murdered by the swamp” vs “he’s not dead! It’s a plot to trick the swamp!”
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Jan 22, 2024 19:11
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Bellmaker posted:The problem is that Haley is assuming DeSantis' voters were anti-Trump which seems to be quite the opposite. I would love to know who Desantis voters were. “We want Trump but less crimes and younger?”
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Jan 22, 2024 19:15
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smackfu posted:I would love to know who Desantis voters were. “We want Trump but less crimes and younger?” I'm sure you can find all three of them in a room in Florida somewhere.
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Jan 22, 2024 19:18
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smackfu posted:I would love to know who Desantis voters were. “We want Trump but less crimes and younger?” I'm guessing unironically yes. It seems like for primary goers there's is a fair amount of people who vote for "owns the libs", and the clown show that was the last couple years of Florida legislation was enough to tip the scales. Alternatively, Haley is just too foreign and/or female for them.
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Jan 22, 2024 19:28
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Retro42 posted:I was going to go into a way too in depth post about how Haley is only running as a backup to when Trump goes to jail or his brain LITERALLY starts oozing out his ears. This was true of everyone in the GOP primary except Christie and Hutch. That is why aside from those two no one attacked Trump or said he was a bad president or bad for the country. Clown president tries fascist power grab after losing election, you are running “against” him but don’t say that any of this was bad or he was bad means that you were always conceding the race to him if he was able to actually run. It means you were only trying to place hold in case he died or went to jail, in any other situation you could only try for his veep or build a little name recognition and hope you didn’t piss off his knuckle draggers who you will need to win the primary and general in the future.
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Jan 22, 2024 20:12
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smackfu posted:I would love to know who Desantis voters were. “We want Trump but less crimes and younger?” There was the push for a "competent Trump", someone who would do and pass all of the things that Trump and Co. wanted/did but had the decency to shut the gently caress up about it. They want the results without the President telling people to drink bleach and all that fun stuff. As you've seen, there's not enough primary voters to support Diet Trump over the real thing.
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Jan 22, 2024 20:14
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smackfu posted:I would love to know who Desantis voters were. “We want Trump but less crimes and younger?” sorta. Desantis is basicaly the pick for the college educated terminally online chuds. the ones that post on /pol/ and cry about woke poo poo and or the weird trad types who want to walk civil rights back to the bible times. alot of those chuds are happy trumps a bigoted monster but get mad that he isnt a believer OR that he just fucks up constantly. most of them will drift back to trump or already did a while ago. desantis lost the moderates to haley months ago if not longer.
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Jan 22, 2024 20:20
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In the horse race coverage of the primary it’s only occasionally pointed out that Trump is essentially an incumbent in the GOP primary. The fact that the entire party is now a cult of Trump and almost everyone in the GOP accepts that is why you have this very strange race where people are in their running against the guy but simultaneously talking up how great he was, instead of Trump being a losing loser who lost but just won’t go away. The party, starting with Mitch right after January 6, then with McCarthy going down to kiss the ring, had bought into that Trump shouldn’t go away and they need and want him to stay. The fact that Trump is an incumbent and is at fifty to sixty percent instead of seventy five to ninety percent is actually not that great IMO. Everyone would think it a huge deal if Biden was only pulling sixty percent of Dems against his challengers.
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Jan 22, 2024 20:25
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ponzicar posted:Trump was able to get nominated in 2016 because he was entertaining enough to get a plurality out of a clown car of zero charisma nobodies, and the establishment pick immediately crumbled under his bullying. I am still expecting Trump to get the nomination, but the anti-Trump Republicans now have a single candidate to rally around instead of splitting their votes between the jebs of the world. Yeah, but it’s also the 2024 GOP and not the 2016 GOP. Plenty of Republicans spent the last eight years stewing themselves in Fox/OANN and Facebook marinade and internalized the idea that Trump was Actually Good And Virtuous, or decided that ever admitting the party made a mistake was the worst thing they could do to their smug liberal co-workers and so quintupled down on how great and flawless Trump is. And some small sliver of Business Republicans saw the rest of the party and had enough of a breakthrough to jump ship, and won’t come back even for a “sensible” option. Trump had maybe 30-40% of the GOP voting for him in 2016, and got up to 50% near the end when momentum and voters’ desire to just loving end the race carried him over the top. He’s starting 2024 at 50% and won’t drop below that. I don’t think Haley wins a single state, especially not SC.
