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FLIPADELPHIA
Apr 27, 2007

Heavy Shit
Grimey Drawer
There were reachable potential Trump voters in 2016, and a lot of people did vote for him just to, as Michael Moore put it, throw up the middle finger and see what would happen. But that was before he ran the country for 4 years as a completely insane dipshit. There were reachable potential Trump voters in 2020 because for a lot of moderate Republicans, they had been forced to confront the reality of what Trump is.

There are very few if any reachable potential Trump voters in 2024. Everyone knows who and what he is at this point and if someone is seriously considering voting for him regardless of their rationale, nothing you could possibly say would change their mind. Am I saying there are literally zero people that could be talked out of voting for him? No, what I'm saying is that the amount of effort to figure out if a given person is one of the 85% of Trump voters who think a conviction in criminal court isn't disqualifying is not a very good use of your time IMO.

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VikingofRock
Aug 24, 2008




I think that Christianity plays a much bigger part in shaping rural American politics than we usually give it credit for. (It obviously also shapes the politics of other groups, but we are discussing rural Americans here.) It's often treated in articles as an undercurrent, but I honestly think it's very fundamental and important in understanding what is going on.

Why do rural Americans put so much value on "hard work", and thus reject "handouts"? Christianity.

Why is there so much homophobia / transphobia? Christianity.

And, of course, Christianity played a huge part in shaping racism in this country, but we all like to memory hole that.

And Trump is often treated like a borderline-Messianic figure, here to revive Christianity in America.

Obviously, not all sects of Christianity are like this, but the sects that are are very popular in rural America.

Civilized Fishbot
Apr 3, 2011

VikingofRock posted:

I think that Christianity plays a much bigger part in shaping rural American politics than we usually give it credit for...

I think these are generally examples of Christianity being shaped by the prevalent politics, like what happens with every religion, so I don't know how useful it is to say that Christianity is "shaping rural American politics."

The Protestant work ethic, curse-of-Ham Christian racism, and pro-Trump Christianity all developed in reaction to a surge in demand for bourgeois/slavedriver/petty-bourgeois ideology - they're not any more intrinsic to the textual core of the religion than their polar opposites (anarchist Christianity, Black-liberation Christianity, Trump-is-antiChrist Christianity).

Put Marxistly, they're just one slice of developments in the superstructure driven by changes in the base, just like we've seen plenty of bourgeois/racist/pro-Trump tendencies arise in the world of "secular" art or science. It's not a uniquely Christian phenomenon or even one where Christianity behaves very differently from other cultural identities/collective traditions. There's Zionist and anti-Zionist Judaism depending on the community's material relationship with the State of Israel, there's pacificist and pro-war Buddhism depending on whether the community is at peace or at war, there's nationalist and anti-nationalist Islam... etc. Religions are often pretty easy to contort into any way you want to answer modern economic or political questions because they're generally oriented around texts and traditions that originate from long before those questions were coherent, and even if not, they're highly open to interpretation. And it's not just religion either - does the popularity of the "Drapetomania" idea prove that psychological science had a powerful influence on the politics of the Antebellum South, or only that the politics of the Antebellum South had such a powerful influence on their local psychological-scientific output that the plantation class could commission bespoke diagnoses for class enemies?

Basically I think you're mixing up cause and effect. Rural America isn't the way it is because "the sects that are very popular in rural America" are the way they are. The sects that are very popular in rural America are the way they are because rural America is the way it is: a political-economic landscape characterized by a coalition between bourgeois, petty-bourgeois, and White proletariat, and correspondingly its cultural output often celebrates wealth, work, and/or Whiteness.

I do think you can draw a causal line between Paul of Tarsus' ideas about gender and sex and the extent of modern American homophobia, but even then, anyone who spends too much time online today knows about the rise of a sort of secular homophobia/transphobia so it's not as simple as "Christian/religious influence is why we have to deal with it."

Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 00:03 on Apr 8, 2024

Trazz
Jun 11, 2008

Dopilsya posted:

So according to you, 75 million of your countrymen have no motivation, thought, or creed beyond "racism" that could possibly be appealed to. Well I suppose that's a good demonstration of why you can't win an election.

75 million Americans are either racist, or so incredibly stupid as to be repeatedly tricked by racists into advancing their cause, yes.

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010
There are, at the very least, 75 million stupid Americans. We all have that one uncle or cousin who is a dumb piece of poo poo that has gotten conned every year of his life and Trump is just the newest one.

