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The Oldest Man posted:There are even some pretty funny (retrospectively) quotes in some of these articles where people came up with all kinds of justifications for putting a finger on the scale. I am almost 100% sure that the unabridged version of that quote about moving away from model democracy to model meritocracy is very specifically about using a model's ability to match past historical data to weight the models in the averaging process. If a hot model says that there was a -5C difference between the years 2000 and 1800 then that is a good reason to suspect that its not totally accurate about the difference between 2000 and 2200. But also like I said, if you put a snowball in an oven set to 300 degrees compared to 350 degrees it doesn't really matter.
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Jan 30, 2024 21:02
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Salt Fish posted:I am almost 100% sure that the unabridged version of that quote about moving away from model democracy to model meritocracy is very specifically about using a model's ability to match past historical data to weight the models in the averaging process. If a hot model says that there was a -5C difference between the years 2000 and 1800 then that is a good reason to suspect that its not totally accurate about the difference between 2000 and 2200. its also not very accurate when different feedback loops are kicking in one by one there's physically different processes going on now vs 1800. at best we can find a model that matches the current heating regime we find ourselves in. melting and exploding permafrost isn't something you can account for by trying to find an accurate curve for a 1800-2000 model
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Jan 30, 2024 21:12
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I remember the final season of Walking Dead and there was this walled community that seemed untouched by the zombie plague and subsequent material collapse. Despite all the surrounding communities living in various primitive and depraved states this one community still had functioning trains, stores, radio, hospitals...an actual still functional technological micro civilization with a civil bureaucracy to boot. I think people like that physics lady who are starting to realize poo poo is about to hit the fan think they'll make it out like that Walking Dead outpost that unbelievably retained modernity.
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Jan 30, 2024 21:13
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Salt Fish posted:I am almost 100% sure that the unabridged version of that quote about moving away from model democracy to model meritocracy is very specifically about using a model's ability to match past historical data to weight the models in the averaging process. If a hot model says that there was a -5C difference between the years 2000 and 1800 then that is a good reason to suspect that its not totally accurate about the difference between 2000 and 2200. the full article is here and covers a couple different approaches to not using or minimizing the influence of the hot models on the aggregate predictions https://www.science.org/content/article/use-too-hot-climate-models-exaggerates-impacts-global-warming quote:But also like I said, if you put a snowball in an oven set to 300 degrees compared to 350 degrees it doesn't really matter. actually what im saying is that the last round of ipcc predictions looked at the problem and said "Well 350 degrees cant be right, we'll do x and y and z things to make these predictions better" and got a result of like 310. then more recently research has come out indicating its more like 340.
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Jan 30, 2024 21:14
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rich people looking at the data, saying "this says were hosed it cant be right" and throwing out the data
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Jan 30, 2024 21:20
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when the ocean comes inside I will simply close the door
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Jan 30, 2024 21:35
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Just realized how to make the rich care about climate change: show how it will impact some of their most cherished vacation spots 0 feet of sea level rise  10 feet 
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Jan 30, 2024 22:18
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Scarabrae posted:when the ocean comes inside I will simply close the door
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Jan 30, 2024 22:24
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i’ve started running in the hottest part of the day now. yesterday was 32c with 80% humidity and it owned
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Jan 30, 2024 22:25
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It always amuses me that discussion of different RCPs and SSPs or whatever never tends toward discussing the background extinction rate flying off the charts across basically every segment of the animal kingdom. Ecological services are the IPBES's problem, not the ICC's. Totally different issue which I'm sure will be fine.
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Jan 30, 2024 22:26
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TeenageArchipelago posted:Just realized how to make the rich care about climate change: show how it will impact some of their most cherished vacation spots they can just buy a different "vacation" spot, op
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Jan 30, 2024 22:31
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:It always amuses me that discussion of different RCPs and SSPs or whatever never tends toward discussing the background extinction rate flying off the charts across basically every segment of the animal kingdom. Unfair. It also happened for the plant kingdom
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Jan 30, 2024 22:32
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Car Hater posted:When they ask for actionable suggestions you shrug and say
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Jan 30, 2024 22:35
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lmao "get the door closed!" ~door and bystanders get immediately obliterated~
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Jan 30, 2024 22:38
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:a conversation i had recently is it not possible that there is no solution that is both politically viable and also limits warming to, oh, let’s be super generous here and say 3 degrees C? what would they do then? (the answer is they wouldn’t do anything and you’re evil for forcing them to think about it)
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Jan 30, 2024 22:44
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they will do anything except stop consuming
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Jan 30, 2024 22:54
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the mechanisms by which we could restrict emissions to stay at 3C are the same mechanisms we would use to keep it at 2.5/2/1.5, or even make it go down in the long run. Thus, they will never implement them.
