|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:92 out of 100 people wearing a seatbelt every time they drive is a remarkably successful public safety campaign. It is still crazy that there are tens of millions of people who don't wear seatbelts in 2024, but 92% compliance is really good. It was only 11% in 1982. "Buckle it up, Buckle it up. Buckle it up or YOU'LL DIE!" Aw poo poo, what a terrible page snipe!
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 22:18
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 1, 2024 15:15 |
|
|
FistEnergy posted:Right. I completely agree. It's surreal. How were the Democrats outsmarted? If they can effectively communicate that Trump and the GOP are intentionally allowing the border to stay “broken” or whether people think it is when they vote GOP due to the border, they could deflate GOP support on that quite a bit.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 22:22
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:i mean the chuds won't obviously, but moderates who arnt fox types will probably get annoyed about it, to them its less "oh they have no dignity sir" and more "i thought this was a crisis and you were gonna pass something, why do you assholes do you jobs" type anger/annoyance. No one who doesn't have Fox News on an IV dip will even notice, and those who do won't care.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 22:23
|
|
|
Outsmarted is a bad move to describe when the opposition is too disorganized to effectively negotiate, so they end up throwing away a lot of what they were asking for. Dems are being undersmarted.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 22:24
|
|
|
Don't forget that a lot of Democratic voters do want something to be done about the border without giving much thought to what exactly, so telling them "we tried to do something about the border, but Republicans stopped us" is actually what they want to hear
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 22:26
|
|
|
FistEnergy posted:Right. I completely agree. It's surreal. You (and SA posters in general) are not the median Dem voter. 43% of Dem voters seem to think we should treat those crossing at the southern border "more harshly," only 16% of dem voters say we should "be easier on those trying to cross at the border." 62% say it's a crisis or serious and immediate problem. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-opinion-poll-americans-border-crisis/ (Crosstabs at the bottom of the page in the embedded PDF) Dem voters think Israel has gone too far by a slim majority, yet 58% think that sending them additional weapons to "Fight Hamas" is important. Given it's split down the middle he should do the right thing and torpedo the military aid to Israel but my guess is they're looking at the crosstabs and see the age split and so aren't politically concerned because of lower turnout among younger voters. https://apnorc.org/projects/half-believe-israels-military-response-in-gaza-has-gone-too-far/ Even the average dem/"progressive" voter in this country has to be brought kicking and screaming along to do anything approaching the right thing. This has been shown over and over again in poll after poll and even in direct referendums. haveblue posted:Don't forget that a lot of Democratic voters do want something to be done about the border without giving much thought to what exactly, so telling them "we tried to do something about the border, but Republicans stopped us" is actually what they want to hear Yeah, this is basically the perfect messaging win for dems to their base. At this point the RWM has won and everyone is Very Concerned about immigration currently, only inflation seems to be more important to people. The dem base, along with "independent voters" want to see something done so the republicans killing a bill that had bipartisan support until just recently is a bad look.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 22:28
|
|
|
Fork of Unknown Origins posted:If they can effectively communicate that Trump and the GOP are intentionally allowing the border to stay “broken” or whether people think it is when they vote GOP due to the border, they could deflate GOP support on that quite a bit. 1. They are terrible communicators, and basically every Dem-affiliated migrant advocacy group is not going to carry water for a bill this lovely, so who do you see handling the messaging in a way that appeals to the people most plugged-in on immigration policy in the Dems, the vast majority of whom would be representing constituencies either opposed to or targeted by this bill? 2. Do you really think GOP voters are going to believe anything anyone says over Trump and his surrogates? Do you think these disenchanted voters are gonna vote Dem? That seems extraordinarily unlikely. This was a terrible bill on its merits and is a horrific bellwether for the desire of the Dem establishment to stand on any kind of principle no matter what. I used to joke that the Dem counteroffer to automated turrets on the border when climate refugees increase to enormous levels will be that the turrets won’t be automated, and we’ll put AmeriCorps workers in charge of manning them. Doesn’t feel like a joke as much anymore!
