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Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Dexo posted:

Rams would be a Stafford succession plan.

Yeah I get the point you are making but it’s not the right move.

The Rams are legitimately close to being serious playoff threats in the NFC with one good offseason. Stafford is really good and McVay is elite.

The rams shouldn’t waste a first rounder on a succession plan, especially in a draft this talent-rich at positions of need.

Canned Sunshine posted:

Yeah, that'd actually make a lot of sense and would probably be to his benefit. Learning under both Stafford and Sean McVay seems like an ideal landing.

It might be an ideal landing for JJ but it’s not an ideal use of resources for the Rams. They should optimize the last years of elite Stafford to try and get a ring.

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Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.
Packers were laughed at for doing something similar, and welp.

It depends on what your evaluation is of JJ if he's worth it or not.

Grozz Nuy
Feb 21, 2008

Welcome to Moonside.

Wecomel to Soonmide.

Moonwel ot cosidme.
Man, people are really ready to crown Love based on a sample size of what, 11 games? They literally turned down his fifth-year option and are going to have to pay him star QB money that much sooner as a result!

Again, unless they already know internally that Stafford is planning to retire after one more year, maybe two, it's ridiculous for their short-term competitiveness for them to take a QB at 19. They should perhaps consider taking a defensive player worth a drat, since they don't currently have any not named Aaron Donald.

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Kalli posted:

Two of the last 3 were hits, you've got Pickett in '22, then Love in '20 and Lamar in '18. If we expand the cutoff to be unkind to ourselves, you add in Mac Jones and Dwayne Haskins as 15th picks in '21 and '19 though.

However before that it's a true wasteland, with a sea of suck until you go back to Flacco in '08.

So really, maybe only the Packers and Ravens should pick QB's in the 2nd half of the first.

Lamar was also a trade up to 32, he was basically a second rounder. He was also hilariously productive in college and fell for stupid reasons, pretty much the exact opposite of JJ who has worse passing stats than Lamar did in college when the big knock against Lamar was that he was a bad passer.

Love spent three years on the bench so even if you count him as a success based on half a year of good production most teams don’t have the luxury of taking a guy in the first to sit for years behind a HoF QB.

Unique situations in both cases and exceptions that prove the rule I’d say.

Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

Grozz Nuy posted:

Man, people are really ready to crown Love based on a sample size of what, 11 games? They literally turned down his fifth-year option and are going to have to pay him star QB money that much sooner as a result!

Again, unless they already know internally that Stafford is planning to retire after one more year, maybe two, it's ridiculous for their short-term competitiveness for them to take a QB at 19. They should perhaps consider taking a defensive player worth a drat, since they don't currently have any not named Aaron Donald.

Love was uh like the 2nd or 3rd best QB in the league during that stretch of 11 games. I'm curious to see what happens once DC's crunch tape on the Packers to counter him, but it's probably pretty safe to at least start prepping the coronation ceremony to crown his rear end.

This pains me so goddamn much to say.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Dexo posted:

Packers were laughed at for doing something similar, and welp.

It depends on what your evaluation is of JJ if he's worth it or not.

Broncos did the same thing with putting Drew Lock behind Flacco, and welp.

I also don’t think JJ is the same type of prospect as Jordan.

I’m also not sure if it was worth it for the packers, just yet. If Jordan continues to be good then yeah it was nice. But if the packers had spent that pick on Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman they probably have deeper playoff success. Maybe even a ring. The loss to the niners in the playoffs was in no small part due to Aaron having lovely wrs.

Normally I’m pretty skeptical of the “one player away” thing and I’d generally take the Jordan Love move in a vacuum with 20/20 hindsight. But for that specific packers team they legitimately were candidates for getting to the Super Bowl for a couple years if they had a bit more help for Aaron.

Also Jordan sat so long that the team didn’t maximize the rookie contract.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Dexo posted:

Love was uh like the 2nd or 3rd best QB in the league during that stretch of 11 games. I'm curious to see what happens once DC's crunch tape on the Packers to counter him, but it's probably pretty safe to at least start prepping the coronation ceremony to crown his rear end.

This pains me so goddamn much to say.

If he’s good for next season then we can conduct a formal coronation ceremony.


