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A Meatslab posted:Legit, what is this sentiment based on? I'm also trans and terrified Trump even having a sneeze of a chance in the general. I actually think Biden still has a better chance of winning overall, just because enough of the Democratic coalition is so terrified of another Trump victory that they'll "come home" over the coming months. But it's gonna be close. His approval rating is high-30's, and his numbers on handling the economy are suffering pretty badly. That second point may change over the next few months, but it's not something I'd necessarily assume. In the meantime, polls seem to indicate that he's alienating important voting blocs (young voters, voters of color, etc), trailing in key swing states, and is currently losing in national polls. e: According to a recent Carnegie Endowment survey, black voters are less likely than white voters to share Biden's views regarding Palestine: quote:For instance, 95 percent of Black Americans rejected the idea of showing “unwavering support” for Israel, compared to 77 percent of White Americans. Furthermore, 43 percent of Black Americans supported some form of ceasefire, with 28 percent reporting that the United States should encourage an immediate ceasefire and 15 percent favoring a temporary ceasefire so that humanitarian aid could flow into Gaza. For comparison, 35 percent of White Americans supported some form of a ceasefire. (The racial differences over support of a ceasefire and military action has been noted in other polling.) Lastly, 24 percent of Black Americans believed the United States should not be involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, compared to 19 percent of White Americans. Kalit posted:I think you overestimate how many people would even agree with your opinion of Biden being a “hardline Zionist” and has “anti-immigration” stances…. Well, then you're misreading me badly. I'm not saying that a huge amount of voters agree with me on these issues. I'm saying that this is going to be an incredibly close race in key swing states, and Biden's stances are alienating voter blocs that he can't afford to lose in those states. Majorian fucked around with this message at 20:34 on Feb 11, 2024 |
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Feb 11, 2024 20:28
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A Meatslab posted:Legit, what is this sentiment based on? I'm also trans and terrified Trump even having a sneeze of a chance in the general. Because despite all of that, Trump is still leading Biden in literally all of the swing states based on polling, and is even winning national polls by a little. It's still early, polls can be wrong, and things can change, but Biden is historically unpopular because people are still pissed off about inflation and because he's incredibly old. There is not much more that can be done about inflation and the economy (which has slowly gotten better, and can still improve as the year goes by) but the age issue is definitely not going to go away. At least switching to a younger candidate could fix that, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen. We're stuck with Biden, and it's a huge risk considering the current situation and what's at stake. e: immigration is also a huge issue according to polling, and because the Dems have just sat on their hands and allowed Republicans to dominate the narrative every step of the way, I don't have high hopes that they'll be able to win back the American people on this issue.
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Feb 11, 2024 20:32
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Majorian posted:Well, then you're misreading me badly. I'm not saying that a huge amount of voters agree with me on these issues. I'm saying that this is going to be an incredibly close race in key swing states, and Biden's stances are alienating voter blocs that he can't afford to lose in those states. You phrased it as if these policies are the only way he could gain voters. There are voters he will gain for a lot of other reasons, regardless of their views on Israel/Palestine and immigration Kalit fucked around with this message at 20:38 on Feb 11, 2024 |
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Feb 11, 2024 20:36
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Kalit posted:You phrased it as if these policies are the only way he could gain voters. I didn't do anything of the sort. I've said nothing about what he can do to gain voters. I asked what the strategy is for gaining voters that he's losing due to these stances. I'm still waiting for an answer to the question.. quote:There’s a lot of of people he will gain for a lot of other reasons, even if they’re not pro-Zionist or anti-immigration Great, who? How is he going to win them in enough numbers to cover for young and POC voters he loses in key states?
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Feb 11, 2024 20:37
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Main Paineframe posted:60% of liberals think Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, but only 27% think there should be an immediate ceasefire, while 42% think the war has to end with the destruction of Hamas in some form or fashion. There's got to be a fair chunk of people who think it's a genocide but that there shouldn't be a ceasefire. Though rather than self-identified liberals, I was personally looking at Dem/Biden voters and 18-29 groups, both of which are admittedly slightly less sure that it's a genocide. Holy poo poo that avatar someone gave you. That person should be permabanned.
