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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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LifeSunDeath
Jan 4, 2007

still gay rights and smoke weed every day
Navaly funeral looking like one of the biggest anti war protests I've seen in russia.

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fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Blue Footed Booby posted:

I think the idea isn't that it makes them less selfish, just that it reduces one particular opportunity to express that selfishness. Like, in the way that keeps guns away from unstable psychos doesn't actually make them stable or non-psycho.

Not opining one way or another, that's just how I took the post

I think the main motivation behind those opposed to giving Ukraine support comes from those people just not giving a gently caress about Ukraine and Europe - America First etc (plus just to spite current administration), rather than genius psyop psychomasters from Russia making them believe all that

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

Ynglaur posted:

https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/with-a-year-long-cr-a-real-possibility-the-service-under-secretaries-sound-the-alarm/

This is an interesting article if you think through the implications for Ukraine. Russia's intelligence operation to capture the US Republican party has been so successful, it is effectively preventing the US from replenishing its own munition stocks and starting new programs. Without the ability to replenish munitions, the US has less to give Ukraine. When we will in the West wake the gently caress up and start hard-closing network lines to/from Russia? It's not like the Internet broadcasts in the magical Aether. It's mostly still physical fiber and copper wires on the ground.

"we should do our own version of russia's 'sovereign internet' nonsense" is not a take i expected to see

cutting the literal physical links isn't really viable or effective. you'd need to convince every country on the border of russia to do this, and good luck convincing say, belarus, kazakhstan, or china to do this (okay, in practice i don't think anyone is routing broader internet traffic through china for a variety of reasons, but you could). even if you did, we literally do broadcast the internet through the magical aether, that's what wifi and cellular data are. we don't use it for backhaul because fiber is way faster and more reliable, but you can certainly set up links with enough bandwidth to run twitter bots

geoip blocks also aren't a great protection against most any determined actor, and certainly not one with a well-developed state-funded hacking apparatus (or, yknow, the ability to just get on a plane and manage some servers abroad)

that all said, the internet research agency-esque social media shitposts were never the most effective component of russia's influence ops. sure, buff bernie got trotted out in front of congress to much gnashing of teeth, but mostly because it's easy to point to, despite their having gently caress all reach. something like managing their personal relationship with max blumenthal's media operation has way more impact than the stuff coming direct from russia

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

LifeSunDeath posted:

Navaly funeral looking like one of the biggest anti war protests I've seen in russia.

Putin can use this pretext to close the Prison Gap



(Russian current figures might be slightly lower after tens of thousands of long term prisoners were sent to fight in Ukraine)

fake edit: prisoner rates have declined in both USA and Russia in the last data from 2020, USA had 505 and Russia 363 prisoners/100k people then

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Nenonen posted:

Putin can use this pretext to close the Prison Gap



(Russian current figures might be slightly lower after tens of thousands of long term prisoners were sent to fight in Ukraine)

fake edit: prisoner rates have declined in both USA and Russia in the last data from 2020, USA had 505 and Russia 363 prisoners/100k people then

UK is no data because most people would consider being in the UK a sort of prison

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

steinrokkan posted:

UK is no data because most people would consider being in the UK a sort of prison

Tracks true, same with North Korea and West Sahara :hmmyes:

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?
I'm aware of how networking and the Internet works. My post was shorthand for "cut off Russia from access to American technology and platforms which enables disinformation at large scales." Deny-listing IP address blocks doesn't work very well, and Western countries aren't about to create the Great Wall of the West like China does, so cutting physical access is the next best thing. It wouldn't solve the problem, but we absolutely need to start doing things about disinformation campaigns and widespread takeovers of political parties. Sitting around wringing our hands saying, "I wish people were not so selfish and greedy!" isn't doing anything.

HouseofSuren
Feb 5, 2024

by Pragmatica
or maybe we could have the Fairness Doctrine restored?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairness_doctrine

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!
The fundamental problem is that too many Americans don't perceive it as an attack, which is made much worse by the fact that it's wormed its way into one of the major political parties in a way that it's all being inflected through domestic politics.

