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zoux posted:lwe really think an outright majority of Americans aged 18-29 supports a 16 week abortion ban? And is in fact the demo most pro abortion ban? This is why I’m rather skeptical of most of this early season polling that contains lots of counter intuitive stuff like this. Aside from “young people suddenly all became Christian fash in a one year period” I’m left to wonder about whether only wing nut young people answer these polls so they can say TRUMP and hang up the phone.
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Feb 21, 2024 18:01
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just eliminate districts entirely and divvy out reps based on popular vote
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Feb 21, 2024 18:01
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:just eliminate districts entirely and divvy out reps based on popular vote You don't need to eliminate districts, single transferable vote maintains local districts while still being proportional.
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Feb 21, 2024 18:03
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:There are plenty of "hold your nose and vote" type Democrats who are former troops. Usually they're the "economic conservative social liberal" types though. Gabbard was all the way out there in my-church-hates-the-gays land all along, right? Originally, yeah, but she backed off on a lot of that stuff after Obama won the presidency. She campaigned for gay marriage bans in the 00s, but in the 2010s she was a member of the House LGBT Equality Caucus in the 10s, backed plenty of pro-LGBT bills, and frequently apologized for her past anti-LGBT positions and rhetoric. She became a big up-and-coming Dem who spent some time as the vice-chair of the DNC, though she resigned that position when she endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2016. And in the 2020s, she revealed that all of that backing off was completely fake and that she still held all those positions. For example, she complained that DeSantis' "Don't Say Gay" bill didn't go far enough in preventing the gays from "indoctrinating woke sexual values in our schools". Personally, my read is that after seeing Obama win, she thought she had a shot at being president one day too, but she realized that her positions were unacceptable to the Dem electorate, and she wanted the presidency badly enough that she was willing to spend an entire decade hiding and apologizing for her regressive views and pretending to have become a progressive. Once her presidential ambitions were dashed, she dropped the mask.
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Feb 21, 2024 18:04
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zoux posted:It's crazy how everything bad that happens is somehow the Democrats' fault. I do agree they should've used their 60-vote Senate supermajority to pass a SCOTUS reform bill in 2021, but I guess they are just too decorum poisoned. lake has enough brain cells to realize she might actually have to get moderates to win but lol. Main Paineframe posted:Originally, yeah, but she backed off on a lot of that stuff after Obama won the presidency. She campaigned for gay marriage bans in the 00s, but in the 2010s she was a member of the House LGBT Equality Caucus in the 10s, backed plenty of pro-LGBT bills, and frequently apologized for her past anti-LGBT positions and rhetoric. She became a big up-and-coming Dem who spent some time as the vice-chair of the DNC, though she resigned that position when she endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2016.
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Feb 21, 2024 18:11
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:just eliminate districts entirely and divvy out reps based on popular vote That was made explicitly illegal in the 60's because southern states wanted to use it to prevent their states from sending black members to congress.
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Feb 21, 2024 18:13
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Main Paineframe posted:
I agree except i don't think she has any actual views at all. Just one of those people with no internal narrative at all. I think she just thought she had to be a Democrat to get anywhere in Hawaii politics, then tried to go national, failed at that, realized she had an opportunity in the right wing grifter circuit, glommed onto it. Hell, she might be president in 2028.
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Feb 21, 2024 18:17
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The Democrats had a supermajority and the opportunity to pass federal legislation codifying abortion rights, but chose not to, vis a vis Obama's own words as the leader of the party, in 2009: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeWYQN-Qoy8
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Feb 21, 2024 18:31
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Zwabu posted:This is why I’m rather skeptical of most of this early season polling that contains lots of counter intuitive stuff like this. Aside from “young people suddenly all became Christian fash in a one year period” I’m left to wonder about whether only wing nut young people answer these polls so they can say TRUMP and hang up the phone. In my view, you're right to be skeptical of polling. A quick poll of this thread will illustrate the point quite nicely. How many people in here answer calls from unknown numbers? if you do how many listen to the robotic spiel of every caller, patiently wait for them to finish their spiel to figure out whether it's a poll or not and then, if it is a poll answer it? I personally don't answer calls from unknown numbers. A few situations where you might: 1) you are currently looking for work and have put out job applications and are waiting for a call back 2) you are bored and lonely, so getting someone on the phone to talk to is a rare treat 3) you're so full of piss and vinegar that getting a random person on the phone to scream at is a rare treat And of course, these are all just guesses. By definition, you don't know the demographics, education, income level, employment situation, or anything else about people who don't answer your survey. Usually the only things that are reported are sample size and margin of error. And that margin of error is based on untestable, but likely wrong, assumptions about the sample. This is not a solved problem, and I've seen no evidence that we are anywhere close to solving it. That's not to say that polls are useless. Sometimes they're spot on. The problem is that we don't know how to reliably differentiate polls that are spot on from polls that are way off because our methodology is hosed.