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 22:28
|
|
|
haveblue posted:Don't forget that a lot of Democratic voters do want something to be done about the border without giving much thought to what exactly, so telling them "we tried to do something about the border, but Republicans stopped us" is actually what they want to hear This. The actual policy details don't matter to the vast majority of Americans. Literally all they have to say is that quote.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 22:28
|
|
|
Fork of Unknown Origins posted:? This analysis confuses cause and effect. People don't support the Republicans because they think the Republicans will be better on "the border" ; they support Republicans because they are racist, "the border" is a dogwhistle for a way to oppress brown people, and they believe at a fundamental level that Republicans are better on the issue of "the border" because they know the Republican Party is a racist hate engine and they don't believe the Democratic Party is. Biden is functionally trying to convince the people who threw tomatoes at Ruby Bridges that the Democrats are their party on a race related issue. It will never work, it's futile.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 22:29
|
|
|
selec posted:
As a wise man once said, https://twitter.com/randygdub/status/796229362643152896?t=-qTDm7TdLQTAGhT5KX9G0A&s=19
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 22:31
|
|
|
If you think about the average Democrat who believes immigration is an issue, “we tried to fix it but Republicans won’t let us” is a winning talking point if you don’t dive too deep. It’s a squishy issue for squishy Dems.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 22:36
|
|
|
 Speculation time: Trump is famously a teetotaller, so do we think AB Inbev paid him for this or what
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 22:36
|
|
|
zoux posted:
lmao at touting that ABInbev has a workforce comprising of 2.3% veterans, a rate 3x lower than the general population.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 22:55
|
|
|
FistEnergy posted:Right. I completely agree. It's surreal. The Dems got everything they wanted and the Republicans gave up everything they wanted. And Dems even get to brag that the Republicans are the ones screwing up here. How is this the DEMs being outsmarted and outmaneuvered...?
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 23:28
|
|
|
Fork of Unknown Origins posted:they could deflate GOP support on that quite a bit. This is not how the GOP mindset works. They could have video of Trump ferrying refugees across the border and his supporters would either say it's fake or that it's actually good.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 23:29
|
|
|
zoux posted:
i mean wouldnt such dark money transaction be trivially easy to spot? Don's mush brain is a broken clock that knows some culture war fights are duds.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 23:39
|
|
|
Kchama posted:The Dems got everything they wanted and the Republicans gave up everything they wanted. And Dems even get to brag that the Republicans are the ones screwing up here. How is this the DEMs being outsmarted and outmaneuvered...? I mean if the other bill passes, then yeah, but don’t count chickens etc.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 23:41
|
|
|
Kchama posted:The Dems got everything they wanted and the Republicans gave up everything they wanted. And Dems even get to brag that the Republicans are the ones screwing up here. How is this the DEMs being outsmarted and outmaneuvered...? The Democrats have completely ceded the argument that immigration and immigrants are bad for the America. That's good if you care about the Democrats as an entity or a team because they're winning but bad if you care about the Democrats as being an anti-racist anti-nativist anti-nationalist political party.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 23:41
|
|
|
wet_goods posted:I mean if the other bill passes, then yeah, but don’t count chickens etc. Well yes but they were claiming that getting the original bill passed was the Dems being outsmarted and outmanuevered. koolkal posted:The Democrats have completely ceded the argument that immigration and immigrants are bad for the America. As stated, most Americans, even on the left, want something to be done. The Dems getting to go 'oh well we TRIED, but the Republicans refused to let us!' while not actually doing anything is a pretty good win if you don't want the Dems to actually do that. And I don't want them to.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 23:46
|
|
|
koolkal posted:The Democrats have completely ceded the argument that immigration and immigrants are bad for the America.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 23:51
|
|
|
Yeah there’s a difference between “immigrants are bad for America” or “they’re invading us so we must close the border” and “the current border situation is a humanitarian crisis and is in desperate need of reform.” Which isn’t to say that this was good reform. But I don’t think the Democrats have effectively started screaming about caravans of terrorists and poisoning the blood of America by proposing it.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 23:53
|
|
|