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Feb 11, 2024 20:40
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Majorian posted:I didn't do anything of the sort. I've said nothing about what he can do to gain voters. I asked what the strategy is for gaining voters that he's losing due to these stances. I'm still waiting for an answer to the question.. I already listed his actual accomplishments in a previous post of mine: Kalit posted:
That’s a lot of people affected, with large swathes across the political spectrum. I would be shocked if there’s more people who voted for him in 2020, despite him already being pro-Israel, refusing to vote for him in 2024 than people who got positively impacted and decide to vote for him in 2024 for the first time Kalit fucked around with this message at 20:43 on Feb 11, 2024 |
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Feb 11, 2024 20:41
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Kalit posted:I already listed his actual accomplishments in a previous post of mine: Do you have evidence that those accomplishments will drive voters to the polls? Is he even running on these accomplishments? So far he doesn't seem to be.
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Feb 11, 2024 20:43
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Majorian posted:Do you have evidence that those accomplishments will drive voters to the polls? Do you have evidence that he's even planning on running on these accomplishments? So far he doesn't seem to be. Do you have evidence that there’s enough people to shift an election who won’t vote for him in 2024 who did in 2020 because of his current actions regarding Israel? Of course neither of us can definitively prove either, so I don’t know why you’re trying to demand “evidence” that is impossible to produce. My point is a lot more non-2020 Biden voters are positively impacted by his accomplishments than people who voted for him on 2020 who might not vote for him this year solely on this one issue…
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Feb 11, 2024 20:48
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Majorian posted:Do you have evidence that those accomplishments will drive voters to the polls? Is he even running on these accomplishments? So far he doesn't seem to be. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/02/04/remarks-by-president-biden-at-a-campaign-event-las-vegas-nv/ He hits on all of these issues in his stump speech here and I assume it's pretty repetitive elsewhere as they usually are. Main Paineframe posted:60% of liberals think Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, but only 27% think there should be an immediate ceasefire, while 42% think the war has to end with the destruction of Hamas in some form or fashion. There's got to be a fair chunk of people who think it's a genocide but that there shouldn't be a ceasefire. Though rather than self-identified liberals, I was personally looking at Dem/Biden voters and 18-29 groups, both of which are admittedly slightly less sure that it's a genocide. What the gently caress the politoon is already pretty distasteful as an av buy but with that text it's such blatant antisemitic confounding of Israeli crimes and Judaism. Kagrenak fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Feb 11, 2024 |
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Feb 11, 2024 20:51
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Kalit posted:Do you have evidence that there’s enough people to shift an election who won’t vote for him in 2024 who did in 2020 because of his current actions regarding Israel? I've already posted evidence that Biden's losing voters in key swing states, and those voters are from demographics more likely to oppose his policy towards Israel. quote:Of course neither of us can definitively prove either, so I don’t know why you’re trying to demand “evidence” that is impossible to produce. My point is a lot more non-2020 Biden voters are positively impacted by his accomplishments than people who voted for him on 2020 who might not vote for him this year solely on this one issue… I actually brought up two issues (Israel/Palestine and immigration). Polls show him lagging in key swing states, and they also show that he's losing support among important demographics who do not support his policies on those issues. I'm not asking you to provide proof that Biden's accomplishments that you cited will be enough to carry the day for him; I'm asking what you think the strategy is for winning over enough voters to at least cover for those he is currently losing. Is it "run hard on those accomplishments and pray that the economy improves enough for enough people to really feel it"? Because that's a valid answer, but it doesn't exactly inspire confidence in Biden's chances IMO. Kagrenak posted:https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/02/04/remarks-by-president-biden-at-a-campaign-event-las-vegas-nv/ I think stump speeches might not be the best way for him to communicate to his voter base, given his recent spate of bizarre gaffes. (mixing up Egypt and Mexico, etc) Those gaffes tend to become the story, not whatever he's promising in those speeches. Majorian fucked around with this message at 20:58 on Feb 11, 2024 |
