predicto posted:

So do the draftniks here think Maye is going to be a Josh Rosen 2.0 bust? Or just that Daniels has greater potential?

Bismack Billabongo posted:

Malik Willis was being projected high because he has good physical tools and is a good interview. He absolutely cannot play quarterback at the nfl level. Perfectly nice guy who should be, best case scenario, a practice squad guy who is your emergency third string QB. Not saying the titans did him any favors because vrabel was very clearly not excited about him but he could not read a defense at all, he ran into sacks at an astonishing rate if his first read wasn’t there. He would benefit from going elsewhere and the titans would benefit from having somebody behind Levis who isn’t totally unable to play the position.

Another banger of a pick by our old GM lol

Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:

I wanna know who was the first pundit to call TLaw a "generational prospect".

YOLOsubmarine posted:

Lawrence was the number 1 recruit in country coming out of high school, won a national
Championship his first year starting, went back to the national championship the next year after an undefeated regular season, improved each year in college and has prototypical size and arm strength.

He was legitimately a generational prospect, he looked the part at basically every stop. Sometimes guys just don’t live up to their potential.

Henchman of Santa posted:

What? People draft for QB depth in every round.

Alaois posted:

They phrased it kinda weird but i think what they meant was "its weird for the first round to pass without any QBs taken"

Bismack Billabongo posted:

fsif posted:

Is there a single poster in TFF that has Maye above Daniels?

Canned Sunshine posted:

Mitch 2.0

quote:

1. Chicago Bears (via CAR)
Caleb Williams, QB, USC

Are the Bears really going to pass up the chance to take the top quarterback in back-to-back draft classes? I just don't see it. Last year, of course, they got a huge haul from Carolina for trading down, with this pick included in the deal. This year they have to decide whether to keep Justin Fields or trade down again, for a bounty that likely will be even bigger. Here are the two biggest reasons why I'd keep the pick if I were running the Chicago front office:

Williams is a better prospect than Fields. We've now seen three NFL seasons from Fields, and he hasn't put everything together on a consistent basis. There are too many unknowns for a guy with 38 career starts. He has completed just 60.2% of his passes while throwing 40 touchdown passes with 30 interceptions and has averaged just 7.0 yards per attempt in his career. Williams, my top-ranked prospect, is ahead of Fields as a passer -- the USC product has the skill set and instincts to be a top-tier quarterback at the next level.

Taking Williams resets the Bears' quarterback clock, which matters in an age when having a quarterback on a rookie contract means teams can build a better roster around them. If they keep Fields, they'd have to decide on his fifth-year option this spring and then extend his contract within the next year. Are they ready to do that? With a rookie, they'd get four years at a much less expensive cap number before having to pay up.

Now, Chicago doesn't have ideal leverage to trade Fields, but it only takes two suitors to create a market. Remember that when the Cardinals traded Josh Rosen one year after drafting him at No. 10 overall, they got a second-round pick from the Dolphins. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bears get a first-rounder in return for Fields.


2. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

The Commanders have a much more straightforward decision than the Bears. Sam Howell, who led the league in interceptions in 2023, is not the guy. They have to take a quarterback in a draft that has a clear top tier of three signal-callers: Williams, Daniels and Drake Maye (North Carolina). There's a drop-off in the class after that. With Washington getting an opportunity to take the No. 2 quarterback here, why did I go with Daniels?

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner improved so much in 2023, throwing 40 touchdown passes to just four interceptions while going up against a tough SEC schedule. In December, I went deep on his strengths, weaknesses and future, so you can see my full thoughts on his game there. The bottom line is it's tight between Daniels and Maye on my board, but Daniels would be an tremendous fit for a Washington roster that has some young playmakers on offense. Maye's inconsistency at the end of the season is enough for me to put Daniels at No. 2. The reality, though, is the Commanders just hired their new general manager and still don't have a coach, so there's a lot to figure out about which direction they go.