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

He's a package deal tho. Anybody voting for, say, low inflation Trump, is at least fine with all the rest as the price for [low inflation]. Anyone voting for him is actively choosing the whole package.

more importantly, a vote for trump is an announcement about what isn't a dealbreaker for you, and in this case involving a man who leaves little to ambiguity about

Riptor
Apr 13, 2003

here's to feelin' good all the time

Dopilsya posted:

So according to you, 75 million of your countrymen have no motivation, thought, or creed beyond "racism" that could possibly be appealed to. Well I suppose that's a good demonstration of why you can't win an election.

what part of American history do you think disproves this

Bel Shazar
Sep 14, 2012

75 million is way too low a number. At best that's the union of "I'm all about the racism" and "I can be bothered to get up and vote"

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

Majorian posted:

While I have no doubt whatsoever that Trump is a hardened transphobe, trans genocide isn't something he's come out in favor of. The GOP on the state level? Absolutely. And Trump will at best turn a blind eye to those bigoted policies that his party advocates. But you mentioned what he's selling. What he's selling is "I'll run the economy better than Biden so that your community gets its jobs back" and "I'll protect you from the scary non-white immigrants." Obviously we know that the way he intends to do this is "bulldoze all undesirables into a giant incinerator," but I don't think most voters in general dig even that deeply into his policies.

e: and to be clear, I'm not saying any of this to excuse Trump voters or anything. I'm not making any sort of moral argument whatsoever. I'm interested in figuring out the truth behind what motivates their voting behavior. I'm not convinced that "it's 100% hate" is an accurate answer.

This is completely false. Trump was absolutely in favor of trans genocide on the federal level, such as the trans military ban and other policies that rolled back the rights of LBGTQ+ citizens across the board when in office. Just like how Nazi Germany banned jews from the military, it's one of the essential steps of genocide. Subsequently for his current campaign Trump has significantly dialed up the rhetoric even further and has promised to take those state level policies and make them nation-wide policies.

As an example:


That's pretty indisputably genocidal rhetoric from Trump's own mouth.

Civilized Fishbot
Apr 3, 2011
There were a few times in 2015/16 that Trump made modest efforts to depict himself as a sort of Log Cabin Republican but then he became a normal homo/trans-phobic Republican by the time he entered office.

quote:

President Donald Trump said he would be different — the first Republican president to embrace LGBTQ people. He said the key acronym (“L, G, B, T … Q”) at the 2016 Republican convention. He held up a pride flag at a campaign event. He initially defended the right of Caitlyn Jenner, a transgender woman, to use the bathroom that aligns with her gender identity. He tweeted, “Thank you to the LGBT community! I will fight for you while Hillary brings in more people that will threaten your freedoms and beliefs.”

https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/7/26/16034404/trump-lgbtq-rights

I wonder if that reflects genuine ideological drift (he became more homo/trans-phobic as he surrounded himself with Republicans) or if it was a calculation that normal Republicans are more electable than Log Cabin republicans. Probably a mixture of both.

Honestly it feels like he/the GOP started going much harder after gay and trans people after their efforts to villify Muslims as internal enemies fizzled out. Maybe because constitutionally it's easier to go after gay/trans people than Muslims, maybe because people don't really worry about their kids converting to Islam but a lot of people do worry about their kids coming out as gay/trans. Maybe it's that in the years leading up to 2016 there actually were sporadic incidents where some wackjob got hooked on radical Islam and killed people in the US, and that hasn't happened for a while. Maybe it's just like in 1984 where they have to find a new enemy every couple years or the hate goes stale. But there was a time that the Trump-GOP message was "we alone will defend gays from Muslims" and now it's more commonly the opposite.

quote:

Twelve years ago, House Republicans questioned whether the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) was a “terrorist organization.” Last week, CAIR was on site at the board meeting, lobbying for a policy that would let Muslim students skip the LGBTQ reading, to fix what Maryland CAIR director Zainab Chaudry called the “growing sense of hurt and betrayal experienced by our communities.”

Their protests grabbed conservative media attention after a Montgomery County legislator asked why Muslim parents “were on the same side of an issue as White supremacists and outright bigots.” She apologized. But not before Fox News host Laura Ingraham told her viewers that “people of faith have been waiting for Muslims to step up,” and brought on Kareem Monib, a Muslim parent in Howard County, Md. to discuss what was happening.

The irony of the moment was not lost on her guest: “Five years ago Laura was saying we shouldn’t have Muslims in this country,” Monib, the founder of the pro opt-out group Coalition of Virtue, told Semafor. “Now she’s saying: Thank God, the Muslims are here!”

