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zoux posted:It sucks that Lee and Porter split the progressive vote and handed it to Schiff. This is awful analysis considering that Schiff so far has almost half a million more votes than Lee and Porter combined. Lee and Porter together don’t even match the Republican. Voters preferred Schiff to either Lee or Porter it seems. Lesson number five million or so on how the Internet is not real life. Ogmius815 fucked around with this message at 16:06 on Mar 6, 2024 |
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Mar 6, 2024 16:00
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First the centrist dems drop out to screw over Bernie, now they don't even split the vote to begin with! 
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Mar 6, 2024 16:08
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Go go…leftist Voltron?
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Mar 6, 2024 16:12
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Crows Turn Off posted:In other news, Trump wants Israel to wipe Gaza off the planet. How long until he starts suggesting Israel just nukes Gaza off the map and doesn't know (well, okay, doesn't care is more accurate) how terrible a suggestion that is for Israel. "Israel needs to use a final solution, people, we love our final solutions. They have bombs, nuclear bombs, some of the best nuclear bombs in the world. They come to me with tears in their eyes about how much they want to use the bombs, but they can't because Biden says no. When I'm in charge, they'll have all the nuclear bombs they want. We'll just bomb Hamas back to the stone age, even further than that. Gaza will be so smooth you could use it as a parking lot when we're done with it."
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Mar 6, 2024 16:22
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I mean I figured Schiff would win because he is just a more well known Dem, and that proved to be correct
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Mar 6, 2024 16:22
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Rust Martialis posted:So basically this whole "vote uncommitted" movement remains a nothingburger. No, not really, considering how Biden needs the upper Midwest to win and it quite clearly demonstrates how angry people here are at him. And as regards Schiff, it sucks that yet another AIPAC supported politician is rising in the ranks of the Democratic Party. Nucleic Acids fucked around with this message at 16:27 on Mar 6, 2024 |
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Mar 6, 2024 16:23
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Uncle Boogeyman posted:Maybe worth noting though that the 2012 MA Democratic Primary was much lower turnout (a little under 150 thousand voters as opposed to over 550 thousand) The raw vote total doesn't work if you are trying to measure the relative difference between two different events. That would imply that Biden is roughly 5x more popular than Obama was because his raw vote total was so much higher.
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Mar 6, 2024 16:28
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Nucleic Acids posted:No, not really, considering how Biden needs the upper Midwest to win and it quite clearly demonstrates how angry people here are at him. If you’re talking about the high uncommitted percentage in MN, there is essentially a 0% chance he loses this state
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Mar 6, 2024 16:29
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Kalit posted:If you’re talking about the high uncommitted percentage in MN, there is essentially a 0% chance he loses this state I wouldn’t wanna take that bet considering how consistently he’s been trailing in key state polls for a while now.
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Mar 6, 2024 16:30
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Nucleic Acids posted:I wouldn’t wanna take that bet considering how consistently he’s been trailing in key state polls for a while now. Those polls that still are meaningless but you bring them up all the time regardless?
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Mar 6, 2024 16:32
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https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1765396713051730112 I saw a lot of speculation that McConnell was withdrawing from leadership because he was not going to endorse Trump, but these people don't know ball.
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Mar 6, 2024 16:32
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Xiahou Dun posted:Those polls that still are meaningless but you bring them up all the time regardless? I mean, they really aren’t meaningless and I don’t know people expect will happen that will make them improve.
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Mar 6, 2024 16:34
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Nucleic Acids posted:I mean, they really aren’t meaningless and I don’t know people expect will happen that will make them improve. I think there's also an issue about how the polls seem to be consistently (and rather greatly) overstating the level of GOP and Trump popularity. I find it all confusing. At the same time, people would feel better and the "vibes" would be better if Biden found a way to make there look like there was progress with the Israel/Palestine issue and other issues. I agree that as it stands, the polls are troubling and the Biden Administration seem to be doing way more gambling than I would like about underlying events panning out his way.
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Mar 6, 2024 16:40
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Nucleic Acids posted:I mean, they really aren’t meaningless and I don’t know people expect will happen that will make them improve. Polls don't have any predictive effect this far out and are just random noise at this point in an election. This has been pointed out many times. You might as well being reading auguries for all the meaning it has.
