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SMCI is joining the SP500 on March 18
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Mar 4, 2024 16:56
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Yeah seems like its tail wags dog this time around
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Mar 4, 2024 19:52
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UnfurledSails posted:SMCI is joining the SP500 on March 18 What the hell is going on with SMCI anyways? Pretty much all the news I remember about them has been a series of scandals, problems, and export violations but their stock is up 5000% from when I last looked at it
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Mar 4, 2024 23:26
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The junk collector posted:What the hell is going on with SMCI anyways? Pretty much all the news I remember about them has been a series of scandals, problems, and export violations but their stock is up 5000% from when I last looked at it ai ai ai ai ai quote:In June 2023, Supermicro saw increased demand for its large language model optimized AI systems, featuring NVIDIA chips.[42]
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Mar 4, 2024 23:49
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Apple talking up their new Macbook Air M3 as being great for AI. We're probably only a few months away from Apple following Microsoft into talking about AI nonstop. Will be remarkable if we don't see AI everywhere at WWDC imo.
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Mar 5, 2024 17:50
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Garfu posted:I bought A LOT of NVDA puts yesterday for September so expect that update in a couple months! I've never done options before but robinhood makes it easy and complicated with all of the options (heh) for options like iron condors and what not at the same time. If Im understanding right, the closer the value youre betting on it to drop to, compared to the current value, the less profit youll make, and the inverse, the farther you expect it to fall, the more profit youll make, but what advantages beyond having more time do you have buying puts far off into the future? seems like betting if nvidia will fall to 800 at the end of the week costs the same as betting it will be at 800 by september. is this right?
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Mar 5, 2024 19:10
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kneelbeforezog posted:I've never done options before but robinhood makes it easy and complicated with all of the options (heh) for options like iron condors and what not at the same time. If Im understanding right, the closer the value youre betting on it to drop to, compared to the current value, the less profit youll make, and the inverse, the farther you expect it to fall, the more profit youll make, but what advantages beyond having more time do you have buying puts far off into the future? seems like betting if nvidia will fall to 800 at the end of the week costs the same as betting it will be at 800 by september. is this right? Someone else with more actual options knowledge and number crunching can chime in but I just buy stuff far out cause there is inherently less risk and I'm patient due to my warchest situation. I've found LEAPS or longer term options to be less stressfull day to day and I'm happy with longer term returns rather than get-rich-quicks.
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Mar 5, 2024 19:55
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Garfu posted:Someone else with more actual options knowledge and number crunching can chime in but I just buy stuff far out cause there is inherently less risk and I'm patient due to my warchest situation. I've found LEAPS or longer term options to be less stressfull day to day and I'm happy with longer term returns rather than get-rich-quicks. I like to sell puts ~30 days out, on thinly traded stuff where it seems there is some potential mispricing on top of the time value / theta decay. 
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Mar 5, 2024 20:10
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Baddog posted:I like to sell puts ~30 days out, on thinly traded stuff where it seems there is some potential mispricing on top of the time value / theta decay. This theta decay graph is misleading because theta decay is actually significantly different based on if you are ITM vs ATM vs OTM. I see a lot of people, especially on reddit selling far OTM 45 DTE and sighting this theta decay graph not realizing they are not getting that decay at all. Not even close. xgalaxy fucked around with this message at 20:32 on Mar 5, 2024 |
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Mar 5, 2024 20:29
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xgalaxy posted:This theta decay graph is misleading because theta decay is actually significantly different based on if you are ITM vs ATM vs OTM. Ahh that's a very good point and catch, it's all relative. I get sucked into just thinking about it only for the ones I've been trading lately. This shows how as you go deep OTM, the curve will actually bend the other way, and it takes forever to get the last chunk. Can always be a lightning strike in the last few days and the OTM becomes ITM, so the last bit of extrinsic value persists. 
