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Larry Hogan will turn around and vote with Trump (if president) 100/100 times. You cannot trust a word this dude says. He was completely held on a leash by a Democratic supermajority and he still let his craziness shine through now and again. There is no "good guy hogan," gently caress larry hogan.
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Feb 9, 2024 22:42
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Shammypants posted:Larry Hogan will turn around and vote with Trump (if president) 100/100 times. You cannot trust a word this dude says. He was completely held on a leash by a Democratic supermajority and he still let his craziness shine through now and again. There is no "good guy hogan," gently caress larry hogan. If you read the post, they were making fun of the fact that his policy page was lorem ipsum, aka "pain itself".
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Feb 9, 2024 22:52
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Killer robot posted:He's chasing the Latin vote. Dum vivere nova Hispania.
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Feb 9, 2024 23:21
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Kchama posted:If you read the post, they were making fun of the fact that his policy page was lorem ipsum, aka "pain itself". Yes, but I wanted to say gently caress larry hogan because it makes me feel good.
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Feb 9, 2024 23:24
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sleep with the vicious posted:George w bush is 4 years younger than biden and was president 25 years ago do you have substantial proof of this or are you just parroting a right-wing talking point also it's weird that you're saying that bush's mannerisms were part of his strategy because it's implying that biden's mannerisms aren't. or are you saying that bush's mistakes don't count for ??? reasons but biden's do for different ??? reasons (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 9, 2024 23:28
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World Famous W posted:stocks don't feed people's family, fuel their cars, or pay their rent Completely agreed - but this is a good talking point because the reporting on a good market drives sentiment to some degree, as does a cratering market. small butter fucked around with this message at 01:20 on Feb 10, 2024 |
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Feb 9, 2024 23:32
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Kith posted:do you have substantial proof of this or are you just parroting a right-wing talking point Biden's mannerisms ARE part of his strategy but so was Bush's. He adopted the twang after running for office when he got feedback that he sounded too intellectual. Go back and watch his early political debates. His entire ranch was just a skit. I wouldn't say he was dumb though, just intellectually lazy.
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Feb 10, 2024 01:37
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Kith posted:do you have substantial proof of this or are you just parroting a right-wing talking point I predict this line of questioning will be a big winner when responding to people's sincere concerns of an 81 year old running for pesident
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Feb 10, 2024 01:52
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The entire game in the general is energizing the voters. As we can see in this thread, everybody is super jazzed about voting for an ancient lich, while Trump voters are excited for their fascist dreams to come to fruition.
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Feb 10, 2024 02:01
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Jaxyon posted:Biden's mannerisms ARE part of his strategy but so was Bush's. That was always a lazy take though. GWB isn't the first or last person raised in the south who learned to code switch into generic American accents for business school/work where a Southern accent knocks ten points off your apparent IQ, entered Southern politics where it makes you seem more sincere instead, and switched back. Like sure he was born in NE but he was living in West Texas before he was out of diapers and spent his formative years there.
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Feb 10, 2024 02:01
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Kith posted:do you have substantial proof of this or are you just parroting a right-wing talking point The difference between dumb and senile is senility progresses. That’s why it’s more of a liability. The fact Biden has been doing this forever helps him a lot more than if he’d just started in the last couple years for sure. Killer robot posted:That was always a lazy take though. GWB isn't the first or last person raised in the south who learned to code switch into generic American accents for business school/work where a Southern accent knocks ten points off your apparent IQ, entered Southern politics where it makes you seem more sincere instead, and switched back. Like sure he was born in NE but he was living in West Texas before he was out of diapers and spent his formative years there. Absolutely. I’m from WV. I had to unlearn my accent to be taken seriously when I moved. If you’re going into media there are even classes you take to lose it. I slip back into it when visiting family or even talking on the phone with them Edit Jaxyon posted:The entire game in the general is energizing the voters. Eh people are still pretty jazzed to vote against Trump again.
