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koolkal posted:This is the gambit Dems take every time on every issue. What about pet registration?
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Mar 7, 2024 00:17
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Eiba posted:That involves either ignoring reality or advocating for much more radical change than most people are going to think is possible. Wait wait wait, you're now saying that you need radical politically infeasible immigration reform in order to deal with zoning issues in your area? Where the hell did you make that transition?
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Mar 7, 2024 00:22
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here's another program that the Biden admin is pretty proud of: a parole program where people from an evolving list of countries in the Americas that particularly suck to be stuck in, up to 360k a year currently, can receive a special work visa https://www.uscis.gov/CHNV
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Mar 7, 2024 00:24
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Google Jeb Bush posted:here's another program that the Biden admin is pretty proud of: a parole program where people from an evolving list of countries in the Americas that particularly suck to be stuck in, up to 360k a year currently, can receive a special work visa This is notably incorporating the CBP One program that was the root of a recent thrice-mediated misrepresentation by Musk on Twitter, fed through a CIS FOIA request and the Daily Mail. https://fxtwitter.com/elonmusk/status/1764885292199063590
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Mar 7, 2024 00:32
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Discendo Vox posted:Wait wait wait, you're now saying that you need radical politically infeasible immigration reform in order to deal with zoning issues in your area? Where the hell did you make that transition? I did shift to speaking more in general terms in an attempt to illustrate my larger point that messaging on this issue is going to be hard because the political realities are more complicated than "immigration would be fine if we did it right".
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Mar 7, 2024 00:38
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Eiba posted:No, radical infeasible reform is needed to deal with zoning issues in my area to begin with, regardless of immigration. That's just the background I'm dealing with. When you responded that I shouldn't concede that things must be run badly (in this case, zoned stupidly), you were basically saying I needed to advocate for some very radical local reforms before I could tell people concerned about immigration that they had nothing to worry about. You do not need radical zoning reforms to make illegal immigration not be the driver of house price increases. You're fully embodying the mote and beam here; any positive policy change anywhere is forestalled by not resolving the much more direct and straightforward local issue, and the local issue is dismissed as impossible. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 00:47 on Mar 7, 2024 |
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Mar 7, 2024 00:43
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Discendo Vox posted:You do not need radical zoning reforms to make illegal immigration not be the driver of house price increases. Eiba posted:Yeah, but it won't (intuitively) make it any better either. Immigration very obviously did not cause this problem, but nevertheless it's a problem that immigration would make worse. You were responding to me saying: Eiba posted:"If things were sane, immigration would always be a net positive," is a hypothetical I can't really sell considering things are manifestly not sane and won't be done well most of the time. "Considering we're run by people who would do things badly, immigration is going to hurt," is the kind of common sense position I would like to be able to better dispute. I would like to take a step back and say I would like to agree with your position and appreciate your firmness on this point. I'm not trying to be rhetorically difficult, and apologize if I'm not being clear. I would ultimately like to share your understanding with others. As someone who doesn't read these threads comprehensively, I really appreciated your post compiling past arguments. That was incredibly helpful.
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Mar 7, 2024 00:52
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:What about pet registration? Can't say I'm familiar with this issue at a nationwide level. I googled "pet registration democrats" and this was the first result: https://www.denverpost.com/2024/02/09/pet-registration-bill-dead-overreach-democrats-colorado/ Which had a link to this relevant story: https://www.denverpost.com/2024/02/08/colorado-pet-registration-bill-fees-regina-english/ In conclusion: yes.
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Mar 7, 2024 00:56
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https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1765494719772033443 Radical, outsider talk you'd expect from a firebrand. Candidate quality was a HUGE problem for the GOP in 2022, I presume that will hold in 2024. Speaking of candidate quality https://twitter.com/CristenDrummond/status/1765476844713963760 This dude came within like 3 pts of being a congressman in 2020 Upon losing he immediately rebranded and moved to Texas to run for something or other, finished with 2 and half percent in a jungle primary. Now he's a murderer. zoux fucked around with this message at 01:06 on Mar 7, 2024 |
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Mar 7, 2024 01:00
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Robinson will probably do better than the other nazi that ran for governor of a swing state as a Republican against a Jewish attorney general named Josh
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Mar 7, 2024 01:13
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Mustang posted:Democrats completely ceded the immigration messaging to the right and they have no one to blame for that but themselves. They were clearly hoping to be able to ignore it and it would work it's way out in its own. The Dems do have immigration policies and messaging of their own. It's just that, faced with diehard GOP resistance, they decided to focus what little they could do on economic messaging and policies, assuming that doing so would bring them safe political majorities and then they'd have plenty of time to do immigration reform. Instead, voters are gravitating to the guy who doesn't give a single poo poo about pocketbook issues and just spouts bigotry all the time.