But not completely the opposite - Trump is still pushing the Muslim ban.

Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 01:57 on Apr 8, 2024

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!
Boeing is in the news again!

https://twitter.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1777070092687188476

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/07/boeing-engine-part-fell-off-during-southwest-flight-takeoff-faa.html

quote:

An engine cowling fell off of a Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-800 and struck a wing flap during takeoff from Denver International Airport, the Federal Aviation Administration said Sunday.

The FAA said Southwest Flight 3695 was on its way to Houston’s William P. Hobby Airport and safely returned to the gate at Denver at 8:15 a.m. local time. Southwest said customers on the flight transferred to a different aircraft and were scheduled to arrive at their destination three hours late.

“Our Maintenance teams are reviewing the aircraft,” Southwest said. The FAA said it is investigating the incident. Southwest didn’t immediately respond when asked when the plane and engine last underwent maintenance.

It's an older model of 737 though. Not sure if that's better or worse.

quote:

The plane is an older model of the Boeing 737 than the Max jets. Boeing is under heightened regulatory scrutiny after a January incident when a door plug blew off a nearly new 737 Max 9 when the Alaska Airlines flight was at 16,000 feet, causing a near-catastrophe.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Raenir Salazar posted:

This is completely false. Trump was absolutely in favor of trans genocide on the federal level, such as the trans military ban and other policies that rolled back the rights of LBGTQ+ citizens across the board when in office. Just like how Nazi Germany banned jews from the military, it's one of the essential steps of genocide. Subsequently for his current campaign Trump has significantly dialed up the rhetoric even further and has promised to take those state level policies and make them nation-wide policies.

As an example:

That's pretty indisputably genocidal rhetoric from Trump's own mouth.

I have no doubt that he is in favor of this, but the point I was making is that Trump's stance on trans people does not seem to be one of the top reasons why most of his voters support him. It's red meat to the most rabid culture warriors in his coalition, but I don't think those people are necessarily representative of rural voters as a whole.

shimmy shimmy
Nov 13, 2020

Probably better for Boeing, because after a certain point issues like that parts coming off or not being secured become maintenance issues rather than manufacturing ones. Maybe not better for them to be in the news again but my guess is this one is probably not their fault, the newest 737-800 was manufactured over four years ago by this point. Most likely another Southwest maintenance fuckup like is mentioned in the article.

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

wherever i saw it first someone had commented that what is happening to boeing is actually representative of what has been happening to almost all industry, where it has been consumed with fully financialized hedge fund culture whose only governing rational interest is for the existing corporate suite to work out how best to cash out when it's their turn to cash out, and with no structural interest left in human wellbeing or the longer term health of the company

and boeing is just the canary in the coal mine because the nature of, you know, airplanes ... and aviation, and the way that failures in such spheres are lurid and sensational and get everyone's attention, is the only reason why it makes the corruption impossible to hide, so it's a canary in the coal mine

elsewhere where c-suite looting is easier to hide, all the same jack welch disintegration carries on at the same accelerated rate. we actually living enshittification in everything, not just the internet

Fister Roboto
Feb 21, 2008

Staluigi posted:

jack welch disintegration

Highly recommend reading The Man Who Broke Capitalism to learn more about exactly this btw.

Star Man
Jun 1, 2008

There's a star maaaaaan
Over the rainbow
It's game day.

Good luck to all of you chasing the eclipse. I have my ten-inch Dobsonian telescope packed in my back seat, a cooler, drawing pad and tackle box, and a whole lot of hope things work out for viewing.

Didn't think I'd be diverting from Erie, Pennsylvania to Akron, Ohio, but here we go.

Clear skies.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Majorian posted:

This sounds an awful lot like a strategy that famously had, to put it generously, mixed returns in 2016:

https://twitter.com/HeerJeet/status/943119232417521666

But it did work out that way in 2020 and 2022 and the special elections since then.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Staluigi posted:

wherever i saw it first someone had commented that what is happening to boeing is actually representative of what has been happening to almost all industry, where it has been consumed with fully financialized hedge fund culture whose only governing rational interest is for the existing corporate suite to work out how best to cash out when it's their turn to cash out, and with no structural interest left in human wellbeing or the longer term health of the company

and boeing is just the canary in the coal mine because the nature of, you know, airplanes ... and aviation, and the way that failures in such spheres are lurid and sensational and get everyone's attention, is the only reason why it makes the corruption impossible to hide, so it's a canary in the coal mine

elsewhere where c-suite looting is easier to hide, all the same jack welch disintegration carries on at the same accelerated rate. we actually living enshittification in everything, not just the internet

All of our business education, propaganda, and financial regulations insist that all companies are simply legally binding executive games whose only winning metric is stock price. Goods, products, and services are simply the unique tools that the executives have available to goose that stock price for their current play through. The fact that so many companies have managed to still provide something for consumers to actual consume is a minor miracle.

