Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
What is the most powerful flying bug?
This poll is closed.
🦋 15 3.71%
🦇 115 28.47%
🪰 12 2.97%
🐦 67 16.58%
dragonfly 94 23.27%
🦟 14 3.47%
🐝 87 21.53%
Total: 404 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
  • Post
  • Reply
gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/OlgaBazova/status/1753750196876386730?t=WY7hsLy9YFpcH6SzXJqPpg&s=19

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Regarde Aduck posted:

Funny to think that if the Polish could control themselves for just a second they would almost certainly been able to snatch lviv back. Bit of rational self interest as opposed to the angry tiny snappy dog thing they got going on.
he's gonna do it.

Organ Fiend
May 21, 2007

custom title

Lostconfused posted:

he's gonna do it.

Tired: Lviv and Kyiv
Wired: Lwow and Kiev

VoicesCanBe
Jul 1, 2023

"Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"
Did the coup happen yet

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Organ Fiend posted:

Tired: Lviv and Kyiv
Wired: Lwow and Kiev

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/rshereme/status/1753641615611023521?t=c4XEDoKRt4dn8Gn5NkoxXQ&s=19

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe
nobody tell him about a certain mister von braun

Soapy_Bumslap
Jun 19, 2013

We're gonna need a bigger chode
Grimey Drawer
So why is "Russia has to dig into their old stockpiles!" such an own? If you have it, and it functions, why wouldn't you put it on the lines and put that at risk instead of the shiny new stuff? Sooner or later the stockpile will be worthless, and a 50 year old tank is still a god damned tank!

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe
russia does it and therefore it has to be a bad thing because russia only ever does bad things

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Soapy_Bumslap posted:

So why is "Russia has to dig into their old stockpiles!" such an own? If you have it, and it functions, why wouldn't you put it on the lines and put that at risk instead of the shiny new stuff? Sooner or later the stockpile will be worthless, and a 50 year old tank is still a god damned tank!

The implication is that dipping into stockpiles means they're running out of the stuff, which implies desperation, which implies losing

Spergin Morlock
Aug 8, 2009

gradenko_2000 posted:

The implication is that dipping into stockpiles means they're running out of the stuff, which implies desperation, which implies losing

which is funny considering all the stories about the US and Europe scraping their old stockpiles to send poo poo to Ukraine.

uhh yea we cant do f16s right now (paying customers first) but we have some older f5s you're welcome to check out Mr zelenskyy

Phigs
Jan 23, 2019

Stupid Russians don't understand you're supposed to hoard vehicles and ammo like they're elixirs in an RPG.

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer
yeah the digging into stockpiles stuff is because most of the west believes they've lost 6000+ tanks

hence they must be taking T-62's out of stockpile to use them. And we never saw the loving things ever again. And we've also never stopped seeing T-72B3M's, T-90's and T-80's. It's all most odd but your average gbs type nato fuckwit can't even identify these tanks so they don't care, it's about the vibes.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Lostconfused posted:

he's gonna do it.

Duda will want to gently caress over Tusk so sure, why not take over Galicia? :thunk:

Soapy_Bumslap
Jun 19, 2013

We're gonna need a bigger chode
Grimey Drawer
Tech tree brain would have you face down a Sherman tank bare-fisted, Kenshiro style, because as obsolete equipment it is no longer a huge problem to deal with

BadOptics
Sep 11, 2012

Regarde Aduck posted:

yeah the digging into stockpiles stuff is because most of the west believes they've lost 6000+ tanks

hence they must be taking T-62's out of stockpile to use them. And we never saw the loving things ever again. And we've also never stopped seeing T-72B3M's, T-90's and T-80's. It's all most odd but your average gbs type nato fuckwit can't even identify these tanks so they don't care, it's about the vibes.

No, you see the Asiatic mind can't comprehend that the best method of getting more guns on the front line isn't to pull old tanks out of storage because an old 100mm gun will blow up entrenched positions just as good as a new one. Instead you spend billions on something like this where you don't even know what to call it or how it'll fit within your overall doctrine.

Edit:

quote:

The initial contract is for 96 low rate initial production (LRIP) vehicles, with first delivery by the end of 2023.[6]

Amazing.

Edit2: lol

quote:

The Army is set to procure up to 504 M10s, all of which will be allotted to light divisions in the active duty and National Guard.