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Mar 7, 2024 01:44
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hooman posted:It's 250 days until election and according to that chart you've posted it's showing that ~50% of the variation in the final result can be explained by polling data. That doesn't make it a coin flip, nor does it mean that polls at this point have no predictive power, for that to be true your r^2 value would be at zero as it is at 300 days out? You're actually right - the polls should have some predictive power by now. I got confused with the 200/300 day marks because the authors said that polls start being useful at the 200-day mark, which doesn't mean that they have no predictive power for the other 100 days. They are useless at 300 days out. Beyond the predictive nature of polls x days from the election, I think that a lot of us aren't taking them seriously because they seem to run counter to reality. For example: - Democrats winning elections bigly. Trump isn't going to get the perfect landscape that Republicans got in 2022 (which they still more or less lost) with midterm challenger advantage, a cratering stock market, higher crime, and the highest inflation of my lifetime and the absolute shock of it all. - the latest NYT poll showing that Trump is tying Biden with women post-Dobbs (Biden won women by 11 points in 2020) - Trump under 4 indictments and already guilty of fraud and sexual abuse Edit: - Republicans are bleeding money they don't have while Democrats are significantly outraising them - GOP state party collapses in swing states I've read (and can't find it now) that special election results are as good of predictors as polls 2 weeks from the election. small butter fucked around with this message at 02:03 on Mar 7, 2024 |
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Mar 7, 2024 01:49
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part of the reason that you shouldn't take polls seriously this far out is because the people who respond to them tend to not be a great demographic. like if you're polling via landlines in this day and age, what do you think those respondents are going to be like? pretty much the only polls worth keeping an eye on right now are exit polls for the primaries, since those tend to be answered by a broader variety of people and therefore be more representative of the average citizen. e: mostly representative. https://x.com/_cingraham/status/1765461345808580786?s=20 Kith fucked around with this message at 02:19 on Mar 7, 2024 |
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Mar 7, 2024 02:06
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Polls are very concerning and I'm very concerned, but much like the economy a year ago we're dealing with mixed indicators.
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Mar 7, 2024 02:19
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Google Jeb Bush posted:here's another program that the Biden admin is pretty proud of: a parole program where people from an evolving list of countries in the Americas that particularly suck to be stuck in, up to 360k a year currently, can receive a special work visa we immediately used it to drag over multiple family members and prevent them from dying at home. it is an amazing program, full stop If trump wins and kills it off with all the prejudice they can muster (which is a lot) then these family members will be returned to die in a warzone failed country which is currently being taken over by a guy named Barbeque
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Mar 7, 2024 02:25
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Kith posted:part of the reason that you shouldn't take polls seriously this far out is because the people who respond to them tend to not be a great demographic. like if you're polling via landlines in this day and age, what do you think those respondents are going to be like? "We definitely have to vote for Trump to make sure he doesn't try to execute a coup at Biden's second inauguration" is definitely a take...
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Mar 7, 2024 02:30
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How meaningful is the consent of the governed when the governed are detached from reality
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Mar 7, 2024 02:40
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Jimbozig posted:I just drove through upstate New York and Vermont and it's absolutely beautiful and would be a lovely place to live with some investment. Some towns there looked lovely and some looked like depressed dumps. You could put money into fixing up the dumps. Too bad the US government doesn't do that sort of thing. There are no jobs (outsourcing gutted the economy in the area in the late 80's/early 90's), the weather is terrible in winter, and the heating costs as a result of that are nuts. I used to live there (upstate NY around Albany, Schenectady, and Troy) and yeah its beautiful for a brief time around spring/summer but most of the year it sucks since winter/fall drags on so long. No one sane wants to live there and if they did the jobs aren't there and aren't going to be there in the future either. It'd be like trying to bring back coal mining or something. There is no political will to do it and even if there was it doesn't make economic sense anymore.