Also darn those packers for decades of franchise qbs.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

I want seattle to have a good OL again.

The last time was 2007.

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Dexo posted:

Love was uh like the 2nd or 3rd best QB in the league during that stretch of 11 games. I'm curious to see what happens once DC's crunch tape on the Packers to counter him, but it's probably pretty safe to at least start prepping the coronation ceremony to crown his rear end.

This pains me so goddamn much to say.

Eh, Brock Purdy was the best QB in the league statistically for the entire year but he kinda looked like rear end in the playoffs. I think both Love and Purdy have floors that will keep them in the league and their ceilings are TBD, but it was a weird year overall for QB play and I’m not sure how representative it will end up being for where these guys actually end up ranking.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌

Dejan Bimble posted:

What are your personal weird rules of thumb for scouting/the draft?

I've been really into basketball prospect scouting and I have a handful of principles that are sacred to me, but most don't know about or just don't care about them.

Do you guys have any personal tests you use, or weirdly specific lines you won't cross?

Here's how I do it:

1. Turn on youtube video of the prospect's toughest match up, watch it
2. Look to see if they're faster/stronger/quicker than everyone else around them or if they display great body control
3. Go google what the offensive and defensive scheme was supposed to be
4. Look up injury history

I believe athleticism matters the most and one of the best ways to measure that with an eye test is how well they can contort their body, IE WRs in jump ball situations, DEs taking a corner, LBs doing twitchy diagnosis of run plays, etc. To me that shows how well they mastered distributing their strength across the different systems of the body. To better explain that a sports motion like getting leverage is about transferring power from the lower body into the upper body. Muscle systems work together to produce a better end result. After that you have to see how well they fit into their system because they could either continue that success in the NFL or simply be better if they went to a team that ran something that suited their playstyle better than their college team. After that it's all guess work.

My personal vendetta is against WRs that body catch in traffic, QBs that make impressive but insanely risky throws, RBs that don't just run north, LBs that don't chop step around developing run plays, speed only DLs, or OL that don't have very high blocking intelligence when it comes to identifying the correct block. None of these completely doom a prospect but it does display either poor game knowledge or bad athleticism.

A Sneaker Broker
Feb 14, 2020

Daily Dose of Internet Brain Rot
I wait for RAS scores then compare those scores to their highlights and compare their highlights to other top prospects highlight.

trevorreznik
Apr 22, 2023

Kalli posted:

Two of the last 3 were hits, you've got Pickett in '22, then Love in '20 and Lamar in '18. If we expand the cutoff to be unkind to ourselves, you add in Mac Jones and Dwayne Haskins as 15th picks in '21 and '19 though.

However before that it's a true wasteland, with a sea of suck until you go back to Flacco in '08.

So really, maybe only the Packers and Ravens should pick QB's in the 2nd half of the first.

'09-'16 there just weren't that many great QBs being drafted anyways. Stafford, Luck, and Cam were 3 #1s that panned out, then you had Wilson, Cousins, Carr, Dalton, Tannehill, Goff and Dak as hits scattered all over the place.

Parallax
Jan 14, 2006

Love might end up being great, but was it worth it to draft a successor over a WR or another offensive piece for your MVP QB? Is it possible they could have won another super bowl with Rodgers if they had done so?

Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

Parallax posted:

Love might end up being great, but was it worth it to draft a successor over a WR or another offensive piece for your MVP QB? Is it possible they could have won another super bowl with Rodgers if they had done so?

probably not that defense was obscenely bad, and had a poo poo ton of top draft picks, on it.

Offense wasn't really the problem.

CharlestheHammer
Jun 26, 2011

YOU SAY MY POSTS ARE THE RAVINGS OF THE DUMBEST PERSON ON GOD'S GREEN EARTH BUT YOU YOURSELF ARE READING THEM. CURIOUS!
He was already MVP so would have another offensive piece stopped him from choking?

Probably not

Gareth Gobulcoque
Jan 10, 2008



Dejan Bimble posted:

What are your personal weird rules of thumb for scouting/the draft?

I've been really into basketball prospect scouting and I have a handful of principles that are sacred to me, but most don't know about or just don't care about them.

Do you guys have any personal tests you use, or weirdly specific lines you won't cross?

