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Kchama posted:Do you think that was a defense of Biden on Gaza? I was speaking to the perspectives of people who have Gaza as their reason to possibly support Trump.
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Feb 7, 2024 01:35
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What does the House GOP have against Andy Milonakis again?
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Feb 7, 2024 01:37
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World Famous W posted:i don't think many people who condemn biden for this is voting trump (likely because he to is guilty of this poo poo) but i apologize for aiming that at you if it is not your opinion You'd be surprised. Too many people believe the nonsense about Trump being isolationist/dove. And not just on the left, either.
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Feb 7, 2024 01:43
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Eric Cantonese posted:What does the House GOP have against Andy Milonakis again? He's not Biden?
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Feb 7, 2024 01:43
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FlamingLiberal posted:Jesus Christ this is such a massive self-own https://twitter.com/MrSantosNY/status/1755014384009548256 Shoulda listened to Gaetz! https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1755017504638841055 Buddy, that's every day in Mike Johnson's House.
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Feb 7, 2024 01:45
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quote:Fake Biden robocall before N.H. primary linked to Texas company, AG says Maybe I missed it but I don't think this's been posted. I wonder if this "Walter Monk" is the same person as Jacob Wohl.
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Feb 7, 2024 01:49
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Eric Cantonese posted:What does the House GOP have against Andy Milonakis again? As the head of Homeland Security, the immigration/border buck is supposed to stop with him. I don’t remember exactly what he was accused of, but they wanted a scalp and weren’t that picky
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Feb 7, 2024 01:56
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So I assume even if they get the votes in the house the Senate would have to affirm the impeachment and there's basically no chance of that. Unless the system for impeaching a cabinet secretary is somehow dumb
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Feb 7, 2024 01:59
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haveblue posted:As the head of Homeland Security, the immigration/border buck is supposed to stop with him. I don’t remember exactly what he was accused of, but they wanted a scalp and weren’t that picky You may be shocked to hear this, but it is very stupid. https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-resolution/863/text Insofar as they cite anything about anything, it's that he didn't use his discretion to detain absolutely every unauthorized immigrant until review and instead pursued legally permissible alternatives to detention. which was admittedly a substantial and public Biden admin reform effort that I've been touting as good-if-insufficient, so of course Republicans are extremely angry
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Feb 7, 2024 02:02
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Kale posted:So I assume even if they get the votes in the house the Senate would have to affirm the impeachment and there's basically no chance of that. Unless the system for impeaching a cabinet secretary is somehow dumb Its all about sending a message, dontcha know?
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Feb 7, 2024 02:03
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Kale posted:So I assume even if they get the votes in the house the Senate would have to affirm the impeachment and there's basically no chance of that. Unless the system for impeaching a cabinet secretary is somehow dumb No you’re right. https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1753408044824764647 https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1755027753995514004 JFK Jr is alive…
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Feb 7, 2024 02:03
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Eric Cantonese posted:What does the House GOP have against Andy Milonakis again? Homeland Security runs CBP and the Border Patrol. They're mainly just trying to make him a human sacrifice to their base's anger about immigration, so they can look like they're doing something but don't have to go through the trouble of coming up with actual policies themselves. The right-wing media has portrayed him as a fanatical open-borders ideologue who hates the very idea of border enforcement and is deliberately sabotaging the border agencies by abusing humanitarian exceptions and refusing to support the troops.
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Feb 7, 2024 02:04
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Google Jeb Bush posted:You may be shocked to hear this, but it is very stupid. this. they are mad that he tried to use as many good/humane options as they could instead of putting turrents on the border with rotating knives. like i am sure the guy has blood on his hands and etc because DHS in general, but they are just mad that he isnt judge death.
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Feb 7, 2024 02:05
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Kale posted:So I assume even if they get the votes in the house the Senate would have to affirm the impeachment and there's basically no chance of that. Unless the system for impeaching a cabinet secretary is somehow dumb So yes, it's a meaningless action in terms of accomplishing the goal of getting him convicted of anything, but succeeding would have given them the headlines about a Democrat being impeached by the House which does accomplish those goals just fine. Same reason they were so desperate to impeach Biden.