BadOptics has issued a correction as of 17:40 on Feb 3, 2024

Enjoy
Apr 18, 2009

Regarde Aduck posted:

yeah the digging into stockpiles stuff is because most of the west believes they've lost 6000+ tanks

hence they must be taking T-62's out of stockpile to use them. And we never saw the loving things ever again. And we've also never stopped seeing T-72B3M's, T-90's and T-80's. It's all most odd but your average gbs type nato fuckwit can't even identify these tanks so they don't care, it's about the vibes.

oryx has 97 pictures of lost T-62 variants

Lord of Pie
Mar 2, 2007



It's not unusual for NASA missions to include Americans

Phigs
Jan 23, 2019

I think the most charitable explanation is that they're thinking of stockpiles as like a savings account that you're hoping to never dip into and would only do so when you're running out of money. Thus Russia dipping into stockpiles is "proof" that they're running out of resources. Which of course ignores the fact that rotating your stockpiles is actually a good idea when dealing with physical things and not just entries in a bank database, and often weapon stockpiles are less for last resort and more something you expect to to use during any large-scale conflict. It could be that Russia is running out, but it could just as easily be Russia using their stockpiles appropriately.

sleep with the vicious
Apr 2, 2010

Cosmonaut disonformatskiya

Gripweed
Nov 8, 2018

It’s pretty funny that “just keep fighting until the enemy runs out of ammunition and their leader is deposed by internal opposition” was how the Ukrainians were supposed to win.

Dokapon Findom
Dec 5, 2022

They hated Futanari because His posts were shit.
Stockpiling is hoarder mentality. No point having it if you're not going to use it

Organ Fiend
May 21, 2007

custom title

Poster adds context they thought people might want to know:

Lol, lmao

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


Soapy_Bumslap posted:

So why is "Russia has to dig into their old stockpiles!" such an own? If you have it, and it functions, why wouldn't you put it on the lines and put that at risk instead of the shiny new stuff? Sooner or later the stockpile will be worthless, and a 50 year old tank is still a god damned tank!
russia digs into stockpiles like this

US/Europe dig into stockpiles like THIS

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006

Enjoy posted:

oryx has 97 pictures of lost T-62 variants

Are they all the same tank from different angles at different times of day?

Minenfeld!
Aug 21, 2012



GoLambo posted:

Are they all the same tank from different angles at different times of day?

Some are Russian losses that have "Makhno" painted on the turret as he is a beloved Russian folk hero.

Son of Thunderbeast
Sep 21, 2002

Gripweed posted:

It’s pretty funny that “just keep fighting until the enemy runs out of ammunition and their leader is deposed by internal opposition” was how the Ukrainians were supposed to win.

I have to imagine at least some of the calculus was looking at themselves and thinking "well this would certainly topple us, why wouldn't it work for Russia"

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

Gripweed posted:

It’s pretty funny that “just keep fighting until the enemy runs out of ammunition and their leader is deposed by internal opposition” was how the Ukrainians were supposed to win.

Everything sounds like it's going great from a glance!

Enjoy
Apr 18, 2009

Minenfeld! posted:

Some are Russian losses that have "Makhno" painted on the turret as he is a beloved Russian folk hero.

ukraine only operate captured russian t-62s, they got rid of their stock in the 90s

https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/92528/05_Jul.pdf

Slavvy
Dec 11, 2012

Enjoy posted:

ukraine only operate captured russian t-62s, they got rid of their stock in the 90s

https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/92528/05_Jul.pdf



Finally, a real tankie among all the posers

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

Enjoy posted:

oryx has 97 pictures of lost T-62 variants

lol this is an all-timer right here

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

Incompetent primitive Putin!

DJJIB-DJDCT
Feb 1, 2024

Enjoy posted:

oryx has 97 pictures of lost T-62 variants

😴

BULBASAUR
Apr 6, 2009




Soiled Meat
Ukraine descends into a civil war after a coup while fighting a loosing war of attrition everyone hates, foreign powers eyeing its borders for expansion, generations of immiserated people. hmmm where have we seen this formula before

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

VoicesCanBe posted:

If there's a military coup it'll be extremely funny seeing the takes about how we need to continue arming democratic Ukraine as it defends itself against autocratic Russia.

Mali had a military coup, after which the coup government asked for help fighting the Touaregs from France, who then proceeded to form a coalition that NL was dumb enough to join. It was sold to us as not a neocolonial invasion because "the government asked for our help", completely ignoring the "just after they couped the democratically elected government" part.