I'm new at this. I did a bunch of tape watching last year and had a rough tier ranking.

The first thing I'm watching is does this guy play good? College production against good competition has a way of translating. Then I want the athletic scores. Does anything conflict with the tape? Is there a good reason why this freak athlete has limited production and vice versa. It's about triangulating tape, athleticism, age, and production.

Specific things that are huge negatives? Offensive tackles with short arms is the biggest one for me.

A thing that isn't as big of a deal that you might think is WR drops. Drops aren't a stat that has a lot of carry over year to year. Some guys are all ham hands and insist on body catching and have a lot of drops. that'll show up on tape, but mostly drops just aren't that big of a factor.

A Sneaker Broker
Feb 14, 2020

Daily Dose of Internet Brain Rot

Parallax posted:

Love might end up being great, but was it worth it to draft a successor over a WR or another offensive piece for your MVP QB? Is it possible they could have won another super bowl with Rodgers if they had done so?

Yes. They were drafting a good QB when they didn't need one because the following several QB classes were poo poo.

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

A Sneaker Broker posted:

Yes. They were drafting a good QB when they didn't need one because the following several QB classes were poo poo.

They drafted him because they thought Rodgers was toast. I think the Packers were as surprised as anyone when he rebounded to MVP form for the next two years. They weren’t planning on sitting Jordan that long.

Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.
https://twitter.com/KryzivenTake2/status/1758206281976873220

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Dexo posted:

probably not that defense was obscenely bad, and had a poo poo ton of top draft picks, on it.

Offense wasn't really the problem.

They were a great team but absolutely the lack of weapons was widely recognized as one of the key weaknesses.

As I mentioned, the playoff games had some potential big plays fail because of a lack of playmakers.

CharlestheHammer
Jun 26, 2011

YOU SAY MY POSTS ARE THE RAVINGS OF THE DUMBEST PERSON ON GOD'S GREEN EARTH BUT YOU YOURSELF ARE READING THEM. CURIOUS!
They failed against the Bucs because the Bucs pass rush lived in the backfield. A WR wasn’t gonna change that

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Even if we accept that premise as true, then it’s still correct that investing the Love pick into something besides Love would have helped the team more.

It was a one score loss, so it’s not like the Bucs crushed the packers beyond all hope.

CharlestheHammer
Jun 26, 2011

YOU SAY MY POSTS ARE THE RAVINGS OF THE DUMBEST PERSON ON GOD'S GREEN EARTH BUT YOU YOURSELF ARE READING THEM. CURIOUS!
If you have a conclusion and are trying to build an argument around that conclusion sure

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

CharlestheHammer posted:

If you have a conclusion and are trying to build an argument around that conclusion sure

Here are my claims:
1. It was widely acknowledged that the packers were lacking elite weapons.
2. The packers lost a one score game to the Bucs. 2020-21 playoffs.
3. The packers lost a one score game to the niners. 2021-22 playoffs. This was especially notable because it was a low scoring game.
4. Investing the Love pick into a different supporting position to help their MVP qb would have helped their Super Bowl chances in the next two years more than investing into Love, a player who literally did not play.

There is nothing to disagree with in the above. It is fair and logical to think a bit more help for the offense could have influenced wins in those games.

CharlestheHammer
Jun 26, 2011

YOU SAY MY POSTS ARE THE RAVINGS OF THE DUMBEST PERSON ON GOD'S GREEN EARTH BUT YOU YOURSELF ARE READING THEM. CURIOUS!
Well yes and that argument is silly. He was the MVP of the league and had one of the best seasons of his career. If you think a rookie is what’s going to make it then I don’t know what to tell you

Not to mention the fact the fact the current young WR core aren’t even first rounders. So it’s not like it’s take a WR in the first round or bust. So what makes you think they would take a WR instead of Love?

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

The Packers would have probably hosed it up and taken a defensive guy who they misused, but they could have taken, say, Tee Higgins instead of Love and I don’t think there’s any argument that he would have been useful in 2021 and 2022.

CharlestheHammer
Jun 26, 2011

YOU SAY MY POSTS ARE THE RAVINGS OF THE DUMBEST PERSON ON GOD'S GREEN EARTH BUT YOU YOURSELF ARE READING THEM. CURIOUS!

