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Gyges posted:Actually that probably is bad news for Biden. A large part of his appeal is not being Trump when the only other option is Trump. Trump has unparalleled Republican turnout though, even in 2020 after all of his fuckups were fully apparent. He turned out massive numbers of new or at least infrequent voters for a Republican turnout unparalleled in the modern era. To put things in perspective, he got over 30% of eligible voters, not even just registered voters. The only Republicans of the previous 50 years to beat that were Reagan in 1984 and Nixon in 1972. Not their first terms, not any of the three Bush terms, never mind the losers. And he didn't do it by sparking Republican turnout since then, that's for sure. People turned out for him specifically. There's little reason to believe any other Republican candidate can count on those millions of long-time non-voters who turned out for Trump 2020. For that matter, it's a good question as to how many of them will turn out for challenger Trump. In the runup to 2022 a popular theory from critics of the Dems was that Trump had benefited bigly from signing those stimulus checks, and sending contractor money to rural counties for wall construction. Assuming there's meat to that, it should be less of a factor the more distant that gets in the past and the more Republicans run on ending handouts while the Democrats actually did some big infrastructure/manufacturing bills. Even if a lot of people have tried to bury effects of the IRA, people in the industries directly funded by them tend to know better what all that money was earmarked for.
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Feb 14, 2024 10:11
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Gyges posted:Actually that probably is bad news for Biden. A large part of his appeal is not being Trump when the only other option is Trump. That would be bad news for anybody who wants to minimize the chances of being eaten by velociraptors and especially bad news for anybody running on a platform of "I didn't have the government reenact Jurassic Park in order to get revenge on my political enemy."
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Feb 14, 2024 10:42
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koolkal posted:You're missing arguably the single biggest factor: Suozzi held the seat for several terms, leaving it to run for Governor instead I know people here hate Politico for good reasons, but this piece is probably a good sign of what you're going to hear or see in other Congressional races. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook/2024/02/14/suozzi-house-election-new-york-00141362 Mainly, they're going to respond to GOP criticism over migrants with the GOP's own failure to back the compromise border bill. EDIT: Suozzi's a puzzle to me. I went into his background and it looks like he has lost as often as he has won with respect to his other attempts at office. Look at his history with being Nassau County Executive. He was also frequently dealing with multiple primary challengers during his past couple of House terms, so I'm not sure what that says about his incumbency power. Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 15:24 on Feb 14, 2024 |
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Feb 14, 2024 15:18
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Eric Cantonese posted:Nassau County votes started coming in and Suozzi was leading in the first batch. Sucks that he’s a Ritchie Torres level Zionist freak.
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Feb 14, 2024 15:48
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Nucleic Acids posted:Sucks that he’s a Ritchie Torres level Zionist freak. Have you ever been to Long Island? 
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Feb 14, 2024 15:51
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Nucleic Acids posted:Sucks that he’s a Ritchie Torres level Zionist freak. He's from a district in New York City that is mostly made up of Long Island and is 20% Jewish with a huge amount of orthodox. It's kind of amazing that he is only in the top 15% of pro-Israel members of congress instead of #1 with that background.
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Feb 14, 2024 15:51
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https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1757772885110800679 Just wanted to get this out here on the official forums record so we can circle back when she endorses Trump in August.  Trump seems to get that he's not much younger than Biden, it'd be real funny if the GOP was prevented from going after Biden's age because Trump relentlessly pushes against it. zoux fucked around with this message at 16:36 on Feb 14, 2024 |
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Feb 14, 2024 16:08
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Eric Cantonese posted:Have you ever been to Long Island? No, but there’s really nothing that justifies psychotic garbage like this: https://twitter.com/aaronnarraph/status/1757611151326625966
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Feb 14, 2024 16:43
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Nucleic Acids posted:No, but there’s really nothing that justifies psychotic garbage like this: Calling other members of congress "clueless" and saying that most people are pro-Israel are probably not even in the top 10,000 most psychotic things said about Israel and Gaza in the last month.
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Feb 14, 2024 16:46
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Calling other members of congress "clueless" and saying that most people are pro-Israel are probably not even in the top 10,000 most psychotic things said about Israel and Gaza in the last month. It’s all part and parcel of him being a genocide apologist like Torres and Gottheimer.
