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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:hello, this is previous sanctions on commodity exports and tech imports, physical goods that should be easy enough to control the flow of calling Isn't the whole point of a sanctions regime like this "Death by a thousand cuts"? It seems like forcing Russian companies and intermediaries to pay fronts is exactly in line with that concept.
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Mar 20, 2024 05:32
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:hello, this is previous sanctions on commodity exports and tech imports, physical goods that should be easy enough to control the flow of calling Hmm yes sanctions aren't watertight better not do anything at all.
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Mar 20, 2024 07:44
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Russia's done a lot of work to make their government and defense enterprises capable of running on their sovereign Internet. But this could be a major challenge for the Russian private sector to overcome if the Government does activate the sovereign Internet, because there isn't a good replacement for the big 3 cloud service providers.
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Mar 20, 2024 09:14
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worst case scenario is that it has little to no impact because everything is migrated in a timely manner, but that still requires massive amounts of spending to reach the previous level of functionality so it's realistically still a big win in terms of sanction effectiveness
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Mar 20, 2024 09:57
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Wrong Theory posted:A bunch of senior officers are about to hear from their online girlfriends for the last time and they don't even know it. ;( Lmao
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Mar 20, 2024 10:28
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:hello, this is previous sanctions on commodity exports and tech imports, physical goods that should be easy enough to control the flow of calling difference between internet sanctions and other sanctions is that they can just turn off your nation by geoIP. Sure, services can be accessed from other countries, but as of today Russia can't access a significant amount of the internet. Anything on Azure, which includes Office stuff, is inaccessible from anywhere inside Russia without a VPN. ofc, a VPN is a trivial way around it that doesn't require going to Estonia
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Mar 20, 2024 15:25
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https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29796quote:Kyiv Confirms Drone Attack on Russia's Engels Air Base Another Russian airbase strike, this time some 600km past the border. PurpleXVI fucked around with this message at 15:33 on Mar 20, 2024 |
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Mar 20, 2024 15:30
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RFC2324 posted:difference between internet sanctions and other sanctions is that they can just turn off your nation by geoIP. Sure, services can be accessed from other countries, but as of today Russia can't access a significant amount of the internet. Anything on Azure, which includes Office stuff, is inaccessible from anywhere inside Russia without a VPN. they actually blocked access to random (not just Microsoft-owned stuff like O365) poo poo running on azure, not just purchase of services from russia? that seems rather drastic, though i am somewhat amused that the block's now coming from the provider direction after RKN's failed attempts to block Telegram a few years back instead just knocked out large arbitrary swathes of the provider networks and took out local services but yeah, russia is not the place i'd expect considerable disruption from loss of (official) access to cloud providers; dealing with internet blocks is not exactly something they're new to
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Mar 20, 2024 18:02
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https://x.com/MrKovalenko/status/1770432112723710221?s=20quote:In particular, Russia will create 2 new ground armies (more than 80,000 total) and 30 additional military formations, including 16 brigades (from 32,000 to 128,000 troops total) and 14 divisions (from 128,000 to 560,000 total). Simple calculations show that the proposed boost in "cannon fodder" is a minimum of 240,000 and a maximum of 768,000. Here we go.
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Mar 20, 2024 23:19
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Jesus, I feel very sorry for all of the non-Moscovites that are gonna get shunted into the meat grinder for no reason other than "was born in the wrong part of Russia"
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Mar 21, 2024 00:29
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I still keep wondering when the Russians will get tired of dying, seems like we're not there yet.
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Mar 21, 2024 01:23
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It happened one time and it took WW I levels of casualties with a weak government.
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Mar 21, 2024 01:29
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when they are pulling people off the streets of moscow to go to the front then they might get tired of it
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Mar 21, 2024 01:29
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Voyager I posted:It happened one time and it took WW I levels of casualties with a weak government. it also took a harsh winter and a famine, and was preceeded by several failed, softer revolutions over the previous years/generations.
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Mar 21, 2024 02:00
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PurpleXVI posted:I still keep wondering when the Russians will get tired of dying, seems like we're not there yet. *Flips through Russian history book* Hmmm going to be a while yet.
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Mar 21, 2024 02:58
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PurpleXVI posted:I still keep wondering when the Russians will get tired of dying, seems like we're not there yet. Wonder how the Ukrainians are going to deal with half a million more Russians when they’re already having manpower, ammunition and equipment issues. Maybe those strikes on the awacs and Engels fields coincide with the F-16 deployment and they’ll be using air power to lopside the kill ratios in Ukraines favour.
