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GhostofJohnMuir posted:Stoltenberg announced today that the European portion of NATO is on track to meet a collective average of 2% of gdp on defence this year. Last year 18 out of 31 countries met the 2% target laid out in 2014. This is a sixfold increase over the 3 countries at that level in 2014. Puppet master Putin is laughing because his whole plan was to make everyone hate him. It’s a social experiment!
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Feb 15, 2024 07:20
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Looking at the 2014 to 2023 comparison, there's been pretty big progress.
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Feb 15, 2024 08:27
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d64 posted:Looking at the 2014 to 2023 comparison, there's been pretty big progress. Hungary, why increase defense spending if the Russian Mir is an agent of peace and brotherhood among nations  Because it's Europe that is arming to attack Hungary and strip it of is remaining rightful clay in Locarno 2.0, obviously steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 08:35 on Feb 15, 2024 |
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Feb 15, 2024 08:32
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d64 posted:Looking at the 2014 to 2023 comparison, there's been pretty big progress. wtf greece also kinda surprised that turkiye is all the way down there, i woulda thought they'd build out military power to secure status as a regional power and because they have a bunch of unstable and/or belligerent neighbors
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Feb 15, 2024 08:34
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d64 posted:Looking at the 2014 to 2023 comparison, there's been pretty big progress. For Finland that increase isn't quite as radical because IIRC after 2014 Finland changed the way it calculated its defense expenditure to be in line with how NATO calculates it. So adding things like military pensions, costs of foreign deployments and Finnish Border Guard (a separate entity from FDF) into defense expenditure added some percentage points without any actual increase. But of course there's been actual increase too, especially with big arms procurements like F-35 fighters.
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Feb 15, 2024 08:50
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I know this is backtracking into a topic we were told to wrap up, so I apologise and understand if I eat a probe for this, but this conversation has come up a couple of times before, and it frustrates me how the conversation goes (and I’m in the wrong time zone to jump in the conversation in a timely manner). To me, a proxy war isn’t a blanket label for all participants in a war. It’s something you assign to explain how specific participants are acting. The Soviet Afghan war not a proxy war for the USSR or Afghanistan. Their reasons for fighting did not involve the US. But it was a proxy war for the US because the US was there to give the USSR a black eye which they couldn’t do directly out of fear of uncontrolled escalation. And it’s that intent that I think is key. They were there to use Afghanistan as a vector to impact the USSR, and when the USSR left, they left. Afghanistan was a means to an end for the US, and we should be able to label it as a proxy war for the US while also understanding that this does not undermine Afghanistan’s independent reasons for wanting to resist occupation. And to me, this is fundamentally why the West is not treating the Ukrainian war as a proxy war. The West doesn’t want to be a war with Russia! They’ve spent decades trying to build up political and trade relations, and wind down their armed forces. One of the key features of this conflict is illustrating just how underprepared and unmotivated Europe is militarily. This is not some great game, but the West is involved because the way Russia is acting is just loving incompatible with Western ideals. This is about tyrannical dictatorships driving over democracy, about indiscriminate targeting of civilians and endless war crimes, about the impact of nuclear powers ignoring the rules based order we have created to limit nuclear proliferation, and so on. If fascist mole people burst out from the ground and did what Russia is doing, the West would react in the same manner, because it’s not about harming another ‘great power’, it’s because it’s the right thing to do! And this is also why there is talk about EU/NATO membership, and reconstruction funds, because this is about Ukraine and their future, and not about Russia. So, politely, I would disagree that Ukraine is the US’s proxy. The US is not trying to achieve anything via Ukraine. They are a country in desperate need of Western aid, and we should be providing it because of what is being done to them, not because of who is doing it. Ubik_Lives fucked around with this message at 12:18 on Feb 15, 2024 |
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Feb 15, 2024 11:35
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Well said.
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Feb 15, 2024 11:58
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:wtf greece Turkey is doing this, but remember that Turkey is mainly concerned either with Greece (poor as gently caress) or its other direct neighbors like Syria (tiny and poor as gently caress). It's not like they need huge armies to beat them up. Turkey is also still richer than Greece, so both states are probably paying roughly the same in terms of actual numbers.