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Feb 21, 2024 18:33
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ex post facho posted:The Democrats had a supermajority and the opportunity to pass federal legislation codifying abortion rights, but chose not to, vis a vis Obama's own words as the leader of the party, in 2009: There were also 7 pro-life Democratic Senators and ~35 pro-life House members at the time. Same issue as when they almost killed Obamacare over abortion coverage: https://www.politico.com/story/2009/11/senate-faces-abortion-rights-rift-029351 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 18:36 on Feb 21, 2024 |
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Feb 21, 2024 18:34
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:He seemed to love Tim Scott last night: He's probably already forgotten about him. He'll heap praise on anyone he perceives as being his biggest supporter currently in the room, but I think he honestly would rather not even pick a VP if he didn't basically have to. He doesn't care and I doubt he's even thinking about it yet, except as a carrot he can dangle when he needs to. 
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Feb 21, 2024 18:36
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Gabbard absolutely has some political positions, such as "Using chemical weapons on children is a good thing, actually"
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Feb 21, 2024 18:36
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You may have heard about the case of Rebecca Vance, a woman who was conspiracy poisoned and thought the only way to protect herself and her 13-year-old son was to flee into the wilderness and live off-grid. Her lack of preparation and underestimation of what it takes to live in the woods led to her, her son, and her sister freezing/starving to death. Outside magazine published a long-form narrative story about the case yesterday, which is both depressing and illuminating. It gets to a lot of topics we talk about in here, especially how social media radicalizes people into crazy beliefs. quote:Another relative was told a different story. Christine said to their stepsister, Trevala Jara, that they would be heading into the wilderness to live off the grid. Trevala, who saw Christine every week, knew that Rebecca had spent much of the pandemic glued to her computer, growing increasingly obsessed with conspiracy theories and the end of the world. She feared vaccines, technology, and the power of global elites, and thought that the only escape was to get as far away from other people as she could. The author actually splits his time living off-grid in the San Luis Valley, so he talked with other people who have chosen that lifestyle, for whatever reason (usually crazy) quote:New people arrive here every summer, many with the intention of overwintering. That always raises eyebrows: temperatures plunge, winds blow hard. Few new arrivals are prepared for it, and most bail. If they run out of money, they sometimes end up at the La Puente shelter in the town of Alamosa, where I first encountered off-gridders as a volunteer for a rural outreach program designed to support people when things got rough. My mentor was Matt Little, a full-time employee who himself had lived off-grid and had exquisite radar about who was probably doing OK and who was not. Twice in one winter, he told me that he was worried about an older guy living near him in a van. Matt offered the man food and blankets, but he turned down all assistance. That didn’t keep Matt from feeling guilty when the man was found frozen to death one December day, even though Matt knew it wasn’t his fault. Apparently a lot of people die every winter because they decided to flee society but were completely unprepared for what living in the god's honest wilderness entails. Vance was equipped for a nice weekend out at the lake, not a winter in the Rocky Mountains quote:The dwelling they set up would later be described by investigators as an “eighty-dollar Walmart tent.” Their sleeping bags were warm but not warm enough for winter. Other equipment and supplies reflected a lack of familiarity with wilderness life. They had no firearms or big knives. They had a fishing rod, and while the lakes in the wilderness area are stocked with trout, they’re frozen and inaccessible in winter. To purify water they had LifeStraws, useful for hiking but not intended for long-term cold-weather camping. (Freezing temperatures can wreak havoc on personal water filters.) The saddest parts of the story are the excerpts from Talon's journal. He comes across as optimistic and positive. He was completely isolated by his mother, and his only friends were on-line. quote:As part of her plan to exit society, Rebecca urged Talon to learn Boy Scout–style wilderness skills—knots, foraging, building shelters. A journal that he brought with him off-grid begins with loving comments about “Mommy” and “Aunty,” descriptions of their “stinky” cat, Oreo, and an upbeat retrospective about attending school in person. He recalled that the teachers were very nice, referred to seven of them by name, and mentioned the time his report on a trip to the zoo had been posted on the wall for all to see. “I got an A in all my classes! Some I got more than 100% in! The author concludes with an interview with the local coroner, who declined to list Talon's death as homicide because quote:Barnes said that he told the pathologist about reading Talon’s diary, about his love for his mother and her evident love for him. In every respect but the decision to go off-grid, he said, she had appeared to be a good parent. So they ruled his death an accident. She obviously wasn't a good mother, she was mentally ill and incapable of providing for a child. Every time you see some complete right wing nutjob going off on twitter or the news, you have to wonder if they have children and how negatively they are being impacted by their parents' delusions, which are almost always manufactured after falling into various online echo chambers and feedback loops. I wonder if we're going to have a whole generation of kids who were raised by these people and whether they will reject that as adults. Stewart Rhodes' children did. It's a long read but well-written, critical but sympathetic, and I'd recommend reading the whole thing.