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Feb 11, 2024 20:54
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Queering Wheel posted:So if I'm trans and I can't afford to leave the country or move to a blue state, should I just get ready to die now? Because if something doesn't change soon, it's looking like Biden is going to lose, which means that Trump will be able to enact Project 2025 and kill me and my entire community. I really don't see a way out of this. Should I just run to a blue state anyway even if I have no job lined up, or don't have very much money? (not that blue states are going to be much safer either) Never get ready to die. There's never a reason to capitulate to someone coming after your community, and if they want you dead, it should be their problem, not yours. The future is uncertain, but your own dignity is certain, and you should not give it up pre-emptively. We are not alone in these situations - you mentioned your entire community, and the trans community has incredibly strong bonds because of their shared struggle. You are not alone even besides that - trans people came before you and people wanted to wipe them out, but trans people persevered, and you are still here. Yes, you'd be safer in a blue state. But if you are worried that it still wouldn't be safe enough, and that a fight is inevitable, then it's better to focus on what you can control: Your community, your loved ones, your dignity, and your self-respect. (Also, the future is really uncertain, things are way to in flux to be like "Yeah, Trump is going to win." You should still get ready to fight for your dignity all the time, though!)
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Feb 11, 2024 20:55
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Majorian posted:Do you have evidence that those accomplishments will drive voters to the polls? Is he even running on these accomplishments? So far he doesn't seem to be. Honest question, have you watched a single one of his speeches, what information are you using to determine what he is running on? Do you look at any news pertaining to Biden that is outside your curated news bubble?
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Feb 11, 2024 20:58
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socialsecurity posted:Honest question, have you watched a single one of his speeches, what information are you using to determine what he is running on? Do you look at any news pertaining to Biden that is outside your curated news bubble? I have watched his speeches, yes. I occasionally check mainstream media TV outlets, podcasts, newspapers, etc. The story coming out of Biden's stump speeches has been, "He's garbling his words horrifically and seems way too old and senile to run," not, "He's promising X, Y, and Z." That's not entirely his fault, of course; the media is going to choose what it wants to make the big story of the day. But I think the lesson here is, if he wants to communicate his accomplishments and promise more and better improvements to quality of life, stump speeches might not be the way to do it.
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Feb 11, 2024 21:00
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Majorian posted:II think stump speeches might not be the best way for him to communicate to his voter base, given his recent spate of bizarre gaffes. (mixing up Egypt and Mexico, etc) Those gaffes tend to become the story, not whatever he's promising in those speeches. You're asking if he's campaigning on it, not if people are covering it extensively, don't move the goalposts. I'm sure he's also buying ads about it and doing interviews about it but I try to insulate myself from ads. Majorian posted:I have watched his speeches, yes. I occasionally check mainstream media TV outlets, podcasts, newspapers, etc. The story coming out of Biden's stump speeches has been, "He's garbling his words horrifically and seems way too old and senile to run," not, "He's promising X, Y, and Z." Him being a lovely candidate and getting accordingly lovely coverage is different than him not running on his accomplishments. You're shifting the focus.
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Feb 11, 2024 21:00
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Majorian posted:I have watched his speeches, yes. I occasionally check mainstream media TV outlets, podcasts, newspapers, etc. The story coming out of Biden's stump speeches has been, "He's garbling his words horrifically and seems way too old and senile to run," not, "He's promising X, Y, and Z." That's not entirely his fault, of course; the media is going to choose what it wants to make the big story of the day. But I think the lesson here is, if he wants to communicate his accomplishments and promise more and better improvements to quality of life, stump speeches might not be the way to do it. So he mentions his accomplishments in his speeches and ads, if that's not what he is running on what do you think he is running on?