3. New England Patriots
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

It's a total makeover in New England, which will have a new coach and front office structure for the first time since Bill Belichick joined the organization in 2000. New coach Jerod Mayo, whose background is on defense, inherits a total mess on offense. The Patriots ranked second to last in the league in offensive points per game (12.9) and their offensive line ranked last in pass block win rate (43.5%). Linemen Trent Brown and Mike Onwenu and tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki are among the team's free agents. What better way to start a new era -- and possible offensive rebuild -- than to take an elite quarterback at the top of the draft?

Maye had some ups and downs in 2023, but he's an outstanding deep-ball thrower in a 6-foot-4 frame. He takes care of the football and has some dual-threat ability. There's a ton to like in his potential. And while the Bears might struggle with the decision to move on from their first-round quarterback picked in the 2021 draft, the Patriots shouldn't agonize much. Mac Jones has regressed enough to make that an easy call this offseason. Quarterback is by far New England's biggest need.


4. Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

OK, finally, I can discuss a position other than quarterback. Kyler Murray played well enough after returning from his knee injury to keep the job in Arizona. The plucky Cardinals won four games and showed some improvement throughout the season, but they still finished 32nd in rushing yards allowed per game (143.2), 31st in points allowed per game (26.8) on defense and 29th in pass yards per attempt (6.2) on offense. In short, they have big needs on both sides of the ball.

Harrison is one of the best receiver prospects of the past decade, a 6-foot-4 speedster who can run every route and break tackles after the catch. In Arizona, where Marquise Brown is a free agent, he could step into the No. 1 role as a rookie. He has all the tools to win Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2024. The Cardinals also own the Texans' first-rounder in this draft, thanks to last year's trade during Round 1, and they could look to the defense or offensive line there.


5. Los Angeles Chargers
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Edge rusher? Cornerback? Offensive line? Wide receiver (again)? The Chargers have big questions and still haven't hired a new general manager or coach. This prediction is a shot in the dark until they figure out who's making the decisions. While I could see any of those positions being addressed here, I'm going with a fit I really like based on a different potential need.

Gerald Everett caught 51 passes in 2023, but he averaged just 8.1 yards per reception. L.A. really has to add a playmaker at the tight end position. With Everett hitting free agency, there's a hole for Bowers, who is spectacular after the catch, to fill. He had 26 touchdown catches over three college seasons, showing a stellar ability to stretch the seams. Justin Herbert hasn't had a pass-catcher like Bowers since he entered the league in 2020.


6. New York Giants
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

The Giants got just six games out of quarterback Daniel Jones on the way to a lost season that showed some cracks in the foundation. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale resigned after the season, and the offense under coordinator Mike Kafka struggled with Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito under center. New York's quarterbacks were sacked a whopping 85 times, the most in the league, and the offense ranked 30th in yards per play (4.5). The Giants used top-10 picks on offensive linemen in 2020 (Andrew Thomas) and 2022 (Evan Neal), but I absolutely could see them doing it again, as tackles Joe Alt (Notre Dame) and Olu Fashanu (Penn State) are still available in this scenario.

Still, I keep coming back to getting Jones more help, as he has never played with a true No. 1 wide receiver. Nabers could be that. He's coming off an 89-catch, 1,569-yard season catching passes from Jayden Daniels, and he has a rare combination of speed and route-running ability. He led the FBS with 17 catches of 30-plus yards. The Giants had just 15 total 30-plus yard receptions last season, five of which were from rookie third-rounder Jalin Hyatt.


7. Tennessee Titans
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

The Titans are another team coming off a lost season, and they moved on from Mike Vrabel in the aftermath. They hired former Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan as his replacement. Rookie second-round pick Will Levis showed enough promise to get a chance to start at quarterback in 2024, but there are big holes all along the roster, including on a defense that ranked last in the league in interceptions (6).

I keep staring at the Titans' depth chart and wondering whether they should go back to the O-line, though. They took Peter Skoronski at No. 11 a year ago and played him mostly at guard, where he was just OK. Why not solidify the left tackle spot with the top two tackles in this class on the board? Alt was the definition of a stalwart on the left side of Notre Dame's line, where he started 33 games. He gave up just two sacks over the past two seasons. Tennessee ranked 31st in the rate of sacks per dropback (11.1%) in 2023, so putting Levis in a better position to succeed should be a priority.