STAC Goat posted:Yeah there’s a difference between “immigrants are bad for America” or “they’re invading us so we must close the border” and “the current border situation is a humanitarian crisis and is in desperate need of reform.” https://www.foxnews.com/media/al-sharpton-calls-border-crisis-invasion-wants-gop-senators-pressured-allowing-continue Democrats are literally going on TV and calling it an invasion (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 23:56
|
|
|
Kagrenak posted:Dem voters think Israel has gone too far by a slim majority, yet 58% think that sending them additional weapons to "Fight Hamas" is important. Given it's split down the middle he should do the right thing and torpedo the military aid to Israel but my guess is they're looking at the crosstabs and see the age split and so aren't politically concerned because of lower turnout among younger voters. Completely ignoring the concerns of younger voters & scolding them to vote for genocide guy is probably not a great idea, given that increased youth turnout over the past few cycles has been broadly necessary for the democrats to perform as well as they have. If 80% of Muslims sit out or vote third party and the youth vote turnout is 30% lower than in 2020, it's very hard to see how Biden can win this. I let my NYT subscription lapse so I can't find the article atm, but in addition to young voters & Muslims, this genocide poo poo is increasingly becoming a problem for Biden among black Christians. Pastors have been raising alarm bells, but it seems like Biden isn't listening to them either. I think Biden is making a huge mistake based on past data that shows that foreign policy/national security doesn't drive votes either way. Open support for blatant genocide forces us to confront the question of who we are in a very direct way that other foreign policy issues don't. If genocide (as we're all taught in elementary school) is the most heinous and repugnant crime there is, and we are openly supporting genocide, what does that say about us as a country? Some people aren't going to be able to stomach the blatant contradiction that arises when the "lesser of two evils" guy is actively supporting the most evil crime that can be committed. At any rate, it's definitely not likely to increase turnout, and I'm extremely skeptical that there are a sufficient number of "median democrats" willing to overlook this to push Biden over the finish line. Aside from the electoral math, it's loving repugnant that he won't show an ounce of empathy for Palestinian deaths. It's been ~120 days, 27k dead, >10k dead children, 2 million people currently starving to loving death and I haven't seen a single statement from Biden that would contradict the claim that he values Israeli lives more than Palestinian lives. There's no excuse for that. Even if he really doesn't value Palestinian lives, that he can't even bring himself to pretend that he does speaks volumes to his character. Like, my in-laws are liberal Muslims. They're all democrats. They all voted for Biden in 2020. They realize he's not going to make a total break with US policy w/r/t Israel for the past 50 years. But they're absolutely convinced that he sees Muslims as subhumans, and they feel like they've been used for their votes and then discarded. Even if he can win w/o their votes, that's unacceptable.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 23:57
|
|
|
To a good number of GOP voters, complaining about the border is just a cover for local petty racist issues. They won't pass the bill because they're not interested in actually securing the border, they just want to complain that white teenagers at Hardee's are having to learn how to say "onion rings" in Spanish to communicate with the kitchen. It's entirely a culture war battle dressed up as a national security policy. Splitting those people off from any actual border discussions might not deflate GOP support, but it makes the issue nuanced enough that Trump can not elaborate his position barring an emerging policy complaint wrapped up in a catchy slogan by the primetime Fox hosts who do his thinking for him. It's outstanding political strategy that will depress the people who believe in advocating for the good and proper thing 100% of the time, but those people also live among likeminded people in places disadvantaged by the electoral college. A 13 point slide in a state where you're +38 doesn't mean much. Craptacular! fucked around with this message at 00:07 on Feb 7, 2024 |
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 00:01
|
|
|
koolkal posted:https://www.foxnews.com/media/al-sharpton-calls-border-crisis-invasion-wants-gop-senators-pressured-allowing-continue Al Sharpton is not a legislator, he's a talk show host. And your own article (Fox News) notes that other liberals found those remarks to be 'highly controversial' to say the least. Kchama fucked around with this message at 00:07 on Feb 7, 2024 |
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 00:04
|
|
|
Kchama posted:Al Sharpton is not a legislator, he's a talk show host. And your own article (Fox News) notes that other liberals found those remarks to be 'highly controversial' to say the least. The "other liberals" cited are a law professor and a HuffPo writer. And it's not like Sharpton is a nobody, he's an MSNBC host. And he said this to a current US senator on Morning Joe, which as everyone knows is Joe Biden's favorite television program. And the senator was asking him for advice on how to get people to pressure other senators to pass the bill!