YOLOsubmarine posted:

The Packers would have probably hosed it up and taken a defensive guy who they misused, but they could have taken, say, Tee Higgins instead of Love and I don’t think there’s any argument that he would have been useful in 2021 and 2022.

Late career Rodgers lived to laser focus on Adams as his security blanket so probably not as much as you would think

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova
Has Tee Higgins ever made a mistake in his life? If so I wouldn’t be so quick to assume he would have been put to good use playing in Green Bay with late-career Aaron Rodgers

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

xbilkis posted:

Has Tee Higgins ever made a mistake in his life? If so I wouldn’t be so quick to assume he would have been put to good use playing in Green Bay with late-career Aaron Rodgers

You mean the dude who was the back to back MVP?

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


YOLOsubmarine posted:

They drafted him because they thought Rodgers was toast. I think the Packers were as surprised as anyone when he rebounded to MVP form for the next two years. They weren’t planning on sitting Jordan that long.

The plan was probably to roll through the final years of Rodgers's contract and then start Love in 2022, maybe even 2021 if Rodgers declined faster than expected. The double MVP forced the Packers to give him a contract extension, and then, oops, he came back to earth in 2022.

Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

Ornery and Hornery posted:

You mean the dude who was the back to back MVP?

That man doesn't tell his rookie recievers his secret hand signals.

Tee Higgins makes a mistake, and he's never getting a ball thrown his way again.

Ask Christian Watson.

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Dexo posted:

That man doesn't tell his rookie recievers his secret hand signals.

Tee Higgins makes a mistake, and he's never getting a ball thrown his way again.

Ask Christian Watson.

He threw a bunch to Allen Lazard, because he had to. He’d have thrown to Tee Higgins if he’d been there.

Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

YOLOsubmarine posted:

He threw a bunch to Allen Lazard, because he had to. He’d have thrown to Tee Higgins if he’d been there.

Allen Lazard is his trusted vet and blanket. He will never not throw to Lazard. He will make your team sign Allen Lazard despite him being sorta cooked, and you having far better options on staff.

CharlestheHammer
Jun 26, 2011

YOU SAY MY POSTS ARE THE RAVINGS OF THE DUMBEST PERSON ON GOD'S GREEN EARTH BUT YOU YOURSELF ARE READING THEM. CURIOUS!
He brought Lazard with him to the jets he absolutely did not have to throw to him. He wanted to

Bismack Billabongo
Oct 9, 2012

New Love Glow
Aaron rodgers is a loser

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Dexo posted:

Allen Lazard is his trusted vet and blanket. He will never not throw to Lazard. He will make your team sign Allen Lazard despite him being sorta cooked, and you having far better options on staff.

Lazard only played in 1 game his first year and got 52 targets in his second year and stayed right in that range until Adams left and he was the primary target in 2022. In 2019 Rodgers threw to him about as often as anyone not named Davante Adams.

In 2022 Doubs had more targets than Lazard had in any previous year. Watson did as well. And neither guy played a full season.

Tee Higgins would have been in his 3rd year in 2022, I’m guessing Rodgers would have thrown the ball to him. MVS was the second most targeted receiver in 2020 and he could catch poo poo. Rodgers is a big baby but he would actually throw the ball to young receivers, even not very good ones, when he had to.

YOLOsubmarine fucked around with this message at 21:36 on Feb 15, 2024

CharlestheHammer
Jun 26, 2011

YOU SAY MY POSTS ARE THE RAVINGS OF THE DUMBEST PERSON ON GOD'S GREEN EARTH BUT YOU YOURSELF ARE READING THEM. CURIOUS!
Though all this is academic because not having WRs was not the problem the packers had that year

Cavauro
Jan 9, 2008

would the packers have drafted him over jordan love if his name was wee kittens?

A Sneaker Broker
Feb 14, 2020

Daily Dose of Internet Brain Rot
I want the Packers to draft Xavier Legette or Malachi Corley.

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Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

CharlestheHammer posted:

Though all this is academic because not having WRs was not the problem the packers had that year

It was universally acknowledged that Aaron was working with a less than ideal WR corp. It was a problem.

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