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Feb 15, 2024 12:11
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Ubik_Lives posted:The US is not trying to achieve anything via Ukraine. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/25/russia-weakened-lloyd-austin-ukraine-visit/
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Feb 15, 2024 12:30
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I also wonder how much of turkey's de facto defense spending is hidden under the column of internal affairs, wrt Kurds and other "terrorist threats"
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Feb 15, 2024 13:02
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steinrokkan posted:I also wonder how much of turkey's de facto defense spending is hidden under the column of internal affairs, wrt Kurds and other "terrorist threats" Also how much of there listed defense spending is lost to blatant corruption. Although to be fair that does seem to a lot of militaries.
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Feb 15, 2024 13:12
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Graph includes Finland but not Sweden. I was under the impression that Sweden's accession was pretty much guaranteed at this point, is that not the case?
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Feb 15, 2024 13:19
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Hungary has not given the OK and it's not known when they will.
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Feb 15, 2024 13:21
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Ubik_Lives posted:So, politely, I would disagree that Ukraine is the US’s proxy. The US is not trying to achieve anything via Ukraine. They are a country in desperate need of Western aid, and we should be providing it because of what is being done to them, not because of who is doing it. The US's strategy of slowly streaming new types of equipment appears to be intended more to prolong the conflict that to provide Ukraine with the means to win, which very much seems like a proxy war type of move. This is particularly telling in light of the US arming and directly supporting one of the other countries currently invading places and murdering people just 1000km or so to the south.
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Feb 15, 2024 13:47
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Enjoy posted:https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/25/russia-weakened-lloyd-austin-ukraine-visit/ Call me stupid, but it seems like it's a good thing if countries that invade their immediate neighbors without provocation are weakened.
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Feb 15, 2024 13:58
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Ubik_Lives posted:This is about about … indiscriminate targeting of civilians and endless war crimes, about the impact of nuclear powers ignoring the rules based order we have created to limit nuclear proliferation, and so on. If fascist mole people burst out from the ground and did what Russia is doing, the West would react in the same manner, because it’s not about harming another ‘great power’, it’s because it’s the right thing to do! Surely events in Gaza and the appalling western response put the lie to this?
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Feb 15, 2024 14:07
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Call me stupid, but it seems like it's a good thing if countries that invade their immediate neighbors without provocation are weakened. Do you think that I was passing judgement on America's goal in Ukraine, or that I was establishing that America has a goal?
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Feb 15, 2024 14:15
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Enjoy posted:Do you think that I was passing judgement on America's goal in Ukraine, or that I was establishing that America has a goal? Man, I don't know. That's why I posted what I did. I haven't updated my D&D Ukraine opinions spreadsheet in a year or so.
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Feb 15, 2024 15:38
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TheDoublePivot posted:Surely events in Gaza and the appalling western response put the lie to this? It would be, if the West was an uniform monolith, and if someone was completely uninformed about the very obvious historical reasons as to why many western politicians don't want to criticize Israel.
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Feb 15, 2024 15:46
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Bel Shazar posted:The US's strategy of slowly streaming new types of equipment appears to be intended more to prolong the conflict that to provide Ukraine with the means to win, which very much seems like a proxy war type of move. quote:This is particularly telling in light of the US arming and directly supporting one of the other countries currently invading places and murdering people just 1000km or so to the south.