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Feb 14, 2024 16:50
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Nucleic Acids posted:It’s all part and parcel of him being a genocide apologist like Torres and Gottheimer. Sure, but that random tweet was like the weakest evidence ever. He is very pro-Israel, but calling people clueless, telling people to read up on the issue, and saying most people support Israel are all completely boring anodyne things that are weird to call "psychotic" statements. There's surely much better examples out there. Dude's from Long Island. There's no way he hasn't said something louder and crazier than that.
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Feb 14, 2024 16:53
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Nucleic Acids posted:No, but there’s really nothing that justifies psychotic garbage like this: I'm not in agreement. I just don't think he is necessarily out of sync with his district. EDIT: reading through this Politico interview and I'm not sure what in here is "psychotic." That being said, to the extent you don't like him being strongly pro-Israel, I again am pointing to the district. Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 17:12 on Feb 14, 2024 |
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Feb 14, 2024 17:09
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Eric Cantonese posted:I'm not in agreement. I just don't think he is necessarily out of sync with his district. this. its alot like fetterman. I disagree that he keeps jumping on that train, but it hasnt hurt him popularity wise at all in PA, hell its only helped. Most districts are not dearborn.
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Feb 14, 2024 17:14
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I really do not care about the demographics of his district at all, any level of support for Israel is a moral atrocity.
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Feb 14, 2024 17:18
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Nucleic Acids posted:I really do not care about the demographics of his district at all, any level of support for Israel is a moral atrocity. I think this is a pretty good example of the tension between a deontologist view of politics and an utilitarian one. That district would never elect someone who didn't massively support Israel. In my view, I would rather have a Democrat who is bad on Israel - to my views on politics - but otherwise voted consistently for Democratic policy proposals that I support rather than a Republican who would be just as bad on Israel and would vote consistently for Republican policy proposals. Would you prefer to have a Democrat who is aligns with your views on Israel but loses to a Republican over a Democrat who only disagrees with you on Israel, because those are the two outcomes. There is no world where that district elects the next member of the Squad. So you have to weigh whether you keep the moral high ground, but lose as far as outcomes go, or cede the moral high ground and win on outcomes. For me, I prefer actual outcomes over moral victories https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1757797491829821651 What's the mechanism here? 1 - Taylor Swift is popular 2- ????? 3 - Biden wins zoux fucked around with this message at 17:34 on Feb 14, 2024 |
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Feb 14, 2024 17:26
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Nucleic Acids posted:I really do not care about the demographics of his district at all, any level of support for Israel is a moral atrocity. You're not wrong but there's still a whole lot more convincing to do and holding up of mirrors to the entirety of society instead of just railing against politicians on the topic. Support for Israel is finally dropping, but it's been a majority and bipartisan for longer than I've been alive. Politicians are, kinda by definition, political critters. They're generally going to go where the majority is...current Republican open support of fascism aside.
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Feb 14, 2024 17:26
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Nucleic Acids posted:I really do not care about the demographics of his district at all, any level of support for Israel is a moral atrocity. Look when you use the same level of outrage to discuss the types of statements this guy made as one would use to to describe the bombing of hundreds of Innocents you just look like a fool. It's still a moral failing on his part and makes him a lovely person but to describe his words in these terms does nothing for our cause. How would you describe Ben-Gvir type statements if you're already describing this guy as psychotic and committing moral atrocities? Why should someone listen more attentively when you've so quickly reached the top of the rhetorical ladder?
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Feb 14, 2024 17:37
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You know what, if the government covertly created a global megastar purely to reelect a president (in reality a future president because she's been huge for years) I think they earned it. A government capable of that seems like it'd be pretty competent.
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Feb 14, 2024 17:42
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I think ongoing support for Israel in the face of current reality can safely be called psychotic, but "psychotic" is also just a popular word right now for whatever reason.
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Feb 14, 2024 17:43
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Kagrenak posted:Look when you use the same level of outrage to discuss the types of statements this guy made as one would use to to describe the bombing of hundreds of Innocents you just look like a fool. It's still a moral failing on his part and makes him a lovely person but to describe his words in these terms does nothing for our cause. If that guy supports Ben-Gvir's policies and sends him money and weapons, how are they different?
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Feb 14, 2024 17:44
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I mean at least on the House rep scale, I think it's fair enough to blame the voters instead of fixating on the person they vote in. At the presidential level it's less clear why the candidate isn't ideal but sometimes the lovely part of the democracy are the people doing the voting.
