(Thread IKs:
weg, Toxic Mental)
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This is fun: https://www.theguardian.com/music/2024/jan/31/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-super-bowl-rightwing-conspiracy-biden “The Democrats’ Taylor Swift election interference psyop is happening in the open,” Laura Loomer, a strange, Florida-based far-right activist who has described herself as a “proud Islamophobe”, wrote on X.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:23
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| # ? May 30, 2024 20:17 |
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Explodingdice posted:Not if Large Marge has her way, she wants it all to herself. She can’t handle the truth, nor the hog.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:24
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Seth Pecksniff posted:August but mostly after Labor Day when people start paying attention to the presidential race Labor Day representing a day of rest before having to endure the upcoming election season kinda makes Labor Day make sense in TYOOL 2024
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Jan 31, 2024 17:24
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no worthwhile editor is going to let a journalist get away with a statement as repetitive as "a strange, Florida-based"
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Jan 31, 2024 17:25
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Pope Corky the IX posted:Is she aware that Jordan doesn't share a border with Mexico? They both use that orange filter in movies, so they must be close by.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:28
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I’d like one Hunters Hog piled high please
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Jan 31, 2024 17:28
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Roblo posted:This is fun: It's almost like, and I know this is out there, the conservatives want to lose so they have an excuse to be violent. I just can't imagine why you'd pick a fight with Taylor Swift fans when you NEED PEOPLE TO LIKE YOU.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:28
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Jan 31, 2024 17:29
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kazil posted:not saying the poll is right but at what point can we not dismiss polls immediately? When they start becoming reasonably accurate. So, probably never.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:30
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Do we have a polling thread anymore?
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Jan 31, 2024 17:30
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I dunno about the doomering as the election is about the handful of battleground states and many GOP parties are going bankrupt in them, MI is basically blue now and unless trump can get more electoral votes from some other state I don’t see how he can get enough to win. I guess there is always a chance that something goes wrong but I don’t see it happening. TRUMP can’t even sell out his big rallies anymore, I usually agree with the idea of not dismissing polls but the midterms showed polling very off with trump and maga having wayyy less impact than people thought. E: Hunter’s hogs!
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Jan 31, 2024 17:32
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FWIW 
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Jan 31, 2024 17:34
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In 2022, the polls predicted a Red Wave and then three House seats in Ohio - that weren’t even on anyone’s radar as competitive - flipped to Democrats. The polls simply aren’t reaching a certain swath of the electorate. We’re heading back to “Dewey Defeats Truman” territory.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:38
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cr0y posted:FWIW https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1529194725282041862?t=x9LCWd0c3T8h35xtl7riaw&s=19
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Jan 31, 2024 17:39
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cr0y posted:FWIW I'm having a hard time understanding how a market evaluates a Biden-Trump toss-up, but a Dem lead over the GOP for the office itself.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:39
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Everyone benefits from a horserace. Trump can claim hes winning, Biden can scare Dems with the threat of Trump winning, and media gets to scream about how close it all is.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:40
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Just wanna rewind and say I really like that this meme uses a factual description of the people it’s ridiculing instead of the typical name-calling and meaningless labels like 'conservatives'. This is how we win the long game, by not buying into their tribalist framing. More of this please.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:40
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Lord Packinham posted:I dunno about the doomering as the election is about the handful of battleground states and many GOP parties are going bankrupt in them, MI is basically blue now and unless trump can get more electoral votes from some other state I don’t see how he can get enough to win. yeah many goons ITT are also failing to account for the fact that state level parties are verging on bankrupt and all but admitting they can't win a fair election. Like Mississippi is trying to ban ballot measures that protect abortion access because they don't think they can win that fairly. It's loving Mississippi! Never say it's a done deal though because poo poo changes and at the end of the day we are effectively staking hopes on the health of an elderly man in the highest stress job we've eve been able to dream up.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:41
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Sedgr posted:Everyone benefits from a horserace. Trump can claim hes winning, Biden can scare Dems with the threat of Trump winning, and media gets to scream about how close it all is. And if Donald Trump marries a racehorse their kid is gonna be really fast.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:41
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Serious_Cyclone posted:I'm having a hard time understanding how a market evaluates a Biden-Trump toss-up, but a Dem lead over the GOP for the office itself. I'd imagine that Biden being incapacitated and replaced with a younger candidate is seen as likely, and since his age seems to be the main line of attack the GOP is going for, it makes a modicum of sense. The 53/49 spread having overlap is what weirds me out, shouldn't that get almost immediately traded into a non-overlapping state? Maybe I just don't get predictive markets...