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Jan 22, 2024 20:30
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Zwabu posted:In the horse race coverage of the primary it’s only occasionally pointed out that Trump is essentially an incumbent in the GOP primary. The fact that the entire party is now a cult of Trump and almost everyone in the GOP accepts that is why you have this very strange race where people are in their running against the guy but simultaneously talking up how great he was, instead of Trump being a losing loser who lost but just won’t go away. Well isn't there that moron nobody who will surely make a strong showing in the NH Dem primary? I mean, I saw him on TV once, I think his name might have been Dean or something but who can tell? He certainly did ramble on when I saw him on TV once. Very compelling character, I'll tell you what.
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Jan 22, 2024 20:31
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PT6A posted:Well isn't there that moron nobody who will surely make a strong showing in the NH Dem primary? I mean, I saw him on TV once, I think his name might have been Dean or something but who can tell? Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson are the only names on the NH primary ballot, so they will probably do better than you would expect since they are technically the only options. An official write-in campaign for Biden is currently polling at around 55%, so they probably still won't win. Biden removed his name from the ballot and RFK Jr. never qualified before he eventually decided to run as an independent anyway.
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Jan 22, 2024 20:36
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Dapper_Swindler posted:. desantis lost the moderates to haley months ago if not longer. The funny thing about Haley is that she's basically a capitalist psychopath's dream version of a "can we have a Republican Obama? Or a Comeptent Palin?" Candidate. She's smart, competent, brown, female, and will absolutely stare you straight in the eye and swear on a Bible that the sky has always been green and you're the one spouting crazy "blue sky" nonsense if doing so would get her five extra dollars in her pocket. Just absolutely shameless while also smart enough to not poo poo the bed regularly like Trump does. The problem is that means she's also smart enough to not be explicitly racist or sexist on a regular basis, or even to take steps like taking down the confederate flag after it's used in a race massacre. Which is not what trump.supporters want. They want a leader who will support right wing terrorism, and Haley is smart enough to know that poo poo screws up the flow of money into her pockets.
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Jan 22, 2024 20:39
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Pants Donkey posted:Trump dying would be years of conspiracy theories as to how he was murdered. Like there will be no natural causes death his cult would accept, even a decade after his political career ended along with any incentive. Plus he legally owns the Death Note, which only exacerbates all of the conspiracy theories.
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Jan 22, 2024 20:50
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The funny thing about Haley is that she's basically a capitalist psychopath's dream version of a "can we have a Republican Obama? Or a Comeptent Palin?" Candidate. She's smart, competent, brown, female, and will absolutely stare you straight in the eye and swear on a Bible that the sky has always been green and you're the one spouting crazy "blue sky" nonsense if doing so would get her five extra dollars in her pocket. Just absolutely shameless while also smart enough to not poo poo the bed regularly like Trump does. yeah. my dad wants to like her but he is pissed that she is so awful about abortion(aka she is fine with total bans and poo poo)
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Jan 22, 2024 20:55
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C. Everett Koop posted:There was the push for a "competent Trump", someone who would do and pass all of the things that Trump and Co. wanted/did but had the decency to shut the gently caress up about it. They want the results without the President telling people to drink bleach and all that fun stuff. Being Diet Trump isn't a bad thing in the primary, you just needed to call out the corruption. Trump was a bad guy but I want to continue his policies. They couldn't even muster that.
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Jan 22, 2024 20:59
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Mooseontheloose posted:Being Diet Trump isn't a bad thing in the primary, you just needed to call out the corruption. Trump was a bad guy but I want to continue his policies. They couldn't even muster that. This goes against "Trump is God's Chosen and the greatest human and leader who ever lived." Going against that pisses off the base voter who you need to win future primaries and general elections. That's why they couldn't muster it. It did make me wonder why they even bothered though. I would not have thought "in case he dies or is jailed" sweepstakes would have drawn so many contestants.
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Jan 23, 2024 00:24
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I heard an NPR segment today interviewing Republicans who will reluctantly pull the lever for Trump even though they say they don't want to. A lot of them, along with plenty of people I run into here in NE FL MAGA County, seem to say that they dislike both parties but Trump is "the only one they can trust" and someone who "looks out for the people" and I just... I'm not sure where to start with that. Donald Trump doesn't give two shits about anyone but himself and the idea of him being trustworthy is a whole other level of delusion. He really did tap into a large segment of the "both parties bad" populace. And these people aren't wrong to point out that establishment politicians on either side of the aisle have let us down for decades but I'm not sure how they landed on Trump to be the baton carrier for trustworthiness and compassion for the little guy. Jesus Christ.
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Jan 23, 2024 00:57
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BiggerBoat posted:I heard an NPR segment today interviewing Republicans who will reluctantly pull the lever for Trump even though they say they don't want to. A lot of them, along with plenty of people I run into here in NE FL MAGA County, seem to say that they dislike both parties but Trump is "the only one they can trust" and someone who "looks out for the people" and I just... i think its because 2 factors. first is the usual big 80s big money man who was symbol of wealth. second is dudes a tabula rasa for alot of chuds, he is blank slate they can put all their nostalgia and dreams onto and they can build their little paracosim around with him as the sun. like yeah alot of it is because bigotry and such but so was desantis. its because trump represents when they were happy like the 80s/90s etc.