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Mar 21, 2024 03:06
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Kraftwerk posted:Wonder how the Ukrainians are going to deal with half a million more Russians when they’re already having manpower, ammunition and equipment issues. More than willing to bet - those Russian units don't exist, and were entirely for the Russian viewers to hear to assuage ideas that Russia might lose.
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Mar 21, 2024 03:10
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Kraftwerk posted:Wonder how the Ukrainians are going to deal with half a million more Russians when they’re already having manpower, ammunition and equipment issues. I mean, the Russians are also having ammunition, equipment and training issues with the troops they already have. Just getting those 500k troops to the front lines is going to tax their denuded supply of trucks and APC's, then you need trucks to keep them supplied(and there are already Russian soldiers talking about having to eat vermin and videos of them needing to drink condensation off basement ceilings), you need those supplies to exist... More troops for the Russians absolutely isn't good, but I think there are some pretty open questions about how those troops get to the fighting and in what state they get there.
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Mar 21, 2024 03:34
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CommieGIR posted:More than willing to bet - those Russian units don't exist, and were entirely for the Russian viewers to hear to assuage ideas that Russia might lose. Would they even be able to supply two extra armies in the field if they do exist? Logistics has been a critical problem for the Russian army since day 1 and it doesn't seem to have stopped being a problem yet Still not a war though
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Mar 21, 2024 04:29
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Currently the Russian troops are fighting just fine, per Mike Kofman. In the most recent WotR update he talks about how effective the brutal punitive environment is to motivate the soldiers, and how they've adopted the tactics of Wagner to be much more effective than they once were, plus a 5-to-1 fires advantage. Ukraine is going to have to conscript a lot of young folks asap to get them trained in time to counter a potential Russian manpower boost. Though the fact that UA is resorting to penal battalions too seems like the political will to do so is extremely weak.
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Mar 21, 2024 05:03
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glynnenstein posted:Currently the Russian troops are fighting just fine, per Mike Kofman. In the most recent WotR update he talks about how effective the brutal punitive environment is to motivate the soldiers, and how they've adopted the tactics of Wagner to be much more effective than they once were, plus a 5-to-1 fires advantage. Not to doubt Mike but they don't seem actually capable of any real gains in advancing, so I don't know how that comes across as 'fighting fine'
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Mar 21, 2024 12:21
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I'm pretty sure Russia's forthcoming manpower advantage could be largely mitigated (as it already has been to some degree) if the US and other European allies stopped dragging their feet on giving Ukraine the weapons and ammo they need.
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Mar 21, 2024 12:28
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The Door Frame posted:Would they even be able to supply two extra armies in the field if they do exist? Logistics has been a critical problem for the Russian army since day 1 and it doesn't seem to have stopped being a problem yet Belgorod is right there up on the frontline. If Russia raises another 500k soldiers, they are probably not going to join the existing frontline, they are going to open a new one from the north. Again.
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Mar 21, 2024 12:35
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psydude posted:I'm pretty sure Russia's forthcoming manpower advantage could be largely mitigated (as it already has been to some degree) if the US and other European allies stopped dragging their feet on giving Ukraine the weapons and ammo they need. I think hoping for the US to supply Ukraine again is a pipe dream, and I think there's a genuine worry that a lot of the sanctions slowing down Russia's ability to re-arm will evaporate after the next elections. At least the EU is taking things more seriously, and the Czechs seem about to supply a very large amount of shells.
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Mar 21, 2024 13:41
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Tuna-Fish posted:Belgorod is right there up on the frontline. If Russia raises another 500k soldiers, they are probably not going to join the existing frontline, they are going to open a new one from the north. Again.
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Mar 21, 2024 14:54
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CommieGIR posted:More than willing to bet - those Russian units don't exist, and were entirely for the Russian viewers to hear to assuage ideas that Russia might lose. I also found it interesting how the article bemoans the dismissal of Zaluzhny as if to say "any failures will be Zelensky's fault. Comrade Zaluzhny tried to warn us!"
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Mar 21, 2024 15:41
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CommieGIR posted:Not to doubt Mike but they don't seem actually capable of any real gains in advancing, so I don't know how that comes across as 'fighting fine' His point was that Russians still seem motivated (and not always through fear) to go on the offense. And there are a lot of instances of them committing suicide rather being captured or wait to be rescued. I like when he brought up how they are intercepting a lot of phone calls from wives/girlfriends urging their loved one to sign up for these assault battalions for the bonus pay.
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Mar 21, 2024 19:55
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Dick Ripple posted:His point was that Russians still seem motivated (and not always through fear) to go on the offense. And there are a lot of instances of them committing suicide rather being captured or wait to be rescued. But as far as we know they haven't been paying out at all. And being motivated to go on the offensive does not mean being effective at an offensive. Mysteriously it has not turned into major gains for the Russian military.
