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SKULL.GIF posted:I don't know if it's just because of the timing of when I was paying attention to the NFL or something like that, but it sure seems like there are a shitload of players who are sons of former players nowadays. 10, 20 years ago there didn't seem like there were nearly that much. The only one from that time window (10-20 years ago) I could remember off the top of my head that played for the Packers is Clay Matthews. Because players make enough money nowadays to like be able to easily afford the best training, the best everything for their kids. in a way that like 40-30 years ago they were not making that much money to dump into training their kids, and also like generally sports science was worse. You mix all that knowledge of training and nutrition, with the genes of someone who has already shown they are a 1% of 1% athlete, along with access and money for like pro level trainers from a young age and you have a pretty decent shot of creating another extremely high level athlete. Not always obviously, but will be higher than the average person's chance.
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Apr 10, 2024 04:00
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I think having daddy's genes is a great start.
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Apr 10, 2024 04:17
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It's insane how much the chances of becoming somebody in the NFL rests in high school starting time and residence. Like no high school coach would ever turn down starting time to a son of a famous NFLer and if they're living in a rich area of California or Texas they're getting hype from the get go. That gets you the high recruit status to get playing time freshman or sophomore year which then compounds your chances to put up good tape to get drafted. Having the money and training knowledge is a massive leg up. Same goes for coaches. You get to skip the entire grind of getting your praxis and teaching at a high school to get a coaching gig to get recognized in state championships to get the college position to get the NFL poaching. Sports are completely unfair to outsiders. Like half of FCS is made up of quality players that could easily start in the FBS but they get no scouts going out to their podunk town.
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Apr 10, 2024 04:36
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kidcoelacanth posted:re: MHJ it's worth noting that Literally Jerry Rice's kid is in this draft and he ain't poo poo Rice's kid isn't his dad, but I wouldn't say he ain't poo poo
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Apr 10, 2024 07:28
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Sataere posted:Rice's kid isn't his dad, but I wouldn't say he ain't poo poo Edit: whoops misread. I thought the scuttle butt about him was that he doesn't jump off the page but he's got decent technical chops and could be a better pro than college player.
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Apr 10, 2024 07:48
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The Beast is up https://theathletic.com/5399690/2024/04/10/nfl-draft-2024-the-beast-dane-brugler/ Maye STRENGTHS: Built well with prototypical size and room to continue filling out … has a fluid, explosive release with above -average velocity to drive the ball and make every throw on the field … smartly alters his ball speeds and delivers with loft and touch when needed … shows a good feel for hot routes and checkdowns … still a novice in this area but has gotten better using pumps and eye manipulation … quick feet on three-step drops and when reacting to pocket pressure … tape is full of dot throws while on the move (sprints, rollouts, etc.) … agile mover to evade rushers and one of the better third-down scramblers in recent years (accounted for a combined 42 first-down carries on thirdand fourth downsthe past two seasons) … led North Carolina in rushing in 2022 and understands when to slide and when to use his toughness to finish runs (had 56 rushes of 10-plus yards the last two seasons, second most in the FBS behind only LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels) … high school and college coaches all speak highly of his leadership role in the locker room and on the field (NFL scout: “Consideri ng his family’s success, I expected a cocky kid, but he’s real grounded and humble. The ‘golly-gee’ stuff isn’t an act. He’ll need time before he’s ready to lead an NFL room, but he’ll get there.”) … benefits from the older brother theory — he has three highly accomplished and athletic older brothers who pushed him to be the most competitive in the family … started 26 consecutive games the past two seasons and finished with a 17-9 record as a starter … set the school records for completions (342) and passing yards (4,321) in a single season and leaves Chapel Hill ranked top five in program history in total offense (9,227), passing touchdowns (63), 300 -yard passing games (12) and passing yards (8,018). WEAKNESSES: Plays with reckless tendencies and still learning the throws he should and shouldn’t make … generally, his accuracy is above average, but his arm gets juiced up and he will miss some layups … needs to reel back some bad habits in the pocket like excessive bouncing on his feet or fading away from throws … needs to take better care of the football and is guilty of panic decisions as he is being sacked, turning a bad play into a catastrophic play … of his 16 career interceptions, 12 came in the second half … responsible for 10 fumbles over the past two seasons … two of his most inconsistent performances in college came in the final two games he played (at Clemson and at NC State in 2023). SUMMARY: A two-year starter at North Carolina, Maye thrived in Phil Longo’s Air Raid offense in 2022 and Chip Lindsey’s more balanced attack in 2023 (head coach Mack Brown also hired Clyde Christensen, who coached Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and several other NFL quarterbacks, as an offensive analyst in 2023). Despite only two years as the Tar Heels’ starter, they were the two most productive seasons by a quarterback in North Carolina history — Maye’s 5,019 yards of total offense in 2022 set the school record and his 4,057 yards of total offense in 2023 wasthe second-most (he was the only FBS quarterback to accumulate over 9,000 yards of total offense over the last two seasons). With his arm strength and pacing, Maye put the full inventory of throws on tape and operates with timing from the pocket to attack the defense’s leverage. He is a quick-reaction athlete to make plays off-schedule as a scrambler and canrip throws from different