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Jan 30, 2024 22:58
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SixteenShells posted:the mechanisms by which we could restrict emissions to stay at 3C are the same mechanisms we would use to keep it at 2.5/2/1.5, or even make it go down in the long run. Thus, they will never implement them. well, they'll never willingly implement them
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Jan 30, 2024 22:58
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SixteenShells posted:the mechanisms by which we could restrict emissions to stay at 3C are the same mechanisms we would use to keep it at 2.5/2/1.5, or even make it go down in the long run. Thus, they will never implement them. you know that, and I know that, but does thorn’s friend???
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Jan 30, 2024 23:05
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Climate change
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Jan 30, 2024 23:21
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Communist Cop posted:Azolla Event the true tragedy 
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Jan 30, 2024 23:28
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Dokapon Findom posted:What is the range of sea level rise we can expect to see before 2050 (arbitrary date)? I guess 2030 is a more relevant timeframe considering how fast everything is moving If there's anything I've learned from the last few years it's that sea level rise - long considered the main problem of climate change - is the least of our worries lol loving lmao There's enough lag in the system that sea level rise will only come for us after climate volatility has finished off our agriculture. haha. hahahhahahahahahahAHAHAH
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Jan 30, 2024 23:35
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found a new horrifying wikipedia to read if you're a doomer slut like me https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Thermal_Maximum
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Jan 30, 2024 23:43
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everyone in this thread is a doomer slut and i ache to be hosed by multiple horrifying wikipedia articles. thanks for posting
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Jan 30, 2024 23:45
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In some ways Israel is a climate war. The message being sent by the Euro-American Axis is that we will kill everyone. This is non-negotiable.
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Jan 30, 2024 23:57
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Microplastics posted:everyone in this thread is a doomer slut
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Jan 31, 2024 00:05
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my copy of The Ends Of The World arrived in the post today and I am  for MF DOOM
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Jan 31, 2024 00:06
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Seeing as this thread has now been taken over by doomer wreckers and malthusian ecofascists, I'll start putting together the QCS complaint thread ... 
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Jan 31, 2024 00:07
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Let's talk solutions USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST
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Jan 31, 2024 00:10
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Microplastics posted:If there's anything I've learned from the last few years it's that sea level rise - long considered the main problem of climate change - is the least of our worries lol loving lmao I want to move to an island and I'm trying to work out how much time I'll have to enjoy the beach
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Jan 31, 2024 00:14
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pen island will be the first to be swallowed
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Jan 31, 2024 00:42
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TeenageArchipelago posted:well, they'll never willingly implement them we’ll get around to it eventually
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Jan 31, 2024 00:44
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scientists have been politely suggesting we cut emissions for at least 50 years, governments are still humming and hawing about it. nothing will be done and I believe SCP 8.5 is optimistic https://wraltechwire.com/2023/09/29/just-how-bad-is-climate-change-its-worse-than-you-think-says-doomsday-author/ posted:
starkebn has issued a correction as of 00:59 on Jan 31, 2024 |
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Jan 31, 2024 00:57
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when i upload the video of the natural disaster that defeats me, there will be a watermark in the corner for unregistered hypercane 2
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Jan 31, 2024 00:57
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starkebn posted:scientists have been politely suggesting we cut emissions for at least 50 years, governments are still humming and hawing about it. That's RCP 8.5. SCP 8.5 is a being that consumes pure denial. But yeah, there is not going to be any mitigation. Any renewable energy will just get sucked up by shitcoins and LLMs and will supplement and not replace fossil energy. Every economy will grow and their energy consumption with it. Emissions will go down this century, but only because the human population will go down due to agricultural disruption and war. Humans won't stop, but it will be stopped.
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Jan 31, 2024 01:03
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The solution to pollution is climate change
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Jan 31, 2024 01:03
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wonder if there's been any cool nurdle news recently. Love nurdles. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/millions-of-tiny-plastic-nurdles-spain-beaches-ship/ guess spain has a bunch washing up on shore now. Some container full of them got lost at sea. Owns. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/17/nurdle-collecting-plastic-pellets-beaches bunch of nerds in the UK also love to go to the beach to collect them. Same, honestly. love the little buggers. They're great. drake no 1 billion americans, drake yes 1 trillion nurdles
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Jan 31, 2024 01:08
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TeenageArchipelago posted:wonder if there's been any cool nurdle news recently. Love nurdles. quote:A spokesperson for Danish shipping and logistics company Maersk confirmed the "regrettable" incident to CBS News, saying the plastic pieces were in a container on the charter vessel Toconao. The ship itself is not owned or manned by Maersk, but the company was handling their containers. lmao
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Jan 31, 2024 01:09
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*takes a deep breath of air filled with microplastics* Aaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhh
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Jan 31, 2024 01:09
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| # ? May 25, 2024 06:34 |
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Hit Man posted:*takes a deep breath of air filled with microplastics* hell yeah brother let me get a hit of that good poo poo
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Jan 31, 2024 01:12
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