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Feb 7, 2024 02:06
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mobby_6kl posted:https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/02/06/metro/fake-biden-robocall-nh-primary-texas-company-election-interference/?s_campaign=audience:reddit No, it's someone separate. The company's in "polling" and have been cited by FTC in the past; they have a ton of proxies and are basically as scummy as you'd think. Monk is, iirc, very old and may not be the one actually managing it, but we'd need to know who their client is.
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Feb 7, 2024 02:25
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Kagrenak posted:Yeah, this is basically the perfect messaging win for dems to their base. At this point the RWM has won and everyone is Very Concerned about immigration currently, only inflation seems to be more important to people. The dem base, along with "independent voters" want to see something done so the republicans killing a bill that had bipartisan support until just recently is a bad look. Not just their base, the entire electorate except the partisans on the edges of both parties. Trump and the Republican congressmen he whipped not fixing the problem now so they can run on fixing the problem in the future look just terrible voting against a reasonable bill. Trump cannot effectively run on immigration after this with anyone paying attention, and the attack ads for people not paying attention practically write themselves. Biden and the congressional Democrats supporting the bill on the other hand come out looking like the adults in the room with a plausible resolution to the current acute problems (edit before someone inevitable starts trying to straw-man me again, lax security + asylum claim backlog) without being excessively harsh and a willingness to do the thing that both moderates want and is simply good policy against primary risk from partisans in their own party. 12 years a lurker fucked around with this message at 03:26 on Feb 7, 2024 |
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Feb 7, 2024 03:06
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If Trump did something like this and offered something the left wants in exchange for a bunch of rightwing poo poo knowing it would never pass people would be saying he was a genius tearing the democratic party apart.
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Feb 7, 2024 03:43
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zoux posted:No you’re right. In case you are wondering what caused these neurons to fire, one of the democrats was in the hospital when this vote was scheduled, specifically because they wanted to take advantage of it. They wheeled Al Greene into the house in a wheelchair to cast his vote. Now MTG thinks they have secret votes, because she is an idiot. Womp Womp.
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Feb 7, 2024 05:40
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zoux posted:
It's because he owns $5 million in stock: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-anheuser-busch-stock-owner-wants-to-give-bud-light-another-chance I imagine Trump has been meeting with his finance people a lot lately and they finally got through to him just how hosed he is going to be after these verdicts comes down and he eventually loses on appeal. He's scrambling to do anything he can to increase the value of any assets he owns.
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Feb 7, 2024 06:02
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:They aren't even liars. They're living an emotional truth that has no necessary congruence with actual fact. Republicans are good for the economy like immigration is bad for the economy: two precepts that have been repeatedly disproved again and again for decades but that nevertheless feel true to republican voters. I'm at work so I can't really check, but does the belief that Republicans are good for the economy hold among people who came of age since 2000? Since then every major economic hit, outside "Biden's" inflatable has come hurtling at us from a Republican President's tenure.
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Feb 7, 2024 08:17
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mobby_6kl posted:https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/02/06/metro/fake-biden-robocall-nh-primary-texas-company-election-interference/?s_campaign=audience:reddit He and Burkman have been busy accosting people is the worst To Catch a Predator ripoff ever. With the supposed predator being there to meet a 36 year old woman, and knowing that he was going to meet a 36 year old woman. No clue how they aren't in a Maryland jail for surrounding this guy with drawn pistols. https://twitter.com/SeamusHughes/status/1754671978558996586  
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Feb 7, 2024 08:20
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12 years a lurker posted:Not just their base, the entire electorate except the partisans on the edges of both parties. Trump and the Republican congressmen he whipped not fixing the problem now so they can run on fixing the problem in the future look just terrible voting against a reasonable bill. Trump cannot effectively run on immigration after this with anyone paying attention, and the attack ads for people not paying attention practically write themselves. Yeah, we may not like the provisions of the bill, but through either political genius or tremendous luck the Dems have ended up with a golden opportunity. Every decorum dipshit and compromise fetishist in the country is now about to see a hundred commercials that tell how the Dems worked to craft an acceptable bipartisan bill to solve the issues at the border only for the GOP to sink it at the last minute purely for the sake of Trump's political ambitions. Anyone who looks further into it will find that the only 'falsehood' here is that it understates how the Republicans got almost everything they wanted in this bill and thrir loving around delayed movement on other extremely important matters. This is not a Dem L.