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Feb 11, 2024 21:02
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Kagrenak posted:You're asking if he's campaigning on it, not if people are covering it extensively, don't move the goalposts. I'm sure he's also buying ads about it and doing interviews about it but I try to insulate myself from ads. My point is, there are other ways for him to claim credit for his accomplishments and promise more, better accomplishments in the future. If he's just relying on stump speeches to get that message across, then it doesn't seem like he's trying very hard. I'm not as sure as you are that he's buying ads extolling his accomplishments. socialsecurity posted:So he mentions his accomplishments in his speeches and ads, if that's not what he is running on what do you think he is running on? Which ads? I don't think it's been established that he's mentioned them in his ads.
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Feb 11, 2024 21:06
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Equating the lovely, unjust oppression trans people experience in the US to the literal massacre of tens of thousands of innocent people in Gaza in order to shame people into voting for a candidate actively supporting that massacre is not a good look IMO. It's really sad to me that people I probably agree with on 99% of topics are having to resort to these sorts of rhetorical moves. And I don't mean sad in a condescending way, it actually is depressing- it just sucks so bad that this is the position Biden has put us in. Makes me hate him even more.
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Feb 11, 2024 21:07
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Biden's campaign website doesn't even have an issues page, so you pretty much have to hunt down YouTube videos of ads he's running in swing states or sit through hours of him struggling to read a teleprompter to figure out what his priorities are.
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Feb 11, 2024 21:08
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https://apnews.com/article/clyburn-biden-super-pac-south-carolina-9231cb5f0a381d89c9b31e882f294aa6quote:In an ad from Unite the Country, shared ahead of its release with The Associated Press, Clyburn ticks through what he says are major Biden accomplishments, saying the president “has eliminated $137 billion in student loan debt” and “capped insulin costs for seniors at $35 a month.” here, about 5 seconds of googling yielded an ad about biden's accomplishments, i'm assuming this will end whatever tedious argument has lasted for more than a page christ, i remember when i would come to this subforum to learn things, not scroll past two groups trying to score points off each other
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Feb 11, 2024 21:13
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:Equating the lovely, unjust oppression trans people experience in the US to the literal massacre of tens of thousands of innocent people in Gaza in order to shame people into voting for a candidate actively supporting that massacre is not a good look IMO. It's not equating, it's pointing out something which would become worse under one candidate and not under another. The genocide support is a given in this one. If only throwing us under the bus in this election would save them, I'd do that too and fight in different ways here instead, but it won't.
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Feb 11, 2024 21:16
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Majorian posted:I've already posted evidence that Biden's losing voters in key swing states, and those voters are from demographics more likely to oppose his policy towards Israel. What evidence have you posted that shows Biden has lost support due to not being far enough left on these positions among a specific demographic who did vote for him in 2020? You posted a couple links of Biden maybe losing voters to Trump, so that’s definitely not because he’s too pro-Zionist/anti-immigration. And you posted a link about Black Americans not showing Biden’s exact views on a ceasefire in Palestine, but nothing about not voting for him solely based on that. None of these show evidence even close to your claim
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Feb 11, 2024 21:17
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:https://apnews.com/article/clyburn-biden-super-pac-south-carolina-9231cb5f0a381d89c9b31e882f294aa6 Thanks for posting that, but it's still just a single ad from the South Carolina primary. It features Jim Clyburn, a rep who does not have nearly the amount of pull outside of South Carolina as he does in it. It's not up on Biden's Youtube page at least as far as I can see. I don't see much reason to believe that this is going to be his campaign's strategy nationally going forward. What I do see on his Youtube page are a couple of ads about abortion (which is good, he should be running on that), an ad on how Trump is a threat to democracy, two ads bragging about him visiting Ukraine when it was an active war zone, and an 8-minute snippet of a conversation with a black father and son in SC. That last one, at least, gives him a couple of opportunities to brag about his accomplishments, but it's an 8-minute convo, not an ad. Kalit posted:What evidence have you posted that shows Biden has lost support due to not being far enough left on these positions among a specific demographic who did vote for him in 2020? I haven't made that claim. I've asked a question that has yet to be answered: what is Team Biden's plan for winning over enough voters to cover for the votes he's losing among young and POC voters in key swing states? Majorian fucked around with this message at 21:28 on Feb 11, 2024 |
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Feb 11, 2024 21:22
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hey majorian, you should come post in the dadchat thread, for old times sake
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Feb 11, 2024 21:24
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It's "bragging" when it doesn't support your goalpost moving
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Feb 11, 2024 21:25
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People ITT are acting like it's late August and not the front half of February. There's little reason for Biden - or any incumbent presumed to get the nomination - to be running a full-scale campaign right now. It'll all be forgotten by the time the general rolls around, he's far better off trying to tackle The Issues so that the country is in a better situation and he has more to point to. On Gaza, we're all deeply disgusted by it and I don't blame anyone who abjures a Biden or Dem vote over it; it'll certainly cost him votes, and potentially enough to lose one or more states. Maybe even enough to lose him the election. But that doesn't mean any other course of action would be better, because he may well lose a lot more if he had done otherwise. This is a damning indictment of the political system and public, but it's much more difficult to credit it as laying the foundations for corncobbing himself in November. The Palestinian/Arab/Muslim blocs in America simply do not have the numbers or resources or platforms that the pro-Israel blocs do, so it's hardly a suicidal political calculation to think keeping AIPAC happy is a higher priority than keeping CAIR happy.