8. Atlanta Falcons
Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama

Here we go, another team in the top 10 that hasn't yet hired its new coach. The good thing about this projection: I don't have another quarterback with a top-10 grade, so I'm not going to force one to Atlanta. I wonder if it might be a trade suitor for Justin Fields or instead look to the free agent market for Kirk Cousins or cut candidate Russell Wilson. (If the Falcons hire Jim Harbaugh, I reserve my right to predict Michigan signal-caller J.J. McCarthy to join his former coach.)

Let's move to the other side of the ball, where the Falcons ranked 32nd in pass rush win rate (30.9%) and 29th in takeaways (16). Veterans Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree led the team with 6.5 sacks apiece. This is a front seven that needs an injection of youth. With Turner, they'd get the best edge defender in this class, a 242-pound outside linebacker who had 22.5 sacks over three college seasons. He ranked eighth in the FBS with a 16.7% pressure rate in 2023.


9. Chicago Bears
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

Chicago likely will take a hard look at the edge rushers in this class to try to find a starter to play on the other side of Montez Sweat, who finished the season with 12.5 total sacks (six for Chicago) after being acquired from Washington. Turner could have been a fit, and I also thought about Laiatu Latu (UCLA), who is the best pure pass-rusher in this class. But with the Bears' second top-10 pick, I want to slot in a playmaker for the new quarterback I gave them at No. 1.

Odunze had 92 catches for 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns for the Huskies in 2023. He played out wide and inside -- 30 of his catches came from lining up in the slot -- and ran every route in the receiving tree. This would be tremendous value for Odunze, who is No. 5 overall on my board. He could be the 1B to DJ Moore, who had a great first season in Chicago. And with Williams throwing them the ball, the Bears' offense would be extremely dynamic.


10. New York Jets
Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

One year after the Jets got jumped by the Steelers in Round 1 and lost out on Broderick Jones, here's a chance for New York to get its left tackle of the present and future. It's the biggest void on the offense, especially with Mekhi Becton hitting free agency. As quarterback Aaron Rodgers makes his return to the lineup, he'd be thrilled to have Fashanu protecting his blind side.

At 6-foot-6, 319 pounds, Fashanu has the physical traits and footwork of an elite lineman. He could have been a first-rounder in last year's draft if he had entered. He allowed one sack in 21 career starts for the Nittany Lions. He still hasn't come close to reaching his ceiling.


11. Minnesota Vikings
Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

In my final mock ahead of the 2023 draft, I projected the Vikings taking a cornerback. Instead, they went with wide receiver Jordan Addison, who had a fantastic rookie season, catching 10 touchdown passes. That need in the secondary still exists. Minnesota ranked 28th in passing yards allowed to receivers last season (3,019), and 2022 second-rounder Andrew Booth Jr. hasn't quite figured things out. Let's go back to Clemson -- Booth's former school -- with the selection of Wiggins here. Wiggins was a lockdown defender in 2023, allowing just 4.2 yards per attempt as the nearest defender in coverage.

Could the Vikings take a quarterback? For sure. Kirk Cousins is a free agent, and I don't think rookie fifth-rounder Jaren Hall will be the guy long-term. At this point, though, the most likely option might be running it back with Cousins, so adding a starter on defense makes more sense. This obviously could change as we learn more about general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's plans.


12. Denver Broncos
Laiatu Latu, OLB, UCLA

I love Latu's ability to bend the edge and get after quarterbacks. He's a toolsy pass-rusher who has a variety of moves and always has a plan of attack. He ranked second in the FBS in total pressures (57) and pressure rate (20.4%) this past season, and he ranked first in the same categories in 2022 (55 pressures, 19.1% pressure rate). And did I mention he had 23.5 sacks in that time frame? Those are two seasons of phenomenal production. The questions with Latu will come at the NFL combine in a few weeks, as he medically retired from football because of a neck injury when he was at Washington in 2021. He was cleared to play for the Bruins, but what will his medical checkups show?

For Denver, adding Latu would be a boost to a pass rush that was just OK last season. The Broncos tied for 21st with 42 sacks, but overall they ranked 30th in yards per play allowed (5.8) and 32nd in yards per carry allowed (5.0). Latu has the potential to become a 10-sacks-per-season defender.