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Feb 10, 2024 02:06
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Jaxyon posted:The entire game in the general is energizing the voters. Yeah, I mean the polling people posted the other day made it clear that while the left is still pretty enthusiastic to turn out against Trump, moderate and independent Biden 2020 voters are flagging. Do you think there's anything specific that can be done to shore up his right, since that's where the problem is? Personally I'd rather Democrats not return to the years of moving right to chase them, but it makes a tricky question.
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Feb 10, 2024 02:13
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Sephyr posted:I'm extrapolating from Brazilian politics here, which I have had a closer look into from my time as a journo. People also forget that the biggest advantage that Biden had in 2020 was that COVID kept him off a physical campaign trail. He was able to stay at home while his handlers were able to pick and choose his spots and minimize the biggest weakness to the campaign, which was the candidate himself. Biden won't have that advantage this time around and is four years older, not to mention that the presidency ages a person in dog years. I get that people don't want to be arzying for an entire year, but this head in the sand attitude people have adopted isn't doing any favors. The polling has been consistently in Trump's favor. The actual economy is divorced from the "stonk go up econ be good" metric that gets reported on and people aren't going to believe that things are going well when they can barely afford food and can't afford rent. The trials aren't going to matter given that Trump has eternally lived under "heads I win tails you lose" rules; if anything they'll end up helping him as they progress and now that the GOP base has decided that Jan 6th was a good thing he'll start openly campaigning on what should have been his biggest detriment.
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Feb 10, 2024 02:54
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Killer robot posted:Yeah, I mean the polling people posted the other day made it clear that while the left is still pretty enthusiastic to turn out against Trump, moderate and independent Biden 2020 voters are flagging. Do you think there's anything specific that can be done to shore up his right, since that's where the problem is? Personally I'd rather Democrats not return to the years of moving right to chase them, but it makes a tricky question. Part of it is going to happen naturally as everyone gets reacquainted with Trump. A month ago fewer than 50% of Democrats thought Trump would end up being the nominee.
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Feb 10, 2024 02:58
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For me it's hard to form much of an opinion at all when on one hand you have polling that frequently has crosstabs suggesting, like, generational voter realignment in traditionally D-voting groups towards R, but then special elections happen and D candidates often outperform and don't really show any of that. Like I get November will be it's own thing but so far it's difficult to match all this up with the actual hard results we've had in recent months/years.
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Feb 10, 2024 03:13
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The current state of polling is not great or encouraging. But it is very early and there are many factors that should work in Biden’s favor including positive impact of an improving economy on people’s personal situations over time, and full recognition that the alternative to Biden is Trump, who was turned out in favor of Biden.
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Feb 10, 2024 03:21
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I have a question for anyone mentioning the polls. Maybe I'm missing something, but is there any evidence that polls this far out have any predictive value? I thought that it's been settled that polls only start to get somewhat predictive at the 200-day mark, meaning anything right now is a coin flip. What I am seeing are Democrats overperforming and Republicans underperforming. THIS has traditionally been predictive of the subsequent election, as much as polls two weeks before the election. What's really "head in the sand" are comments like "the trials won't matter." Trump has 91 felony charges against him. He will have to put up hundreds of millions of dollars into escrow soon to pay for his fraud and rape that's he's already been convicted of. Saying that he's just been getting away with it and will continue to do so misses like the past 4 years. Trump lost in 2020, got impeached twice, was ordered to pay $92m at this point with another $300m-$500m coming up, and he has 4 felony indictments against him. His candidates keep losing hard. Republicans are a loving mess all due to Trump. How are those not repercussions?
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Feb 10, 2024 03:31
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I don’t understand how any of this is an issue at all, this is the reason why we have vice presidents. There’s no way that the machinery will support an arguable senile man for ‘the most powerful entity on the planet’ when we could trivially switch to the backup and move on. This isn’t an issue where we have to support a dead end bloodline cause we are operating under a monarchy, this shouldn’t even be a problem.
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Feb 10, 2024 04:33
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Because Biden is clearly not actually senile so there is no reason to remove him from office, and Democratic voters want Biden as the nominee.
