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sexy tiger boobs posted:Haha, was this guy a semi-sane republican or a ghoul? Any chance that his seat flips? I think he's one of the "mainstream" Republicans who immediately fold whenever the crazies challenge them. He voted with Trump 95% of the time but didn't deny the 2020 election, blamed Trump for January 6 but opposed impeachment, and supports Ukraine aid but not doing anything to make the speaker hold a vote on it.
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Mar 22, 2024 20:08
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Cimber posted:Not always their fault to not run someone. The abuse the candidate and their families receive in really red areas is abhorrent. I’m of a couple minds on it. I get what you’re saying and get putting effort and money into races that can actually be won, but I also wonder if they should be putting up some sort of effort if only to motivate Dems in the area to go vote in the state-wide elections and build some support over a longer time scale. But nobody really seems to be thinking on timescales longer than the next election.
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Mar 22, 2024 20:15
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Gallagher's district is listed as R+10, so not much hope of a flip there
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Mar 22, 2024 20:18
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:If the rest of the GOP caucus hates MTG, would they back kicking her out? Her district is safe red, so they maybe could get lucky with a more generic Republican If they really hate her, they'll elect her Speaker.
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Mar 22, 2024 20:23
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Shooting Blanks posted:In stranger news today: *4 months after being fired* "You can't fire me, I quit!"
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Mar 22, 2024 20:52
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:I’m of a couple minds on it. I get what you’re saying and get putting effort and money into races that can actually be won, but I also wonder if they should be putting up some sort of effort if only to motivate Dems in the area to go vote in the state-wide elections and build some support over a longer time scale. OP was being quite literal. MTG’s opponent dropped out a few years ago because her supporters stalked and harassed him and basically ruined his life. Happens in deep red districts across the country. I’m half convinced the woman who kept running doomed campaigns here for years kept signing up because she was single and had no family to put in harm’s way. She had a brick thrown through her apartment window the last time she ran. It’s easy to say in abstract to just run someone, it’s something else to actually be on the receiving end. Ellipson fucked around with this message at 21:49 on Mar 22, 2024 |
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Mar 22, 2024 21:47
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Am I crazy or is the math potentially there for Mike Johnson to get hosed by MTG's antics here? It's still a majority vote right? Assuming the dems all vote to vacate they'd need like 5 votes from MTG like crazies or even just a handful of absentee Republicans and Johnson is hosed or.....? 
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Mar 22, 2024 21:47
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Some capitol reporter voice on NPR earlier today said that they had heard some democrats comment in private that they'd be willing to support Johnson and prevent him getting voted out. Who knows what will happen over the Easter recess, though.
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Mar 22, 2024 21:51
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Kale posted:Am I crazy or is the math potentially there for Mike Johnson to get hosed by MTG's antics here? It's still a majority vote right? Assuming the dems all vote to vacate they'd need like 5 votes from MTG like crazies or even just a handful of absentee Republicans and Johnson is hosed or.....? This has already been the case for some time. The freedom caucus is larger than the GOP margin, which is why they have leadership by the balls and why the first speaker election of this congress was also a circus The real problem here is that if another seat is knocked out, possibly by random chance (scandal, heart attack, someone decides to REALLY gently caress leadership over) the House is tied and all party-line votes fail. And if two seats are knocked out, the door is open for the Dems to trigger and win the next speaker election and the house changes hands mid-term
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Mar 22, 2024 21:51
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haveblue posted:This has already been the case for some time. The freedom caucus is larger than the GOP margin, which is why they have leadership by the balls and why the first speaker election of this congress was also a circus the conspiratorial bullshit will truly kick into hilarious overdrive if some 80 year old has a heart attack. Hillary's Revenge though IIRC there are more old House Dems than House Reps.