Like what do you even do when a hostile foreign power wants to elect a guy partly because he's sympathetic to them but mostly because he's a staggeringly-incompetent moron, and 30% of the country is like "but we want the staggeringly incompetent moron!"

LifeSunDeath
Jan 4, 2007

still gay rights and smoke weed every day
I like how kfc is still openly working in russia, that rebranding poo poo didn't last, they're just nakedly taking terrorist money.


Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
Colonel Sanders would kick Putin's rear end for this.

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

Ynglaur posted:

I'm aware of how networking and the Internet works. My post was shorthand for "cut off Russia from access to American technology and platforms which enables disinformation at large scales."

this is something they do have domestic capacity for though. they may suck at making microchips, but they have plenty of people who know how to build malware, spam, and botnets

we already are attempting to restrict dual-use technology imports, and those efforts have frequently been circumvented despite the comparative ease of restricting the trade of physical goods versus software. 90s "export cryptography" nonsense demonstrated the futility of restricting the latter

FARA tries to impede the more effective influence ops via locals, but it can only do so much, and people who seek "alternative news" are still gonna go watch RT even if you say "hey this is russian state-controlled propaganda". hell, it probably encourages them, in a "that's exactly what the deep state wants you to think so that people don't learn THE TRUTH" way

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Random question. Tiktok served me a video of Ukraine soldiers, no fighting, but at one point it shows these guys getting into a transport and they all had hoses going down their back into pistols they had in hip holsters. What the hell is that? Is it some kind of non-lethal training weapon or something? I took a screenshot so you don't have to suffer the hell app:

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

D-Pad posted:

Random question. Tiktok served me a video of Ukraine soldiers, no fighting, but at one point it shows these guys getting into a transport and they all had hoses going down their back into pistols they had in hip holsters. What the hell is that? Is it some kind of non-lethal training weapon or something? I took a screenshot so you don't have to suffer the hell app:



Probably a way to avoid losing the pistol if they let go?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa


tactilol lanyard

KingaSlipek
Jun 14, 2009
Nothing about the intercepted Bundeswehr conference call?

German TAURUS experts were tasked by the commander of the German air force, Gerhartz, with giving the minister of defense, Pistorius, a little power point presentation on the missile system, particularly about how it could be used in Ukraine, if Scholz were to agree to have it used there. I am not an expert, but I doubt the call is fake because of how positively it describes the Ukrainians and the capabilities of TAURUS as well as the frequent, unnecessary use of English and general flow of conversation .

interesting bits
- they don´t seem to know why Scholz is blocking the use of TAURUS
- two main problems they identify : integrating TAURUS with Ukrainian jets or F16 would take 6 months according to the TAURUS manufacturer.
training Ukrainians would also take around two months (regularly a year)
- to solve this they suggest to rely on the Brits´ expertise with Storm Shadow, to the point of them operating it onsite at the beginning
- so yes, they confirm Brits are already there in Ukraine in a support role and quality control role and previously operating role (but the French are not present in connection with SCALP)
- Brits also offered to assist with TAURUS onsite
- they are very impressed with how PATRIOT is used and how quickly the Ukrainians learned to use it
- discuss how to obfuscate Germany´s role in providing data to the Ukrainians (driving to Poland and handing it over there...) and how it necessitates even longer training
- seem to hint that some Americans are also present in Ukraine with the task of providing data
- there is some nerd talk why TAURUS can actually get to its targets more safely than Storm Shadow, I suppose this is the reason for Scholz blocking it and the Russians leaking the conversation
- they seem certain TAURUS can take out the bridge for good but don´t agree or know how many missiles are required
- Gerhartz confirms PATRIOTs are used to shoot down jets. The call happened before the recent jet kill streak, though

KingaSlipek fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Mar 1, 2024

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Nenonen posted:



tactilol lanyard

Ah ok I thought it looked like an air hose and thought maybe they were nonlethal airsoft of some type for training or something

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






KingaSlipek posted:

Nothing about the intercepted Bundeswehr conference call?