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Feb 21, 2024 18:37
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Sir Lemming posted:He's probably already forgotten about him. He'll heap praise on anyone he perceives as being his biggest supporter currently in the room, but I think he honestly would rather not even pick a VP if he didn't basically have to. He doesn't care and I doubt he's even thinking about it yet, except as a carrot he can dangle when he needs to. He cares because he thinks pence betrayed him and he plans to run for a third term after this one (he is delusional). He will pick someone with absolute loyalty. My bet, seriously, is Ivanka.
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Feb 21, 2024 18:41
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:He cares because he thinks pence betrayed him and he plans to run for a third term after this one (he is delusional). He will pick someone with absolute loyalty. My bet, seriously, is Ivanka. i think if he isnt in jail yet or convicted or whatever or hell even if he is, he will try. my question is if he loses this year, does the GOP still hold on. because i think they do as long as the base does.
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Feb 21, 2024 18:45
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:just eliminate districts entirely and divvy out reps based on popular vote Proportionally sure (in theory, I don’t think it’s currently legal), but not a straight state-wide popular vote like the senate. It would also require you to vote on a party, not a candidate. So if a state had 10 reps and 50% voted Dem, 40% voted Rep, 10% voted Green, Green would get a representative. Which is why it’ll never happen.
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Feb 21, 2024 18:52
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How would that work, practically? Let's say you did actually have that system and now you have the state vote breakdown and also each party's slate of proposed representatives. How do you fairly cut down the slates to fit the proportional spots?
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Feb 21, 2024 18:58
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Dapper_Swindler posted:my question is if he loses this year, does the GOP still hold on. because i think they do as long as the base does. I think we all know the answer to this question. Of course they will still hold on. And of course they'll say the election of Biden is a fraud if he wins. And of course Trump will have some sort've fundraiser to pay for more of his crappy lawyers etc etc etc. Its not a political party anymore. Its a cult. The real potential for a possible ending will be when the glorious leader, Trump, dies. He could easily live to be 90 given his father lived longer. Of course his dad got dementia and then Alzheimer's around 10yr before he died too. To be honest watching him on TV, especially the ones filmed late at night in front of huge crowds, I can't help but think he is already starting to get sundowners syndrome now. But he could also just be really tired too.
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Feb 21, 2024 19:05
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The Alabama Supreme Court made a boneheaded and unprecedented ruling that "Frozen embryos are children" yesterday -meaning anyone who destroys one is liable for harming a child - and the consequences have been immediate: https://twitter.com/rmc031/status/1760358769060405483 Doesn't seem very pro family to me
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Feb 21, 2024 19:07
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haveblue posted:How would that work, practically? Let's say you did actually have that system and now you have the state vote breakdown and also each party's slate of proposed representatives. How do you fairly cut down the slates to fit the proportional spots? You could probably leave that up to the individual parties to figure out for themselves. The state runs the election and tells the parties 'okay you won X seats, fill 'em'. I could see parties basically having a line-up of candidates listed out, and fill their won seats in the order listed.
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Feb 21, 2024 19:08
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ex post facho posted:The Democrats had a supermajority and the opportunity to pass federal legislation codifying abortion rights, but chose not to, vis a vis Obama's own words as the leader of the party, in 2009: Yeah, Democrats chose to use their short period of a functional supermajority to focus on getting the ACA and other urgent priorities passed instead of abortion rights which at the time were not in immediate peril. Part of that was because the ACA was going to be hard to dismantle once in place while a future Republican court willing to strike down Roe would find it trivial to strike down a law that affirmed Roe. Probably a good choice both in hindsight and the moment, but since 2016 everyone who yawned loudly at the idea of voting for the courts used it as an unearned vindication.