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Mar 22, 2024 21:53
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haveblue posted:This has already been the case for some time. The freedom caucus is larger than the GOP margin, which is why they have leadership by the balls and why the first speaker election of this congress was also a circus Yeah I mean they clearly want Jeffries to be speaker over literally any Republican ever so I can't see a single Dem voting not to ouster Johnson now like they did with McCarthy and see if they can manage to sneak Jeffries in somehow or just let Republicans have another month or so of chucklefuck thumb twiddling trying to find a 3rd Republican speaker in 2 years. It does seem up to the freedom caucus to save his rear end or give him the boat here as the balance of power in the house. e: Okay apparently Tom Suozzi the guy that took over for Santos doesn't want Johnson to go so maybe he's safe after all if even one Dem doesn't want him out. I guess the question is now if the Dems will even whip for a Johnson ouster or not. Kale fucked around with this message at 21:57 on Mar 22, 2024 |
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Mar 22, 2024 21:54
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Ellipson posted:OP was being quite literal. MTG’s opponent dropped out a few years ago because her supporters stalked and harassed him and basically ruined his life. Happens in deep red districts across the country. I’m half convinced the woman who kept running doomed campaigns here for years kept signing up because she was single and had no family to put in harm’s way. She had a brick thrown through her apartment window the last time she ran. I live in a red part of Long Island, and a coworker of mine lives in a town nearby. A few years ago he was running for school board in his town against a pretty MAGA mom. School boards are supposed to be non partisan, but it didn't take long for it to leak out that he was a democrat. People started calling him at 3 AM. Knocks at the door from people who wanted to 'give him a piece of their mind' and would berate him for 'trying to make our kids into socialists'. Facebook was even worse, and someone from out of state started making memes about him. It got so bad he had to sit in his car in the morning with his daughter to make sure she didn't catch poo poo from adults while waiting for the school bus. Eventually he dropped out of the race, saying 'gently caress this'. MAGA mom won unopposed. And yes, people from out of state were getting involved in this, this was part of the whole 'take back our school boards' movement if you remember that stuff.
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Mar 22, 2024 21:58
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Dull Fork posted:So not only do you need to get a second opinion but a third? They would ask for more opinions but there aren't that many doctors on Malta.
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Mar 22, 2024 22:02
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Kale posted:Am I crazy or is the math potentially there for Mike Johnson to get hosed by MTG's antics here? It's still a majority vote right? Assuming the dems all vote to vacate they'd need like 5 votes from MTG like crazies or even just a handful of absentee Republicans and Johnson is hosed or.....? Yes, but most of the MTG-like crazies are already on record saying they don't want to oust Johnson. MTG only needs to flip a couple of people to oust Johnson, but it doesn't really seem like anyone's actually onboard. The crazy Freedom Caucus types are still okay with Johnson, and have already told reporters that as mad as they are about this spending bill, they're not going to boot him over it. And none of the other Republicans see anything to gain from another Speaker fight right now. Even MTG herself is apparently hinting to reporters that she doesn't really plan to go through with it: https://twitter.com/natalieandrews/status/1771208017960124813
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Mar 22, 2024 22:04
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Main Paineframe posted:Yes, but most of the MTG-like crazies are already on record saying they don't want to oust Johnson. Hope so, otherwise he's gonna get hosed so hard his son's phone will be blowing up.
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Mar 22, 2024 22:08
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Cimber posted:Hope so, otherwise he's gonna get hosed so hard his son's phone will be blowing up. Liked and subscribed.
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Mar 22, 2024 22:17
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Main Paineframe posted:Yes, but most of the MTG-like crazies are already on record saying they don't want to oust Johnson. MTG: I shot him in the leg as a warning shot that I'll really shoot him next time! Anyway, Johnson is a ghoul but he's shown that he'll compromise, hence why the Freedom Caucus nutjobs are mad at him. The Dems probably don't gain anything by going along with MTG's cry for attention, even if they did boot Johnson who knows what they'll get from whoever emerges from that clusterfuck, if anyone does emerge. I could very much see a scenario where the GOP can't decide on a Speaker and thus nothing gets done until the election, which helps Trump. Now, the guy who resigned before this guy said Johnson had to watch out for the resignations coming after him, so lol, lmao even, if enough GOP reps do resign and the House does flip. I wouldn't want to be the one who caused the tipping point unless I wasn't just 100% done with politics but moving far, far away, though.
