(Thread IKs:
weg, Toxic Mental)
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kazil posted:He's awake and he's mad Lmao, no one gonna point out “Crooked Joe got off Scott Free”?
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Mar 2, 2024 16:52
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ianskate posted:Ah yes, millennials overwhelming voting for the guy and party who will continue to do things that benefit the wealthy, and not the unwealthy millennials, who have been continuously thrown under the bus financially since 2008, after "doing everything right" that the same generation as him told us would make all of our dreams come true. Listen, under Trump my Avacado toast was $10, and under Biden it’s almost $20. I want to go back to Trump because then my Avacado toast will be $10 again. 
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Mar 2, 2024 16:52
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kazil posted:
party over person - they might want someone other than Trump, but pick him if Biden is the only other choice
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Mar 2, 2024 16:53
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Hollismason posted:I'll eat a loving shoe if millenials overwhelmingly vote for Trump. Not that I doubt you, but this is a post I'll remember, just in case.
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Mar 2, 2024 16:53
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Rod Hoofhearted posted:In a way it makes sense. Trump’s goal is to dodge his court cases, therefore his interest is in winning the presidency at all costs. He doesn’t care about down ballot at all. The funny thing is, trumps the weakest part of the ticket in a lot of states. Like I can see some moderate voting for McCormick and Biden or whatever in PA. Trumps poison to anyone outside the chud bubble.
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Mar 2, 2024 16:54
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Rod Hoofhearted posted:Listen, under Trump my Avacado toast was $10, and under Biden it’s almost $20. I want to go back to Trump because then my Avacado toast will be $10 again. You can thank Joe Brandon for that. Maybe if he didn't let in all those illegals carrying overpriced avocados! At least gas was cheap during covid lockdowns. Thank you, working hard!
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Mar 2, 2024 16:55
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ymgve posted:party over person - they might want someone other than Trump, but pick him if Biden is the only other choice A rate of >97% though doesn't seem realistic. And it's odd that people that didn't vote in 2020 would go mostly to Trump. Anyway, Idaho is having a caucus for Republicans today, and it's like super early in the day.
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Mar 2, 2024 16:55
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Dapper_Swindler posted:The funny thing is, trumps the weakest part of the ticket in a lot of states. Like I can see some moderate voting for McCormick and Biden or whatever in PA. Trumps poison to anyone outside the chud bubble. The calculation by a lot of people who backed non-Trump candidates is that anyone else would beat Joe Biden. Anyone else could run on Biden’s age, inflation, cost of living, etc. and enough Biden voters would be apathetic enough to just not bother. But Trump is believed to drive Dem turnout. And some Republican campaign types think Trump is the only one who can lose to Biden right now. And I hope they’re right!
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Mar 2, 2024 16:58
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kazil posted:A rate of >97% though doesn't seem realistic. And it's odd that people that didn't vote in 2020 would go mostly to Trump. Why is it weird that most people who would prefer Haley in a primary would still vote for Trump over Biden? Primaries are completely different contests than general elections. They have different motivations and strategies. Trying to draw any conclusions about the one from the other is extremely tenuous at best.
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Mar 2, 2024 16:59
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Vampire Panties posted:Do you see how a 4-5% margin of error means that, even inside their own poll, Biden could win overwhelmingly? That's a pretty standard margin of error. 4% is on the low side, if anything. The rest of your objections are sorta suspect, too.
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Mar 2, 2024 17:01
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Wingnut Ninja posted:Why is it weird that most people who would prefer Haley in a primary would still vote for Trump over Biden? Exit polls show a large amount of Haley votes are actually protest votes against Trump. Exit polls show 1 in 5 Republicans saying they won't vote for Trump in the general. I know most of them will anyway, but 97% is absurdly high.