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 00:11
|
|
Leon has provided a summary of the problems of the current asylum system here:Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The border is pretty much boned until we fix the legal immigration process or people stop wanting to come to America. You can try to militarize the border and that might make it more orderly, but it is just going to result in the pre-2016 status quo of people sneaking across en masse instead of turning themselves in at the border - which is worse both in terms of the journey for the people and also likely to result in more illegal immigrants untracked and unsupported in the U.S. for the people who want to keep them out. Although, I guess it would be a success of stopping videos of huge amounts of people turning themselves in at border crossings if that was your goal. ...and discusses some of the perverse incentives of the current asylum program here: Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:They technically do. The people claiming asylum, whether they are being detained directly, put up in hotels, or placed with a sponsor, all get housing. Even the people being detained can leave and be deported whenever they want, but they are there voluntarily to try and wait out the process. Main Paineframe goes into further detail on burdens and polling here: Main Paineframe posted:The border authorities really are getting overwhelmed, though. That's why his "shut down the border" offer is paired with literally doubling the current asylum officer workforce and increase the number of immigration judges by about 50%, so they can start whittling down the ~1 million pending asylum applications still in the queue and clear the massive years-long immigration court backlog. Especially since polls are showing that voters think immigration is one of the most important issues to them coming into this election. GJB corrects the record on the form of the "offer" to "shut down the border" here: Google Jeb Bush posted:If I'm reading summaries correctly, the "shut down the border" clause (which is a weird way to put it, which is part of why I looked into it, but apparently that's the verbiage Biden went with so) refers to a formalization of the CBP/president being able to rapidly expel immigrants that cross the border at illegal points if there are 4k+ encounters in a day, and required to use that protocol if there are 5k+. It also has an interesting bit about if this is in play, then X number of immigrants (plus asylum seekers) must be allowed to approach legal border crossings per day. Not sure how that one's going to be properly implemented. All of which is to say, the details of the actual policy situation and public perception have been explained in detail, in the last two weeks, including to some of the same people ignoring these explanations now. Please do not require them to be reexplained from scratch, again. Gnumonic posted:Like, my in-laws are liberal Muslims. They're all democrats. They all voted for Biden in 2020. They realize he's not going to make a total break with US policy w/r/t Israel for the past 50 years. But they're absolutely convinced that he sees Muslims as subhumans, and they feel like they've been used for their votes and then discarded. Even if he can win w/o their votes, that's unacceptable. How have your in-laws been convinced of a falsehood?
|
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 00:33
|
|
. Instead, we just kind of hobble along with an outdated system and every attempt to update it since 1987 (37 years ago!!!) has failed.
|
koolkal posted:The "other liberals" cited are a law professor and a HuffPo writer. So why bring up Al Sharpton? Yes, he has a name, but he's also not directly involved. If the Dems still want to pass the negotiated bill instead of accepting the easy win of everything they want and nothing the Republicans want, then you can complain about them then, but a single talk show host saying poo poo isn't going to bother me.
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 00:39
|
|
|
 poo poo that's much close than I thought it would be, it seemed like the'd be more dissent
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 00:48
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/HouseDailyPress/status/1755014821819387947 Mayorkas impeachment defeated on the floor, does the Republican caucus even have a whip
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 00:48
|
|
|
zoux posted:https://twitter.com/HouseDailyPress/status/1755014821819387947 This might be one of those cases where they had to show the body so that the crazies would move on.