13. Las Vegas Raiders
Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

This was another spot in which I thought about slotting in the fourth quarterback in this class, as the Raiders are likely to move on from Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason and rookie fourth-round pick Aidan O'Connell struggled after some early flashes. Ultimately, this might be Las Vegas' best chance to get a true No. 1 cover corner, though, as Arnold took his game to another level in 2023.

He picked off five passes and had 12 total breakups as quarterbacks completed just 37.9% of their passes when he was the nearest defender in coverage. He can shut down one side of the field for a defense that improved down the stretch but still has a ways to go to compete in a tough AFC West.


14. New Orleans Saints
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

Derek Carr had an up-and-down debut season in New Orleans, and his sizable contract almost certainly means he'll be back as the starter in 2024. But what do we know about the playmakers around him? Chris Olave is a star who has put up back-to-back seasons with 1,000 receiving yards. After that? There are big questions. Michael Thomas likely will move on this offseason, while Alvin Kamara has regressed in recent years. And while Rashid Shaheed showed he can be a useful complementary receiver, Carr could use another asset in the receiving game to try to boost this offense.

Thomas, the third of the LSU offensive players off the board in this projection, led the FBS with 17 touchdown catches last season while averaging 17.3 yards per reception. He had just three drops on 93 targets. He can take the top off defenses and be a stellar No. 2 option as a rookie. Plus, the born-and-raised Louisiana kid wouldn't have to leave the state.


15. Indianapolis Colts
Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

One of the top edge rushers could be in play here for the Colts, but I'm leaning toward a like-for-like replacement, as Michael Pittman Jr. could get a megadeal in free agency and leave the team. If that happens, there will be a massive need for a big, physical pass-catcher, which describes Coleman's game.

At 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, Coleman can box out cornerbacks and go up and get deep balls. He has fantastic body control when the ball is in the air. He had 11 touchdowns after transferring to Florida State from Michigan State. Coleman, Josh Downs and Alec Pierce would form an excellent receiving corps for young quarterback Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis.


16. Seattle Seahawks
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

OK, here's a spot for the next quarterback. While I don't have a first-round grade on McCarthy right now -- a lot can change before Round 1 on April 25 -- he does have first-round arm talent, along with the ability to beat defenses with his legs. He's the type of quarterback teams will take a shot at in the middle of the first round, especially when you consider he just turned 21 a few days ago. He rarely turns the ball over -- he threw 44 touchdown passes and had nine picks over the past two seasons -- and can make every throw. McCarthy just wasn't asked to beat teams with his arm for the Wolverines, because they so often dominated at the line of scrimmage. As of now, I'm betting on a team seeing his upside and trying to take him somewhere in the teens.

For Seattle, the contract Geno Smith signed last March made it clear the team could get out after one season. Smith had a decent season (20 TD passes, 9 INTs), but will he really be here long term? I could see the Seahawks severing ties and starting fresh for whomever the new coach ends up being.


17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

The Jaguars' collapse to end the season -- they lost five of their final six games and missed the playoffs -- exposed some serious roster issues, and they could have more holes to plug this offseason. That's because top edge rusher Josh Allen and No. 2 wideout Calvin Ridley are free agents, and both could get enticing offers if they hit the open market in March. Ridley is probably more likely to leave, but I just projected five receivers in the top 15 picks, which means Jacksonville might not like the pass-catchers left on the board. That's why I'm pivoting to a defense that struggled down the stretch.

DeJean, who was having an All-America season before he broke his leg in November, allowed just 3.5 yards per attempt as the nearest defender in coverage this past season. He had seven interceptions from 2022-23, including three pick-sixes. He could play in the slot or outside, making him a nice complementary corner with Darious Williams and Tyson Campbell.


18. Cincinnati Bengals
JC Latham, OT, Alabama

We could see a run on offensive linemen starting around here -- this is a really talented tackle class. I have seven tackles ranked among my top 25 overall prospects. Latham started 27 games at right tackle for the Crimson Tide over the past two seasons. He can maul defenders in the run game, but he's also light on his feet as a pass protector. With Jonah Williams headed to free agency, Latham could slot in on the right side and be an instant starter. I could also see the Bengals look toward the defensive tackle class, with Jer'Zhan Newton (Illinois) and T'Vondre Sweat (Texas) still available.