platforms. His arm can get juiced-up at times, disrupting his ball placement, and his progression reads are still a work in progress, especially when he feels pressed to make a play (39-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the first half compared to 24-to-12 in the second half). Overall, Maye needs to cut down on the reckless decisions, but he is a well-put-together passer with the on-field command, athletic instincts and arm talent to create solutions for the problems that NFL defenses present. With his physical gifts and smarts, he is cut from the same cloth as Justin Herbert and has a similar ceiling as an NFL player. GRADE: 1st Round (No. 4 overall) Daniels STRENGTHS: Explosive plays are all over his tape (accounted for 90 plays of 20-plus yards in 2023) … electric athlete with quick, controlled feet (his father was a cornerback, and Daniels moves like one) … slithery in the pocket, and his internal clock matured at an encouraging rate … quick release and can attack every inch of the field vertically and horizontally … identifies voids pre-snap and has done a better job calming his eyes when scanning … excels with his placement on downfield throws (67.0 percent completions and 22-to-0 touchdown-to-interception rate on throws of 20-plus yards in 2023) … shows the arm confidence to attack small windows … stays balanced when navigating the pocket or feeling bodies around him … dangerous runner with the acceleratio n that destroys pursuit angles … outstanding vision, especially at the second and third levels, using blocks and quick cuts to elude defenders … adopted a tir eless work ethic to understand every nuance of the offense (LSU head coach Brian Kelly: “His work in the offseason was unbelievable … we used to cut off how long players could stay in the building but had to change our protocols and give players unlimited access because Jayden basically lived here.”) … mature and accountable leader (voted team captain prior to the 2023 season) … finished his college career with a 37-18 win-loss record as a starter … put together a consensus All-American final season with an FBS-best 412.2 total yards per game (74.1 yards ahead of Drake Maye at No. 2 on the list), becoming the first player in SEC history with 3,800-plus passing yards and 1,000-plus rushing yards in a single season. WEAKNESSES: Slender bone structure with lean features and limited growth potential … processing has improved, but he will leave reads too quickly … more likely to scramble than create second-chance throws when pressured … lived outside the numbers in LSU’s offense … accuracy suffers when he adds RPMs to his throws, usually missing high … can be more precise with his placement to make things easier on his receivers … takes too many hits on keepers, draws and scrambles and needs to better protect his body to stay durable in the NFL … benefited from elite wide receiver talent at LSU … will turn 24 as a rookie. SUMMARY: A two-year starter at LSU, Daniels was a dual-threat quarterback in former offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock’s spread, read-based offense (minimal play-action). Previously stuck in a deteriorating situation at Arizona State, he transferred to Baton Rouge, received consistent coaching and thrived with the Tigers, including a prolific and decorated 2023 season (became the first player in college football history with 12,000 -plus passing yards and 3,000-plus rushing yards in a career). As a passer, Daniels plays with poise and balanced feet, and he uncoils with a rapid release and the arm talent to layer throws to all thr ee levels, doing his best work on deep outside throws (slot fades, posts, etc.). His processing skills are ascending but still have plenty of room for improvement, especially once he is pressured (he is more likely to scramble than create second-chance throws once moved from his spot). While not overly creative as a passer or runner, his athletic instincts produce explosive runs and are part of what makes him dangerous. Overall, Daniels is a smooth point guard from the pocket when his eyes stay on schedule, and his dazzling run skills make him a problem for defenses. This isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison, but NFL scouts say he forces opponents to defend him like Lamar Jackson. GRADE: 1st Round (No. 8 overall)
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Apr 10, 2024 12:58
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Awesome. And just FYI, you can open the PDF in Acrobat and just remove the password security without any master if you'd rather not have to keep track of it.
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Apr 10, 2024 13:09
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Here's the updated top 100 from Brugler, if anyone's interested
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Apr 10, 2024 14:36
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Seventeen! WRs in the top 100.
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Apr 10, 2024 14:45
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SKULL.GIF posted:Seventeen! WRs in the top 100. I kind of want the Bucs to take a WR in the first or second round. Brian Thomas probably won't be available at 26 but that would be a great pickup.
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Apr 10, 2024 14:54
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Thinking about it more Safety should be filled with second generation players but I can’t think of any. Cornerback having multiple second generation guys in league right now while being one of the pickier body type and speed positions is wild.
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Apr 10, 2024 15:03
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For the Bears it all comes down to this vs 
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Apr 10, 2024 15:21
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Amy Pole Her posted:Kris Jenkins JR too and he's kinda nasty. I like him in the 2nd/3rd I just remember being gobsmacked by this video of that kid https://twitter.com/BruceFeldmanCFB/status/1691492259366383616
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Apr 10, 2024 15:28
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McCarthy is still the most fascinating media generation of the draft. Looking back at mocks from December and even right after the national title game where people had him anywhere from mid-teens to 2-3rd round to have a meteoric rise to top 5 or top 10 without any actual football being played since then. It's not like he played for a team with zero media coverage the whole season.  I will actually feel bad if the Vikings end up having to pay three 1sts for the right to draft him.