Orange Devil has issued a correction as of 22:33 on Feb 3, 2024

Endman
May 18, 2010

That is not dead which can eternal lie, And with strange aeons even anime may die



Big Poland Big Poland Big Poland

*slamming fist on desk*

BIG POLAND BIG POLA

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

Soapy_Bumslap posted:

So why is "Russia has to dig into their old stockpiles!" such an own? If you have it, and it functions, why wouldn't you put it on the lines and put that at risk instead of the shiny new stuff? Sooner or later the stockpile will be worthless, and a 50 year old tank is still a god damned tank!

When they do it its desperation. When we do it its innovative thinking and a daring can-do attitude.

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
If Russia really needs to dig back into their 50 year old tank stockpiles, all the more reason for Russia to keep pushing for more buffer zone until they can't push no more.

Having decades old tanks reserve is one thing Russia has advantage over NATO. In 2024 they can still refurbish their old tanks. You would if war break out again in Eastern Europe in 30 years, those piles of metal are definitely too old to use, so might as well keep the war going until they take the most of the land in the east side of the river plus Odessa.

Phigs
Jan 23, 2019

Take everything you want, give the rest to Poland.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

fizziester
Dec 21, 2023

Source: Financial Times


https://www.ft.com/content/08179b6b-bcb2-442d-9137-38072be0faa3


Ukraine under closer western scrutiny
Tony Barber
11 MINUTES AGO

Welcome back. A question for readers: have you noticed, over the past two months or so, a certain change of focus in the reporting and commentary in western countries on Ukraine? I have — and you can email me your thoughts at tony.barber@ft.com.

For most of the two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, the emphasis was on Ukraine’s heroic self-defence, the impressive leadership qualities of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the paramount need for western governments to maintain military and financial support for the Ukrainian struggle against its revanchist enemy.

This began to change towards the end of 2023, as it became clear that Ukraine’s counteroffensive had failed to achieve a breakthrough, and that US and European backing for Kyiv’s war effort was mired in political difficulties.

On Thursday, the EU overcame Hungarian objections and approved a €50bn aid package for Ukraine — a decision that received the western media’s full attention. Still, such coverage doesn’t detract from the impression that there is nowadays more reporting and analysis of domestic political tensions in Ukraine, corruption and problems in areas such as recruitment for the armed forces.

Neither the Biden administration nor most European governments are talking in public about applying pressure, mild or otherwise, on Ukraine to end the war. Overwhelmingly, western support for Ukraine’s long-term independence and alignment with the democratic world remains firm. Suspicion and dislike of President Vladimir Putin and his autocratic, neo-imperialist Russia run high.

However, it seems to me that the shift in western news coverage and commentary reflects an emerging impulse among some policymakers and opinion-formers to question for how long, and under what conditions, western support should continue for Ukraine’s war effort.


Zelenskyy and Zaluzhny

This week brought a good illustration of the switch in focus to Ukraine’s domestic scene. It has been an open secret since late last year that not all is smooth in the relationship between Zelenskyy, the civilian head of state, and Valeriy Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces.

Now, as the FT’s Christopher Miller reports from Kyiv, it appears that Zelenskyy may have decided to remove Zaluzhny from his post.

To be clear, the historical record shows that it is perfectly normal and sometimes useful to change military leaders — and even political leaders — during a war. To cite one example, the UK and France paved the way to victory in the first world war by replacing the prime ministers and military commanders under whom they had entered the fighting in 1914.

However, Mark Galeotti, a prominent western commentator on the Russian-Ukrainian war, was not alone this week in suggesting, in a piece for The Spectator magazine, that “Zelenskyy’s rivalry with Zaluzhny spells bad news for Ukraine”.

One reason is that Zaluzhny is more popular than Zelenskyy with the Ukrainian public. In the survey below, published by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, we see that trust in Zelenskyy dropped to 62 per cent last December from 84 per cent in December 2022.

By contrast, 88 per cent of Ukrainians expressed trust in Zaluzhny (there are no comparable data for a year earlier).

As Gwendolyn Sasse points out for the Carnegie Europe think-tank, the decline in support for Zelenskyy isn’t alarming. His ratings are still high, and in a long war it’s only natural that the “rally round the flag” effect should wane over time.

However, she adds: “Society simply expects Zelenskyy and Zaluzhny to co-operate.”


A return of oligarchy?

In my view, the Zelenskyy-Zaluzhny dispute is important not only in itself, but because it relates to the way that some western specialists are starting to question the president’s leadership in terms of the quality of democracy and governance in Ukraine.