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Mar 6, 2024 16:41
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Xiahou Dun posted:Polls don't have any predictive effect this far out and are just random noise at this point in an election. This has been pointed out many times. Biden’s age and cognitive status are not going to become less of an issue as time goes on. He is such a committed Zionist there is no reason to believe he will ever change course on the genocide in Gaza. His embracing of right wing policies on migration will not win him a single vote away from Donald Trump.
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Mar 6, 2024 16:45
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Maybe this is all copium before Trump proves a lot of people on SA wrong again, but here's a short and recent piece I found on how hard polling has gotten. https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/american-pollsters-aren-t-sure-they-have-fixed-the-flaws-of-2020-11709281671702.html https://www.vox.com/politics/24034416/young-voters-biden-trump-gen-z-polling-israel-gaza-economy-2024-election
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Mar 6, 2024 16:46
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Eric Cantonese posted:I think there's also an issue about how the polls seem to be consistently (and rather greatly) overstating the level of GOP and Trump popularity. I find it all confusing.
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Mar 6, 2024 16:46
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Nucleic Acids posted:And as regards Schiff, it sucks that yet another AIPAC supported politician is rising in the ranks of the Democratic Party. You forgot to use the nested parenthesis.
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Mar 6, 2024 16:47
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Nucleic Acids posted:Biden’s age and cognitive status are not going to become less of an issue as time goes on. He is such a committed Zionist there is no reason to believe he will ever change course on the genocide in Gaza. His embracing of right wing policies on migration will not win him a single vote away from Donald Trump. Wait, what happened to the polls you were arguing for??? Where'd that argument go???? It seems to have retreated into this bailey. O wait, you don't actually have an argument. You started from this point and are furiously grasping at straws to prove it. Again.
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Mar 6, 2024 16:52
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FlamingLiberal posted:As this election gets closer I am getting more and more pessimistic about Biden losing. I just don’t get the impression that the WH has any idea that he is not popular and also that he just has a lot of underlying issues that are not going to improve before November. Voters are not going to get over the age thing. People are also pissed about the economy even if inflation has gone down compared to where it was in 2021/2022. They seem to think that Trump’s legal scandals will sink him but he’s always had some degree of that and it didn’t stop him from getting elected the first time. It’s also almost a certainty that he will not get convicted of anything before November with his trials all getting held up. There are a ton of warning signs for Biden and at least right now I see no indication that the WH is going to do anything to change course. The choices all seem to be lose-lose or impossible without Congress. I do think polling has gotten really screwed up, but I am not feeling good about the election either. I guess the old rule about "don't trusting the exact numbers, but look at the trends" is still at play.
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Mar 6, 2024 16:53
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One way to gauge the accuracy of the polls would be to look at Trump's predicted vote share in polling vs his actual vote share in primaries.
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Mar 6, 2024 16:53
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Nucleic Acids posted:Biden’s age and cognitive status are not going to become less of an issue as time goes on. He is such a committed Zionist there is no reason to believe he will ever change course on the genocide in Gaza. His embracing of right wing policies on migration will not win him a single vote away from Donald Trump. Biden being old, supporting Israel, and proposing immigration control. All things that are different from 2020 in the following ways, where someone will vote for Trump instead:
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Mar 6, 2024 16:53
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zoux posted:One way to gauge the accuracy of the polls would be to look at Trump's predicted vote share in polling vs his actual vote share in primaries. I actually like gauging them based on their unprecedented post-integration support of the GOP by black voters. Or the fact that the poll is 100% "people who both pick up the phone for unlisted numbers and will have a conversation with the anonymous person on the other end". Xombie fucked around with this message at 16:57 on Mar 6, 2024 |
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Mar 6, 2024 16:55
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Xiahou Dun posted:Wait, what happened to the polls you were arguing for??? Where'd that argument go???? It seems to have retreated into this bailey. No, those issues (among others) are all directly connected to why his polling is so poor, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t continue to worsen their effect on it. Xombie posted:Biden being old, supporting Israel, and proposing immigration control. All things that are different from 2020 in the following ways, where someone will vote for Trump instead: These were dogs for him in 2020 and things have only worsened for him on all three ever since. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Nucleic Acids fucked around with this message at 16:57 on Mar 6, 2024 |
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Mar 6, 2024 16:55
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zoux posted:One way to gauge the accuracy of the polls would be to look at Trump's predicted vote share in polling vs his actual vote share in primaries. Yeah, I'm trying to find a piece on that. I guess it might take a while to fully digest what happened on Super Tuesday. EDIT: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/26/upshot/trump-polling-primaries.html A recent NY Times piece about Trump underperforming his polls in the primaries. quote:That’s because Donald J. Trump has underperformed the polls in each of the first three contests. Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 16:59 on Mar 6, 2024 |
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Mar 6, 2024 16:55
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zoux posted:One way to gauge the accuracy of the polls would be to look at Trump's predicted vote share in polling vs his actual vote share in primaries.