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Feb 11, 2024 21:26
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Ms Adequate posted:but when one side is actually trying to destroy us today and the other side might hypothetically try to do so tomorrow but are either helping us or letting us alone today, well, the choice is pretty loving obvious. this is an interesting post because it's literally the exact same logical thread some of us are using for Biden and Gaza/Middle East. If the threat to trans people happening right now takes precedence over possible future betrayal, then so does the actual genocide being done in Gaza right now.
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Feb 11, 2024 21:26
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FistEnergy posted:this is an interesting post because it's literally the exact same logical thread some of us are using for Biden and Gaza/Middle East. If the threat to trans people happening right now takes precedence over possible future betrayal, then so does the actual genocide being done in Gaza right now. But Trump would make everything Gaza worse so this analogy doesn't make sense.
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Feb 11, 2024 21:28
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FistEnergy posted:this is an interesting post because it's literally the exact same logical thread some of us are using for Biden and Gaza/Middle East. If the threat to trans people happening right now takes precedence over possible future betrayal, then so does the actual genocide being done in Gaza right now. Yes, that is completely fair. I was not intending to say "Biden better on trans therefore you MUST vote for him", just taking issue with that poster's apparent belief that Biden simply is not better on trans issues; if it came across that way, my bad!
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Feb 11, 2024 21:28
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:hey majorian, you should come post in the dadchat thread, for old times sake Free Avshalom and we'll talk. Riptor posted:It's "bragging" when it doesn't support your goalpost moving Call it whatever you want; I don't think running on Ukraine is something that's going to help his chances of being reelected.
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Feb 11, 2024 21:30
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FistEnergy posted:this is an interesting post because it's literally the exact same logical thread some of us are using for Biden and Gaza/Middle East. If the threat to trans people happening right now takes precedence over possible future betrayal, then so does the actual genocide being done in Gaza right now. Saying that Trump will be an ardent supporter of Israel as they continue their genocide of the Palestinians is a hypothetical issue is like saying the Sun will rise is a hypothetical. It takes ignoring all available evidence and prior experience. Given that's literally what he did while in office and has promised to do in new and disturbing ways since Oct 7!
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Feb 11, 2024 21:31
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FistEnergy posted:this is an interesting post because it's literally the exact same logical thread some of us are using for Biden and Gaza/Middle East. If the threat to trans people happening right now takes precedence over possible future betrayal, then so does the actual genocide being done in Gaza right now. Ah yes, surely Donald “We’ll drown Gaza in Palestinian blood!” Trump will decrease the genocide in Gaza.
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Feb 11, 2024 21:34
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socialsecurity posted:But Trump would make everything Gaza worse so this analogy doesn't make sense. Kchama posted:Ah yes, surely Donald “We’ll drown Gaza in Palestinian blood!” Trump will decrease the genocide in Gaza. Trump could be worse than Biden on Gaza, but if you're going to make the affirmative claim like this, it would be great if you'd explain why you believe this and what makes you so certain of it. Remember, we're talking about him being worse than Biden, not just "not better than Biden."