German TAURUS experts were tasked by the commander of the German air force, Gerhartz, with giving the minister of defense, Pistorius, a little power point presentation on the missile system, particularly about how it could be used in Ukraine, if Scholz were to agree to have it used there. I am not an expert, but I doubt the call is fake because of how positively it describes the Ukrainians and the capabilities of TAURUS as well as the frequent, unnecessary use of English and general flow of conversation .

interesting bits
- they don´t seem to know why Scholz is blocking the use of TAURUS
- two main problems they identify : integrating TAURUS with Ukrainian jets or F16 would take 6 months according to the TAURUS manufacturer.
training Ukrainians would also take around two months (regularly a year)
- to solve this they suggest to rely on the Brits´ expertise with Storm Shadow, to the point of them operating it onsite at the beginning
- so yes, they confirm Brits are already there in Ukraine in a support role and quality control role and previously operating role (but the French are not present in connection with SCALP)
- Brits also offered to assist with TAURUS onsite
- they are very impressed with how PATRIOT is used and how quickly the Ukrainians learned to use it
- discuss how to obfuscate Germany´s role in providing data to the Ukrainians (driving to Poland and handing it over there...) and how it necessitates even longer training
- seem to hint that some Americans are also present in Ukraine with the task of providing data
- there is some nerd talk why TAURUS can actually get to its targets more safely than Storm Shadow, I suppose this is the reason for Scholz blocking it and the Russians leaking the conversation
- they seem certain TAURUS can take out the bridge for good but don´t agree or know how many missiles are required
- Gerhartz confirms PATRIOTs are used to shoot down jets. The call happened before the recent jet kill streak, though

What's the source?

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

I won't link it, but it's on Margarita Simonyan's VK page. Before you dismiss it based on that, I've listened to it and there is no way the Russians can fake a German conversation this convincingly. Unfortunately, it appears to be real.

Re: obfuscating a potential role in mission planning, they clearly state that it wouldn't fly.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






beer_war posted:

I won't link it, but it's on Margarita Simonyan's VK page. Before you dismiss it based on that, I've listened to it and there is no way the Russians can fake a German conversation this convincingly. Unfortunately, it appears to be real.

Re: obfuscating a potential role in mission planning, they clearly state that it wouldn't fly.

I merely wanted to listen to it myself. 🙂

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

beer_war posted:

I won't link it, but it's on Margarita Simonyan's VK page. Before you dismiss it based on that, I've listened to it and there is no way the Russians can fake a German conversation this convincingly. Unfortunately, it appears to be real.

Re: obfuscating a potential role in mission planning, they clearly state that it wouldn't fly.

so the ukranians do have patriot missles then probably.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Dapper_Swindler posted:

so the ukranians do have patriot missles then probably.

Yes? That's been known for a long time.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
They have quite a few, judging by how many Russian jets they managed to destroy in the past month. Of course, part of it is that Russia's success near Avdiivka relied heavily on air support, so there were more targets lately, but previously, I think there were issues with getting even a dozen missiles.

Not So Fast
Dec 27, 2007


OneEightHundred posted:

The fundamental problem is that too many Americans don't perceive it as an attack, which is made much worse by the fact that it's wormed its way into one of the major political parties in a way that it's all being inflected through domestic politics.

Like what do you even do when a hostile foreign power wants to elect a guy partly because he's sympathetic to them but mostly because he's a staggeringly-incompetent moron, and 30% of the country is like "but we want the staggeringly incompetent moron!"

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-says-he-prefers-more-predictable-biden-over-trump-2024-02-14/

If you play both sides, you'll never lose.

Russian influence on the Republican party is seriously overblown. Is there any proof of Russian influence on Republican party policy beyond a bunch of Facebook ads from 2016? The Republicans are interested in what they're always interested in - cutting taxes and owning the libs. If they look like anti-war types while doing so, they're happy to do so, they're happy to be hypocrites.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

Not So Fast posted:

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-says-he-prefers-more-predictable-biden-over-trump-2024-02-14/

If you play both sides, you'll never lose.

Russian influence on the Republican party is seriously overblown. Is there any proof of Russian influence on Republican party policy beyond a bunch of Facebook ads from 2016? The Republicans are interested in what they're always interested in - cutting taxes and owning the libs. If they look like anti-war types while doing so, they're happy to do so, they're happy to be hypocrites.