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Mar 6, 2024 16:58
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Nucleic Acids posted:These were dogs for him in 2020 and things have only worsened for him on all three ever since. "Biden will lose because of things he that didn't lose him an election the first time around and his opponent is still much worse on" isn't the stellar argument that you are imagining it is.
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Mar 6, 2024 16:59
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Proud of Porter for following in her mentor's footsteps and getting third in her own state's primary.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:00
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Xombie posted:"Biden will lose because of things he that didn't lose him an election the first time around and his opponent is still much worse on" isn't the stellar argument that you are imagining it is. He is older and at the very least looks and behaves more frail, is actively supporting a genocide, and has embraced a border policy that Donald Trump could not have gotten passed at the height of his popularity and Republican control of Congress.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:01
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Nucleic Acids posted:He is older and at the very least looks and behaves more frail, is actively supporting a genocide, and has embraced a border policy that Donald Trump could not have gotten passed at the height of his popularity and Republican control of Congress. Saying things over and over doesn't make them true.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:03
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This tweet seems relevant to the current conversation. If polls are this bad at predicting races that are happening right now, how can you place any value on their predicative ability 8 months from now? It seems like an absurd position to take. https://x.com/DrEricDing/status/1765207143198703628?s=20 Seph fucked around with this message at 17:06 on Mar 6, 2024 |
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Mar 6, 2024 17:03
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Speaking of Israel, turns out it hasn't been 2 weapon shipments Joe bypassed congress on, it's been over a hundred: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/06/us-weapons-israel-gaza/ quote:The United States has quietly approved and delivered more than 100 separate foreign military sales to Israel since the Gaza war began Oct. 7, amounting to thousands of precision-guided munitions, small diameter bombs, bunker busters, small arms and other lethal aid, U.S. officials told members of Congress in a recent classified briefing.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:03
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Nucleic Acids posted:He is older and at the very least looks and behaves more frail, is actively supporting a genocide, and has embraced a border policy that Donald Trump could not have gotten passed at the height of his popularity and Republican control of Congress. I haven't gotten the impression the public really cares that much about the border poo poo. Like, it sucks, but the average Dem voter seems to also suck on this one. The people who don't like it don't consider it a priority.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:04
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Xiahou Dun posted:Saying things over and over doesn't make them true. Except polling on these issues is not going his way.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:04
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McConnell is a single-track mind on capturing the supreme court and now that it's over and he can retire like a lich, I couldn't be less surprised that he privately loves Trump.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:04
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Nucleic Acids posted:Except polling on these issues is not going his way. The polling that is still meaningless, which has been pointed out to you many times.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:05
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Nucleic Acids posted:has embraced a border policy that Donald Trump could not have gotten passed at the height of his popularity and Republican control of Congress. Trump's border policy included a ban on Muslims (that he has to water down due to the courts, not Congress), family separation, and of course the big wall across the entire border that Mexico will pay for. How is what Biden is advocating for more conservative?
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Mar 6, 2024 17:05
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Nucleic Acids posted:He is older and at the very least looks and behaves more frail, is actively supporting a genocide, and has embraced a border policy that Donald Trump could not have gotten passed at the height of his popularity and Republican control of Congress. Being old, support for Israel, and right-center border policy. Three things that did not make him lose in 2020, where Trump is demonstrably worse. Repeating yourself and not addressing this fact doesn't make the fact go away.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:05
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Xiahou Dun posted:The polling that is still meaningless, which has been pointed out to you many times. To quote another goon, saying things over and over again doesn’t make it true. Xombie posted:Being old, support for Israel, and right-center border policy. Three things that did not make him lose in 2020, where Trump is demonstrably worse. Repeating yourself and not addressing this fact doesn't make the fact go away. None that is argument in favor of what Biden is doing, and as especially regards his open support of genocide, is not helping him, as the Uncommitted votes in Michigan and Minnesota show.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:06
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Nucleic Acids posted:To quote another goon, saying things over and over again doesn’t make it true. Find me a poll that has been predictive this far out. It's the foundation of your entire argument and you haven't even tried.
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Mar 6, 2024 17:08
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