(Thread IKs:
weg, Toxic Mental)
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I wonder what hats off psycho poo poo is going to play after the weekend.
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Mar 16, 2024 17:33
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| # ? May 23, 2024 23:08 |
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https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1769166568892637550 no smoking.
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Mar 17, 2024 04:54
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Jesus Christ. Good riddance and a very merry ominous drone shadow and fall out of a loving airplane to the rapist army.
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Mar 17, 2024 06:10
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steinrokkan posted:I wonder if crippling the generation of reproductive age people will help in alleviating the looming demographic crisis Probably not, but it seems to be worse in Ukraine by a whole lot. This article is some seriously depressive reading https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/15/ukraine-village-mobilized-men-war/ You have to be a very special kind of lovely human to participate in forced conscription of civillians, regardless of nationality
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Mar 17, 2024 09:59
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https://packaged-media.redd.it/4ryg...5413fc30c2b#t=0
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Mar 17, 2024 10:24
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Without Putin, Lukashenko will immediately find himself in The Hague. That’s if he’s lucky and doesn’t go out the way Gaddafi did. Without Russia’s support, his regime would collapse within a year. Putin has genuine support from a significant sector of Russia’s population, Lukashenko has almost none from Belarusians. The way the 2020-21 protests were put down was horrific.
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Mar 17, 2024 10:41
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If your country doesn't have masked, armed men looking over your shoulder in the voting booth, it just isn't a democratic tankie utopia
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Mar 17, 2024 11:21
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Serjeant Buzfuz posted:FPV real time controlled cruise missile quadcopter is a technical or not? If it was purpose-built then no, but if it was a commercial drone modified with weapons then yes. Bonus points if it was already secondhand when it was modified.
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Mar 17, 2024 11:57
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Mar 17, 2024 13:30
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You sunk my battleship
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Mar 17, 2024 13:33
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Shinjobi posted:just makes me wonder if we ever reach a point where the leeches wonder if it ain't worth it anymore The second the blood money runs out  33% of their refineries gone That blood money is gonna run out fast
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Mar 17, 2024 13:46
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Vampire Panties posted:The second the blood money runs out They mostly export unrefined crude oil. This has very little impact on their foreign sales. The issue is that as they mostly refined unrefined crude, most of their refinery capacity exists to serve domestic demand, and they do not have all that much excess capacity. And demand goes up in a war.
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Mar 17, 2024 13:59
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Vampire Panties posted:The second the blood money runs out If they are destroying all the actual cracking towers when they hit the refineries things are going to get very complicated very quickly.  
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Mar 17, 2024 14:00
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Tuna-Fish posted:They mostly export unrefined crude oil. This has very little impact on their foreign sales. Do you think importing more refined products could cost more money, now that their internal (and likely irreplaceable) refineries are being eliminated? 
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Mar 17, 2024 14:08
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Vampire Panties posted:Do you think importing more refined products could cost more money, now that their internal (and likely irreplaceable) refineries are being eliminated? Who are they going to import from? The countries that had all the extra refinery capacity that they used to export to are sanctioning them. What I'm saying is that this is worse for them than costing a lot of money. Their domestic supply chain is inefficient and therefore has a lot of slack, which is why this isn't that visible yet, but even if Ukraine stopped the strikes right now I'd expect that by summer they would have to ration domestic gasoline and diesel sales. Tuna-Fish fucked around with this message at 14:14 on Mar 17, 2024 |
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Mar 17, 2024 14:12
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How extensive is the damage from one attack and how quickly can it be repaired? It would probably be a mistake to assume that one large fireball means an entire refinery is gone.
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Mar 17, 2024 14:37
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beer_war posted:How extensive is the damage from one attack and how quickly can it be repaired? It would probably be a mistake to assume that one large fireball means an entire refinery is gone. 
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Mar 17, 2024 14:38
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Tuna-Fish posted:They mostly export unrefined crude oil. This has very little impact on their foreign sales. Running out of diesel/petrol might even be worse for them than running out of money. Putin can just stop paying pensions and people will survive somehow (like they did in the 90s). Can't survive without fuel though. People can't get to work, food can't be distributed to processing center or shops, factories can't produce without working logistics, etc. I wonder how large their strategic diesel reserves are and how much they can import from China or through ports.
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Mar 17, 2024 14:41
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Tuna-Fish posted:They mostly export unrefined crude oil. This has very little impact on their foreign sales. This is a myth. Refined products are still a significant part of Russian fossil fuel exports, amounting to a 1/3 of total petroleum exports and 1/2 of seaborne trade. The refined petroleum market is also much more diversified than the crude market, where China and India have a lot of leverage over Russia.
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Mar 17, 2024 14:49
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Gasoline/petrol was banned on exporting a few weeks back.
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Mar 17, 2024 14:54
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beer_war posted:How extensive is the damage from one attack and how quickly can it be repaired? It would probably be a mistake to assume that one large fireball means an entire refinery is gone. Ukraine appears to be targeting the distillation towers, which is neither cheap nor easy to replace.
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Mar 17, 2024 15:05
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beer_war posted:How extensive is the damage from one attack and how quickly can it be repaired? It would probably be a mistake to assume that one large fireball means an entire refinery is gone.  However, Diesel refineries use thermal cracking which is effectively a huge still, so those could likely be repaired or replaced in-country. Repairs and/or replacements would be complicated and require a high degree of manufacturing skill because they're boiling crude oil to 750° and collecting very specific vapours.