You may not have followed either the hacking of the DNC or the use of Wikileaks or the recent shifts in the case against Hunter Biden...or how the Republicans have handled each of these.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Not So Fast posted:

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-says-he-prefers-more-predictable-biden-over-trump-2024-02-14/

If you play both sides, you'll never lose.

Russian influence on the Republican party is seriously overblown. Is there any proof of Russian influence on Republican party policy beyond a bunch of Facebook ads from 2016? The Republicans are interested in what they're always interested in - cutting taxes and owning the libs. If they look like anti-war types while doing so, they're happy to do so, they're happy to be hypocrites.

Russia famously did try to do this with NRA.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/russian-spy-who-infiltrated-the-nra-to-influence-us-gun-activists-released-from-jail/i4cl7f6i7

How successful Butina was and whether there are still some embedded Russian spies left there and elsewhere is debatable.

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

Only the Republicans are obstructing aid to Ukraine. And Trump specifically is very sympathetic to Russia and hostile to Ukraine and NATO and has made all kinds of statements that he would consider abandoning NATO altogether. Getting Trump into office and any other GOP majorities would be a huge victory for Putin.

Putin's statement about Biden is just bullshit gaslighting.

HouseofSuren
Feb 5, 2024

by Pragmatica
Yeah, no, far more American's are not your ally than just a few Republicans.

LifeSunDeath
Jan 4, 2007

still gay rights and smoke weed every day

D-Pad posted:

Random question. Tiktok served me a video of Ukraine soldiers, no fighting, but at one point it shows these guys getting into a transport and they all had hoses going down their back into pistols they had in hip holsters. What the hell is that? Is it some kind of non-lethal training weapon or something? I took a screenshot so you don't have to suffer the hell app:



it's to supply a steady drip of pistol fluid.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
i don't doubt there's at least some level of russian influence on the gop, but i wonder if the larger part is the increasing partisanship on every issue. if the democrats are fairly united behind an issue that by itself gives a certain impetus for republicans to oppose it

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

i don't doubt there's at least some level of russian influence on the gop, but i wonder if the larger part is the increasing partisanship on every issue. if the democrats are fairly united behind an issue that by itself gives a certain impetus for republicans to oppose it

They're more partisan because Trump is draining all the funds from the republican party on his lawsuits. This has been shown in filings for both RNC and Trump. Plus Russia was a major source of their funding directly, so of course it's a leopards eating my face scenario.

https://www.axios.com/2023/02/18/gop-operative-sentenced-scheme-russian-money-trump-campaign
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/13/us/politics/russia-election-interference.html

Cocoa Ninja
Mar 3, 2007

KingaSlipek posted:

Nothing about the intercepted Bundeswehr conference call?

German TAURUS experts were tasked by the commander of the German air force, Gerhartz, with giving the minister of defense, Pistorius, a little power point presentation on the missile system, particularly about how it could be used in Ukraine, if Scholz were to agree to have it used there. I am not an expert, but I doubt the call is fake because of how positively it describes the Ukrainians and the capabilities of TAURUS as well as the frequent, unnecessary use of English and general flow of conversation .

interesting bits
- they don´t seem to know why Scholz is blocking the use of TAURUS
- two main problems they identify : integrating TAURUS with Ukrainian jets or F16 would take 6 months according to the TAURUS manufacturer.
training Ukrainians would also take around two months (regularly a year)
- to solve this they suggest to rely on the Brits´ expertise with Storm Shadow, to the point of them operating it onsite at the beginning
- so yes, they confirm Brits are already there in Ukraine in a support role and quality control role and previously operating role (but the French are not present in connection with SCALP)
- Brits also offered to assist with TAURUS onsite
- they are very impressed with how PATRIOT is used and how quickly the Ukrainians learned to use it
- discuss how to obfuscate Germany´s role in providing data to the Ukrainians (driving to Poland and handing it over there...) and how it necessitates even longer training
- seem to hint that some Americans are also present in Ukraine with the task of providing data
- there is some nerd talk why TAURUS can actually get to its targets more safely than Storm Shadow, I suppose this is the reason for Scholz blocking it and the Russians leaking the conversation
- they seem certain TAURUS can take out the bridge for good but don´t agree or know how many missiles are required
- Gerhartz confirms PATRIOTs are used to shoot down jets. The call happened before the recent jet kill streak, though

Very interesting, thanks for posting.