19. Los Angeles Rams
Jared Verse, DE, Florida State

The Rams got outstanding play from two rookie defensive linemen in edge rusher Byron Young (8 sacks) and tackle Kobie Turner (9 sacks), but they're relatively thin along the defensive line. Can they find another impact edge rusher, this time in Round 1, to help a defense that finished 30th in takeaways (15)?

Verse was inconsistent in his two seasons at Florida State, but there's no doubting his talent and 6-foot-4, 253-pound frame. He put up 18 sacks and 81 pressures from 2022-23, with 50 of those pressures coming last season. That's the pass-rush improvement I hoped to see before the season. His next step is creating more turnovers, as he had just one forced fumble for the Seminoles.


20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia

Sure, the Steelers hit on cornerback Joey Porter Jr. with the top pick of Round 2 a year ago, but this is a defense that saw 33-year-old corner Patrick Peterson play more than 1,000 snaps, so there's room for an injection of youth at the position. Lassiter emerged as a lockdown corner for the Bulldogs in 2023, though he had just one career interception, which came all the way back in 2021. Still, he allowed a total of nine receptions for 91 yards as the nearest defender in coverage, and none of those passes went for scores. He could form an elite duo with Porter.


21. Miami Dolphins
Troy Fautanu, G, Washington

The Dolphins could lose two starting offensive linemen in free agency, as center Connor Williams and right guard Robert Hunt are scheduled to hit the market in March. They also likely will have limited cap space, particularly with the potential of Tua Tagovailoa getting a big extension. Why not add an O-line replacement here? There's room to improve, as Miami ranked 31st in pass block win rate (49.2%).

Fautanu started 31 career games for the Huskies, spending most of his time at left tackle. I see his future at guard, however, as his 6-foot-4, 317-pound frame and playing style fit on the interior. He allowed two career sacks on nearly 1,250 pass-blocking snaps. It wouldn't shock me if a team drafted Fautanu to play tackle, but I see All-Pro upside for him at guard.


22. Philadelphia Eagles
Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

The Eagles were a disaster at the end of the season, and they have several roster questions to answer this offseason (with a long list of pending free agents). On defense, they have needs at cornerback and safety, and their pass rush was putrid down the stretch. On offense, their line is getting older -- right tackle Lane Johnson turns 34 in May -- and they'll have to replace star center Jason Kelce. Taking Fuaga is a way to add a top-tier talent and figure out the rest later.

Cam Jurgens, a second-rounder in 2022, probably would replace Kelce, which means the right guard spot would open up. Fuaga started 25 games at right tackle for the Beavers, but he could play inside as a rookie before ultimately replacing Johnson. He is a dominant run-blocker with powerful hands and strong lower body.


23. Houston Texans (via CLE)
Jer'Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

The Texans overachieved and won a playoff game on the back of a stellar rookie class, but they have work to do this offseason. They have cap space to make moves but also have several free agents, including top edge rusher Jonathan Greenard (12.5), tight end Dalton Schultz (59 catches) and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (6 sacks). While I can see Houston pursuing multiple positions with this pick, Newton would both fill a void and be a high-upside selection.

Newton is the best interior pass-rusher in this class; he had 16.5 sacks in three seasons for the Fighting Illini. He improved his pressure rate in every season, showing off an impressive combination of strength and natural talent. He also has versatility, as three of his sacks were from when he lined up as the nose tackle. He could slot into Rankins' spot in the lineup.


24. Dallas Cowboys
Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

The NFL's other franchise in Texas had the opposite rookie class as the Texans, as the Cowboys got very little from their first-year players (unless you include first-team All-Pro kicker Brandon Aubrey, who played in the USFL). And while they've been known for their tremendous offensive line play for years, both left tackle Tyron Smith and right guard Zack Martin are 33, with Smith now out of contract. Sure, they appear to have hit on 2022 first-rounder Tyler Smith, who has excelled at left guard, but they have to add more talent to their line.

Morgan is one of my favorite pass protectors in this class. I love the way he moves his feet and handles twists and stunts. He started 35 games at left tackle in college, which would make him a perfect fit to replace Tyron Smith.


25. Green Bay Packers
Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU

As I mentioned earlier, this is a talented tackle class, and so if Green Bay has a chance to get its blindside protector of the future, it should take it. David Bakhtiari has played just 25 games over the past four seasons because of knee issues, including one in 2023. The Packers can't rely on him coming back.

The 6-foot-6 Suamataia started 23 games for the Cougars over the past two seasons, 12 at right tackle and 11 at left tackle. I love the potential he showed this past season when he gave up three sacks and only eight total pressures. He is a mountain of a man who can move to the second level and take on linebackers in the run game.


26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State

Tampa Bay is another franchise with big looming decisions in free agency, as quarterback Baker Mayfield, wide receiver Mike Evans, linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. are among the key contributors on track to hit the market. That makes a projection this early really tough. I keep looking at the Bucs' pass rush, though, and wondering if they could try to upgrade, particularly since rookie Yaya Diaby led them in sacks (7.5).

I wrote before the season that Robinson had the potential to break out, but he never quite put it all together, following up a 5.5-sack season in 2022 with four in 2023. His 18% pressure rate was really solid, but it didn't translate into production. Still, I expect Robinson to test well at the combine, and we know NFL teams fall in love with edge rushers who have high-upside traits. Robinson is still a bit raw, but he has tools with which to work.


27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU)
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

We're finally back to Arizona, which almost certainly thought this pick would be much higher when it made the trade with Houston last April. I gave the Cardinals a WR1 at No. 4 overall, and this pick could be a way to solidify their bookends, as they drafted Paris Johnson Jr. at No. 6 a year ago. Johnson spent his rookie season on the right side, but he's suited to play left tackle, as that's where he played his final season at Ohio State. Guyton, however, spent almost all of his time at right tackle for the Sooners; he allowed zero sacks in 2023.

As I wrote in my scouting report on Guyton, NFL teams will covet his physical tools, even though he started just 15 games in college. I could also see the Cardinals take a cornerback here, with Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo) and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (Missouri) the best available in my rankings.


28. Buffalo Bills
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

I made a late change with this pick after I watched Josh Allen average 4.8 yards per attempt in the home loss to the Chiefs. His receivers struggled to get open and didn't make enough plays after the catch once they did. Stefon Diggs hasn't had a 100-yard game since mid-October, and Gabe Davis is now a free agent. General manager Brandon Beane can find a useful pass-catcher here.

The 6-foot-4 Mitchell broke out after transferring from Georgia, catching 55 passes for 845 yards and 11 scores for the Longhorns in 2023. He thrived on crossing routes, using his size and quickness to get separation from defenders. He has great hands. The position I almost went with? Nose tackle, because T'Vondre Sweat (Texas) could be a great fit in the middle of the Buffalo defense.

Just a reminder: The final four picks in Round 1 are based on projections from ESPN's Football Power Index.


29. Kansas City Chiefs
Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon

Did you expect me to go with another position? Kansas City's receivers really struggled this season, outside of rookie second-rounder Rashee Rice, who might already be their top wideout. Chiefs pass-catchers dropped 38 passes during the regular season, ranking last in the league. That's why I'm giving them a talented playmaker with this pick.

Franklin averaged 17.1 yards per catch in 2023 and had 23 receiving touchdowns over the past two seasons. He is a big, 6-foot-3 target with deceptive speed who can break tackles after the catch. This isn't the first time I've projected Kansas City to land a receiver in Round 1 -- I gave them Zay Flowers in my final 2023 mock -- but the hole is too large to not fill here. By the way, this makes seven wideouts in Round 1, which would tie the record for most in a single draft (2004).


30. Detroit Lions
Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

Detroit landed a second-round steal last year in safety/slot corner Brian Branch, who had three interceptions in an excellent rookie season. Unfortunately, that wasn't enough to solve this defense's issues defending the pass. The Lions ranked 31st in yards per pass attempt allowed (7.8) and 30th in passing yards allowed to receivers (3,081). Simply put, they have to get better at corner.

Mitchell leveled up this past season, not allowing a single touchdown pass as the nearest defender in coverage, despite being targeted 59 times. He picked off five passes in 2022, but he gave up four scores -- he was much more consistent in 2023, though he only had one interception. I'm excited to see how Mitchell performs at Senior Bowl practices next week.


31. Baltimore Ravens
Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri

The Ravens' defense has been spectacular this season, but defensive tackles Justin Madubuike and Michael Pierce, edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney, linebacker Patrick Queen and safety Geno Stone are all set to be free agents this offseason. While they're likely to bring back a couple of these players and might have young replacements on their roster for others, I see a banged-up cornerback group that could use more depth.

Rakestraw would make six cornerbacks off the board in Round 1, which would be the most since the 2020 draft. He has the versatility to play out wide or in the slot. He had just one interception in four college seasons, but he did have 24 career pass breakups, so he knows how to get his hands on throws. I like Rakestraw's fit in Baltimore.


32. San Francisco 49ers
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

This makes eight offensive tackles in my first mock for the 2024 class, 25% of the entire first round. That would be the most since the 2008 draft when there were also eight in the top 32 (including the No. 1 overall pick). The 49ers have an obvious need at right tackle, as starter Colton McKivitz allowed 11 sacks in the regular season. They need to upgrade in a deep and talented class.

There's some risk with taking Mims, as he started only eight games in college because of injuries and NFL picks in front of him on the Georgia depth chart. But his ceiling is incredibly high; at 6-foot-7, 340 pounds, he has the traits to be a future Pro Bowler if he can put it all together. Mims didn't allow a single sack in 372 career pass-blocking snaps.

Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:

I have a hard time believing anyone would give up a 1st for Fields.

Ornery and Hornery posted:

Man idk. QBs go for weird amounts. And it only takes one team to fall in love.

I could see fields going for a third and a second, easily.

Heck if my team did that I’d be excited!

Parallax posted:

Fatanu seems like a good fit for what the dolphins need

Kalli posted:

OTC is usually pretty close on this, their comp pick projections:

https://overthecap.com/projecting-the-2024-compensatory-picks

Jags / Eagles / 49ers / Bills get a 3rd, Ravens a 4th

Kalli posted:

OTC is usually pretty close on this, their comp pick projections:

https://overthecap.com/projecting-the-2024-compensatory-picks

Jags / Eagles / 49ers / Bills get a 3rd, Ravens a 4th

A Sneaker Broker posted:

I know this isn't the free agent thread, but what do we think Antoine Winfield Jr. will get in the free market? The Packers need a definitive answer at safety, and I would much rather have him than Micah Hyde or any other option.

wandler20 posted:

He's not leaving Tampa. They'll sign him or tag him. I've read he might get close to if not $20m per season.

A Sneaker Broker posted:

I know this isn't the free agent thread, but what do we think Antoine Winfield Jr. will get in the free market? The Packers need a definitive answer at safety, and I would much rather have him than Micah Hyde or any other option.

Raku posted:

Man Daniels is the only QB I would even consider using a first round pick on. Maybe Williams if he falls a humiliating amount so I can pretend he has a chip on his shoulder.

Lol at whoever drafts McCarthy. A poor man's Stetson Bennett.

Ornery and Hornery posted:

Quoting the hottest take we’ll have all thread. “Caleb Williams not worth a first round pick”

Preserving this post for future generations.

Ornery and Hornery posted:

Packers might be able to draft Kamren Kinchens with the second round pick they got from the jets.

Kamren is a good ball hawking safety. His main flaw is that he doesn’t seem to have the athleticism / measurables of an elite safety. But similar to Brian Branch last year, I guess measurables don’t matter as much if you can ball out.

Manoueverable posted:

I will be so frustrated if the Seahawks take McCarthy in the first, this is the second time I've seen him mocked to us and the thought process is just "well, Geno isn't the long term solution, so uh, just take a QB, yep"

wandler20 posted:

He's not leaving Tampa. They'll sign him or tag him. I've read he might get close to if not $20m per season.