Inglonias
Mar 7, 2013

I WILL PUT THIS FLAG ON FREAKING EVERYTHING BECAUSE IT IS SYMBOLIC AS HELL SOMEHOW

If things were working "the way they were supposed to", the companies that didn't provide working products or good services would fail to make money.

Whether or not capitalism can ever be a sufficient motivator for that on its own is another question. I feel like the need for regulation tilts things towards "no"

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
In a very policy-lite election, so far, housing policy is finally getting a spotlight at the federal level after being delegated to the local level for decades.

Trump has now released a partial housing policy for his 2024 campaign.

According to analysts, the only part of the platform that may help somewhat is the promotion of building in "economic opportunity zones," but those are seen as incredibly inefficient methods of increasing housing and business that generally take it away from other areas.

The other policies are expected to either raise housing prices or maintain limits on supply - which is not too surprising because that is the explicit goal according to the policy statement, so the policies are succeeding in that regard.

The Highlights:

- Pursue policies that will preserve or increase housing value.



- "Protect the suburban way of life" and "Preserve Community and Neighborhood Choice" by preventing states from using federal funds to build increased density housing in suburban areas.

quote:

"People living their Suburban Lifestyle Dream that you will no longer be bothered or financially hurt by having low-income housing."

- Change the measurements HUD uses to determine housing discrimination by eliminating the "disparate impact" rule.

quote:

The disparate impact rule, which the Obama administration codified into law in 2013, is a legal tool used to combat unfair housing practices against minorities, especially practices that on their surface don’t employ explicitly racist or discriminatory terms.

Among the proposed revisions is the prohibition of “single events” from falling under disparate impact. A single event is when a business or government entity gives preference in one instance, even if that preference shows up repeatedly.

Here's an example: A mortgage lender providing a sales incentive to loan officers that encourages them to market riskier loans with higher costs to people of color could be considered a single event because the incentive might not have been repeated in a systematic way. Yet the sales record shows evidence that discrimination has taken place in isolated instances.

And land decisions—such as where a developer might decide to build—which face individual review, might be interpreted as a single event.

Several fair housing organizations used the disparate impact rule to settle a case that alleged Facebook unlawfully made it possible for advertisers to direct housing, employment and credit ads to Facebook users based on race, color, gender, age, national origin, family status and disability.

“The proposed revision to the disparate impact rule basically makes it impossible to bring a lawsuit against discriminatory algorithms. It creates a huge loophole,” says Solomon Greene, a senior fellow in the Research to Action Lab and the Metropolitan Housing and Communities Policy Center at the Urban Institute, a Washington D.C.-based think tank.

- Create Opportunity Zones designed to attract investors to neglected neighborhoods.

quote:

The Trump administration created Opportunity Zones (OZ) as an incentive for businesses to invest in low-income and economically distressed neighborhoods, under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Investments like retail centers and affordable housing would be eligible for tax breaks.

The Urban Institute reviewed how successful these zones have been in stimulating the economy in targeted areas; the results were mixed. The upside was that some investors were more aware of neighborhoods they might not have otherwise considered. The downside was that “the vast majority of OZ capital appears to be flowing into real estate, not into operating businesses,” which would create jobs and stimulate the economy in these areas.

Some critics of the tax break say there are not enough rules or reporting required to make sure the program is working, while others believe it’s just another boost for the rich masked as a good deed.

The idea of Opportunity Zones makes sense, Tanner says. Still, the evidence doesn’t show that it’s as successful as I thought it would be a few years ago. “The problem is you tend to move existing businesses from one part of town to another rather than creating new business for people living in those neighborhoods.”

- Impose tariffs on Canadian lumber.

quote:

At a time when housing supply is low, President Trump’s 2017 tariffs on Canadian lumber have put a strain on construction. The administration imposed the tariffs after arguing that Canadian companies were selling lumber at prices unfair to U.S. firms.

Today, the current supply of houses on the market sits at 4.7 months, which means it would take that much time to deplete the existing housing stock. Generally, a six-month supply will give homeowners moderate price appreciation; anything less drives prices up.