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Mar 22, 2024 23:08
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The comedy option is they oust Johnson, the retirement happens, another rep gets hit by a bus, and then the real chaos starts.
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Mar 22, 2024 23:32
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If Dems went along with it in an election year, given that it's MTG of all people, my instincts suggest that they would come out of that stunt behind not ahead.
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Mar 23, 2024 01:18
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Eric Cantonese posted:I haven't been keeping up that closely, but my understanding was that Tammy Murphy was seen as the favorite because she was the "establishment" choice. Andy Kim going for the seat too is bucking the NJ Democratic Party mainstream. I think Kim's been doing much better than expected, but I don't think he's the favorite. I would say that Kim. is the favorite because he is ahead in polling now. But Murphy has an "infinite money" cheat code on so maybe that will work. Dapper_Swindler posted:
He was in the house for a long time before the Senate.
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Mar 23, 2024 02:00
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Once they had a two vote advantage it was guaranteed to go down to one because anyone who wanted to leave probably didn’t want to be last out the door.
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Mar 23, 2024 02:57
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Gadfly posted:Others have addressed the main problems with it, but another big issue is how the evidence (and its intrepretation of it) presented in the court room can persuade a jury, who probably already have a preconceived notion that forensic science is indisputable, to be biased against the defendent. Just because the defendent's DNA is left at a crime scene in no way means they are guilty of the crime. The point of DNA is to prove that the defendant was there. So if their defense rests on them not being at the scene of the crime in order to not have means, then DNA being at the crime scene can tie them there. It's not foolproof or anything, but not a lot of evidence is. There is also plenty of crimes where DNA is a pretty good indicator that they did the crime, especially if, for example, their semen was inside a rape victim. Kchama fucked around with this message at 09:41 on Mar 23, 2024 |
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Mar 23, 2024 03:12
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So if another Republican quits the House and we get a split House for a bit, who has control? How does a Speaker vote work?
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Mar 23, 2024 03:33
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If Biden has a dem house for the last four months of this term he'll win in a walk.
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Mar 23, 2024 03:59
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Uglycat posted:If Biden has a dem house for the last four months of this term he'll win in a walk. Especially in the (admittedly unlikely) event Sinema and Manchin can be persuaded to play one final round of “vote Yes on literally anything in the Dem party platform we can get smuggled past the parliamentarian”. (Sinema, of course, remains convinced that her legacy rests on the preservation of the filibuster…which, ironically, it likely will.)
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Mar 23, 2024 04:22
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small butter posted:So if another Republican quits the House and we get a split House for a bit, who has control? How does a Speaker vote work? The speaker has to get a majority of votes from the members present and voting. So if no one can get a majority, the House has to keep voting until someone does get a majority, no matter how long it takes. If things are deadlocked for long enough, typically the party leaders will get together and hammer out some kind of compromise deal once everyone's absolutely sick of just holding Speaker votes over and over again.
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Mar 23, 2024 04:43
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Main Paineframe posted:The speaker has to get a majority of votes from the members present and voting. So if no one can get a majority, the House has to keep voting until someone does get a majority, no matter how long it takes. Unfortunately they do get to go home at night and start again tomorrow, it's not an endurance match.
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Mar 23, 2024 08:48
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mutata posted:If Dems went along with it in an election year, given that it's MTG of all people, my instincts suggest that they would come out of that stunt behind not ahead. The republicans are in disarray this is bad for the democrats because...
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Mar 23, 2024 10:33
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Nevermind the giant sucking sound that is all available "money faucet" cash at the RNC being hoovered-up by the Trump Crime Family.
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Mar 23, 2024 15:19
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kdrudy posted:The republicans are in disarray this is bad for the democrats because... I mean, this general sentiment being one that often comes up is exactly why I said what I said, but I also have no actual clue other than vibes from browsing headlines. 