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Feb 21, 2024 19:10
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Jon Pod Van Damm posted:Was it a mistake for the Biden administration to use the words "final solution"? did this actually happen anywhere?
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Feb 21, 2024 19:10
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Killer robot posted:Yeah, Democrats chose to use their short period of a functional supermajority to focus on getting the ACA and other urgent priorities passed instead of abortion rights which at the time were not in immediate peril. Part of that was because the ACA was going to be hard to dismantle once in place while a future Republican court willing to strike down Roe would find it trivial to strike down a law that affirmed Roe. Probably a good choice both in hindsight and the moment, but since 2016 everyone who yawned loudly at the idea of voting for the courts used it as an unearned vindication. Those like 60 working days the Dems had a tenuous supermajority 16 years ago are used as a weapon for every "dems don't really support this" fight like they somehow could of passed thousands of bills in that very small window, it's never made sense if you look at what actually was happening during that time period.
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Feb 21, 2024 19:15
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socialsecurity posted:Those like 60 working days the Dems had a tenuous supermajority 16 years ago are used as a weapon for every "dems don't really support this" fight like they somehow could of passed thousands of bills in that very small window, it's never made sense if you look at what actually was happening during that time period. It's the same thing as "democrats are the party of slavery, republicans freed the slaves": technically true but utterly devoid of context to the point that it's deceptive. Same as people who claim that Biden's at fault for the Dobbs ruling because "it happened under his watch" or "Oh, who's the president right now"?
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Feb 21, 2024 19:16
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Dull Fork posted:You could probably leave that up to the individual parties to figure out for themselves. The state runs the election and tells the parties 'okay you won X seats, fill 'em'. I could see parties basically having a line-up of candidates listed out, and fill their won seats in the order listed. So kind of jury-rigging it into a parliamentary system? I like voting for a local person to actually go out and represent an area, but that's basically already dead as a concept. And this is makes it slightly easier to let a third party in ; you could do something like Germany did and give people seats if they manage to carve off 5% of the popular vote (or other small number, I'm not gonna google what the Greens needed to get a seat at the table).
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Feb 21, 2024 19:18
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haveblue posted:How would that work, practically? Let's say you did actually have that system and now you have the state vote breakdown and also each party's slate of proposed representatives. How do you fairly cut down the slates to fit the proportional spots? It’s done in some European parliaments so it’s possible, though to be honest I don’t know the details about how the party picks who from the slate actually gets to go. I would think the party would kind of send out some sort of ranking that they would have to follow. It puts a lot more power in the hands of state parties which is not super great. But it’s better than statewide popular elections.
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Feb 21, 2024 19:20
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ex post facho posted:The Democrats had a supermajority and the opportunity to pass federal legislation codifying abortion rights, but chose not to, vis a vis Obama's own words as the leader of the party, in 2009: Crows Turn Off fucked around with this message at 19:30 on Feb 21, 2024 |
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Feb 21, 2024 19:28
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Killer robot posted:Yeah, Democrats chose to use their short period of a functional supermajority to focus on getting the ACA and other urgent priorities passed instead of abortion rights which at the time were not in immediate peril. Part of that was because the ACA was going to be hard to dismantle once in place while a future Republican court willing to strike down Roe would find it trivial to strike down a law that affirmed Roe. Probably a good choice both in hindsight and the moment, but since 2016 everyone who yawned loudly at the idea of voting for the courts used it as an unearned vindication. Yeah, it's not like codifying Roe into law would make it impervious to attack from SCOTUS. Hell, the Voting Rights Act is law but it's not stopping the Roberts court from taking big juicy bites out of it.
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Feb 21, 2024 19:29
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Yeah frankly it would’ve taken a constitutional amendment to protect Roe from SCOTUS and that was never going to happen.
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Feb 21, 2024 19:34
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Crows Turn Off posted:A conservative SCOTUS was going to overturn Roe no matter what. It just so happened that it was a state challenge that went to them instead of a federal challenge. Believing the conservatives when they say it was only overturned because it was not federally protected by the Democrats is honestly extremely naive. The entire argument is ignorant considering it was 1) the conservatives fighting Roe for decades, 2) a conservative President who put conservatives on the court, and 3) a conservative SCOTUS who overturned it. i mean its because apperently only the dems have agency, the chuds and the GOP are like nature.