“Housing construction has led every economic recovery in every single recession except for the housing crisis in 2008,” the National Housing Conference’s Dworkin says. “Housing is jobs and jobs are housing. Right now, housing construction is falling off a cliff. We need to change that immediately.”

U.S. tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber averages just over 20% and are passed on to builders, which “could hurt the housing sector and the economy,” Gerald Howard, CEO of the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB), a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization, wrote in an Aug. 7 letter to the White House. He called on the president to “address skyrocketing lumber prices and chronic shortages’ of lumber.”

Howard asked Trump to return to the negotiating table with Canada to forge a new agreement that would reduce tariffs and ease the burden on American construction efforts. He also urged the president to call on domestic lumber producers to ramp up their output.

- Give single-sex homeless shelters the right to turn away transgender people.

quote:

In a move that could hurt homeless transgender people who often face discrimination, Trump has promised to revive a rule started during his presidency that was repealed by the Biden Administration. Under Trump, HUD changed the Equal Access Rule to give single-sex shelters the right to turn away people whose genders do not match their biological sex. This change better attuned to the needs of religious shelter providers, according to a HUD statement.

Trump's Equal Access Rule states that shelters who turn away transgender people must refer them to another shelter, but this directive is inadequate, says Ann Oliva, a visiting senior fellow with the housing team at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonpartisan research institute based in D.C.

“People experiencing homelessness already face multiple barriers to entry, such as limited capacity, sobriety rules and family size limitations,” Oliva said. “This additional barrier for transgender and nonbinary people would likely cause vulnerable people to choose to stay in dangerous or unsheltered situations over a system that overtly discriminates against them.”

https://newrepublic.com/article/178952/trump-hud-housing-policy-disaster
https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2020/08/25/how-would-a-second-trump-term-impact-major-housing-issues/

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 15:07 on Apr 8, 2024

socialsecurity
Aug 30, 2003

Those most be those economic advantages that Trump is offering rural voters that were brought up earlier. Its gross that "make the housing crisis even worse" is a campaign platform now.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

socialsecurity posted:

Those most be those economic advantages that Trump is offering rural voters that were brought up earlier. Its gross that "make the housing crisis even worse" is a campaign platform now.

Honestly, I don't think a platform of "protect property values" and "don't let builders/the government ruin your neighborhood" is going to be a wildly unpopular sell.

He is just being a tiny bit more explicit about the unstated reasons we have had bad housing policy nearly everywhere for the last 40 years.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Honestly, I don't think a platform of "protect property values" and "don't let builders/the government ruin your neighborhood" is going to be a wildly unpopular sell.

He is just being a tiny bit more explicit about the unstated reasons we have had bad housing policy nearly everywhere for the last 40 years.
Yeah just what I was thinking as well while reading that post, that has to be a pretty broadly popular platform for NIMBY/muh property values reasons. And it immediately clashes with the "offer something for the rural/suburban voters" that was just being discussed. More affordable housing everywhere is what society needs, but "don't let poor people here" is what the voters will vote for.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

VikingofRock posted:

I think that Christianity plays a much bigger part in shaping rural American politics than we usually give it credit for. (It obviously also shapes the politics of other groups, but we are discussing rural Americans here.) It's often treated in articles as an undercurrent, but I honestly think it's very fundamental and important in understanding what is going on.

Why do rural Americans put so much value on "hard work", and thus reject "handouts"? Christianity.

Why is there so much homophobia / transphobia? Christianity.

And, of course, Christianity played a huge part in shaping racism in this country, but we all like to memory hole that.

And Trump is often treated like a borderline-Messianic figure, here to revive Christianity in America.

Obviously, not all sects of Christianity are like this, but the sects that are are very popular in rural America.

I’m from the rural south and my observation was always that bigotry is driving the cart far more than Christianity, because frankly Christianity can be whatever you want it to be. You can do a very leftist reading of the religion. It honestly takes some effort not to. People fall into particular sects of Christianity because they are coherent with their preexisting worldview.

Now, they’re both shaping each other for sure, and people who feel a little sort of way about, say, gay people are going to go somewhere where they’re told “gay teachers want to recruit your students” and get radicalized in a way.

In my experience Christians who fall out of the religion don’t tend to suddenly drop the negative aspects that were present, unless (like in my case) recognition and rejection of those negative aspects are what led to the falling out.

Shammypants
May 25, 2004

Let me tell you about true luxury.