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Mar 21, 2024 23:09
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Kraftwerk posted:Wonder how the Ukrainians are going to deal with half a million more Russians when they’re already having manpower, ammunition and equipment issues. I don't think so. There's still a shitton of Russian air defences protecting the airspace. No, what Ukraine needs is a fuckton of artillery shells. From all I've read and heard from the experts they've been pretty consistent that the biggest factor in this war so far hasn't been the Javelin, nor western tanks and IVFs, or any specific western gear, it's been artillery. And they're also saying that the west doesn't seem to have the necessary artillery shell production capacity, never mind stockpiles. And as much as I'd like to see the mighty Viper bombing the poo poo out of Russian positions, their air defences are thick and nasty. Even with (hypothetically speaking) a fully equipped and trained anti-SAM F-16 squadron ("wild weasels"), with HTS pods and fully stocked with HARMs, they'd have a hell of a lot of difficult work ahead of them to dismantle the air defence network, to pave the way for more airstrikes. Hyperlynx fucked around with this message at 01:46 on Mar 22, 2024 |
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Mar 22, 2024 00:50
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Are the majority of Ukraine’s ECM/e-War assets Soviet based? Are there any aged out platforms in NATO inventory that might make an impact?
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Mar 22, 2024 01:28
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CommieGIR posted:But as far as we know they haven't been paying out at all. In regards to pay, hopefully that is the case as not paying the people with weapons can cause problems. I also wonder why the Ukrainians are not paying their soldiers more to increase numbers, as that is reported to being the primary factor for Russian recruiting numbers. And as most armies learned in WW1, the machine gun > elan. But it does pose a problem for Ukraine, in that Russian soldiers in aggregate have good and/or sufficient morale.
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Mar 22, 2024 09:19
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Dick Ripple posted:In regards to pay, hopefully that is the case as not paying the people with weapons can cause problems. I also wonder why the Ukrainians are not paying their soldiers more to increase numbers, as that is reported to being the primary factor for Russian recruiting numbers. Being invaded and losing about a quarter of their country, including what I understand to be very economically active sections in Donetsk and Crimea, as well as the ripple effects of having to yoink a bunch of working-age men out of the economy to defend the country, businesses getting blown up, etc. probably means that Ukraine cannot simply magic up a bunch of money to pay people extra with, especially since, unlike Russia, they would actually try to pay.
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Mar 22, 2024 10:42
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https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0cquote:US urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries lmao, gently caress right off. Russian oil terminals getting blown up is, in fact, good and awesome.
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Mar 22, 2024 10:47
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I wonder who in the White House said that... It has been reported that Gazprom and other Russian owned oil/gas firms have been helping pay for the war (salaries, reconstruction, ect.) effort directly. Which I am sure they have not budgeted for, and could be a large reason why so many executives have been commiting suicide lately.
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Mar 22, 2024 12:55
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https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29896quote:Closing Stable Doors - Russian Energy Companies Now Purchasing Anti-Drone Equipment https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/27/russia-to-ban-gasoline-exports-for-six-months quote:Russia orders halt on petrol exports I hadn't heard about this one at all until now. My understanding is that Russia has more exports of crude than refined oil products, but this still seems pretty bad for them, and also a hint that Russia remembers a good number of uprisings have started due to rising fuel prices or removed fuel subsidies...
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Mar 22, 2024 13:18
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PurpleXVI posted:https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0c It drives me goddamned insane. Either it's a war or it's not. Quit playing this coy bullshit of we want you to hurt Russia, but not too bad.
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Mar 22, 2024 13:26
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IMF approves $880 million loan payment for Ukrainequote:The executive board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a third review of Ukraine's $15.6 billion loan program. This decision enables the release of $880 million designated for budget support, bringing the total disbursements to $5.4 billion, the IMF announced on March 21. Expected to wind down this year? Well, either way, at least they're getting some money they need
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Mar 22, 2024 13:33
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GD_American posted:It drives me goddamned insane. Either it's a war or it's not. Quit playing this coy bullshit of we want you to hurt Russia, but not too bad. Well, it's not a "Special Military Operation" any more.
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Mar 22, 2024 14:18
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PurpleXVI posted:https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0c I saw another comment that the authors of this article are based in India and quoting unnamed White House officials.
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Mar 22, 2024 16:08
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I'm pretty sure they're going to get their cheeks clapped if the next front touches NATO soil. Big tough anti West bad guys haven't really been pushing the west, they've been kicking their cousin.
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Mar 22, 2024 17:39
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