Blurred posted:

I missed polling chat last night, but wanted to add my two cents here.

There seems to be a lot of complacency here about the state of the 2024 election - the Republicans are running on losing issues, they're out of money, etc. - but I think we should be honest with ourselves that the polling just isn't reflecting that at the moment. RCP has Trump ahead in 16 out of the past 20 polls (2 tied) and I don't think that can easily be dismissed. You can point to things like sampling errors for individual polls, but that doesn't work when a lot of pollsters with different polling methods are all showing similar things. You could argue that all the polls are somehow systematically missing some key group of voters (which is perhaps what happened with the polls in 2016 and 2020, where their traditional screening methods led them to underestimate Trump's level of support among traditionally "unreliable" voters), but I don't see clear reason to presume that's happening here, nor that such systematic errors would necessarily be to Biden's advantage.

Some posters said that polling overestimated Republican performance in 2022, but that just isn't true. The final 538 average had Republicans 1.2% ahead, and they actually won by 2.8%. That's still an underperformance for Republicans under the circumstances, but it was anticipated by the polling. The polls severely underestimated the performance of Democrats in some of the special elections, yes, but polling of local races has always been super unreliable.

So, coupled with the fact that Biden's approval rating is currently under water, I think the polls should be taken seriously, and we should presume that Biden is genuinely trailing Trump at the moment and we should rightly be nervous about Trump winning in 2024. However, that's not to say that we should take the polls as accurate forecasts of what is actually going to happen in November. I think we should treat them as accurate, yes, but they reflect current voter preferences, not necessarily what the preferences will be in November. The fact is that Biden hasn't really kicked off his election campaign yet, whereas Trump has been in campaign mode for most of the past 3 years. Trump is getting press coverage (for, er, various reasons) while Biden only seems to get press coverage when they want to talk about his mental decline. Voters have the minds of goldfish and might have forgotten about some of the more heinous poo poo Trump did as president, but they're going to be reminded about it pretty constantly once the Biden campaign kicks into gear. Plus there's the minor issue of the 91 indictments hanging over Trump's head. If there's any sympathy for Trump's "persecution" at the moment, that might disappear pretty quickly once the guilty verdicts start rolling in.

So while I don't believe in unskewing the polls - I genuinely believe that Biden is behind at the moment - that's hardly reason for dooming at the moment, because most of the changes to the dynamic of the race in the next 8 months are likely to be to Biden's advantage (barring some extraordinary event - like economic collapse - that can't be foreseen for now). But I also think it's clear that we shouldn't be gloating over the corpse of Trump's political career or the Republican Party just yet, because - against all reason and human decency - their popularity seems to be holding up for now.

kazil posted:

Grey Cat posted:

It's pretty good I've only ever seen the full cut which is like 2.5hrs. If anyone is on the fence for watching it let me sell you.

It has a booby robot, feeding humans to the work machine, a hosed up church, and some of the best set design and miniatures ever.

TulliusCicero posted:

These gaps in polling to result are interesting to me

Dems aren't having these gaps. Trump really is having a a pretty good sized, consistent gap between polls and voting every time.

kazil posted:

New Hampshire had a large effort to get Biden a win via write-in vote and Michigan had a large effort to get people to vote uncommitted.

MEIN RAVEN posted:

I just saw it for the first time two weeks ago or so. Amazing film that was ahead of its time. It’s almost hard to believe that in ten years that country became the country of nazis

marshalljim posted:

How long until the committee makes Hunter show his dong?

Mad Doctor Cthulhu posted:

His support for an abortion ban combined with his behavior (side effects of some mental decline) is probably making all of those Ride and Die types realize nobody respects them but is openly laughing at them, making them less likely to bother.

CommieGIR posted:

MTG is gonna have a dong lineup. Please identify which is the dong of Hunter Biden.

kazil posted:

New Hampshire and Michigan had same day Democratic primaries, so I don't think that can entirely explain it.