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Feb 10, 2024 04:50
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celadon posted:I don’t understand how any of this is an issue at all, this is the reason why we have vice presidents. There’s no way that the machinery will support an arguable senile man for ‘the most powerful entity on the planet’ when we could trivially switch to the backup and move on. This isn’t an issue where we have to support a dead end bloodline cause we are operating under a monarchy, this shouldn’t even be a problem. I would literally rather have a senile-to-the-point-of-God-Emperor-ruling-in-undeath-like-40k Biden in office while the wheels of rest of the bureaucratic state keep spinning than have to endure a Kamala *awkward, inappropriate laugh* Harris Presidency
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Feb 10, 2024 04:55
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Honestly hope the Best for Biden, since I've got family in the states and he's probably the best they've got. But mixing up the Egyptian and Mexican president Is a big no-no as far as we're concerned. Best case scenario he's a retard. Worst case he's a racist. Either way as long as you don't invade we don't give a gently caress either way.
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Feb 10, 2024 04:56
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Can we swap VPs but keep the incumbent? Is that an option? Has that happened before? Apropos of nothing, I’m 35.
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Feb 10, 2024 04:57
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Jaxyon posted:Biden's mannerisms ARE part of his strategy but so was Bush's. i'm aware Olga Gurlukovich posted:I predict this line of questioning will be a big winner when responding to people's sincere concerns of an 81 year old running for pesident  Fork of Unknown Origins posted:The difference between dumb and senile is senility progresses. That’s why it’s more of a liability. The fact Biden has been doing this forever helps him a lot more than if he’d just started in the last couple years for sure. yeah that's kinda my point. like no poo poo biden is old and i'm definitely not happy about how old he is but also it hasn't mattered nearly as much as anyone predicted it would and all of the talk about his most recent gaffe is piss in the wind straight out of the right wing media machine. he made a mixup. who gives a poo poo. it happens, it has happened before, and it will happen again. it doesn't change the fact that he's been a competent leader who has accomplished a shocking amount of good things and that trend will likely continue.
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Feb 10, 2024 04:58
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Xiahou Dun posted:Can we swap VPs but keep the incumbent? Is that an option? Has that happened before?
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Feb 10, 2024 05:00
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It was, funnily enough (your mileage on funny varies) Tricky Dick Nixon who had to act presidential as the vice president when Ike was laying in a hospital. And that sort of made the office of vice president more important, because they can act as the president, but it is rare.
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Feb 10, 2024 05:05
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they want shady posted:But mixing up the Egyptian and Mexican president Is a big no-no as far as we're concerned. Best case scenario he's a retard. Worst case he's a racist. Either way as long as you don't invade we don't give a gently caress either way. There's already been lots of people digging up videos of Trump and others making similar gaffes. If this wasn't a press conference made so Biden could get angry about people questioning his memory, it wouldn't be that big of a deal.
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Feb 10, 2024 05:08
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There has never been a time when Biden was a political candidate that he wasn't also saying stupid poo poo on the regular. He's been known as a gaffe and flub machine for decades.
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Feb 10, 2024 05:12
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Anno posted:For me it's hard to form much of an opinion at all when on one hand you have polling that frequently has crosstabs suggesting, like, generational voter realignment in traditionally D-voting groups towards R, but then special elections happen and D candidates often outperform and don't really show any of that. Like I get November will be it's own thing but so far it's difficult to match all this up with the actual hard results we've had in recent months/years. Midterms and special elections often have different voting patterns from presidential elections. First, the presidential election is much bigger news and draws out a lot of less-engaged voters who wouldn't have turned out for the midterms, let alone the special elections. Second, people's personal opinions of the presidential candidates themselves tends to have more of an impact on the overall national result, Also, people are worried because everyone thought there was no way Trump was going to win in 2016, and polling largely suggested Trump was going to lose in 2016, and then look what happened. Personally, I'm of the opinion that politics in the US have gotten to be such an unprecedented chaotic mess that no one is capable of predicting them reliably, and anyone who says otherwise is fooling themselves. Predicting the outcome of one election based on the outcome of past elections is rather foolhardy in our rapidly-changing political conditions. The polls probably aren't anywhere close to accurate either, but the fact that they're not showing a massive voter rejection of Trump suggests that we can't simply write Trump off. Is Trump doomed in 2024? Is Biden doomed in 2024? The honest answer is that we really don't know. Both candidates have all sorts of bad poo poo about them that voters seem to think might be important, but there's really no telling how that'll all shake out.