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 00:53
|
|
|
Gnumonic posted:Completely ignoring the concerns of younger voters & scolding them to vote for genocide guy TRUMP is the genocide guy. You don't get to memory hole Trump's actual actions in office, and I'm pretty sure his current statements on the crisis are along the lines of Israel not going far enough.
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 00:57
|
|
|
Stabbey_the_Clown posted:TRUMP is the genocide guy. You don't get to memory hole Trump's actual actions in office, and I'm pretty sure his current statements on the crisis are along the lines of Israel not going far enough. There’s enough room for more than one genocide guy. Biden’s a genocide guy now too. It’s genocide guys all the way down, at least when it comes to our national electeds, it would seem.
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 00:59
|
|
|
The standalone Israel funding bill also failed. What an embarrassing day to be Speaker of the House.
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 01:05
|
|
|
Gnumonic posted:I think Biden is making a huge mistake based on past data that shows that foreign policy/national security doesn't drive votes either way. Open support for blatant genocide forces us to confront the question of who we are in a very direct way that other foreign policy issues don't. If genocide (as we're all taught in elementary school) is the most heinous and repugnant crime there is, and we are openly supporting genocide, what does that say about us as a country? Some people aren't going to be able to stomach the blatant contradiction that arises when the "lesser of two evils" guy is actively supporting the most evil crime that can be committed. At any rate, it's definitely not likely to increase turnout, and I'm extremely skeptical that there are a sufficient number of "median democrats" willing to overlook this to push Biden over the finish line. Current data, right now, shows that foreign policy doesn't drive votes right now in the 2024 election. There are definitely times where foreign policy is an important factor in the election, but every available bit of data shows that the primary issues for most people in 2024 are "the economy/inflation", "immigration", and If "open support for blatant genocide" was as politically impactful as you say, then was US support for the Saudi genocide in Yemen a deciding factor in your vote? As brutal as the current Israeli campaign in Gaza has been, the bodycount there is only about a tenth of what's been inflicted against Yemen. Had you even heard about it today? Clearly the US population doesn't care that much about the US supporting its allies as they slaughter hundreds of thousands of people in brutal, near-indiscriminate military campaigns conducted in the name of destroying hostile terrorist factions. Apparently, the word "genocide" isn't enough by itself to dominate American politics, and people are able to stomach (or ignore) genocides just fine. The even-bloodier Syrian civil war has been pretty much forgotten too.
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 01:07
|
|
|
selec posted:There’s enough room for more than one genocide guy. Biden’s a genocide guy now too. It’s genocide guys all the way down, at least when it comes to our national electeds, it would seem. I think Trump promising to send US troops in genocide Gaza harder would be a much bigger 'no-no'.
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 01:13
|
|
|
if i ever found myself defending my genocider by saying the other genocider would make a bigger "no-no", it would probably make me take pause
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 01:19
|
|
|
Gnumonic posted:Completely ignoring the concerns of younger voters & scolding them to vote for genocide guy is probably not a great idea, given that increased youth turnout over the past few cycles has been broadly necessary for the democrats to perform as well as they have. If 80% of Muslims sit out or vote third party and the youth vote turnout is 30% lower than in 2020, it's very hard to see how Biden can win this. I let my NYT subscription lapse so I can't find the article atm, but in addition to young voters & Muslims, this genocide poo poo is increasingly becoming a problem for Biden among black Christians. Pastors have been raising alarm bells, but it seems like Biden isn't listening to them either. This is a very good post and some much-needed moral clarity and conviction. Thank you for sharing.
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 01:23
|
|
|
World Famous W posted:if i ever found myself defending my genocider by saying the other genocider would make a bigger "no-no", it would probably make me take pause Do you think that was a defense of Biden on Gaza? I was speaking to the perspectives of people who have Gaza as their reason to possibly support Trump.
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 01:29
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 1, 2024 15:15 |
|
|
zoux posted:https://twitter.com/HouseDailyPress/status/1755014821819387947 Just remember that them going after this guy was the consolation prize when they realized that moving forward with a Biden impeachment on shaky ground would just help him
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 01:35
|
|