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Mar 2, 2024 17:02
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kw0134 posted:I honestly have no idea whats going on with polls. Actual issues polls are alright, they've predicted that Ohio would protect abortion and legalize weed nearly on the dot, but they've also overpredicted Trump's showings in the primaries, even polls taken practically the eve of the vote. I feel like there is something fundamentally wrong with either the sampling or the weighting, polls can't be fully discounted but something's absolutely off. And it's weird because primary votes should be straightforward, your sampling group should be more homogeneous to begin with so there's less of a need to rejigger for weighting nonsense. Yeah, it's weird. Yet another system that can't deal with "TRUMP".
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Mar 2, 2024 17:03
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Lol, I love goons. One or two dumbasses saying something always turn into everyone in the thread was saying it.
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Mar 2, 2024 17:04
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OB-GYN Kenobi posted:Not that I doubt you, but this is a post I'll remember, just in case. You the CEO of Tell Tale games?
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Mar 2, 2024 17:07
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Regrettable posted:Lol, I love goons. One or two dumbasses saying something always turn into everyone in the thread was saying it. Also this thread has been more consistently correct about stuff than um other threads. So yeah I am not worried yet. Just go out and volunteer and vote and etc.
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Mar 2, 2024 17:08
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Rod Hoofhearted posted:The calculation by a lot of people who backed non-Trump candidates is that anyone else would beat Joe Biden. Anyone else could run on Biden’s age, inflation, cost of living, etc. and enough Biden voters would be apathetic enough to just not bother. I think Ron’s in a similar boat to trump. But i do think Haley has a much much much better shot at winning.
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Mar 2, 2024 17:12
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SonOfGhostDad posted:we're believing polls now? AlwaysHaveBeen.meme
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Mar 2, 2024 17:13
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Hollismason posted:I'll eat a loving shoe if millenials overwhelmingly vote for Trump. Conservative millennials are the only millennials stupid enough to answer the phone or click an email survey
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Mar 2, 2024 17:14
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Polling post-2016 is basically just goofs and games, and you'll be happier when you realize that the only reason new, dramatic polls keep popping up is to prop up the datametrics industry that hosed up the Clinton thing so badly that they became basically irrelevant. The goal isn't to produce accurate polls to give you information, the goal is to produce polls that get you to talk about the polls, because it's the only way that any of these pollsters will be able to keep their industry alive.
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Mar 2, 2024 17:14
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Azuth0667 posted:You'd be better off trying to figure out what the dumbest result is. That's what's going to happen. Recounts in at least two swing states, litigation takes one or both results into late December (maybe to the SC?) . Both candidates die before it's resolved.
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Mar 2, 2024 17:16
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kazil posted:He's awake and he's mad Has anyone had some psychologist have a look at these for a professional opinion or two?
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Mar 2, 2024 17:19
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kazil posted:And it's odd that people that didn't vote in 2020 would go mostly to Trump. Trump benefited from a huge surge of non-voter support in 2020, maybe the pollster is trying to recreate that? Anecdotally, I’d say that’s not likely to be repeated, just because a fascist incumbent suddenly activated a swath of non-voters in one election doesn’t make that repeatable in future elections. Once a non-voter votes, they’re not a non-voter anymore. As for the surge in non-voter support in 2020, it could be genuine, or it could be due to massive voter outreach/get-to-the-polls efforts funded by Trump’s 2020 “Death Star” campaign war chest, or it could be something more questionable that Trump was able to leverage as President (the equivalent of having DeJoy cripple the post offices). It remains to be seen if he can do it again, although his primary turnout numbers look pretty robust.
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Mar 2, 2024 17:19
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Hopefully by election time people become a little more used to the new pricing normal inflation unfortunately gave us. Because having 51% of respondents describe the economy as "poor" with such low unemployment, solid GDP and wage growth, etc., is tough.
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Mar 2, 2024 17:19
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marshalljim posted:Hopefully by election time people become a little more used to the new pricing normal inflation unfortunately gave us. Because having 51% of respondents describe the economy as "poor" with such low unemployment, solid GDP and wage growth, etc., is tough. It’s a real problem, but not one that’s going to be solved by Republicans. Unfortunately, voters don’t always see it that way.