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Feb 10, 2024 05:13
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Eric Cantonese posted:There's already been lots of people digging up videos of Trump and others making similar gaffes. If this wasn't a press conference made so Biden could get angry about people questioning his memory, it wouldn't be that big of a deal. Hell no need to dig up videos of Trump, he does that poo poo every day https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1756116291541258242
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Feb 10, 2024 05:55
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Youth Decay posted:Hell no need to dig up videos of Trump, he does that poo poo every day Clearly he's saying he would be in a different time zone
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Feb 10, 2024 06:13
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The reason Mexico/Egypt is classic gaffe machine Biden is cuz it's stuttering in action. He has a stutter and loving up words like that is just life. He didn't confuse Egypt and Mexico, he was talking about Egypt and the wrong word came out. A memory fuckup would be talking about the wrong topic entirely, or bringing up the wrong president, and so on. Source: I have a stutter and people confusing this is intensely frustrating. This is not dispositive of Biden having cognitive issues. Just that as evidence this sucks rear end.
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Feb 10, 2024 06:15
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FlamingLiberal posted:It has happened but it's not common, at least not in the modern era. in fairness you said "not common" but like, it's literally going to happen this election cycle with Trump/???
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Feb 10, 2024 06:21
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:The reason Mexico/Egypt is classic gaffe machine Biden is cuz it's stuttering in action. He has a stutter and loving up words like that is just life. He didn't confuse Egypt and Mexico, he was talking about Egypt and the wrong word came out. A memory fuckup would be talking about the wrong topic entirely, or bringing up the wrong president, and so on. it was one hell of a stutter 2 days ago when he name-dropped the French leader who died 25 years ago too, natch https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/second-mixup-week-biden-talks-meeting-dead-european-leaders-rcna137823
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Feb 10, 2024 06:27
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Tatsuta Age posted:it was one hell of a stutter 2 days ago when he name-dropped the French leader who died 25 years ago too, natch Yeah? That’s basically how stuttering works. The harder you work to control it, the more it’s going to make you slip up in other ways. It really sucks rear end, and happens to me a lot. There’s a reason why he’s been making these gaffes for decades.
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Feb 10, 2024 08:46
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Xiahou Dun posted:Can we swap VPs but keep the incumbent? Is that an option? Has that happened before? Sure can, FDR switched Cactus Jack out for Henry A Wallace in '41, then the Dem machinery foisted Truman on him over FDR's objections in '45. Also Nixon ended up with Ford after Spiro Agnew got in trouble for corruption. That was totally unrelated to Watergate. Folks were just criming all over the place. Though that was really the end of it; since Reagan there haven't been any changes midstream.
