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I think you were the one making it moralistic and melodramatic? The story of the poor coal miners who simply want their jobs back has been debunked again and again, and only exists to be a moralistic and melodramatic explanation for Trumpism.
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Jan 23, 2024 10:00
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I don't see how that possibly could have been debunked, given the characteristics of the areas that went from being Democratic or purple to being blood-red. But if there are studies that contradict it, I would love to see them, which I mean sincerely. The melodramatic charge I will take in stride, I know I have a tendendy to get carried away in my prose. Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 10:57 on Jan 23, 2024 |
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Jan 23, 2024 10:54
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In other news, Haley has received 100% of the Republican primary vote in New Hampshire so far. That is to say, everyone in Dixville Notch voted for her. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68064703 quote:Most voters in New Hampshire will cast their ballots during the day on Tuesday but in tiny Dixville Notch, a handful of people voted at midnight in a decades-old tradition. All six registered voters in the resort town chose Nikki Haley over Donald Trump.
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Jan 23, 2024 11:43
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Phlegmish posted:In other news, Haley has received 100% of the Republican primary vote in New Hampshire so far. That is to say, everyone in Dixville Notch voted for her. to steal a joke from Reddit, "Stop the Count!"
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Jan 23, 2024 13:36
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Phlegmish posted:I've seen statistics on this in the past, but I don't remember them by heart. If I had to guess, I would say that (white) Trump voters are slightly better off compared to the general electorate, but that they are worse off than the average white voter, which is possible due to race and income being correlated in the United States. As for education, I am almost certain that they are less educated on average, if not generally, then at least (again) compared to the white electorate. With level of education (negatively correlated) being a more reliable indicator than income when it comes to voting for Trump. Could be wrong, but that's what would make the most sense given existing voting patterns. Let's not guess. In 2016: quote:s compared with most Americans, Trump’s voters are better off. The median household income of a Trump voter so far in the primaries is about $72,000, based on estimates derived from exit polls and Census Bureau data. That’s lower than the $91,000 median for Kasich voters. But it’s well above the national median household income of about $56,000. It’s also higher than the median income for Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders supporters, which is around $61,000 for both. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ quote:Moreover, according to what is arguably the next-best measure of class, household income, Trump supporters didn’t look overwhelmingly “working class” during the primaries. To the contrary, many polls showed that Trump supporters were mostly affluent Republicans. For example, a March 2016 NBC survey that we analyzed showed that only a third of Trump supporters had household incomes at or below the national median of about $50,000. Another third made $50,000 to $100,000, and another third made $100,000 or more and that was true even when we limited the analysis to only non-Hispanic whites. If being working class means being in the bottom half of the income distribution, the vast majority of Trump supporters during the primaries were not working class. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/05/its-time-to-bust-the-myth-most-trump-voters-were-not-working-class/ Trump's base of support is not the "working class." His base of support is affluent, elderly white people. Boomers. When a Trump voter is "uneducated" they're "uneducated" because they're a boomer who had a whole career off of a high-school diploma. Hieronymous Alloy fucked around with this message at 13:44 on Jan 23, 2024 |
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Jan 23, 2024 13:42
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If I'm summarizing correctly, reasonably wealthy in economic terms (although not as wealthy as supporters of other Republican candidates), not so much when it comes to cultural capital, much like Trump himself. That's about what I expected, them displaying a 'working class' sense of aesthetics and values, while not necessarily struggling financially, in fact even less than I thought. I'm often reminded of that image of Trump proudly hosting a White House dinner consisting mostly of McDonald's.
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Jan 23, 2024 14:06
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Phlegmish posted:If I'm summarizing correctly, reasonably wealthy in economic terms (although not as wealthy as supporters of other Republican candidates), not so much when it comes to cultural capital, much like Trump himself. That's about what I expected, them displaying a 'working class' sense of aesthetics and values, while not necessarily struggling financially, in fact even less than I thought. I only have anecdotes not statistics- but my experience is that the put-upon blue collar Trump supporter exists. I have worked and lived with them. It's been more night stocking at the local grocery store than cool jobs like hard-bitten coal miner, but still. The majority though, that's people living off retirement pensions in like Jersey or Harahan if they're pro-suburb, more like Hudson Yards if they prefer Trump-style rich, driving (MAGA-bumper-sticker-laden) trucks that cost more than most americans make in a year and blitzing past children who have to dodge out of the way. That's the real Trump base. The gently caress-you-got-mines not the coal mines.