It's certain types of faith, not just Christianity at large, that matters. Catholics, Baptists, Mormons and on are going to present their own issues and complications for politics.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Biden to announce the details of his second attempt at Student Debt Cancellation at an event in Wisconsin today.

This plan is more targeted to comply with the Supreme Court ruling and authorized under the 1965 Higher Education Act authority instead of the 2003 HEROES Act.

Some details will be announced at the event and later this week, but the info they have leaked so far indicates:

1) It will cover about 75% of the people under the original loan plan (roughly 30 million people) and not be a flat forgiveness amount - some people will have all of their unpaid interest forgiven, some people will have their entire balance forgiven, and some people will have up to $20,000 of their loans forgiven.

The amount/type of forgiveness depends on your income (anyone making over $120,000 each year - or $240,000 for married couples - for the past 3 years is capped at $20,000 forgiveness for unpaid interest only) and specific circumstances.

2) It will be more targeted forgiveness and target these specific groups:

- Borrowers who owe more than their original principle balance or have unpaid interest (roughly 25 million people)

- Borrowers who have had their loans for at least 20 years (roughly 2 million people)

- Borrowers who would have qualified for previous loan forgiveness programs, PSLF, or income-based repayment forgiveness in the last 20 years, but did not sign up for them (roughly 2 million people)

- Borrowers who attended "low-value" schools where the cost of the degree greatly exceeds their potential income (no specifics on details, unknown amount of people - Politico estimates about 200,000 people)

- Borrowers who face "economic hardship" due to their student loans (no specifics, but this is the big category that could be very broad or very narrow depending on how they define it, unknown amount of people)

- Everyone on existing Income-Based Repayment programs will be converted to the new SAVE plans.

Only those who were enrolled in "low-value" educations, are facing "economic hardship", or have had their loans for at least 20 years are eligible for unlimited total forgiveness.

Everyone else will have all of their unpaid interest wiped out and then moved to a SAVE plan where interest cannot accrue beyond the principle.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1777293701984801237

quote:

Biden’s next student debt relief plan will cover more than 30M borrowers

President Joe Biden will announce on Monday his plans to cancel student debt for more than 30 million Americans by this fall, kicking off an election year sprint to deliver on a promise that was thwarted by the Supreme Court the first time around.

Biden will travel to Madison, Wisconsin, to pitch new details about his second attempt at canceling large swaths of outstanding student debt. And the White House is dispatching other top administration officials to promote the plan Monday during visits to other swing states.

Vice President Kamala Harris will be in Pennsylvania, and second gentleman Douglas Emhoff will travel to Arizona. Education Secretary Miguel Cardona will travel to New York.

The administration over the past several months had already outlined the contours of the new student debt plan, which takes a more targeted approach to loan forgiveness than the across-the-board reductions of $10,000 or $20,000 that Biden sought for more than 40 million borrowers in 2022.

But Biden on Monday will confirm for the first time that the scope of his new plans will approach a similar scale, covering tens of millions of Americans.

“President Biden will use every tool available to cancel student loan debt for as many borrowers as possible, no matter how many times Republican elected officials try to stand in his way,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters in previewing the plans Sunday.

The president is expected to preview that his latest proposal will forgive unpaid interest for some 25 million Americans who now owe more on their loans than they originally borrowed because of ballooning interest.

The plan will also provide relief to about 2 million borrowers who’ve carried their debts for decades and another 2 million borrowers who would have qualified for existing federal programs but failed to enroll, administration officials said.

Another approximately 200,000 borrowers who attended “low-value programs” would also see relief. The administration is also pursuing efforts to provide relief to “millions” of borrowers experiencing financial hardship, though it did not specify precisely how many borrowers would be covered by that part of the plan.

Administration officials are up against a ticking clock to go through the remaining regulatory hoops to finalize and implement Biden’s next student debt relief plan.

Officials said that they would formally propose the new regulations for public comment in the “coming months” and subsequently finalize the plan so that borrowers can begin seeing relief “this fall.” They declined on Sunday to offer a more specific timeline.

The announcement comes as Biden is seeking to make it clear to voters in battleground states what his administration has done to fulfill his student debt relief campaign promises. Early 2024 polls have also shown Biden lagging in garnering the support of young voters, many of whom were galvanized in part to vote for Biden in 2020 because of his debt relief plan.

Also looming over the administration’s efforts is the inevitable legal challenge from Republican-led states or other conservative groups that have railed against the idea of mass loan forgiveness as illegal.