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Feb 15, 2024 15:53
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Some snippets from a DOD press event on 13 February. Comments cut to only Ukraine, and some comments cut if they're redundant or just say to wait til after the upcoming Ukraine contact group comments. Background: The president has about $4.2 billion in remaining legal authority, granted by congress, to give presidential drawdown authority (PDA) aid to Ukraine, delegated to the Secretary of State. However, the administration indicates the plan is not to utilize this $4.2 billion in authority until Congress passes a supplemental funding bill. Much of the supplemental funding being discussed is not to buy ordnance or equipment directly for Ukraine, but rather to commit to buying capability or replacing items donated by the US for the US forces or industry themselves, in order to make the US leadership willing to give up additional arms/equipment. The EU, in the meantime, has been providing aid for non-lethal efforts, such as funding Ukraine's government or humanitarian aid, but there is a significant drop in lethal aid to Ukraine over the last two quarters. Highlights from conference: -Last PDA issued was 27 December 2023, valued at around $200 million -Without supplmental funding from congress, no further PDA packages, and no further USAI packages planned -If supplemental approved, DOD not ready to discuss what might be in a future PDA -Artillery and air defense munitions remain top priorities for aid to Ukraine -Continues to urge (since December 2023) congress to pass a supplemental spending bill [My comment: The budget frustration is older than December 2023...] -US continues to stand with Ukraine as long as it takes. This drew obvious questions of how that can be when the administration can't exactly support Ukraine fully without a congressional authority to do so. quote:DEPUTY PRESS SECRETARY SABRINA SINGH: Link to press conference: https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3676173/deputy-pentagon-press-secretary-sabrina-singh-holds-a-press-briefing/ Background PDA info: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12040 List of PDAs: https://comptroller.defense.gov/Budget-Execution/pda_announcements/
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Feb 15, 2024 16:16
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Bel Shazar posted:The US's strategy of slowly streaming new types of equipment appears to be intended more to prolong the conflict that to provide Ukraine with the means to win, which very much seems like a proxy war type of move. TheDoublePivot posted:Surely events in Gaza and the appalling western response put the lie to this? I don't want to push my luck too much, but my assumption (and I'm not an American, so this is from a distance) is that there's not the political appetite in both the government and the electorate to shoulder the cost of the war in Ukraine alone. The US seems to want this to be another "lead from behind" where it's part of a coalition with Europe, and provides new systems on par with Europe, to limit political ammunition being provided to detractors at home. It's not so much a deliberate action to prolong the war, but an unfortunate side effect of the current domestic political situation. As for the comparisons to Israel and Gaza, and yeah, I chose mole people because there wouldn't be a pre-existing political relationship to muddy the comparison. By brining in a new entity we can see that the West is doing the right thing for the right reasons in Ukraine, and the wrong thing for the wrong reasons in Gaza. But this conversation was about motivations to engage in a conflict, and different conflicts can have different motivators, and I'm also not going to pretend that Western countries can't be massive hypocrites if they stand to gain something. That doesn't mean they can't ever be in the right, and that we need to assume the West supporting Ukraine means they secretly want to return to the Cold War.
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Feb 15, 2024 16:25
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Bel Shazar posted:The US's strategy of slowly streaming new types of equipment appears to be intended more to prolong the conflict that to provide Ukraine with the means to win, which very much seems like a proxy war type of move. I think this is primarily due to fears of Russian escalation (whether well-founded or not). Hamas doesn't have nuclear weapons so those concerns don't apply.
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Feb 15, 2024 16:51
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Bel Shazar posted:The US's strategy of slowly streaming new types of equipment appears to be intended more to prolong the conflict that to provide Ukraine with the means to win, which very much seems like a proxy war type of move. Belteshazzar posted:I think this is primarily due to fears of Russian escalation (whether well-founded or not). Hamas doesn't have nuclear weapons so those concerns don't apply. It's a couple other things: The administration has limitations put in place by law on how much military aid can be given to Ukraine, without congress passing a law (funding bills are law) to permit additional aid. If one could force an up and down single issue vote on Ukraine, likely congress would authorize more funding. However, congressmembers are tying up multiple issues into one bundle, which makes the whole bill get stuck in arguments or be poisoned. The most recent bill with Ukraine supplemental funding also included the US Southwest Border, changes to immigration law, funding for Taiwan, funding for Israel, and funding for Ukraine.* Some of this disfunction is policy dispute, some of this is likely tied to upcoming elections. *and sometimes funding for Taiwan or Ukraine or Israel really means funding for the US to make the US comfortable giving items to these countries. So when the administration uses presidential drawdown authority to send aid to Ukraine or Israel or whoever "without congressional approval," what they are doing is executing the authority that congress granted them in US law. Congress just sets limits on how much such aid can be made "without congressional approval" per year, and in past years made very large adjustments in the permitted value of military aid to Ukraine. Thus congress allows expedited processing by the administration without requiring per-unit congressional authorizations, but if congressmembers don't like a particular aid package, then congress can still say "I was not consulted [but ignore that this is allowed because of the law passed by congress]" The other issue: Ukraine is not a US ally. There are differences in how the US can and does treat allies compared with non-allies. Major Non-NATO Allies are defined by US law. https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/ quote:Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) status is a designation under U.S. law [1] that provides foreign partners with certain benefits in the areas of defense trade and security cooperation. The Major Non-NATO Ally designation is a powerful symbol of the close relationship the United States shares with those countries and demonstrates our deep respect for the friendship for the countries to which it is extended. While MNNA status provides military and economic privileges, it does not entail any security commitments to the designated country.