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Mar 2, 2024 17:25
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marshalljim posted:Yeah, it's weird. Yet another system that can't deal with "TRUMP".
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Mar 2, 2024 17:25
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NGL I kinda miss when we had two candidates presenting alternate visions for the country and not having one where his entire campaign plank is "Voting for me gums up my prison sentence" and that guy is doing fine in the polls.
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Mar 2, 2024 17:29
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It's like the uncertainty principle, the more closely you try to observe something the more your observations are skewed.
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Mar 2, 2024 17:29
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 ‘Trump Bucks’ promise wealth for MAGA loyalty. Some lose thousands. quote:In the recesses of the internet where some of Donald Trump’s most fervent supporters stoke conspiracies and plot his return to the White House, suspected con artists have been mining their disappointment over the last presidential election for gold.
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Mar 2, 2024 17:30
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TyrsHTML posted:980 people with only 823 respondents is a statistically insignificant number that cant actually be used to predict anything. One of the major problems with these polls is for anything to be accurate you would need thousands of responedents, but almost no one gives a poo poo about answering polling questions. https://www.calculator.net/sample-size-calculator.html Vampire Panties posted:Do you see how a 4-5% margin of error means that, even inside their own poll, Biden could win overwhelmingly? do you think 33% of the general populace is independant? Do you agree that age group 35-44 will vote overwhelmingly for Pmurt? Do you think more than 3% of the voting population speaks Spanish as their primary language? Yes but this margin is pretty typical. It also means Biden could lose even worse. do you think 33% of the general populace is independant? That seems about in line with how people self-identify and what options they're given  Do you agree that age group 35-44 will vote overwhelmingly for Pmurt?  maybe?Do you think more than 3% of the voting population speaks Spanish as their primary language? Sure but that doesn't mean they wouldn't answer a call from an unkown number in English. I'm not a native speaker but I'll aswer the phone in the language I expect the caller to speak. Look I'm not saying that this poll is a 100% accurate prediction of the upcoming elections, or that any of the current polls are. But it's pretty frustraing that anything showing unfavorable resutls gets nitpicked over fairly typical sample sizes and polling methods and dismissed. I do hope and think that all the strong performances the dems have been pulling recently will translate into a safe re-election but... this is way too loving close for comfort and assuming that Biden will sail through re-election relies on millions of chuds not coming out to vote for their GEOTUS despite the 100 indictments and Dems not sitting it out because "Biden old, Big Mac is 40% more expensive and he didn't cancel enough student debt  ". Voters are very stupid.
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Mar 2, 2024 17:32
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marshalljim posted:Hopefully by election time people become a little more used to the new pricing normal inflation unfortunately gave us. Because having 51% of respondents describe the economy as "poor" with such low unemployment, solid GDP and wage growth, etc., is tough. The challenge facing Americans is that corporate greed and end-stage capitalism is making for a “strong” economy while we’re hearing horror stories from workers about capitalists doing poo poo like nakedly busting unions, mass corporate layoffs to achieve earnings-per-share goals for shareholders, and poo poo like ghost jobs and crap like that. The NLRB was hosed up and gutted by Trump on purpose to make men like him richer, and it’s the whole reason why we’re dealing with this poo poo today. The thing is that Americans overwhelmingly blame whoever is in office at the time of these issues rather than the people who created them, like a time bomb set by the prior administration. Trump actively sabotaged Biden's admin by making a disastrous plan to pull out of Afghanistan, so it’s no surprise that the labor market is hosed as well. It’s just that we need Americans to be smart enough to recognize where the issues came from and  lmao and haha, Americans are way too loving stupid to do that.
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Mar 2, 2024 17:34
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B B posted:Polls aren't predictive yet, and a lot can change before November. NYTimes/Siena is one of the better pollsters according to the 538 rankings though: lol a nate silver joint.