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Feb 7, 2024 10:01
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I had an acquaintance bring up "crazy down there, there's 10 thousand people arriving every day!" in passing. I didn't engage, because when people say stuff like that I assume it's like how Caravans!!! suddenly spike in news reports like clockwork before every election. What are the real figures involved? These CBP figures DO show a huge spike, and if that 2024 "BP Total Encounters" rate continues it does appear it would blow all past figures out of the water. Is this what people are looking at? https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics 
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Feb 7, 2024 12:54
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Bugsy posted:He and Burkman have been busy accosting people is the worst To Catch a Predator ripoff ever. With the supposed predator being there to meet a 36 year old woman, and knowing that he was going to meet a 36 year old woman. No clue how they aren't in a Maryland jail for surrounding this guy with drawn pistols. I know the answer is “they’re dumb” but how can you try to entrap someone in a pedo ring if all of your bait is clearly above age and seemingly the guy was told she was 36 and looked age appropriate? This is the dumbest honeypot I think I’ve ever read about.
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Feb 7, 2024 12:54
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Nosre posted:I had an acquaintance bring up "crazy down there, there's 10 thousand people arriving every day!" in passing. I didn't engage, because when people say stuff like that I assume it's like how Caravans!!! suddenly spike in news reports like clockwork before every election.
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Feb 7, 2024 12:57
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KKKLIP ART posted:I know the answer is “they’re dumb” but how can you try to entrap someone in a pedo ring if all of your bait is clearly above age and seemingly the guy was told she was 36 and looked age appropriate? This is the dumbest honeypot I think I’ve ever read about. Jacob Wohl is incredibly dumb even by the standards you habituate yourself to when discussing the far right griftosphere. No matter how dumb you think you can get, Wohl and Burkman have plumbed new depths
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Feb 7, 2024 13:00
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KKKLIP ART posted:I know the answer is “they’re dumb” but how can you try to entrap someone in a pedo ring if all of your bait is clearly above age and seemingly the guy was told she was 36 and looked age appropriate? This is the dumbest honeypot I think I’ve ever read about. They're liars. Constant, never-ceasing liars. In everything, at all times, liars. They'd "bait the pedo" with a 36 year old woman, then release the heavily edited video never showing that woman and say he was there to gently caress a child and harvest their adrenachrome.
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Feb 7, 2024 13:37
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So I guess the lesson I take away from this whole immigration thing is that even when the Republicans win, they still lose? Or am I deluding myself and everything is still terrible?
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Feb 7, 2024 14:38
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Nosre posted:I had an acquaintance bring up "crazy down there, there's 10 thousand people arriving every day!" in passing. I didn't engage, because when people say stuff like that I assume it's like how Caravans!!! suddenly spike in news reports like clockwork before every election. I haven't looked lately but historically immigration basically just tracks how many jobs are available. Purely demand driven. When recessions hit immigration evaporates. It wouldn't surprise me at all that the relative increase in salaries and dearth of low end wage employees would be driving a spike in immigration. That's not exactly a problem though if you like being able to buy produce. Hieronymous Alloy fucked around with this message at 14:44 on Feb 7, 2024 |
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Feb 7, 2024 14:42
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Nosre posted:I had an acquaintance bring up "crazy down there, there's 10 thousand people arriving every day!" in passing. I didn't engage, because when people say stuff like that I assume it's like how Caravans!!! suddenly spike in news reports like clockwork before every election. There really has been a large spike in arrivals at the border under Biden, to the point that the immigration bureaucracy (which was already pretty backlogged) and related systems and services have been largely overwhelmed. While views on what exactly the problem is and how to solve it tend to vary based on political perspective, the problem is real - it's not made up like the caravan stuff was.