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Jan 23, 2024 01:09
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BiggerBoat posted:I heard an NPR segment today interviewing Republicans who will reluctantly pull the lever for Trump even though they say they don't want to. A lot of them, along with plenty of people I run into here in NE FL MAGA County, seem to say that they dislike both parties but Trump is "the only one they can trust" and someone who "looks out for the people" and I just... When I was much younger in college, I always thought that when more and more people saw that the system was breaking down they would collectively do what needed to be done to change the system. Instead what they do is gravitate towards the loudest blowhard that tells them what they want to hear. Talk about young and Naive.
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Jan 23, 2024 01:15
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BiggerBoat posted:I heard an NPR segment today interviewing Republicans who will reluctantly pull the lever for Trump even though they say they don't want to. A lot of them, along with plenty of people I run into here in NE FL MAGA County, seem to say that they dislike both parties but Trump is "the only one they can trust" and someone who "looks out for the people" and I just... A lot of people, especially in the South, are culturally Republican. They don't really have any dogmatic or deeply held political beliefs, and if you talk to them about most things they'll be reasonably agreeable. It's just that they were raised to be Republican, all their family is and virtually everyone they know is one too. So they defend their party and support it, even if they don't like a particular guy. It's their team, so they're going to support their guy. It's a lot like Christians who never go to church, never read the bible, and at best might say grace before large holiday meals. They'll be more than happy to join you on a wildly ungodly party weekend, as it has absolutely no bearing on anything other than being a checkbox on forms. However it will occasionally and randomly pop up in some performative or weird way that they're absolutely a good Christian.
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Jan 23, 2024 01:54
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It's not complex. They're racists and they believe Trump will hurt minorities because he has in the past and will continue to.
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Jan 23, 2024 02:51
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Some of it is also that swing voters and independents tend to be massive idiots, just completely uneducated and tuned out of politics and only step back in for presidential races where they bounce off of concepts like “maybe the government should do things” and “people who aren’t white men should have value in our society” because their main understanding of the Constitution and what crises confronts America comes from having recently re-watched 24 on a streaming service
skeleton warrior fucked around with this message at 06:48 on Jan 23, 2024 |
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Jan 23, 2024 03:28
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:It's not complex. They're racists and they believe Trump will hurt minorities because he has in the past and will continue to. Please don't minimize the existence of complete loving idiots who vote horrendously without an actively racist motive.
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Jan 23, 2024 03:47
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Personally I think it's dangerous to assume any fascist chooses fascism because they are stupid. They know what they are doing. They might also be ignorant / stupid, but there isn't anyone out there who doesn't realize Trump is a huge racist. Anyone who says otherwise is lying. He's been open about it for decades now.
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Jan 23, 2024 06:48
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smackfu posted:I would love to know who Desantis voters were. “We want Trump but less crimes and younger?” I think Desantis supporters were anti Trump, and a big part of why his campaign went nowhere was that he tried to do "Trumpism without Trump" (very popular with Claremont Institute nazis but not actual voters) when his supporters were anti Trump. Not that he would have won if he were anti Trump.
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Jan 23, 2024 07:50
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:Personally I think it's dangerous to assume any fascist chooses fascism because they are stupid. They know what they are doing. They might also be ignorant / stupid, but there isn't anyone out there who doesn't realize Trump is a huge racist. Anyone who says otherwise is lying. He's been open about it for decades now. This is surface-level analysis. The entire state of West Virginia did not wake up one day and decide to be horrible bigots just because. The narrative of 'white privilege' holds true in a general sense, and especially in metro areas, but if you are a laid-off coal miner living in a trailer in a declining 98% white town, and your only son has just died from an overdose, you probably don't feel very privileged. In fact, you are likely to resent the suggestion, especially when it comes from Democrats who are supposed to have your interests at heart. Then along comes Trump, who not only will not disparage you for being deplorable white trash, but promises he will magically get back all of the jobs that went overseas. That's where the core of his support comes from. That's why he's popular in these areas. Their main motivation is not racism or a desire to stick it to uppity minorities, which often barely exist where they live, and in fact many of them voted for Obama in 2008. This is obviously not to say that Trump himself is not a horrible racist and a horrible person in general, or that people shouldn't be criticized for voting for him. However, presenting elections (especially in a two-party system) as a Manichean battle of good versus evil, without examining the structural (particularly economic) factors that might cause people to vote a certain way, is just lazy.