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Mar 2, 2024 17:35
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lol 800 people polled by cellphone, polling companies have to just make up numbers now
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Mar 2, 2024 17:40
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True Patriots won't believe the lamestream's media attempt to lock them out of a deal of a lifetime!
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Mar 2, 2024 17:48
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kazil posted:He's awake and he's mad Am I reading this wrong, or is he accidentally thanking those against him at the start of this textual diarrhea?
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Mar 2, 2024 17:53
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Wee Bairns posted:Am I reading this wrong, or is he accidentally thanking those against him at the start of this textual diarrhea? Yes, he no English write good
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Mar 2, 2024 17:55
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These are going to be like Nazi memorabilia in 40 years.
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Mar 2, 2024 17:58
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Rod Hoofhearted posted:Trump benefited from a huge surge of non-voter support in 2020, maybe the pollster is trying to recreate that? Anecdotally, I’d say that’s not likely to be repeated, just because a fascist incumbent suddenly activated a swath of non-voters in one election doesn’t make that repeatable in future elections. Once a non-voter votes, they’re not a non-voter anymore. Yeah, what Trump has succeeded in doing in the last two elections is getting a lot of so-called "unreliable" voters out from under their rocks and voting reliably for him. I think this is part of the reason why polling underestimated his support in both 2016 and 2020, because the polls are weighted to screen these voters out (not sure if that applies to 2024 polls, though: giving a higher weight to "unreliable voters" to compensate for the misses of the last two elections might be one reason for his strong polling atm, as you say). The Republicans have been losing support among certain demographics (suburban women, educated people, the 18-29s, etc.), but he's compensated for that by bringing in a motley bunch of voters who idolize Trump, but who otherwise have no coherent political ideology or policy agenda. In the past, if you met someone who believed that "both parties are the same", that "politicians don't care about me", that "the world is being run by Jewish lizardmen", etc., then you'd assume that these people either wouldn't be voting or that they'd be voting in fairly random, unpredictable ways. In 2024, you know exactly who these people will be voting for. He somehow managed to find an extra 12 million people to vote for him the 2020 election as compared to 2016, and I'm guessing most of those came from exactly that source. Who the gently caress knows how deep that well runs. Turnout will be key again. It's worth nothing that 2020 had the highest turnout percentage of any election since 1900 (which was before women could vote) and I don't see any sign of Trump's base cracking yet. If the so-called "moderates" or "independents" didn't abandon him in 2020, then they're not going to abandon him in 2024 (convictions pending), and the rest of his base wouldn't abandon him even if he shat on the American flag and called Jesus a pussy. So Biden needs to get a similar turnout in 2024 to the one he got in 2020 to beat Trump, and I don't think the enthusiasm for him is anywhere near where it needs to be at the moment. Fortunately, of course, a lot of people would crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump, irrespective of who his opponent is, but I don't see much evidence of that in the polling yet. The enthusiasm gap will close once the Biden campaign kicks off, of course, but it doesn't change the fact that Biden clearly appears to be trailing on that metric at the moment. This isn't dooming, just a warning against complacency. Blurred fucked around with this message at 18:05 on Mar 2, 2024 |
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Mar 2, 2024 18:03
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Beefed Owl posted:Dog chat would be way better than all the weird poo poo that has happened in the last 20 pages. I remember that at the time legitimate military and technology journalists being so stupefied by it that they legitimately couldn't tell if Trump was just wildly misinterpreting what a stealth system is because he's an idiot, or just casually revealing that the USAF had a functional optical camouflage system because he was opsec nightmare and would just blurt out otherwise classified poo poo to try and impress people to stroke his ego. Very lol
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Mar 2, 2024 18:06
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“not coming, like ME!”
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Mar 2, 2024 18:07
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Biden hasn't even legitimately started campaigning in earnest yet either. Where as Trumps been steadily campaigning for at least 6 months now.
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Mar 2, 2024 18:08
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