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Feb 14, 2024 17:49
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Strange announcement from the House Intelligence Committee just came out about 20 minutes ago. https://twitter.com/HouseIntel/status/1757805804885823775
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Feb 14, 2024 17:51
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Strange announcement from the House Intelligence Committee just came out about 20 minutes ago. UFOs
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Feb 14, 2024 17:52
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naw. certainly something like TikTok
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Feb 14, 2024 17:54
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Feb 14, 2024 17:55
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Strange announcement from the House Intelligence Committee just came out about 20 minutes ago. It's coming from this pack of assclowns, so the immediate default reaction needs to be "What are they lying about now?" Personally I'm betting on this being OMG BORDER IN CRISIS CARAVANS OF FENTANYL ARE ON THE WAY RIGHT NOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN NOVEMBER BE AFRAID BE VERY AFRAID.
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Feb 14, 2024 17:58
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We need to know about the emerging swifty threat
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Feb 14, 2024 17:59
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bird food bathtub posted:It's coming from this pack of assclowns, so the immediate default reaction needs to be "What are they lying about now?" Going for Bengahzi 2: 2Bens 2Ghazis. But asking Biden to declassify something means there is an intelligence report they are trying to get their hands on?
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Feb 14, 2024 18:01
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Mooseontheloose posted:Going for Bengahzi 2: 2Bens 2Ghazis. I think the intelligence subcommittee would have already been able to see the contents
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Feb 14, 2024 18:05
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1757797491829821651 Remember, these are the same people who think you can become trans or communist by reading a book. So, if Taylor Swift supports Joe Biden, her fans will have received her programming and automatically become Biden voters. Also, the 29% that don't associate with GOP? I can believe that. There's this subset of Swift fans that think she's secretly a lesbian and has been sending coded messages in her albums and media appearances to indicate so. It's so bizarre but totally in line with conspiratorial thinking. Kagrenak posted:I think the intelligence subcommittee would have already been able to see the contents They're in on it, too! 
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Feb 14, 2024 18:06
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:If that guy supports Ben-Gvir's policies and sends him money and weapons, how are they different? Does he support Ben-Gvir's policies? Does he want to send Ben-Gvir money and weapons? To be clear, I'm not just trying to pull some pedantic poo poo here. I'm asking because Ben-Gvir's desired policies are quite a bit worse than what Israel is actually doing right now, and it would legit be big news if non-Republican members of Congress were openly endorsing his stances. Even Biden is going out of his way to prevent Ben-Gvir from receiving money and weapons.
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Feb 14, 2024 18:06
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Whatever it is I'm going to place money on "It's so stupid as to make you groan"
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Feb 14, 2024 18:07
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Mooseontheloose posted:Going for Bengahzi 2: 2Bens 2Ghazis. No, the House and Senate Intel Committees already have whatever clearances they'd need to see whatever this is, they presumably want either a) for stuff to be declassified so they can yell about it in public or b) for stuff not to be declassified so they can yell about the very spooky things they've read but you haven't, just trust us guys.
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Feb 14, 2024 18:09
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RBA Starblade posted:We need to know about the emerging swifty threat Swifty Boat Veterans for Truth. Know the threat.
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Feb 14, 2024 18:09
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Quorum posted:No, the House and Senate Intel Committees already have whatever clearances they'd need to see whatever this is, they presumably want either a) for stuff to be declassified so they can yell about it in public or b) for stuff not to be declassified so they can yell about the very spooky things they've read but you haven't, just trust us guys. The our allies wording is weird here though. If it's mirgrant related, our allies could give less of a poo poo. So, it limits it to me three things: 1. Israel and Hamas - so probably a way to axe humanitarian aid to Gaza? 2. Ukraine - Try to sink the ukraine portion of bills. 3. Taiwan - because wildcard?
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Feb 14, 2024 18:12
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https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770 Well it's something I guess
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Feb 14, 2024 18:22
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Professor Beetus posted:I think ongoing support for Israel in the face of current reality can safely be called psychotic, but "psychotic" is also just a popular word right now for whatever reason. We do not live in sane times.
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Feb 14, 2024 18:23
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Mooseontheloose posted:The our allies wording is weird here though. If it's mirgrant related, our allies could give less of a poo poo. So, it limits it to me three things: Option 4, and where my out of the money bet is: MS13 existing and doing MS13 stuff. Only interesting if there is report-worthy expansion into Spain.
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Feb 14, 2024 18:32
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770
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Feb 14, 2024 18:38
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1757816432077811770 apperently it has to do with something about russia. so who knows. Is turner pro ukraine? because i could see this as an attempt to light a fire under johnsons rear end.
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Feb 14, 2024 18:51
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