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Feb 21, 2024 19:36
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https://twitter.com/dr_kkjetelina/status/1760191307673399368 It's really sad that it's going to take several thousand dead children for us to learn our lesson again. Or whatever number of dead children it takes for people to acknowledge the actual cause instead of chalking it up to 5G networks or whatever. I feel really bad for parents who have children that, for whatever legit medical reason, can't be vaccinated. We're moving towards a perverse outcome where healthy children have to stay home because sick and unvaccinated kids keep getting sent to school by parents. All because for some reason vaccines became lib-coded
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Feb 21, 2024 19:42
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The Florida "surgeon General" is an anti vax nutjob right? No lesson will be learned from any number of infant corpses. Not in this country.
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Feb 21, 2024 19:47
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zoux posted:It's really sad that it's going to take several thousand dead children for us to learn our lesson again. Or whatever number of dead children it takes for people to acknowledge the actual cause instead of chalking it up to 5G networks or whatever. I feel really bad for parents who have children that, for whatever legit medical reason, can't be vaccinated. We're moving towards a perverse outcome where healthy children have to stay home because sick and unvaccinated kids keep getting sent to school by parents. Unfortunately, people letting themselves and their families die from covid, and deaths from gun violence proves that no amount of dead kids will convince people to change their politically-based ignorance. The only way this gets fixed is by making vaccines mandatory by law, with obvious exceptions for those with real medical issues.
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Feb 21, 2024 19:49
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DeSantis literally appointed him because of his blog posts about how hydroxychloroquine was a miracle cure and his WSJ Op-Ed in May 2020 about how people are overreacting about Covid death rates in order to cover for China. He also thinks mRNA vaccines can cause permanent genetic mutations that can be passed on to your kids. He is a legit crazy person and it is a situation where DeSantis was desperate to find the most "covid isn't a big deal" doctor he could find to help his presidential campaign, but it had real health consequences. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Feb 21, 2024 |
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Feb 21, 2024 19:52
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:No lesson will be learned from any number of infant corpses. Not in this country. This is true of guns because pro-gun nuts have been established at every level of government for a long time, but I don't think vaccine denialism is quite that entrenched yet. Unvaccinated deaths are still seen as preventable by a lot of people and there's no equivalent of the NRA or the 2nd Amendment for vaccines. California was able to fix itself last time they had a measles outbreak meta-epidemic, although I think that's been slipping recently
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Feb 21, 2024 19:52
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Well it would help if the FL Surgeon General wasn’t a Covid grifter He was one of those doctors who were happily writing hundreds or thousands of prescriptions for ivermectin to Covid patients
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Feb 21, 2024 19:52
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:
Well at least it was a huge help in that regard.
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Feb 21, 2024 19:55
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haveblue posted:This is true of guns because pro-gun nuts have been established at every level of government for a long time, but I don't think vaccine denialism is quite that entrenched yet. Unvaccinated deaths are still seen as preventable by a lot of people and there's no equivalent of the NRA or the 2nd Amendment for vaccines. California was able to fix itself last time they had a measles outbreak meta-epidemic, although I think that's been slipping recently I was speaking a bit rhetorically. No additional lesson will be learned because all the people who want to learn anything already know vaccines work, and all the vaccine deniers don't want to learn otherwise. Hundreds of thousands of people in this country just died, within the past four years, denying wkth thwir last breaths that the disease which killed them existed. Those who have ears to hear have already heard.
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Feb 21, 2024 19:56
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haveblue posted:This is true of guns because pro-gun nuts have been established at every level of government for a long time, but I don't think vaccine denialism is quite that entrenched yet. Unvaccinated deaths are still seen as preventable by a lot of people and there's no equivalent of the NRA or the 2nd Amendment for vaccines. wasnt this before 2016, the meta for internet shitposting has changed and things are going to get worse before it
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Feb 21, 2024 19:58
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I was speaking a bit rhetorically. No additional lesson will be learned because all the people who want to learn anything already know vaccines work, and all the vaccine deniers don't want to learn otherwise. I think that if COVID had killed children at the same rate as it did old people, instead of not at all, we would've seen a massively different response here and world wide. The fact that most of the deaths were elderly - many elderly and invisible - people cared less. Fully a quarter of the Texas nursing home population died of COVID, that's an unimaginable holocaust if not for the fact that we put people in those places so we don't have to think about them while they are dying.
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Feb 21, 2024 20:02
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