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Feb 7, 2024 14:56
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The first phase of the new IRS enforcement project is set to begin this year. This initial expanded phase is limited in scope while they train and set up the new auditing divisions. The individual and business audit divisions established by the IRA won't both be fully up and running until 2026. This year, they are focusing on the top 10,000 highest-income individual taxpayers and the top 350 corporations with overdue, complicated, or unpaid taxes and expect to pull in an average of $85.1 billion in extra revenue per year over the next 10 years. Last year, the tax gap (the gap between taxes officially owed and the amount collected) hit a record high of just over $600 billion. Based on the preliminary data, the IRS expects to capture between 20 and 25 percent of the owed and unpaid taxes this year. They also expect to roughly triple the audit rate for individuals with income over $400,000 this year and roughly double the audit rate of corporations with at least $1 billion in revenue by next year. Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) says these are "pie in the sky" estimates and if they end up being accurate will actually be the result of increased enforcement on people making less than $75,000. He says the number one priority of the Ways and Mean Committee next year will be to defund the remaining $60 billion in IRS funding provided by the IRA. https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1755052550858965387 quote:WASHINGTON (AP) — The IRS is poised to take in hundreds of billions of dollars more in overdue and unpaid taxes than previously anticipated, according to new analysis released Tuesday by the Treasury Department and the IRS.
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Feb 7, 2024 15:03
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Inglonias posted:So I guess the lesson I take away from this whole immigration thing is that even when the Republicans win, they still lose? Or am I deluding myself and everything is still terrible? its more trump and maga chuds cant accept a compromise bill even when they get alot of what they want, because the dems still look good/ok/coopoerative. the chuds want a total victory where they are the only winners. the GOP is full purity nut now which helps the dems, but passing the lovely bill would have also somewhat helped the dems.
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Feb 7, 2024 15:32
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KKKLIP ART posted:I know the answer is “they’re dumb” but how can you try to entrap someone in a pedo ring if all of your bait is clearly above age and seemingly the guy was told she was 36 and looked age appropriate? This is the dumbest honeypot I think I’ve ever read about. it does note that "sarah" has a child, so i think the thinking is that the only reason a man would want to have any kind of romantic relationship with a 36 year old single mother is because he is a pedophile and wants to commit child abuse
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Feb 7, 2024 15:42
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Caros posted:In case you are wondering what caused these neurons to fire, one of the democrats was in the hospital when this vote was scheduled, specifically because they wanted to take advantage of it.
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Feb 7, 2024 15:58
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The head of data science and polling for Global Strategy Groups posted a long breakdown of all of their data and publicly available polling data about the 2024 election and Biden's approvals specifically. Not too many big surprises, but some interesting notes: - Biden has lost the largest approval rating among voters 18-29 and black voters compared to 2020. - These are generally progressive-leaning groups, however his deterioration is almost all with 18-29 and black voters who identify as moderate. His decline among voters who identify as left of center has been much smaller. - There is a huge variance in polling subsamples for 18-29 voters. Biden is either going to do slightly better than he did in 2020, about the same, or do 23 points worse than he did in 2020 among voters 18-29. Multiple polls they consider credible have shown all of those results. - Trump has a similar situation with black and Hispanic voters. His numbers for them are all over the map. Trump will either do about the same as he did in 2020, slightly better than he did in 2020, or "the biggest single-election shift & the strongest performance for a GOP presidential candidate among Hispanics in 60+ years." Several polls have shown all three results. - Biden has seen a dramatic drop in support among independents compared to 2020 and that is consistent across all major polls. - One weird area of positive change for Biden is that he is actually slightly leading among voters 65+ and that is the one demographic he is doing noticeably better with compared to 2020. - The two biggest policy issues hurting Biden are inflation (specifically grocery store prices) and immigration. Nothing else comes close. - The one single personal issue that is hurting Biden the most is age. - The two biggest issues boosting Biden are Abortion and fear of Trump/defending democracy. - Third party candidates seem to be taking votes from Trump and Biden almost equally (with slightly more coming from Biden). This indicates that there are protest votes/people dissatisfied with both candidates. - In a twist from historical