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Mar 7, 2024 03:14
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Trump will stroke out 2-4 weeks before election day.
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Mar 7, 2024 03:37
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https://twitter.com/michaelharriot/status/1765561564013244623/photo/1 This NCAA provision will also get overturned Roll Tide
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Mar 7, 2024 03:49
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small butter posted:I've read (and can't find it now) that special election results are as good of predictors as polls 2 weeks from the election. They are, but Dems have been running pretty poorly in special elections for the last 6 months: koolkal posted:Between 2016 and 2020, special elections taken as a whole did pretty well in predicting the next major election. Dems in 2017 and 2018 ran around +10% over the 2016 presidential results in the same area and did well in the midterms. In 2019 and 2020, they ran a bit below +5%, which matched in with the election where Dems did worse than in the midterms but better than in 2016. To add some more detail: In the first 6 months of 2023 (20 elections), the Dems ran +6.75% vs. 2020. In the post-September elections to present day (22 elections), the Dems are running -1.45% against 2020. There's been a huge shift in special election performance over the course of 2023. koolkal fucked around with this message at 05:51 on Mar 7, 2024 |
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Mar 7, 2024 03:53
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small butter posted:Trump will stroke out 2-4 weeks before election day. *taps sign reading "Hellworld"*
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Mar 7, 2024 03:56
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small butter posted:Trump will stroke out 2-4 weeks before election day. Much more likely for Biden, but if both parties switch to different candidates at the last minute we'd all be better off. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 7, 2024 04:07
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koolkal posted:They are, but Dems have been running pretty poorly in special elections for the last 6 months: Hmm....Was there something that happened after the first six months of 2022 that caused Democrats to perform unusually better in special elections than they had before?
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Mar 7, 2024 04:26
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FistEnergy posted:Much more likely for Biden, but if both parties switch to different candidates at the last minute we'd all be better off. Having seen Trump at his recent rallies, I'd be shocked if it happened to Biden first. Like, Trump makes the same kind of errors (or worse!) that people claim proves that Biden has dementia or worse, but like dozens of them in a small period of time.
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Mar 7, 2024 04:29
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koolkal posted:They are, but Dems have been running pretty poorly in special elections for the last 6 months: I will look at this more closely tomorrow, but when you say relative to 2022, you're talking about D vs D performance YoY, correct? Because 2023 as a whole I think was about an 11 point swing towards Democrats vs Republicans compared to the previous election, eg D wins by 5 in the previous cycle but wins by 16 in 2023. And of course, Democrats did well in the November 2023 elections.
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Mar 7, 2024 04:34
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Kchama posted:Having seen Trump at his recent rallies, I'd be shocked if it happened to Biden first. Like, Trump makes the same kind of errors (or worse!) that people claim proves that Biden has dementia or worse, but like dozens of them in a small period of time. I'd guess the perception of age is more a presentation thing, Trump's brain is clearly fried (and has been for a while) but his brash energy is pretty similar even when it is lower than 4 years ago, so when he's making less sense and making more errors than he already did, it doesn't stick out so much. Biden seems quite a bit less animated than even 4 years ago which, at least to me, makes the errors stick out more so people percieve his age impacting his performance more. I am not an expert in any of this though so take everything here with a big grain of salt.
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Mar 7, 2024 04:44
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FistEnergy posted:Much more likely for Biden, but if both parties switch to different candidates at the last minute we'd all be better off. Biden is not facing 91 charges and raging all day while stuffing himself with well done burger meat. Also, doesn't Biden work out every day?
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Mar 7, 2024 05:06
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small butter posted:Also, doesn't Biden work out every day? yes and hes expending his mana. IMPEACH!