Any idea why they think Taurus might take out the bridge when storm shadow couldn’t? Wikipedia says bomb size of the two is similar, so maybe it’s in reference to getting through defenses better, which you noted?

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


I would imagine it could be shot down like any other large missile? If Ukraine is able to take out the Kerch Bridge I don't know if that'd win the war but it'd seriously complicate things...

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






beer_war posted:

I won't link it, but it's on Margarita Simonyan's VK page. Before you dismiss it based on that, I've listened to it and there is no way the Russians can fake a German conversation this convincingly. Unfortunately, it appears to be real.

Re: obfuscating a potential role in mission planning, they clearly state that it wouldn't fly.

Circling back on this: The Russians are the physical embodiment of the boy who cried wolf. Whenever Russia claims something you should always assume that they're lying. They might actually be telling the truth sometimes, but you should always first assume

I went to look for the audio (which was very annoying, I can't recommend visiting Simonyan's VK page to anyone) and had a listen. It does sound convincing at first listen. But it's also immediately obvious that this is an operation by Russian intelligence, and should therefore be scrutinized very very carefully before drawing any conclusions.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

Cocoa Ninja posted:

Very interesting, thanks for posting.

Any idea why they think Taurus might take out the bridge when storm shadow couldn’t? Wikipedia says bomb size of the two is similar, so maybe it’s in reference to getting through defenses better, which you noted?

The Taurus has a way cooler name for its warhead.

MEPHISTO (multi-effect penetrator highly sophisticated and target optimised) versus Storm Shadow's BROACH ( Bomb Royal Ordnance Augmented Charge)

It may also be more effective but until used that's hard to say. In any case, hitting the bridge to take it out will require a lot of missiles to be fired in one attack, more than Ukraine can currently do with its Su-24s.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


spankmeister posted:

Circling back on this: The Russians are the physical embodiment of the boy who cried wolf. Whenever Russia claims something you should always assume that they're lying. They might actually be telling the truth sometimes, but you should always first assume

I went to look for the audio (which was very annoying, I can't recommend visiting Simonyan's VK page to anyone) and had a listen. It does sound convincing at first listen. But it's also immediately obvious that this is an operation by Russian intelligence, and should therefore be scrutinized very very carefully before drawing any conclusions.
The German Ministry of Defense is assuming that it is authentic and the military intelligence agency is investigating it.

It was a WebEx call, with one of the participants being connected via phone from Singapore. There is now quite a lot of concern, as apparently a lot of phone conferences in the Bundeswehr are done via WebEx, as it is easier to use than the secure communications the Bundeswehr has. Nevertheless, because of the content of the call, it should have used the secure lines.

Heads will roll. The question will be how many, and how far up the hierarchy it will go. One of the participants was the head of the German air force.

Link to the article by Spiegel.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
i loving hate the webex platform, so this justifies my priors

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






DTurtle posted:

The German Ministry of Defense is assuming that it is authentic and the military intelligence agency is investigating it.

It was a WebEx call, with one of the participants being connected via phone from Singapore. There is now quite a lot of concern, as apparently a lot of phone conferences in the Bundeswehr are done via WebEx, as it is easier to use than the secure communications the Bundeswehr has. Nevertheless, because of the content of the call, it should have used the secure lines.

Heads will roll. The question will be how many, and how far up the hierarchy it will go. One of the participants was the head of the German air force.

Link to the article by Spiegel.

Thank you, that's enlightening.

The best course of action for Germany right now would be to send Taurus immediately, without delay.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

i loving hate the webex platform, so this justifies my priors

Absolutely not an emptyquote. gently caress webex.

spankmeister posted:

Thank you, that's enlightening.

The best course of action for Germany right now would be to send Taurus immediately, without delay.

:hmmyes: Webex HQ doesn't have GBAD cover as far as I know.

Antigravitas fucked around with this message at 10:17 on Mar 2, 2024

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GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
the only organization i've ever dealt with that uses webex is caltrans, and that might not mean much to most folks, but it's actually the perfect encapsulation of what's wrong with both of them

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