norms, Biden does much better among likely voters than registered voters. This implies that higher turnout may actually be good for Trump and lower turnout good for Biden. This is likely the result of higher education voters (who are much more likely to vote) drifting towards Democrats over the last 10 years and white people with no degree (who are much less likely to vote) drifting towards Republicans over the last 10 years. - RFK Jr. is still pulling low double digits in most polls. It seems incredibly unlikely he will get that much in the actual election, especially since he isn't even trying to get on the ballot in a lot of states. - Another big uncertainty is that Biden has a huge advantage among likely voters who say they dislike both candidates. It's not clear how that will play out in the final results. - Another huge uncertainty is how voters say they will respond if Trump is convicted of a felony. His total vote count would plummet by about 7% according to some polls. tl;dr: Biden is objectively polling worse now than he was in 2020. However, the election results have huge potential variances from third party voters, wide ranges in demographic subsamples, and uncertain turnout models. Which polls are more accurate at predicting 18-29, Hispanic, and black voter choices, what happens with Trump's criminal trials, if there are any big changes in opinion or salience of inflation/immigration/abortion issues before November, and how voters who claim they are voting for a third party candidate or say they dislike both candidates end up voting will determine which polls were more accurate. Either way, a moderately big victory by either candidate is a real possibility, but a very close race is the most likely outcome (according to polling right now). There is a tremendous degree of uncertainty in the polling, though. 2020 had a significantly narrower band of potential results and fewer large outliers than 2024 - despite the ongoing pandemic. So, the numerous potential variables and sampling models among different pollsters are producing a wide range of results. https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1755239213375590454 https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1755240786696814695 https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1755241650643697829 https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1755241804205535710 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Feb 7, 2024 |
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Feb 7, 2024 16:17
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The head of data science and polling for Global Strategy Groups posted a long breakdown of all of their data and publicly available polling data about the 2024 election and Biden's approvals specifically. So this is a lot of words to say "We've looked at the numbers, and who fuckin' knows? Ask again later."
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Feb 7, 2024 16:26
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Bugsy posted:He and Burkman have been busy accosting people is the worst To Catch a Predator ripoff ever. With the supposed predator being there to meet a 36 year old woman, and knowing that he was going to meet a 36 year old woman. No clue how they aren't in a Maryland jail for surrounding this guy with drawn pistols. Brandishing isn't actually a crime in Maryland, though you could likely nail him on two party consent for recording in a non public place, likely an element of this lawsuit. He continues to be a comical crime elemental.
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Feb 7, 2024 16:32
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Inglonias posted:So this is a lot of words to say "We've looked at the numbers, and who fuckin' knows? Ask again later." Pretty much. There's a ton of variables and huge ranges within those variables. The only things we can say generally for certain are: - Most Americans hate Trump and Biden. - Americans are very mad about grocery store prices and immigration. - There is a huge variance in how pollsters think different subsamples of Americans feel and nobody can really say why or be sure. - Trump's legal situation and what people who claim they will vote third-party will do on election day are major unknowns that could have big impacts on the race.
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Feb 7, 2024 16:37
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IMO I think odds are higher that this is a lower turnout election than 2020 than third party candidates make a major difference
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Feb 7, 2024 16:46
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One thing that I wish we could follow up on is why 18-29 year olds and black voters who identify as moderate are turned off by Biden, but left-wing 18-29 year olds and black voters are much less so. It is always kind of assumed that the dissatisfaction was coming from the more left-wing populations of those groups. This could be an issue of definition too. i.e. the old problem where people with hugely extreme views, but a few of them are on the left and a few are on the right ("I want to nationalize the pharmaceutical industry and build the wall.") consider themselves moderate rather than the "traditional" idea of what a moderate is and get mixed together with other "moderates" who actually have hugely different views. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 16:56 on Feb 7, 2024 |
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Feb 7, 2024 16:54
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