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Feb 10, 2024 08:49
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spiro fuckin agnew is just a hilarious story-within-a-story of the nixon era crimetimes its amazing to listen to the guy just pop off about poo poo, the "effete corps of impudent snobs" and see in it the DNA of the modern moral superiority doublethink of the conservative everything's there, if you read into his tirades against the national moratorium day. here was the country straight up turning against the vietnam war for being a horrifying inexcusable thing, and he pulled all the cards that seem super familiar by now, from blaming radicals for the unpopularity of his ideals which were actually secretly supported by the ~silent majority~, to blustering about wokeism in education and the whole time he and his were out claiming his was the moral bulwark the country's youtes would have to return to, guy was neck deep in corruption, gets ousted as VP, gets disbarred, has to take a loan from frank sinatra to get by, and transitions to doing shady international consultancy business deals with saddam hussein and nicolae ceausescu like you do
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Feb 10, 2024 09:04
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:The reason Mexico/Egypt is classic gaffe machine Biden is cuz it's stuttering in action. He has a stutter and loving up words like that is just life. He didn't confuse Egypt and Mexico, he was talking about Egypt and the wrong word came out. A memory fuckup would be talking about the wrong topic entirely, or bringing up the wrong president, and so on. The other honestly really funny thing is that Sisi being called the Mexican is a meme on Egyptian twitter because some guy posted a video of himself to protest high prices and hosed up saying Sisi's name There's a real possibility Biden was briefed on this meme as it's spreading among anti-sisi folks in Egypt, and then this info caused the Mexico gaffe
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Feb 10, 2024 09:20
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tucker: why did you decide to invade ukraine putin: the Ethereal Divide had always existed before the creation of the Sixteen Realms. The seven Source Dragons come into being, or have always existed. Through the Source Dragons, the Elemental Powers were formed. The First Realm (the Realm of Oni and Dragons) came into being, or simply had always existed. Ninjago, the Underworld, the Realm of Madness, the Cursed Realm, the Cloud Kingdom, the Realm of the Wyldness, Djinjago, the Departed Realm, the Never-Realm, the Imperium, the Realm of Lee, and five other unknown realms eventually manifest. The Cursed Realm and Djinjago then become sister realms. The monks of Cloud Kingdom then take a role in several of the realms' events, helping guide, though not necessarily controlling, their destiny. At some point in time, the Oni and dragons fight in the first realm, centuries later,[5] the First Spinjitzu Master, a hybrid between dragons and Oni, was born. The First Spinjitzu Master, together with the Firstbourne, the mother of all dragons who can blast all elements from its mouth, create the Dragon Armor and the Dragonbone Blade to end the war between the dragons and the Oni. Legends told that tucker: [continues staring in childlike bafflement for 46 solid minutes]
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Feb 10, 2024 09:37
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A mini-efforpost on the "was the 2020 election close" topic, I know the thread mostly moved on but as I promised in the last one before it got closed  IMO, yes, despite a healthy popular vote and EV margin, it was way too close. Only 3 states needed to be flipped with 1.28% or lower margins, which would be enough to get an EV tie which then would then result in a Trump win. There are of course plenty of factors impacting the final result, including local state party fuckups and what not. But assuming that everything is as it was in 2020, I think that a relatively small event like Biden accidentally kicking a puppy on video, or HIS DOCUMENTS coming out the week of the election, could've swung the results. Let's say something like that happened, and it depressed Dem turnout by 1% on average, with some variation and randomness state to state. Maybe some don't mind puppy kicking as much, or didn't watch the news as much, the weather was different or whatever. I haven't done too much research but it does seem that that it's fairly common to assume an approximately normal distribution for these estimates (https://rafalab.dfci.harvard.edu/dsbook/models.html). So I had a bit of time to mess with this on friday by running some experiments: Wisconsin, with the highest margins of the three states, is more likely than not to stay dem (not surprising considering we're assuming only 1% lower dem turnout):  Overall, most likely result is a loss of Arizona and Georgia for -27EVs, since the margins there are super slim. But if a loss in Wisconsin occurs, at around 30%, then the most likely outcome is a 269 EV tie.  Tying this to current events, imagine if the BIDEN'S GARAGE came out a week or two before the election. There are many other reasons to think that Trump shouldn't get anywhere near a win, but if things were somehow close enough because chuds are gonna chud, that's not something I'd want to see. Thanks for reading my TEDx.
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Feb 10, 2024 10:03
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The House was controlled by the Democrats in 2020, so Biden would’ve won on the tiebreaker. Other than that, fine work. e: disregard this post, I didn’t know they House voted en bloc. Edward Mass fucked around with this message at 10:14 on Feb 10, 2024 |
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Feb 10, 2024 10:10
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