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Mar 7, 2024 05:14
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Staluigi posted:we immediately used it to drag over multiple family members and prevent them from dying at home. it is an amazing program, full stop while failed state warlords in general are pretty fun, I do appreciate that Mr Barbecue in his interview with a journalist just straight up went "a lot of people are asking questions about my 'I don't routinely burn people to death in public' t-shirt that are answered by the shirt" he's just a fan of his family history as local food vendors
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Mar 7, 2024 05:25
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hooman posted:I'd guess the perception of age is more a presentation thing, Trump's brain is clearly fried (and has been for a while) but his brash energy is pretty similar even when it is lower than 4 years ago, so when he's making less sense and making more errors than he already did, it doesn't stick out so much. It’s probably more “It’s only a problem when it’s a Democratic” combined with the media having a financial incentive to make Trump look good.
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Mar 7, 2024 05:40
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Biden's age is a big issue in the media because he's boring as hell and just kinda does his job, so when he flubs something they jump on it. Trump would say the most insane poo poo you ever heard on the daily while getting away crimes that would make Capone envious. His age was the least of his problems.
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Mar 7, 2024 05:58
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Kith posted:part of the reason that you shouldn't take polls seriously this far out is because the people who respond to them tend to not be a great demographic. like if you're polling via landlines in this day and age, what do you think those respondents are going to be like? I think what this shows is that America's brain melted elder population is a demographic that is spoiled for choice in candidates that represent them
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Mar 7, 2024 06:09
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hooman posted:It really depends if it translates from primary into general votes and where those votes are, for example uncommitted in a very blue state isn't going to do a lot whereas in a purple state it could be important. Ultimately it's all reading tea-leaves though.
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Mar 7, 2024 06:09
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small butter posted:I will look at this more closely tomorrow, but when you say relative to 2022, you're talking about D vs D performance YoY, correct? Mistyped, meant 2020 not 2022. To clarify: these are measuring the Dem-Rep % vote margin in the given special election district against the same district in 2020 (no statewide races). So H1 2023 special elections had the Dems winning districts by a +6.75% margin compared to the 2020 presidential in the same district.
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Mar 7, 2024 06:11
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Professor Beetus posted:I think what this shows is that America's brain melted elder population is a demographic that is spoiled for choice in candidates that represent them What this shows is that if you interview Trump supporters.. I mean the kind of who voted Trump in 2016 and 2020 and probably have been nasty fuckers for decades, they might pretend to be vaguely distrusting of Trump but they are simply lying. This woman is 100% a Trumper, and nothing she says can be taken seriously to the contrary. Maybe she supported Nikki for XYZ reason (breaking glass ceilings whatever) but there is no doubt in my mind she would immediately support Trump if nominated.
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Mar 7, 2024 06:12
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koolkal posted:They are, but Dems have been running pretty poorly in special elections for the last 6 months: Does that matter what and where the elections were? Like some I’d assume democrats (or republicans) would never have a chance in no matter the national leaning politics. Is the shift because of shifting national voting patterns or because more recent special elections just favored republicans
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Mar 7, 2024 06:14
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FistEnergy posted:Much more likely for Biden...
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Mar 7, 2024 06:44
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Crows Turn Off posted:Why is it much more likely for Biden? Have you actually seen Trump try to finish a sentence recently? Biden's mental abilities have deteriorated significantly, especially lately. And he looks physically much more frail than Trump, and at times seems like he can't even move around well. And I've never seen Trump get lost on stage or look like he doesn't know where he is or what he's supposed to be doing. There's a clear difference between Biden and Trump from what I've seen, and Biden is worse. It's an eye test thing - I'm not a doctor - but a clear majority of Americans agree with me, not with the thread consensus in here. They both say and do stupid things, but Biden is on a much different and much sadder level.
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Mar 7, 2024 06:55
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FistEnergy posted:Biden's mental abilities have deteriorated significantly, especially lately. And he looks physically much more frail than Trump, and at times seems like he can't even move around well. And I've never seen Trump get lost on stage or look like he doesn't know where he is or what he's supposed to be doing. Trump's the one out there forgetting his own wife's name. That poo poo barely rates notice, and meanwhile the press breathlessly reports that Biden might have had some notecards he read off at a private event.
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Mar 7, 2024 07:15
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