I think polling just isn't doing a good job of accurately capturing Trump's numbers

StrangersInTheNight posted:

Imagine being so behind on the Palestine/Israel situation that you've only just this last year realized it's bad and blaming loving Biden for the state of US policy with Israel since its inception

Nocheez posted:

People are tired of trump. His base is shrinking, and people long for politics that aren't insanity.

Biden beat trump handily in 2020, this year will be no different.

Eight-Six posted:

the takeaway from 2016 and 2020 should be "yes, you do in fact have to vote every time, because society does not exist unchanged through its own momentum"

Nocheez posted:

people long for politics that aren't insanity

quote:

Biden beat trump handily in 2020, this year will be no different.

marshalljim posted:

How long until the committee makes Hunter show his dong?

CommieGIR posted:

Also big money is not behind Trump anymore - they've already tasted his lovely economy and they don't want more.

MEIN RAVEN posted:

This is a solid effort post and more or less how I feel. I read an LA times article which more or less confirmed that most “swing” voters stick their heads in the sand until fall and don’t really pay attention to anything otherwise. Which, cool. That’s who we depend on to maintain democracy.

I don’t think Biden has started campaigning yet because decorum, and I do think Americans have goldfish brains and I do think anger towards the incumbent is expected at this time. Bush jr had really negative ratings and easily
Won reelection, same for Obama, etc. But it’s different this time because one person wants to literally try to end our government. So that’s cool.

I just don’t get willful complacency. Maybe I’m less happy because of that, but also I don’t think I’m stupid so, plus minus there

TulliusCicero posted:

Is there any exit polling regarding the primaries?

That would give a much more accurate pattern of data than online polls atm

Serious_Cyclone posted:

Did the ultra-wealthy do poorly under Trump? They got a huge tax break and it seemed like there were a lot of gains for the rich during his term.

Serious_Cyclone posted:

doubt

jokes posted:

They made out like literal bandits but it was SO unsustainable. The tax cuts weren't reverted by Biden so that's really no reason to go for Trump since, as Biden said, "nothing would fundamentally change"

StrangersInTheNight posted:

Imagine being so behind on the Palestine/Israel situation that you've only just this last year realized it's bad and blaming loving Biden for the state of US policy with Israel since its inception

Bitch it's the career politicians that don't turn over with the presidencies that set this poo poo up. You can't vote away America's allyship with Israel, you've actually gotta go the concerted effort over time thing.

Disco Pope posted:

A career as a bully in a 1950s set Stephen King adaptation just pissed away by a life of crime.

Don't Google this.

Eight-Six posted:

ok but how about "people long for politics that aren't insanity but they're hopelessly addicted/traumatized and don't realize it"

BlackIronHeart posted:

I was under the impression COVID is why the economy tanked under Trump and the rich were just fine with it otherwise.

steinrokkan posted:

I bet Hunter and Commander could wipe the floor with the whole Boebert family

Serious_Cyclone posted:

Did the ultra-wealthy do poorly under Trump? They got a huge tax break and it seemed like there were a lot of gains for the rich during his term.

Serious_Cyclone posted:

I feel like "making out like bandits but it's unsustainable" hasn't stopped their enthusiasm before. I agree that the big money has been perpetually looking for another option during the primaries, but I think once Trump is the candidate the dark money crowd will be the very first group to line up behind him.

CommieGIR posted:

The ultra-wealthy always do fine, but their businesses did not and Trump kept messing with how the economy ran and loving supply chains over and it pissed off a lot of big names.

Serious_Cyclone posted:

Sure, but I'd imagine at least as many Dem voters might be tempted to vote in the GOP primary as well.

big mean giraffe posted:

Pro tip everyone knows this and Biden is literally one of those career politicians lol

jokes posted:

Trump has no intention of leaving so they're throwing money at his opponents and will probably only give money to Trump a little bit to make Biden (Hillary in 2016) go to the right.