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Mar 5, 2024 21:01
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Femtosecond posted:We're probably only a few months away from Apple following Microsoft into talking about AI nonstop. AI is a huge boon to the tech industry, it's something genuinely new to sell to customers that they don't have and might just be useful. I guarantee you the next version of Windows will be all about AI, AI, AI...
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Mar 5, 2024 21:08
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Gucci Loafers posted:AI is a huge boon to the tech industry, it's something genuinely new to sell to customers that they don't have and might just be useful. I guarantee you the next version of Windows will be all about AI, AI, AI... They're aggressively pushing Copilot right now, and since it's an Edge feature, they don't even have to wait for people to upgrade versions of windows, they'll just force you to have it. Although I'm sure it'll be an un-removable core part of the next version of Windows, but that doesn't generate revenue really. Much more important than the OS to MS is Azure - MS's cloud platform - and all the major cloud platforms are whole hog into AI workloads. https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/solutions/ai
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Mar 5, 2024 21:15
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But theta is the price you pay per day to keep the position open (or get paid if you are short).What matters more is implied volatility and expected move for how an option will be priced when it moves. Theta assumes the stock stays the same price, theta will change also as the stock moves! The real winners in options are the sellers, you can use them for leverage but what you are actually doing is betting the seller didn't price it right not that the stock moves! It's possible to be right but the options are just overpriced. TastyTrade has this thing called IVR (Implied Volatile ranking) it's the percentile for that stock's IV for a rolling year. Their rule they recommend is do not buy if it's over 15, that's sell option land if it's above 15. NVDA is currently 50.  You can even chart it with NVDA.IRV on tastytrade (you can't do this elsewhere that I know of it's their special sauce) -4h candles YTD IVR on NVDA  NVDA is primed to go up, but that looks like options are probably priced fairly.
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Mar 5, 2024 21:18
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Gucci Loafers posted:AI is a huge boon to the tech industry, it's something genuinely new to sell to customers that they don't have and might just be useful. I guarantee you the next version of Windows will be all about AI, AI, AI... Microsoft is already mandating a new "copilot" keyboard key on new PCs with Windows pre installed Wish we could get a "push to talk" key for video conferencing but apparently that concept is too complex for consumers who have never used walkie talkies
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Mar 5, 2024 23:13
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Hadlock posted:Microsoft is already mandating a new "copilot" keyboard key on new PCs with Windows pre installed it's dumb as hell. if they are loving up my keyboard (again) they better be providing a copy of MS Flight Simulator and a joystick with every copilot keyboard
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Mar 5, 2024 23:14
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pmchem posted:it's dumb as hell. if they are loving up my keyboard (again) they better be providing a copy of MS Flight Simulator and a joystick with every copilot keyboard Going to just remap it with AHK back to alt. I use right alt for control alt delete one handed. You can pry that from my cold dead hands.
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Mar 5, 2024 23:17
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Eh as a shareholder, that's a pretty strong sign of where Microsoft is going with this In five years the o365 workflow is going to look like, "Office, analyze the budget spreadsheet for FY2029. Note we'll be cash flow negative. Write an email to Denise the CFO asking her to advise the board on how to change this" A button for PTT copilot directly wired into o365 + all your spreadsheets is going to do wonders for the management class Edit: mental image of clippy; "hey! It looks like your business is failing! Would you like some help? yes/no" Hadlock fucked around with this message at 23:36 on Mar 5, 2024 |
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Mar 5, 2024 23:30
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oh I'm thinking personal devices, and honestly I'd rather engage the AI with a more traditional button as many programs will have AI this would be like having a dedicated button for "file" "edit" and so on instead of F1-F12 just make F13 standard and default map it to AI in programs.