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Jan 23, 2024 08:13
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That is absolutely why he is super popular in those specific areas, where they exist, but that is not actually the CORE of his support. The core of his support is generally the Slightly Better Off Than Average.
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Jan 23, 2024 08:45
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Yeah, I believe the median Trump supporter is well educated with a higher than average income. You have to be doing fairly well to have the time to watch all that fox news.
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Jan 23, 2024 09:14
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Gyges posted:It's important to keep in mind that Ron's agenda has not "worked well". It just hasn't overturned more than 2 decades of Republican rule within 3 years. Almost everything that he's done that you know him for, other then being a COVID moron, has taken place between April of 2021(Riot idiocy) and May of 2023(finally jumped in the race). Prior to that, he was a JEB level tolerable evil outside of COVID. The ratfucking of Florida's Felon Voting Amendment wasn't his baby, and he just went along with it. Though maybe you could push his non COVID bullshit 4/5 months if you want for his idiotic raids on felons who voted. Fair point. I should have said 'worked well enough' in the sense that DeSantis wasn't immediately disavowed by his own party, which is what almost certainly would have happened in some other states. I've seen people in this thread conclude from this that it is not a good electoral strategy to double down on the culture war, but I don't necessarily agree. This sudden focus on things like critical race theory in high schools might seem random, but is actually quite clever. It plays on the long-standing and not entirely unwarranted right-wing fear of leftist institutional domination, as well as white fears of displacement and the loss of ascendancy. There is also a legitimate discussion to be had about whether or not it is appropriate to teach this subject in high schools, even if the arguments are often made in bad faith. It's often pointed out with glee that many of the people who adamantly oppose CRT don't understand what it is, that they lack the educational background or even cognitive capacities to understand it, and this is true, but the same obviously also holds true for the average high school student. In the past decade and a half, we've seen an endless stream of people on places like tumblr, X, YouTube, and TikTok using and abusing popularized academic concepts that they barely grasp even on a surface level, let alone the complexities and nuances involved in their original formulation. In a way that's indicative of the way popular culture has shifted in a certain direction, but it also has a tendency to backfire spectacularly. So the Republican culture warriors have focused on a very specific strain of sociology that has built-in controversy even among parts of the left, pretended it was something that Democrats uniformly wanted to impose on the curriculum, and then proceeded to attack their own strawman. It's not a bad strategy at all. It puts Democrats in the position of having to either deny that they support CRT, which puts them at odds with the more identity-focused parts of their own base, or defend it, which can be electoral poison in competitive districts in certain parts of the country. The problem with DeSantis is that he took it one step further, with the book bans and Don't Say Gay and such. Not only should children be shielded from certain topics even if they are presented neutrally and factually, people are not even allowed to voluntarily seek out information on specific subjects, as determined by the government. Doing this immediately undermines the previously established rational-thinking, freedom-loving underdog narrative, for obvious reasons. Suddenly it's your own side that is censoring and banning opposing viewpoints. It creates a massive amount of cognitive dissonance in certain Republican voters, and repels enough of them that it turns from a winning into a losing strategy.
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Jan 23, 2024 09:20
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reignonyourparade posted:That is absolutely why he is super popular in those specific areas, where they exist, but that is not actually the CORE of his support. The core of his support is generally the Slightly Better Off Than Average. Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah, I believe the median Trump supporter is well educated with a higher than average income. You have to be doing fairly well to have the time to watch all that fox news. I've seen statistics on this in the past, but I don't remember them by heart. If I had to guess, I would say that (white) Trump voters are slightly better off compared to the general electorate, but that they are worse off than the average white voter, which is possible due to race and income being correlated in the United States. As for education, I am almost certain that they are less educated on average, if not generally, then at least (again) compared to the white electorate. With level of education (negatively correlated) being a more reliable indicator than income when it comes to voting for Trump. Could be wrong, but that's what would make the most sense given existing voting patterns. My example was specific mostly to the Rust Belt and places like West Virginia, true enough. I won't deny that a large factor in his popularity elsewhere is due to the 'white backlash' that periodically occurs in American politics. The point I wanted to make more generally is that it is counterproductive to talk about Trump voters in these moralistic and slightly melodramatic terms. Yes, personality does play a role in how you vote, but far more important than that are structural economic, sociological, and cultural factors. People do not exist in a vacuum. A specific ideology and worldview is not a static quality that you as a person inherently possess. If you want to change society, you have to start by understanding what makes people tick, including the hated Other. Note that, again, this does not necessarily extend to the individual of Trump himself, and that there are many 'objective' reasons to condemn him personally, including the fact that he consciously manipulates and preys on people's insecurities and fears simply to gain power for himself, regardless of whether or not he actually believes the things he says.
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Jan 23, 2024 09:52
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