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Mar 17, 2024 15:05
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Clearly this means all the gasoline Russia is making and smuggling is just worth that much more money all going into Putin's pockets due to scarcity 
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Mar 17, 2024 15:09
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EorayMel posted:Clearly this means all the gasoline Russia is making and smuggling is just worth that much more money all going into Putin's pockets due to scarcity Jeans and fish as a barter system shall reign supreme again.
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Mar 17, 2024 15:15
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bob dobbs is dead posted:dictators have to be more neurotic than democratic leaders about legitimacy. therefore, they have lots more bling and weird legitimacy stuff that they need to do. you can literally tell dictators and democratic presidents apart visually, usually: cf. gadaffi with the medal-pile and all that. this was most extreme with kings, who obviously had the most bling of anyone in human history Is there like some study of this stuff? I've been very curious about it since I had jury duty and realized the whole place is dressed up in dollar store opulence so you take the judge seriously.
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Mar 17, 2024 15:29
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GABA ghoul posted:I wonder how large their strategic diesel reserves are They span several opulent floors with extensive under ground parking in Knightsbridge central London, Beverly Hills and Monaco thank you for asking.
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Mar 17, 2024 15:31
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Most of this is to gently caress up russian domestic oil as well as gently caress up russian war effort. Tanks and doofwagons need guzzoleeen.
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Mar 17, 2024 15:39
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Vampire Panties posted:The towers are the refinery. All the other poo poo is for supplying raw material, catalysts, and the output product. Fluid Catalytic Cracking is complex as gently caress. Assuming they were gasoline refineries, the towers would likely need to be replaced. Yeah, the Ukrainians can just keep tapping these sites with drones. I am sure they will hit all the ones they can all over Russia. Drones with dumb Donna are pretty easy to get apparently so far.
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Mar 17, 2024 15:42
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https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1769293912416342316 They look very well for people who supposedly died 4 times already.
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Mar 17, 2024 15:46
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Mar 17, 2024 16:05
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A picture as real as Russian election results.
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Mar 17, 2024 16:12
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 Ouch.
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Mar 17, 2024 16:33
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https://x.com/DefMon3/status/1769418770471174241?s=20 Bit more helpful than that Bingo card. That's a lot of red! Edit: someone posted this Google Map in the replies where another user keeps track on the refinery "incidents" among other things. Really helps in getting a handle on how far Ukraine can reach with their drones and how much damage they are doing. https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewe...69260156266&z=6 beer_war fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Mar 17, 2024 |
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Mar 17, 2024 19:55
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beer_war posted:How extensive is the damage from one attack and how quickly can it be repaired? It would probably be a mistake to assume that one large fireball means an entire refinery is gone. I'm sure these facilities will be repaired promptly. It’s not as if Russia were stupid enough to draft highly skilled workers and send them into a meatgrinder of a war.
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Mar 17, 2024 20:18
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Oh look, Putin won another election.  Totally a normal country.
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Mar 17, 2024 21:17
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So, uh, it sure seems like these long range drones might be a strategic problem for Russia. I don't know the success rate overall, but it seems pretty high for Ukraine, and even if Russians start putting air defense in at these refineries, the damage here is already done at what looks like >50% of the refineries (if not fully effecting them), and Ukraine could move to target another critical part of the petroleum or energy logistics train that is still unprotected if need be. Also, the tempo seems pretty high, even if ongoing sortie rate is half of this, that seems pretty bad for Russia. Like if I was Russia, I'd be freaking out if something like 30% of my petroleum distillation capacity in the western part was gone in a few weeks.
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Mar 17, 2024 21:26
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The people just love their emperor. Of course you stupid Westoids wouldn't understand.
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Mar 17, 2024 22:50
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beer_war posted:The people just love their emperor. Of course you stupid Westoids wouldn't understand. That orange crane's operator's station lol
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Mar 17, 2024 22:52
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beer_war posted:The people just love their emperor. Of course you stupid Westoids wouldn't understand. I had a Russian internet friend in the 2000s and this is literally what he said.
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Mar 17, 2024 22:58
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| # ? May 23, 2024 23:08 |
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Bone Crimes posted:So, uh, it sure seems like these long range drones might be a strategic problem for Russia. I don't know the success rate overall, but it seems pretty high for Ukraine, and even if Russians start putting air defense in at these refineries, the damage here is already done at what looks like >50% of the refineries (if not fully effecting them), and Ukraine could move to target another critical part of the petroleum or energy logistics train that is still unprotected if need be. Also, the tempo seems pretty high, even if ongoing sortie rate is half of this, that seems pretty bad for Russia. Russia also doesn't seem like it is capable of repairing or rebuilding most of these things in a cheap or timely manner, even though it's Russia's cash crop/most lucrative industry outside of concentrated human misery and they'd probably prioritize construction there. Maybe if they took some of the anti air systems away from Moscow or at least St. Petersburg and put them closer to more industrial towns and refineries things wouldn't look so lovely for Russia, but I guess there's just not enough AA stuff to cover all the areas and Putin probably factored in the loss of respect by having to scatter AA around more cities after all the talk about Ukraine being incompetent and Russia being untouchable. Even if most of the sanctions are ignored or circumvented it is pretty hard to sell gas/oil/energy under the table to buyers when you don't have any gas/oil/energy to sell in the first place. If these strikes keep up like this for another month the idea Russia would probably have to start rationing gas/vehicles if Russia wasn't already doing so doesn't seem unlikely at all
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Mar 17, 2024 23:06
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