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Mar 5, 2024 23:39
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Leperflesh posted:They're aggressively pushing Copilot right now, and since it's an Edge feature, they don't even have to wait for people to upgrade versions of windows, they'll just force you to have it. Although I'm sure it'll be an un-removable core part of the next version of Windows, but that doesn't generate revenue really. Absolutely and the next trick is to have Windows OEMs include specific AI-Coprocessors. It has the benefit of allowing them to selling their own custom AI solutions along with the benefit of doing AI/ML on your local device for additional security... and further sync with the Windows/Outlook/XboxLive/etc. eco-system. But all of this is already priced into the market... right?  Hadlock posted:Edit: mental image of clippy; "hey! It looks like your business is failing! Would you like some help? yes/no" It'd be so funny if something terrible like a terrible sales widget is automatically installed on your PC and links you to content by Grant Cardone or Andy Elliott.
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Mar 6, 2024 03:38
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Gucci Loafers posted:Absolutely and the next trick is to have Windows OEMs include specific AI-Coprocessors. It has the benefit of allowing them to selling their own custom AI solutions along with the benefit of doing AI/ML on your local device for additional security... and further sync with the Windows/Outlook/XboxLive/etc. eco-system. So one of the reasons Apple went to their own chips was because they controlled the full hardware and software stack and thus could design custom chips for their poo poo. Can Microsoft really force Dell and Lenovo etc to add custom chips and stuff? Or would we start seeing more fracturing, kinda like how there's Android and then there's Samsung OS or whatever?
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Mar 6, 2024 03:43
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Boris Galerkin posted:
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Mar 6, 2024 03:52
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Gucci Loafers posted:Absolutely and the next trick is to have Windows OEMs include specific AI-Coprocessors. This is like, the whole bull case for Nvidia right? All of Google in your phone, breaking the 25 year advertising monopoly once and for all
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Mar 6, 2024 04:04
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pixaal posted:just make F13 standard and default map it to AI in programs. You leave my voice chat key out of this.
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Mar 6, 2024 04:36
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Boris Galerkin posted:Can Microsoft really force Dell and Lenovo etc to add custom chips and stuff? Not really, but both Intel and AMD are including AI coprocessors in their CPU SoCs. I would expect them to get much faster over the next few years, since the stuff coming out now was designed well before ChatGPT and the current AI boom. The stuff that is coming out now is very much covid-era "we can blur the background of your zoom call very power efficiently" branded as "AI". Either way, for the best AI models, more capable CPU accelerators are not necessarily going to enable running them locally since they need large amounts of high speed memory to be performant.
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Mar 6, 2024 04:49
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drk posted:for the best AI models, more capable CPU accelerators are not necessarily going to enable running them locally since they need large amounts of high speed memory to be performant. 24gb of laptop grade memory ought to be enough for anyone™ -
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Mar 6, 2024 05:07
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Boris Galerkin posted:So one of the reasons Apple went to their own chips was because they controlled the full hardware and software stack and thus could design custom chips for their poo poo. Seems to me this would be the thing that really gets Apple to lift off again, if they show up at WWDC showing off some amazing AI driven features built into their iWork suite, showing off the APIs available to developers and then *one last thing* saying it's all locally driven due the power of our Apple M3 chips etc. Then pivot to talking about how important privacy is, highlighting how every other AI solution is phoning home.
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Mar 6, 2024 22:24
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Problem is nobody uses Apple's suite. Maybe the ceo and failsons use it but mostly everyone else is all in on office suite. Guess I know a few professors who used apple pages.
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Mar 6, 2024 23:42
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Femtosecond posted:Seems to me this would be the thing that really gets Apple to lift off again, if they show up at WWDC showing off some amazing AI driven features built into their iWork suite, showing off the APIs available to developers and then *one last thing* saying it's all locally driven due the power of our Apple M3 chips etc. I think in five years that level of technology on an M3 processor might be technically feasible. It might be feasible on dedicated consumer silicon by wwdc '25 but I'm extremely skeptical it'll be ready by '24. We (humans) are building an entirely new technology from scratch we're still in the Cambrian explosion phase, and there's still a bunch of breakthroughs to happen, I think.