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Feb 15, 2024 17:07
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Libluini posted:It would be, if the West was an uniform monolith, and if someone was completely uninformed about the very obvious historical reasons as to why many western politicians don't want to criticize Israel. The post I was responding to read as describing the West in monolithic terms, thankfully the OP has since clarified their position. Is it your contention that disgust with much of the Western response to Gaza is born from ignorance? I appreciate this is getting off topic, happy to continue in the Palestine thread.
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Feb 15, 2024 17:20
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TheDoublePivot posted:The post I was responding to read as describing the West in monolithic terms, thankfully the OP has since clarified their position. No, I think you're wrong, I do believe the West would uniformly act aggressively if fascist mole people erupted from the Earth. Your post makes no sense, did you not read the original post or something? Or is your argument here that Hamas is an equivalent threat to a large empire invading your neighbors?
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Feb 15, 2024 21:09
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Oracle posted:That has more to do with a) general slowass bureaucracy b) Republicans intransigence and c) concern about how the equipment will be used (e.g. no attacking Russian soil directly). surely you cannot be claiming that concentration camp prisoners lashing out at those around the concentration camp in any way justifies israel's genocidal campaign? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 16, 2024 00:16
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It doesn't justify it, but "this country will respond disproportionately if you kill a large number of their civilians" is a very different threat as a third party than "this country will use revanchist moon logic to invade its neighbours over and over again".
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Feb 16, 2024 00:28
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Folks we already have an I/P thread
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Feb 16, 2024 01:12
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A big flaming stink posted:surely you cannot be claiming that concentration camp prisoners lashing out at those around the concentration camp in any way justifies israel's genocidal campaign? But you're justifying Hamas" brutal attack by saying that they were merely "lashing out." The Hamas attack was on civilians, sometimes even babies, and involved gang rape and mutilating women in front of them. Whatever terrible poo poo Israel has done does not justify anyone killing innocent people that have nothing to do with it. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 16, 2024 06:25
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small butter posted:But you're justifying Hamas" brutal attack by saying that they were merely "lashing out." The Hamas attack was on civilians, sometimes even babies, and involved gang rape and mutilating women in front of them. Whatever terrible poo poo Israel has done does not justify anyone killing innocent people that have nothing to do with it. The oppressed don't need to be justified, any fault is that ifnthe oppressor. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 16, 2024 09:17
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Charliegrs posted:Folks we already have an I/P thread We have multiple.
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Feb 16, 2024 09:33
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Bel Shazar posted:The oppressed don't need to be justified, any fault is that ifnthe oppressor. Not launching a massive attack on civilians and committing an inconceivable amount of war crimes in one day is actually something that all sides of any conflict must adhere to regardless of an oppressor/oppressed dynamic.
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Feb 16, 2024 10:28
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Bel Shazar posted:The oppressed don't need to be justified, any fault is that ifnthe oppressor. Lunatic (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 16, 2024 11:28
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Local moon language media are now reporting that Navalnyj has died... The news will probably show up in English shortly.
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Feb 16, 2024 12:26
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:wtf greece Lol, Turkey is the belligerent neighbor. Also, their unique geographical situation means they don’t have to do the 2.0 and still get to be at the NATO table and be welcomed.
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Feb 16, 2024 12:29
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Navalny might be dead https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1758452914798875040
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Feb 16, 2024 12:31
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In the Guardian now https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/16/russian-activist-and-putin-critic-alexei-navalny-dies-in-prison
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Feb 16, 2024 12:33
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I guess Putin understands how fragile his power is. He was shocked by Prigozhin's mutiny and got rid of him, now he's purging political prisoners. I mean, Navalnyi was already on the hit list, but he could have been held in detention forever.
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Feb 16, 2024 12:39
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He was likely to die in that prison from any number of things not directly caused by being pushed or poisoned so I believe the whole intention was for him to die soon but Putin now has the most un-plausible plausible deniability ever
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Feb 16, 2024 12:42
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