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Feb 11, 2024 21:35
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Ms Adequate posted:On Gaza, we're all deeply disgusted by it and I don't blame anyone who abjures a Biden or Dem vote over it; it'll certainly cost him votes, and potentially enough to lose one or more states. Maybe even enough to lose him the election. But that doesn't mean any other course of action would be better, because he may well lose a lot more if he had done otherwise. This is a damning indictment of the political system and public, but it's much more difficult to credit it as laying the foundations for corncobbing himself in November. The Palestinian/Arab/Muslim blocs in America simply do not have the numbers or resources or platforms that the pro-Israel blocs do, so it's hardly a suicidal political calculation to think keeping AIPAC happy is a higher priority than keeping CAIR happy. I was actually discussing this with my kids. I pointed out to them that there's already a baseline anti-Muslim/anti-Arab attitude in America (thanks 9/11 and "War on Terror"). Couple that with the baseline sympathetic views of the Jewish diaspora (The Holocaust, history of enslavement, etc.) and you can see why so many Americans just default to "Israel good", or at least "Israel gets the benefit of the doubt". People have been working for decades against this headwind to get average Americans to recognize what's happening in Palestine. It looks like, and I hope that, it's finally paying off.
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Feb 11, 2024 21:36
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Kchama posted:Holy poo poo that avatar someone gave you. That person should be permabanned. Assuming it hasn't changed since you posted this and you're talking about the political cartoon depicting the IDF as Nazis - it's good actually and should be everyone's avatar.
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Feb 11, 2024 21:38
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Kchama posted:Ah yes, surely Donald “We’ll drown Gaza in Palestinian blood!” Trump will decrease the genocide in Gaza. Nope, for the record I think Trump will be just as awful on Gaza. But Trump being president again will free Democrats up to rediscover their consciences again and speak out or act against American complicity. That's why posters keep saying Trump is the harm reduction candidate when it comes to Gaza; it's not a flippant statement. Right now there is no genocide opposition party. With Trump back, that number is free to increase to one. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 11, 2024 21:39
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FistEnergy posted:Nope, for the record I think Trump will be just as awful on Gaza. Weird, a few hours ago you were convinced that the answer wasn't possible to know! Did you suddenly change your mind?
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Feb 11, 2024 21:42
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FistEnergy posted:Nope, for the record I think Trump will be just as awful on Gaza. But Trump being president again will free Democrats up to rediscover their consciences again and speak out or act against American complicity. That's why posters keep saying Trump is the harm reduction candidate when it comes to Gaza; it's not a flippant statement. Right now there is no genocide opposition party. With Trump back, that number is free to increase to one. I'm pretty sure when you elect a guy who openly plans to run a dictatorship the utility of the opposition party goes down a lot, even if you have more ability to influence them at that point.
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Feb 11, 2024 21:43
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Majorian posted:Trump could be worse than Biden on Gaza, but if you're going to make the affirmative claim like this, it would be great if you'd explain why you believe this and what makes you so certain of it. Remember, we're talking about him being worse than Biden, not just "not better than Biden." His quotes on the issue have been put several times per page either you aren't reading the thread or you are trolling.
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Feb 11, 2024 21:44
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If you're mostly deciding based on genocide, another thing to consider is that Republicans support the genocide Russia is carrying out in Ukraine and have policy plans to aid it, while Democrats oppose it and have policy plans to prevent it. That isn't hypothetical either, we know because Republicans won the house in 2022 and implemented their plans to aid Russia's genocide of Ukrainians.
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Feb 11, 2024 21:44
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socialsecurity posted:His quotes on the issue have been put several times per page either you aren't reading the thread or you are trolling. I'm asking what specifically you think he will do to make the situation in Gaza worse, not whether or not his rhetoric is pro-Israel, pro-Zionism, anti-Palestinian, etc. I'm not trolling; I'd like an answer to my question.
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Feb 11, 2024 21:46
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