In this article for Business Insider, published in December, Paul Starobin, an author with long experience of Russia and Ukraine, took a look at Andriy Yermak. As head of Zelenskyy’s presidential office, Yermak is widely regarded as the second most powerful civilian figure in Ukraine.

Starobin quotes Daria Kaleniuk, a respected anti-corruption campaigner, as saying that Russia’s invasion “largely destroyed the generation of oligarchs who had enjoyed free rein to plunder Ukraine’s economy since the country freed itself from the Soviet Union in 1991”.

According to Kaleniuk, however, Yermak is “intoxicated with power” and may be creating a new system of oligarchy, over which he presides.


Starobin writes:

By her account, Yermak, through his deputies in the Office of the President and cabinet advisers at his beck and call, is manoeuvring to exert control over a large swath of Ukraine’s economy, as well as its law enforcement and security apparatus …

What she was describing, in effect, is the formation of an accidental oligarchy, under the cover of martial law invoked by the Zelenskyy government.



Perhaps this argument is overstated. But the risk of a new oligarchy may be rising under the extreme pressures of wartime economic management. As Luke Cooper writes in this perceptive analysis of Ukraine’s economy for Social Europe, “Kyiv is now overseeing the most far-reaching expansion of the state’s economic role since independence”.


Corruption: progress and setbacks

Alongside western interest in political and business power struggles in Ukraine, attention is turning once again to corruption.

In its 2023 corruption perceptions index, released this week, the watchdog Transparency International placed Ukraine 104th equal, next to Algeria, Brazil and Serbia and up from 116th equal in 2022. (In TI’s 180-country list, Russia was 141st equal this year.)

TI’s index uses surveys from experts and business leaders to rank countries by the perceived level of corruption in their public sectors.

Ukraine’s latest score shows that the fight against corruption is making some progress. As TI’s Ukrainian branch highlights, anti-corruption agencies in Kyiv started 101 criminal proceedings last year against 257 persons, and a special court for such cases passed 65 sentences.

However, new examples of corruption keep cropping up. Last month, Ukraine’s security service said it had uncovered a $40mn fraud scheme in weapons procurement.


Freedom and democracy

Corruption isn’t the only issue unsettling Ukraine’s western friends. Another is political and media freedom.

Writing for the US Council on Foreign Relations last month, Thomas Graham discussed the problem that, under martial law, parliamentary elections due last autumn were postponed and a presidential contest scheduled for this year is likely to suffer the same fate.


Graham observes:

 . . . the longer the country goes without elections — which could be quite some time given that the war is currently at an impasse — the more questions about Ukraine’s commitment to democracy will mount, in both Ukraine and the west.

 . . . the risk is that the suspension of elections becomes self-perpetuating, with Zelenskyy or future leaders pointing to a continuing massive Russian threat to justify their actions.



As far as concerns media freedom, curtailed since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Christopher Miller (once again) reported last month on a series of mysterious “attacks and smear campaigns targeting prominent Ukrainian journalists”. In the eyes of some Ukrainians, these incidents have cast a shadow over Zelenskyy’s record on protecting freedom of expression.


Rethinking the nature of victory


I wish to restate that the intensified western scrutiny of conditions in Ukraine doesn’t imply an imminent danger of collapse in support for Kyiv. Indeed, this week’s EU decision suggests the opposite — though, in the US, questions linger over Republican party backing for Ukraine, as outlined in this analysis by Mateusz Piotrowski for the Polish Institute of International Affairs.

Undoubtedly, western policymakers and commentators are aware that too strong a focus on Ukraine’s shortcomings risks playing into Russia’s hands, particularly the Kremlin’s relentless propaganda theme that Ukraine is an illegitimate state.

Even so, some analysts in the west are now airing the view that Ukraine and its western friends should redefine the meaning of “victory” in the war. In particular, should the liberation of all Ukrainian territory from Russian control be a precondition for the conflict’s end?

The most coherent commentary along these lines appeared this week on the European Leadership Network site.


It was written by Karsten Friis of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, who said:

Ukraine must . . . define its victory on its own terms, in a way which Russia cannot prevent. This definition of victory should be decoupled from territorial demarcation lines . . . It can be achieved in steps or dimensions, such as a vibrant democracy, a growing economy, societal welfare, as well as territorial liberation.


At present, neither Ukraine’s leaders nor their western backers seem ready to take this leap. But it wouldn’t surprise me if discussion of such ideas advanced in the course of 2024.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply