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BRJurgis posted:
There are deep, deep structural issues that have to be resolved and lots of institutional power structures with a vested interest in keeping things this way that will fight any sort of change, so it's a huge uphill battle. The First Past the Post system guarantees that the only mathematically long-term stable result is a two-party system. These parties are mostly an assemblage of random unrelated policies sorted by previous campaigns, and most issues have more than two sides anyway, so internal consistency is all but impossible. These parties are also so entrenched that it's almost impossible to do anything without going through their respective apparatuses, which means any newcomers have to be ground up through the machine before reaching power and guaranteeing the parties' objectives. Trump is a notable exception. The electoral system has been horribly warped from its inception to favor the rich, monied minority and expanded suffrage has only partially counteracted it. The Senate explicitly is designed to give a favor to smaller states, and refusal to abandon the filibuster has made passing legislation all but impossible. The House is supposed to be representative of the country as a whole, but since its size has been frozen for decades it means smaller states again get disproportionate representation. The legacy of Jim Crow and gerrymandering again favor the rich minority, and the electoral college even further amplifies their power. This has resulted in six of the nine Supreme Court justices being nominated by presidents that lost the popular vote, and that same Supreme Court doing things like Citizens United that gives the rich more power and representation than they already had. Culturally, right wing media has cultivated an audience of anti-intellectual, incurious, tribalistic people addicted to fear, hate, and rage because they're more exploitable that way, economically and politically. This has infected the broader culture because what should be opposition is still afraid to alienate a potential market out of a mistaken sense of decorum, fairness, or balance. It has made it so that science, reason, logic, evidence, and critical thinking are seriously atrophied skills. Because of the policies of the above the middle class is withering and people don't have the time, energy, or money any more to fight back effectively. It's hard to educate yourself on all the hosed up poo poo going on when you're already exhausted working 60 hours a week, still living in your parents' house, unable to pay off your student debts, and are just generally miserable and stuck. The forces above are also motivated to keep them that way because a sizeable chunk of voters are instructed to turn their anger on the poor, the refugee, the racial minority, and the other culture war bullshit and the opposition has been partially captured by the same monied interests.
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Feb 3, 2024 19:08
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Nucleic Acids posted:No Arab or Muslim American is under any obligation to vote for Joe Biden for any reason, least of all ones who have watched the entire Gazan branch of their family be annihilated over the past four months. Nobody is under obligation to vote for anyone!! Why do you keep making these same asinine posts over and over? If Arab or Muslim Americans think their lives will be better under Trump or a third party candidate, they should absolutely vote for them! That's how rational thought works! Literally what the system intends!
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Feb 3, 2024 19:14
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Nucleic Acids posted:No Arab or Muslim American is under any obligation to vote for Joe Biden for any reason, least of all ones who have watched the entire Gazan branch of their family be annihilated over the past four months. Quote a single person who said that Arab or Muslim Americans are obligated to vote for Biden
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Feb 3, 2024 19:37
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Does anybody here have a pulse on AI, bots, deepfakes, and troll forms being used for this round of elections? I can see plenty of results about it already but I wonder if anybody has gotten the overall flavor of it. I see a more headlines about China doing it than Russia this time.
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Feb 3, 2024 19:47
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Rocko Bonaparte posted:Does anybody here have a pulse on AI, bots, deepfakes, and troll forms being used for this round of elections? I can see plenty of results about it already but I wonder if anybody has gotten the overall flavor of it. I see a more headlines about China doing it than Russia this time. I thought Jacob Wohl was in hot water again because he was behind the Biden deepfake robo call?
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Feb 3, 2024 19:49
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B B posted:It would probably be easier to fight back against the "Donald the Dove" stuff if his opponent weren't actively supporting and enabling a genocide. I guess if you deliberately ignore literally everything that Donald Trump has said about the Palestinian genocide, that's true!
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Feb 3, 2024 22:27
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Nonsense posted:I thought Jacob Wohl was in hot water again because he was behind the Biden deepfake robo call? Was there anything pointing that at Wohl? Because if anything I figured that was far closer to a white hat operation considering how beyond pointless that was to try and disrupt, while still being important enough to have attention paid to it.
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Feb 3, 2024 22:35
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The Mattybee posted:I guess if you deliberately ignore literally everything that Donald Trump has said about the Palestinian genocide, that's true! And also his presidency, and his actions during it. The genocide has been going on for a while!
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Feb 3, 2024 22:39
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Tatsuta Age posted:Nobody is under obligation to vote for anyone!! Why do you keep making these same asinine posts over and over? If Arab or Muslim Americans think their lives will be better under Trump or a third party candidate, they should absolutely vote for them! That's how rational thought works! Literally what the system intends! He wants to stand at the trolley switch, watch five people get creamed, and say “this isn’t my fault! I couldn’t flip the switch! I’m not a murderer!” That’s the beginning and the end of it. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 3, 2024 22:53
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Kalli posted:Was there anything pointing that at Wohl? Because if anything I figured that was far closer to a white hat operation considering how beyond pointless that was to try and disrupt, while still being important enough to have attention paid to it. what points to it being a white hat op?
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Feb 3, 2024 22:55
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PhazonLink posted:what points to it being a white hat op? if you were going to do it for nefarious intent, you'd use it on a race with any relevance at all. Using it there points to someone trying to get enough attention on it to force political action to try and shut it down. At least, that seems far more plausible then Jacob Wohl trying to manipulate a primary where the incumbent candidate wasn't running and has no delegates.
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Feb 3, 2024 23:57
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Tatsuta Age posted:If Arab or Muslim Americans think their lives will be better under Trump or a third party candidate, they should absolutely vote for them! This isn't what anybody is saying, and I think you know that. "If you don't like Biden, then vote for Trump!" is an incredible disingenuous sort of illogic, that presumes that not liking one candidate obviously means you like another better, and not that you might just feel unsupported, politically.
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Feb 4, 2024 01:27
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https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1753938395548516624 Obama got 89% in SC in ‘12. Remember this next time you see a poll with xtabs showing trump winning a third of minority voters.
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Feb 4, 2024 03:01
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I know we probably know why tucker carlson is in moscow but, ok, really, why is tucker carlson in moscow
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Feb 4, 2024 03:32
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1753938395548516624 It appears that Obama won SC with more than 99% of the vote in 2012: Wikipedia posted:Incumbent President Barack Obama ran unopposed in the Democratic primary and easily won with more than 99% of the vote. The Democratic primary was held on January 28, 2012, one week after the Republican primary.
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Feb 4, 2024 03:37
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Nucleic Acids posted:No Arab or Muslim American is under any obligation to vote for Joe Biden for any reason, least of all ones who have watched the entire Gazan branch of their family be annihilated over the past four months. I know you're probed, but this is worth pointing out to others as how the motte-and-bailey works. When a powerful and satisfying (but vulnerable) argument is successfully attacked, fall back to an easily defended (but modest and non-controverial) argument and pretend that it supports the initial claim or refutes the attack rather than being something separate. In this case: Bailey: "Why should we think Trump is going to be worse than Biden? He might even flank Biden from the left!" Counter: "Here are all sorts of reasons why that's absurd and can't even be taken as an honest mistake." Motte: "Arab-Americans do not owe Biden their votes." Now, this poster never actually said the first. Other people did. But it's hard to read it as not being in support of "their side" of the argument. While the typical description of motte-and-bailey is applied to a two-person debate, in more freeform discussions it's real friendly to the tag-team approach. If someone else's bailey is breached, and you want to support their side of the debate at least in principle, it's really simple to offer the motte as though it were in response to the attack it doesn't actually intersect with.
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Feb 4, 2024 03:48
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1753938395548516624 The tweet you got that number from is using a cropped screenshot of the overall US democratic primary result.
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Feb 4, 2024 03:48
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It seems like Biden has improved his share of both the black and white votes in SC since 2020 https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1753942850323046752 https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1753944553260822907
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Feb 4, 2024 03:59
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Discendo Vox posted:The tweet you got that number from is using a cropped screenshot of the overall US democratic primary result. Ah, my mistake
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Feb 4, 2024 04:02
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What a meaningless "observation." Biden had four other candidates still running in the 2020 primary, which was also a contest where he was not the incumbent president. If he didn't increase his vote share with basically every demographic, he would be in deep poo poo.
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Feb 4, 2024 04:03
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Is it really useful to draw conclusions on the general based on comparing primaries with very different fields?
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Feb 4, 2024 04:08
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Normy posted:Is it really useful to draw conclusions on the general based on comparing primaries with very different fields? Probably not, barring extreme shifts.
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Feb 4, 2024 04:24
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Discendo Vox posted:Probably not, barring extreme shifts. There was a pretty extreme shift in vote totals. There were about 540,000 votes in the 2020 primary, and with 84% of the vote in there are only about 121,000 votes. Looks like there might be a huge enthusiasm problem, since Biden's only going to draw about 1/4th of the 2020 voters out to the polls. Pretty ominous. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 4, 2024 04:26
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B B posted:There was a pretty extreme shift in vote totals. There were about 540,000 votes in the 2020 primary, and with 84% of the vote in there are only about 121,000 votes. Looks like there might be a huge enthusiasm problem, since Biden's only going to draw about 1/4th of the 2020 voters out to the polls. Pretty ominous. Vote totals from the primary to the general are not what anyone was talking about.
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Feb 4, 2024 04:45
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Staluigi posted:I know we probably know why tucker carlson is in moscow but, ok, really, why is tucker carlson in moscow my guess is interview putin or some high up ghoul. or hell maybe he was thinking a warrent was dropping and he fled,
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Feb 4, 2024 04:52
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B B posted:There was a pretty extreme shift in vote totals. There were about 540,000 votes in the 2020 primary, and with 84% of the vote in there are only about 121,000 votes. Looks like there might be a huge enthusiasm problem, since Biden's only going to draw about 1/4th of the 2020 voters out to the polls. Pretty ominous. That's bait.
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Feb 4, 2024 04:55
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Normy posted:Is it really useful to draw conclusions on the general based on comparing primaries with very different fields? The tea leaves must be read, even if all we have are these grass clippings.
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Feb 4, 2024 04:56
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B B posted:There was a pretty extreme shift in vote totals. There were about 540,000 votes in the 2020 primary, and with 84% of the vote in there are only about 121,000 votes. Looks like there might be a huge enthusiasm problem, since Biden's only going to draw about 1/4th of the 2020 voters out to the polls. Pretty ominous. Bait it might be, but still the numbers are useful for serious discussion. That sounds like a better turnout than the last time a Democratic incumbent faced a primary. While I can't find South Carolina specific numbers for both, Democratic primary turnout in 2012 was some 18% of the 2008 numbers, and this one is 25%. If there's meat behind the idea that Democrats are upset with Biden whether due to his policies, his attitude, or his age, and they wanted someone else, you'd think that would be reflected in the proportionate results. If they were checking out of the election more than voters did after Obama's first turn, you'd expect to see overall numbers drop. By contrast if it was more shallow grumbling or an outright whispering campaign, the numbers we're seeing would make sense.
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Feb 4, 2024 04:58
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1753938395548516624 Glad to see Biden won a state he has a snowball's chance in hell of carrying in the general.
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Feb 4, 2024 05:06
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Magic Underwear posted:That's bait. We are obligated by current moderation policy to treat all bait as good faith.
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Feb 4, 2024 05:08
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C. Everett Koop posted:Glad to see Biden won a state he has a snowball's chance in hell of carrying in the general. In a primary without a serious competitor. Gee I wonder why turnout was low?
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Feb 4, 2024 05:11
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Looks like Desantis isn't off his fascism horse yet, and rescinded the drivers licenses of any trans person in FL who isn't listed as their birth gender https://twitter.com/CarlosGSmith/status/1752410932255298000
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Feb 4, 2024 06:06
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If I'm reading this correctly it's only for new licenses and changes to existing licenses. So, you know, still horrific, but the difference is relevant on the off chance any trans Florigoons are reading.
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Feb 4, 2024 07:46
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C. Everett Koop posted:Glad to see Biden won a state he has a snowball's chance in hell of carrying in the general. What point are you trying to make here? Nobody is saying that Biden winning this primary means he's going to win it in the general.
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Feb 4, 2024 08:20
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B B posted:Pretty ominous. You seen the new Quinnipiac poll https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3889
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Feb 4, 2024 08:30
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Bar Ran Dun posted:You seen the new Quinnipiac poll "Biden Opens Up Lead Over Trump In Head-To-Head, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Haley Leads Biden 1 On 1, But Trails When Third Party Candidates Are Added" Every piece of that poll ecosystem makes sense on its own because of course haley would be vote-split from the right
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Feb 4, 2024 08:54
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Google Jeb Bush posted:If I'm reading this correctly it's only for new licenses and changes to existing licenses. So, you know, still horrific, but the difference is relevant on the off chance any trans Florigoons are reading. The last part sounds like it's saying that having the "wrong" gender on your license at any point means they can go after you for fraud, not just when you apply for a new license.
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Feb 4, 2024 10:07
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Randalor posted:The last part sounds like it's saying that having the "wrong" gender on your license at any point means they can go after you for fraud, not just when you apply for a new license. It sounds like you could get in trouble if the gender marker on your license doesn’t match the gender marker on your other identifying documents. Or if a cop thinks your gender marker and presentation don’t match
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Feb 4, 2024 13:45
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haveblue posted:It sounds like you could get in trouble if the gender marker on your license doesn’t match the gender marker on your other identifying documents. Or if a cop thinks your gender marker and presentation don’t match It states pretty clearly that they're defining "gender" as your biological sex at birth, and that anyone whose license does not match that is subject to civil and criminal penalties. There is no getting around this. They are doing this because they want to ruin the lives of trans people in any way that they can. Florida is going full fascist and any LGBTQ+ people still living there need to try to figure out how to move away, especially trans people.
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Feb 4, 2024 14:11
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The big issue is that it's deliberately murky, so that Florida can selectively enforce this. As well, the discussion among trans people on Twitter is that FLDMV "biological sex" guidance is also aimed at out-of-state licenses. Also, not sure where this would fall under REAL ID, the federal standardization of state driver's licenses, or if you can even use other identifying documents, like U.S. passports. It feels like the murkiness of this is meant to get a discrimination case in front of the SCOTUS, with the result being enshrining "immutable biological sex" as a concept.
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Feb 4, 2024 14:12
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