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Jan 23, 2024 15:00
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:Personally I think it's dangerous to assume any fascist chooses fascism because they are stupid. They know what they are doing. They might also be ignorant / stupid, but there isn't anyone out there who doesn't realize Trump is a huge racist. Anyone who says otherwise is lying. He's been open about it for decades now. Yeah. I think a lot of them just retroactively justify what they really wanted. There are definitely a lot of dumb people who think "Rich person = good at economy" or "I like Democrats/Republicans, but since there is a Democratic/Republican President or Congress, then I have to vote for the other party to balance it out." But, one of the people they interview in the Politico piece said he voted for Trump in 2016 because both of the party establishments hated him. Then, he said he voted for Trump in 2020 for the same reason. Now, he says that he doesn't care that the Republican establishment is all in on Trump now because they learned he was "good at the economy", so he can vote for Trump even though he isn't opposed by both parties anymore.
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Jan 23, 2024 15:04
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Anecdotal as well but I live in NYC, and by far the majority of the Trump supporters I run into are young Latino and African-American men. I have no doubts that the polling showing Biden weakening among younger folks and minority groups (especially men) is 100% real and going to hurt him a bit in November. Most of these guys probably won't vote though.
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Jan 23, 2024 15:10
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This is the great thing about statistics and big numbers as it can seem confusing. Trump got 12% of African-American voters in 2020, which sounds tiny, but also means he has over a million black people voting for him. Same thing with blue-collar workers, more supported Biden, but it wasn't a humongous difference among all income levels, so you're still talking tens of millions of people. They aren't going to be that hard to find.
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Jan 23, 2024 15:30
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Haley currently has an unprecedented 100-point margin over Trump in the early NH primary results. https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1749660885985976421
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Jan 23, 2024 15:33
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*Dave Wasserman voice* I've seen enough
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Jan 23, 2024 15:42
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Phlegmish posted:This is surface-level analysis. The entire state of West Virginia did not wake up one day and decide to be horrible bigots just because. Lee Atwater admitted that every "issue" the GOP campaigns on is thinly veiled racist code. That was in the early 80s. Do you think the GOP has become more or less fascist since then? And yeah you're right, they didn't wake up "one day" and become racist. WV is a culmination of hundreds of years of absolutely dire racial hatred.
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Jan 23, 2024 16:06
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Dixville Notch gave Haley a 100-point lead, but it is much closer on the Democratic side. A three-way tie for 0. All 6 of the town's eligible voters decided to vote in the Republican primary and none in the Democratic primary.
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Jan 23, 2024 16:32
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Dixville Notch gave Haley a 100-point lead, but it is much closer on the Democratic side. Shameful Joe Biden is losing the Democratic Primary.
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Jan 23, 2024 16:38
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Phlegmish posted:Fair point. I should have said 'worked well enough' in the sense that DeSantis wasn't immediately disavowed by his own party, which is what almost certainly would have happened in some other states. I think it also kinda depends on what kind of cultural progressivism you have encountered. If all you encounter of progressives is terminally online kids or people who get paid to come to your work and badly explain how privilege works while your not getting paid to listen or some out of context fox rant about some weird term paper or class some college did, then yeah I can see why it works. Anti social progressives stuff works best when vague Or using the most dumb weirdos as examples. The problem with the right is they have declared basic societal poo poo woke now because reality goes against their bullshit. The book bans and targeting kids hurts them because it’s too blatantly insane. It’s one thing to want to get mad at poorly taught progressive ideals and history. The chuds hosed up by going full mask off.
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Jan 23, 2024 17:55
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Let's not guess. Trump is Boomer Dominated Culture's last gasp before they shed their mortal coil.
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Jan 23, 2024 18:12
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Just for clarification: Trump's base is pretty much the same as the generic Republican base. He does have a slightly different coalition, though. He does disproportionately well with white voters without degrees and disproportionately worse with white voters with degrees than a generic Republican. Sometimes, people talking about his "base" mean the groups that he does disproportionately well with and not the group that supplies the majority of the votes.
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Jan 23, 2024 18:23
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Phlegmish posted:I've seen people in this thread conclude from this that it is not a good electoral strategy to double down on the culture war, but I don't necessarily agree. This sudden focus on things like critical race theory in high schools might seem random, but is actually quite clever. It plays on the long-standing and not entirely unwarranted right-wing fear of leftist institutional domination, as well as white fears of displacement and the loss of ascendancy. There is also a legitimate discussion to be had about whether or not it is appropriate to teach this subject in high schools, even if the arguments are often made in bad faith. It's often pointed out with glee that many of the people who adamantly oppose CRT don't understand what it is, that they lack the educational background or even cognitive capacities to understand it, and this is true, but the same obviously also holds true for the average high school student. In the past decade and a half, we've seen an endless stream of people on places like tumblr, X, YouTube, and TikTok using and abusing popularized academic concepts that they barely grasp even on a surface level, let alone the complexities and nuances involved in their original formulation. In a way that's indicative of the way popular culture has shifted in a certain direction, but it also has a tendency to backfire spectacularly.
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Jan 23, 2024 18:29
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kissekatt posted:I'm not American, but my understanding is that critical race theory is literally not taught in high schools, it's an academic framework of analysis used academically in law and sociology. In the context of conservative criticism the name is basically just used as a scarier substitute for "woke" and is about as well defined. Basically, don't mention slavery or racism. This is correct
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Jan 23, 2024 18:31
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Yeah I mean the guy who brought CRT into the larger public "discourse" did so by going on Fox News and whining about it being the cause of all our ills. He then immediately went to Twitter and openly admitted that CRT is a meaningless cipher that conservatives (fascists) can use to stand for whatever boogeyman they want.
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Jan 23, 2024 19:37
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Eason the Fifth posted:*Dave Wasserman voice* I've seen enough nowhere else do i get to laugh about politics
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Jan 23, 2024 20:18
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yeah. the primary is over, its just the question of "does haley do well enough to keep up the charade/horse race/excuse to keep running" Or "does she get crushed by king dumbass and bend the knee by the 31st". I am weirdly still surprised desantis didnt keep loving that chicken and stay in until florida.
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Jan 23, 2024 21:01
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ron did that thing where you go out trying to ignite fervor for your brand but instead it turns out that 90% of your brand is it not being widely enough known what you're actually like and once you get your brand out there everyone's like "oh, well, definitely not THIS guy" it was a terrible showing even by the standards set by perennial candidates
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Jan 23, 2024 21:42
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Staluigi posted:ron did that thing where you go out trying to ignite fervor for your brand but instead it turns out that 90% of your brand is it not being widely enough known what you're actually like and once you get your brand out there everyone's like "oh, well, definitely not THIS guy" As an european i am shocked how artificial a politician can be (from few video clips i saw). It really borders on satire. He got that HELLO FELLOW HUMANS, I AM ALSO HUMAN - vibe AutismVaccine fucked around with this message at 22:23 on Jan 23, 2024 |
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Jan 23, 2024 22:21
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah. the primary is over, its just the question of "does haley do well enough to keep up the charade/horse race/excuse to keep running" Or "does she get crushed by king dumbass and bend the knee by the 31st". I am weirdly still surprised desantis didnt keep loving that chicken and stay in until florida. If she gets 40% or over she is going to keep running. She'll get some money behind her and set herself up for 2028.
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Jan 23, 2024 22:23
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Mooseontheloose posted:If she gets 40% or over she is going to keep running. She'll get some money behind her and set herself up for 2028. yeah. I actually think she does pretty well tonight, maybe pulls a win. NH is kinda the "moderate" GOP state and i think alot of them loving hate trump and even if some bend the knee after, want to blacken an eye before hand.
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Jan 23, 2024 22:28
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I think the threshold for Haley staying in the race will be whether or not the networks immediately call NH for Trump the moment the polls close. (I think they will.)
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Jan 23, 2024 22:36
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah. the primary is over, its just the question of "does haley do well enough to keep up the charade/horse race/excuse to keep running" Or "does she get crushed by king dumbass and bend the knee by the 31st". I am weirdly still surprised desantis didnt keep loving that chicken and stay in until florida. Whether she stays in or not is almost completely up to whether her billionaire(I think she's a Koch project) wants her to keep going, polling and placement be damned. Ron is out because his puppeteers are all of the "Sure would like a competent Trump" variety, and they don't think it's worth it to keep trying to get their Big Mick to take off when they've already got a Big Mac on their plate. Since Haley is the Renfield of the "Never" Trump billionaires, she's free to keep going as long as they want to make a point. Or, like a baby eating a lemon for the first time, she discovers shame. Citizens United has all but killed the idea of a large base of donors determining whether or not to support the candidate based on their performance. At least on the Republican side. Kind of ironic that Trump is basically the last gasp of the old way. Gyges fucked around with this message at 22:45 on Jan 23, 2024 |
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Jan 23, 2024 22:43
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Gyges posted:Whether she stays in or not is almost completely up to whether her billionaire(I think she's a Koch project) wants her to keep going, polling and placement be damned. Ron is out because his puppeteers are all of the "Sure would like a competent Trump" variety, and they don't think it's worth it to keep trying to get their Big Mick to take off when they've already got a Big Mac on their plate. Since Haley is the Renfield of the "Never" Trump billionaires, she's free to keep going as long as they want to make a point. Or, like a baby eating a lemon for the first time, she discovers shame. I think the issue is SC is next up and her home state. she will get blown out in it. staying into or past getting blown out in your home state, doesnt help you. like obviously she is just a money sink of a wing and prayer for the non trump types but yeah.
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Jan 23, 2024 22:45
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“wapo” posted:MANCHESTER, N.H. — Mark Harris, the lead strategist for the pro-Haley super PAC SFA Fund Inc., emphasized on Tuesday afternoon that Nikki Haley will not be dropping out after New Hampshire — even if she loses to Donald Trump here by double digits. Especially now that Desantis is out she holds on as long as someone funds because she is now the “what if Trump had a stroke much like an old person that eats mostly fast food and burnt steak might” candidate. I’m increasingly dim that courts will hold Trump accountable so that is pretty much her only play. Yiggy fucked around with this message at 22:52 on Jan 23, 2024 |
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Jan 23, 2024 22:46
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According to the exit polls NBCnews is using, ~45% of the people who have voted today are independents, vs. 47% R, vs. 8% R. New Hampshire allows you to be unenrolled and just say "I'm voting in the Republican Primary" to get a ballot, so this is by party registration.
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Jan 23, 2024 23:06
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah. I actually think she does pretty well tonight, maybe pulls a win. NH is kinda the "moderate" GOP state and i think alot of them loving hate trump and even if some bend the knee after, want to blacken an eye before hand. If she gets within 5 of Trump the media is going to give some fawning praise about her and create some real momentum.
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Jan 23, 2024 23:19
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So some polls close at 7 PM and some at 8 PM so they probably won’t make an actual call until 8.
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Jan 24, 2024 01:10
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Dave ain't scared https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749950152381493252?s=20
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Jan 24, 2024 01:27
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Not all of Trump's supporters are motivated by racism. Lots of them support him because of his and their sexism.
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Jan 24, 2024 01:32
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whydirt posted:Not all of Trump's supporters are motivated by racism. Anecdotally I have found he also dominates among flat earthers. Is it because of their radical skepticism? Their willingness to pore over endlessly detailed evidence? Or some other personal characteristic they all have in common? Who can say. Edit - (I actually think it’s two common characteristics: some of them are aggressively stupid and some of them are wannabe grifters) The Artificial Kid fucked around with this message at 01:57 on Jan 24, 2024 |
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Jan 24, 2024 01:53
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The Artificial Kid posted:Anecdotally I have found he also dominates among flat earthers. Is it because of their radical skepticism? Their willingness to pore over endlessly detailed evidence? Or some other personal characteristic they all have in common? Who can say. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTfhYyTuT44&t dan olsen did a video on it.
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Jan 24, 2024 02:05
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It’s a great video and you should watch it. If you want the twist and why it’s relevant: it turns out that there’s a huge overlap between Flat Earthers and Evangelical Christians, because at heart it’s all about having absolute faith in a premise no one else believes; and having a Secret Truth you share with a community of believers. And Evangelicals are of course Trump’s most fervent voting group.
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Jan 24, 2024 02:13
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Haley needs to stop mentioning Kamla Harris, no one cares.
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Jan 24, 2024 02:27
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