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Jan 31, 2024 17:42
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Yeah well the polls don't take into account Biden rigging and stolling the election 
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Jan 31, 2024 17:42
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Aramis posted:I'd imagine that Biden being incapacitated and replaced with a younger candidate is seen as likely, and since his age seems to be the main line of attack the GOP is going for, it makes a modicum of sense. Because it's not a bunch of rational actors making maximally informed decisions, it's just a vibes check from gambling and politics addicts
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Jan 31, 2024 17:43
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Failed Imagineer posted:https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1529194725282041862?t=x9LCWd0c3T8h35xtl7riaw&s=19 Nate Silver citing a betting/gambling site is kinda lol. That's definitely a source that's trying to sell some poo poo. Serious_Cyclone posted:I'm having a hard time understanding how a market evaluates a Biden-Trump toss-up, but a Dem lead over the GOP for the office itself. I believe there may be a fundamental problem with the sources, here. Call me crazy, though.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:43
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Polls, polls will tear us apart again
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Jan 31, 2024 17:45
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Until the pollsters can figure out a way to actually reach Millennials or Zoomers who never answer phone calls, they will be underreporting a very large portion of the electorate
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Jan 31, 2024 17:45
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ragnarokette posted:Because it's not a bunch of rational actors making maximally informed decisions, it's just a vibes check from gambling and politics addicts But wouldn't selling Biden and buying Trump in equal amounts (or whatever is the correct hedging strategy needed to leverage the overlap) be 100% guaranteed profit at the moment? There's got to be at least a few finance nerds on there latching on to stuff like that. Aramis fucked around with this message at 17:51 on Jan 31, 2024 |
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Jan 31, 2024 17:45
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Serious_Cyclone posted:I'm having a hard time understanding how a market evaluates a Biden-Trump toss-up, but a Dem lead over the GOP for the office itself. the world of political betting is loving wild, because it frequently ends up being more correct than wonks like silver but also appears to be self-contradictory every time you look at it. Waffle House posted:Nate Silver citing a betting/gambling site is kinda lol. That's definitely a source that's trying to sell some poo poo.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:46
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I think like 28 of the last 30 or published polls have gone for Trump, with the other two being ties. Inaccurate or not, it’s still more than a little disconcerting that the callous rapist who gleefully broke up families, tear-gassed his own citizens and staged a failed coup on the Capitol (where people actually died) can still garner that kind of support. It’s sometimes hard not to think that America isn’t worthy of being saved.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:47
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ragnarokette posted:Because it's not a bunch of rational actors making maximally informed decisions, it's just a vibes check from gambling and politics addicts Yup its people like Helen here. quote:WIth Betfair still accepting wagers long after voting had stopped, some bettors like Helen dropped more money on the race, on the basis of voter-fraud theories.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:47
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Aramis posted:I'd imagine that Biden being incapacitated and replaced with a younger candidate is seen as likely, and since his age seems to be the main line of attack the GOP is going for, it makes a modicum of sense. I see, I was trying to get it to jive with the expectation that Trump won't be the GOP nominee, but there's no way to get that to be consistent with a Dem party advantage. I assume the 53/49 spread is a way to increment these markets by discrete amounts while allowing for sub-increment percentage changes, so a 53/49 spread indicates an odds of 51.96% Dem to 48.04% GOP
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Jan 31, 2024 17:49
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If you could figure out the general demos of the users of PredictIt you could probably make a ton of money on that site lol
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Jan 31, 2024 17:53
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cr0y posted:FWIW Predictit is dumb money. Last election they had Biden at like 20 cents pre south Carolina which, if you were remotely paying attention was basically free money
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Jan 31, 2024 17:54
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There's that hateful rhetoric the GOP is known for! Edit: Won't SOMEBODY think of the right to work laws?
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Jan 31, 2024 17:58
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Apparently it is once again time for clueless politicians to fish for soundbytes about social media: https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1752737774896091354?s=46&t=G1x8XWIwrNxUQoXItlkh2w
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Jan 31, 2024 17:59
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Coolguye posted:the world of political betting is loving wild, because it frequently ends up being more correct than wonks like silver but also appears to be self-contradictory every time you look at it. I have my doubts here, as that is a business with a vested interest, indeed their business *plan* is taking your money.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:59
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I remember that one goon who had a spreadsheet of all the polls for the Obama vs Romney and had Romney winning all these crazy states. It was ridiculous, but his spreadsheet numbers never lie were his proof. I think he died on election day.
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Jan 31, 2024 18:00
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Hail https://twitter.com/FFRF/status/1752719948139442193
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Jan 31, 2024 18:02
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Everyone is free to correct the poll output to match what they believe the results should be.
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Jan 31, 2024 18:03
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Polling is definitely hosed because in multiple instances over the last even 2 years multiple polls have been just dead wrong about Republicans success.
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Jan 31, 2024 18:03
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| # ? May 30, 2024 20:17 |
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Remember Romney? And his toothpaste logo?
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Jan 31, 2024 18:03
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