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Mar 23, 2024 15:21
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mutata posted:I mean, this general sentiment being one that often comes up is exactly why I said what I said, but I also have no actual clue other than vibes from browsing headlines. "Democrats force House to become unworkable via procedural trickery (AP) "The House of Representatives today shut down for a third time this year as Congressional Democrats engaged in procedural chicanery , forcing a vote for yet another election of Speaker of the House. It is expected that during the needless wheel spinning thousands of undocumented immigrants will flood into the country as Congress is powerless to approve needed Border Security laws....."
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Mar 23, 2024 15:39
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kdrudy posted:The republicans are in disarray this is bad for the democrats because... Johnson passed a bill that Democrats wanted, over the opposition of diehard right-wing Republicans who opposed the bill. The Dems want to encourage stuff like that. They certainly aren't going to line up to help oust him over it. The Dems left McConnell to deal with the far right himself because he insisted on prioritizing the far right, even as they became more and more difficult to deal with, and refused to negotiate with the Democrats. Since Johnson's a bit more cooperative, they're going to reward him for that cooperation by helping protect him from the far right.
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Mar 23, 2024 17:50
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Main Paineframe posted:Johnson passed a bill that Democrats wanted, over the opposition of diehard right-wing Republicans who opposed the bill. The Dems want to encourage stuff like that. They certainly aren't going to line up to help oust him over it. Just to be clear you meant McCarthy right if you meant the House?
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Mar 23, 2024 18:37
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IIRC they refused to support McCarthy because he went back on some deals they had previously negotiated.
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Mar 23, 2024 19:49
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That plus McCarthy very overtly refused to bargain or even make a pity ask from the dems. He wanted to hard lift the vote on his own with predictable results. Would Johnson bargain in ways that McCarthy wouldn’t? Meaningfully? I understand the notion that dems wouldn’t want to toss out a speaker that has worked with them piecemeal but surely they would expect something in return and would Johnson give that? They wanted power sharing from McCarthy but they’ll save Johnson just because he has extended budget spending levels in ways that may not be sustainable within his own caucus? I just really feel like it’ll come down to what will Johnson give dems if if came to that? And my instinct is nothing, because it makes his caucus problems worse not better to parlay with dems.
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Mar 23, 2024 20:01
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Ellipson posted:OP was being quite literal. MTG’s opponent dropped out a few years ago because her supporters stalked and harassed him and basically ruined his life. Happens in deep red districts across the country. I’m half convinced the woman who kept running doomed campaigns here for years kept signing up because she was single and had no family to put in harm’s way. She had a brick thrown through her apartment window the last time she ran. So uh, what can be done about this (by the Democrats)? It seems bad if your party can’t run a candidate at all in broad swathes of the country.
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Mar 23, 2024 20:27
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I mean, in theory, you would investigate it as acts of terrorism because it's the literal definition of it. In practice, well, you'd hate to offend the fragile people who do that.
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Mar 23, 2024 20:40
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von Metternich posted:So uh, what can be done about this (by the Democrats)? It seems bad if your party can’t run a candidate at all in broad swathes of the country. You seem to think that this is somehow the fault of the Democrats. Did you see my post about my coworker running for school board? Now multiply that by all the people running as democrats in deep red areas in races that actually have national significance.
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Mar 23, 2024 20:47
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Even if they don't get harassed, you can't run a candidate without finding someone who wants to run and running for congress is a lot of work when you know ahead of time you're going to lose by 50 percent to a QAnon business owner who moved there from the Atlanta suburbs 6 months ago because she wanted to run in a red district.
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Mar 23, 2024 21:06
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James Garfield posted:Even if they don't get harassed, you can't run a candidate without finding someone who wants to run and running for congress is a lot of work when you know ahead of time you're going to lose by 50 percent to a QAnon business owner who moved there from the Atlanta suburbs 6 months ago because she wanted to run in a red district. And you have to put a lot of your personal time and money into that losing bid just on hopes your opponent gets caught bribing a judge with drugs while in bed with a sheep or whatever it takes to actually win. Republicans often fail to run candidates in sufficiently blue districts for the same reason. They're better at scraping up no-hopers than the Dems, but a lot of that comes down to having a larger pool of independently wealthy and/or obsessive people willing to spend a year on a vanity run.
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Mar 23, 2024 21:16
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