The latest plan relies on a separate legal authority, the Higher Education Act, than the Covid-related emergency powers that were the basis for the administration’s first plan.

A senior administration official told reporters that they’ve “studied the Supreme Court’s decision carefully” and feel “confident” that the new plan is sufficiently different to pass muster at the court.

What’s in the plan: Biden’s proposal has yet to be formally unveiled through the regulatory process the administration is undertaking after the Supreme Court blocked his first attempt to cancel as much as $400 billion of outstanding debt.

The plan is expected to cancel some interest for millions of borrowers with loan balances greater than what they originally borrowed. The White House estimates that 25 million borrowers owe more than they borrowed, and 23 million of those people will get all of their interest canceled if their balance is more than it was when they started paying back their loans. The plan would cancel up to $20,000 of unpaid interest accrued after entering repayment for these borrowers, regardless of their income.

Single borrowers who earn $120,000 or less and married borrowers who earn $240,000 or less and are enrolled in the administration’s new income-driven repayment plan known as SAVE, or any other income-driven repayment plan, would be eligible to have their entire balance of unpaid interest canceled. Borrowers enrolled in the plans who are eligible for the relief would not have to apply for this.

Additionally, the administration wants to cancel debt for about 2.5 million borrowers who entered repayment for their undergraduate loans at least 20 years ago or their graduate loans at least 25 years ago. Borrowers who are facing hardships and cannot pay their loans back and those who enrolled in low financial value programs would also be eligible for debt cancellation.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 16:08 on Apr 8, 2024

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Shammypants posted:

It's certain types of faith, not just Christianity at large, that matters. Catholics, Baptists, Mormons and on are going to present their own issues and complications for politics.

Catholics are a good example of what I’m saying, I think. Because politically the Catholic religion itself is probably more explicitly problematic than most Christian sects, but since it has a big urban tilt to its adherents they on average tend to be less right wing.

It also may “help” that right wing radicals targeted them for a long time.

Ravenfood
Nov 4, 2011
Moving everyone to income-based plans where the interest cannot exceed the principal seems like it could be more durable than relying on PSLF forgiveness,which could be dismantled more easily.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



It seems like the strategy for Trump's campaign with abortion is to not talk about it, but if they win they are going to attempt to use the Comstock Act to get abortion banned federally

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1777332883008479446

Halloween Jack
Sep 12, 2003
I WILL CUT OFF BOTH OF MY ARMS BEFORE I VOTE FOR ANYONE THAT IS MORE POPULAR THAN BERNIE!!!!!

VikingofRock posted:

Why do rural Americans put so much value on "hard work", and thus reject "handouts"? Christianity.
"Because religion" is a lazy explanation. Why religion, then?

Are rural people actually obsessed with "hard work?" Do they "reject handouts?" Why are we even discussing "rural Americans" as if they're a distinct ethnoreligious group?

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

FlamingLiberal posted:

It seems like the strategy for Trump's campaign with abortion is to not talk about it, but if they win they are going to attempt to use the Comstock Act to get abortion banned federally

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1777332883008479446

I feel like it’s going to be hard to stay quiet when state-level republicans keep going hog wild

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Halloween Jack posted:

"Because religion" is a lazy explanation. Why religion, then?

It is exceptionally lazy as an explanation if one is aware of the history of religious socialism in the US and it’s eventual relationship with one of the two political parties and several recent presidents / notable politicians.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

haveblue posted:

I feel like it’s going to be hard to stay quiet when state-level republicans keep going hog wild

that and the second trump stays quiet about it for too long the dumb uber trad types start screaming about why isnt trump talking about it.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

haveblue posted:

I feel like it’s going to be hard to stay quiet when state-level republicans keep going hog wild

The plan is to assuage swing state voters who might be nervous about Trump winning meaning a nationwide abortion ban. They are also telling state-level Republicans to calm down until after the election.

quote:

Mr. Mitchell, who represented Mr. Trump in arguments before the Supreme Court over whether the former president could appear on the ballot in Colorado, indicated that anti-abortion strategists had purposefully been quiet about their more advanced plans, given the political liability the issue has become for Republicans.

“I hope he doesn’t know about the existence of Comstock, because I just don’t want him to shoot off his mouth,” Mr. Mitchell said of Mr. Trump. “I think the pro-life groups should keep their mouths shut as much as possible until the election.”