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Mar 7, 2024 07:26
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Hawaiian Electric? Looks like there's a new Sheriff in town.
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Mar 7, 2024 16:46
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Hadlock posted:I think in five years that level of technology on an M3 processor might be technically feasible. It might be feasible on dedicated consumer silicon by wwdc '25 but I'm extremely skeptical it'll be ready by '24. We (humans) are building an entirely new technology from scratch we're still in the Cambrian explosion phase, and there's still a bunch of breakthroughs to happen, I think. Mechanically, "AI" like a GPT or LLM are super simple, just very large in terms of resource consumption and even then can be compressed aggressively with some performance loss. The hard part is in the resources to train one to be useful.
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Mar 7, 2024 18:12
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Yeah I'm running an LLM on my local work laptop (M3 pro iWhatever) and it's largely replaced Google for 80% of my needs (using "ollama" if you want to try it, although I'm sure better options exist now). I have zero need or desire to train my own model locally except maybe one time as a learning experiment I would imagine parsing 10gb of PDF/Excel files/sql tables (or whatever your workload looks like) as "context window" may stretch things beyond what is currently possible on consumer hardware. Swapping nvme to ram is crazy fast but it's still not that fast "It depends" I guess. If I want to convert imperial to metric, or find out where Kalamazoo is, or give me a list of project names or write a medium complexity bash script I can already do that on my laptop. Beyond that I need to talk to a commercial AI service
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Mar 7, 2024 20:01
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Cosmic Web posted:Hawaiian Electric? Looks like there's a new Sheriff in town. Power company tries to burn Texas to the ground (XEL +1.62)
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Mar 7, 2024 21:55
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They'll get to increase rates to pay for damages and then keep the rates high permanently. Super bullish.
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Mar 7, 2024 21:57
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The price on some of these utilities does seem low, considering their guaranteed return on almost anything that can be considered an "investment". I guess somehow the returns on XEL haven't been great over the last couple years though. But at 50 with a 4.5% dividend? Any other utilities with better "arrangements" than XEL out there? Colorado seems to rubber stamp almost all their rate increase requests, but I'm not familiar with how they work in the other markets. I'm guessing from how it went down last time, we're going to end up paying for Texas' fine on them.
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Mar 7, 2024 22:10
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Shear Modulus posted:They'll get to increase rates to pay for damages and then keep the rates high permanently. Super bullish. Yeah all an investor has to do is look at how PG&E makes out every time they burn down / explode part of California and it seems like a no-brainer.
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Mar 7, 2024 22:45
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I remember being on LANs in the 90s, and this little beauty here, which was the pride of a friend of mine, sendt the whole network crashing in an hourly basis. It was a truly gem within tech.
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Mar 8, 2024 13:31
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Anyone else with DIS shares voting in this big ol proxy fight I think I'm just gonna vote the white card. These other funds apparently have some "interesting" ideas like using AI to create characters and poo poo lol
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Mar 10, 2024 04:15
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DeadFatDuckFat posted:Anyone else with DIS shares voting in this big ol proxy fight I don't have shares but am interested, what's the proxy fight about?
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Mar 10, 2024 14:34
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Heard about it from someone who works at Disney but I think this article summarizes it too: https://www.reuters.com/technology/disney-goes-offensive-proxy-battle-with-activist-nelson-peltz-2024-02-27/ It sounds like one group of rich dudes want to put their rich buddies on the board, and another group of rich dudes don't want to let those guys put their buddies on the board, and all the people involved are courting individual investors to cast their votes for them. E: I have no stake in this but that "activist investor Nelson Peltz" guy is on the board of Wendy's who just got attention for that whole surge pricing thing. Boris Galerkin fucked around with this message at 14:59 on Mar 10, 2024 |
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Mar 10, 2024 14:52
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A part of this proxy fight has to do with Disney being too "woke" and fallout from Florida poo poo.
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Mar 10, 2024 17:18
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