Tatsuta Age
Apr 21, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 3 hours!
it's fine I'm sure Biden is exactly the same on abortion as well, secretly

single-mode fiber
Dec 30, 2012

If there's one silver lining to the very dark cloud of social media amplifying and reinforcing the right wing, it's that the right's adjacency to grifting makes them incapable of shutting the gently caress up about anything for any meaningful length of time. They all have to compete with one another for the attention of the audience, and trying to purposely not talk about something is effectively just driving your audience to someone else who will keep talking about it. They all have to constantly try to differentiate themselves by being even louder, even more extreme, etc. Even if it turns away the average voter by looking too crazy, as long as they can keep their audience fiefdom intact, the grift can keep flowing.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

single-mode fiber posted:

If there's one silver lining to the very dark cloud of social media amplifying and reinforcing the right wing, it's that the right's adjacency to grifting makes them incapable of shutting the gently caress up about anything for any meaningful length of time. They all have to compete with one another for the attention of the audience, and trying to purposely not talk about something is effectively just driving your audience to someone else who will keep talking about it. They all have to constantly try to differentiate themselves by being even louder, even more extreme, etc. Even if it turns away the average voter by looking too crazy, as long as they can keep their audience fiefdom intact, the grift can keep flowing.

This being a benefit relies on a critical mass of the electorate not liking those views enough to vote against them, which I had a lot more faith in a decade ago. Abortion does seem to be the one that moves needles though at least.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

(and can't post for 3 days!)

Friend in CDMX posted the first picture of the eclipse on his FB:


Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

single-mode fiber posted:

If there's one silver lining to the very dark cloud of social media amplifying and reinforcing the right wing, it's that the right's adjacency to grifting makes them incapable of shutting the gently caress up about anything for any meaningful length of time. They all have to compete with one another for the attention of the audience, and trying to purposely not talk about something is effectively just driving your audience to someone else who will keep talking about it. They all have to constantly try to differentiate themselves by being even louder, even more extreme, etc. Even if it turns away the average voter by looking too crazy, as long as they can keep their audience fiefdom intact, the grift can keep flowing.

this. the crazies and hardliners in trumps group wont shut up and will scream the hardcore poo poo forever because the crazies get spooked if they arnt being assuaged constantly.

Fork of Unknown Origins posted:

This being a benefit relies on a critical mass of the electorate not liking those views enough to vote against them, which I had a lot more faith in a decade ago. Abortion does seem to be the one that moves needles though at least.

sorta. america was way way way more socially conservative not even 10 years ago, id say the pendulum started to swing since the end of the obama years and faster during trump. obviously their is still ALOT of work to do but i think a silent majority of folks in the US are mostly vaguely socially liberal in a "live and let live" sense. should that be better sure, but i think the GOP basicaly screaming fog horn bigot poo poo, freaks the normies out. and the fact that the GOP is just doubling down on trad freak anti female stuff, hurts them more. like 15 years ago, we were still debating if even civil unions would be a step. now most people dont care about gay marriage and alot of u40s are chill about most LGBTQ stuff. lines in abortion worked when stuff was hypotherical but now its not.

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Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Biden is speaking about the new student debt plan now.

So far, the new information he's provided is:

- The interest forgiveness would kick in by early fall and the other provisions would kick in by next summer.

- Final rules will be out for the mandatory public comment period in the next month.

- Didn't specify what is required to fall into the "financial hardship" full forgiveness category, but gave examples of "has medical debt," "has childcare expenses," and "loan payments make up a large portion of their after-tax income."

- People who received loans to attend "career training programs" that weren't specifically for college will be eligible for full forgiveness if their program meets the same "low-value" standard used for college degrees.

- Interest forgiveness for everyone and full debt forgiveness for people with loans older than 20 years or who qualified for other forgiveness programs would be automatic with no application required.

- About 4.5 million people would get their entire balance wiped out (about 25% of the estimates compared to the original plan), but around 32 million people (about 75% of the total amount compared to the original plan) will get at least $5,000 in relief from the interest-only forgiveness.

- The average borrower would get about $7,000 in relief from the interest forgiveness. Benefit is capped at $20k of interest forgiveness for people with income above $120k (or $240k if married), but no cap if you are below the income threshold.

- These categories were chosen because they have been used and held up to legal scrutiny before. The scale is different, but they think this will pass court muster as outlined in the Supreme Court decision.

- The first half of the SAVE plan kicked in last year and the new disposable income payment caps and calculations will kick in this Summer - making the new SAVE plan fully implemented by the end of Summer. People on existing IDR plans will not be transferred automatically onto SAVE plans until next year, but they can do it manually now.

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