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Apr 10, 2024 15:30
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I would rather trade back a few picks and just take Murphy or JZ Newton, if they don't think Turner can play in this defense or Turner isn't there tbh(although if Turner isn't there that likely means either Odunze or Alt are there). Verse is old(He's the same age as Aiden Hutchinson. and has been beating up kids, and still has a lack of bend and any way to attack other than power, Never trust older dudes who just rely on bullying younger players) Latu is old, and is an amazing technician, and also you know had a major neck surgery, as a Defensive lineman and was forced to medically retire from one team, and UCLA doctors cleared him. I do not trust those dudes in the first round in the draft, might end up being a miss, but I'll pass.
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Apr 10, 2024 15:38
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Dexo posted:I would rather trade back a few picks and just take Murphy or JZ Newton, if they don't think Turner can play in this defense or Turner isn't there tbh(although if Turner isn't there that likely means either Odunze or Alt are there). Yeah, a few months ago I was thinking 'just take DT' and obviously a trade back would be killer. I feel like they're picking 7th in the 2003 NBA draft again and even the best pick there just isn't that amazing compared to the top 5 (lol at detroit though). Thank god we get Carolina's pick! Assuming the wrs are gone + no trade, just have to choose between an overhyped TE, 3 flawed edges, overdrafting two great DTs, or taking a guard i guess! trevorreznik fucked around with this message at 15:46 on Apr 10, 2024 |
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Apr 10, 2024 15:41
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Harlock posted:McCarthy is still the most fascinating media generation of the draft. Looking back at mocks from December and even right after the national title game where people had him anywhere from mid-teens to 2-3rd round to have a meteoric rise to top 5 or top 10 without any actual football being played since then. It's not like he played for a team with zero media coverage the whole season. To be clear, I would not trade up to draft JJ, but I think there is a reason for that. Harbaugh just didn't throw the Ball. It doesn't mean JJ can't throw, it just means that he didn't Which means you are going to have to watch so much more tape to put together the number of "NFL throws" teams need to see. And then you need to talk to McCarthy and work him out at the 30 visit, and do all the other things to like try and get some idea of what his actual limits are, how good is he at reading a defense, what was he asked to do within the concept of Michigan's offense etc etc. It's more projection with JJ, but if he can pass all those tests I think he is worth drafting in the first, unlikely he's worth trading like 3 firsts(there are like only a few QB's in the past decade worth that) to get him in the first, but depending on that behind the scenes stuff someone just spending one pick to draft him is defensible. Especially if he were in a Shanahan offense. KOC would love that kid and how he can attack MOF. My guess is the Vikings want Drake Maye or maybe Jayden Daniels and will offer the Patriots that haul(I think Drake Maye is worth it) if the Pats don't want to take a QB there. Otherwise they might pay the chargers less to move ahead of the Giants(for JJ) but yeah. I doubt they are moving up to 3 for JJ. trevorreznik posted:Yeah, a few months ago I was thinking 'just take DT' and obviously a trade back would be killer. I feel like they're picking 7th in the 2003 NBA draft again and even the best pick there just isn't that amazing compared to the top 5 (lol at detroit though). Thank god we get Carolina's pick! Bowers not overhyped lol. He is the real loving deal. He's just a very specific player, where you have to have a creative OC willing to put him in situations to be a matchup nightmare. He is a super charged Kyle Juszczyk, who's more of a TE than just a FB. If you are just gonna play him as a normal TE drive in and drive out you are going to get a pretty decent pass catching tight end, and nothing more, but if you are creative and can move him around to gently caress with defenses you are going to get a loving monster. Dexo fucked around with this message at 15:55 on Apr 10, 2024 |
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Apr 10, 2024 15:46
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Harbaugh was fine throwing a ton when he had Andrew Luck. I know there aren't many guys you'd trust to air it out like Luck, but if Harbaugh thought McCarthy had the goods Michigan's offense would've looked different last season.
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Apr 10, 2024 15:56
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Harlock posted:McCarthy is still the most fascinating media generation of the draft. Looking back at mocks from December and even right after the national title game where people had him anywhere from mid-teens to 2-3rd round to have a meteoric rise to top 5 or top 10 without any actual football being played since then. It's not like he played for a team with zero media coverage the whole season. I think Dexo nailed it, but also the fact that multiple teams interested in a first round quarterback is just going to inflate his price. It's a tale as old as time
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Apr 10, 2024 15:59
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Cash Monet posted:Harbaugh was fine throwing a ton when he had Andrew Luck. I know there aren't many guys you'd trust to air it out like Luck, but if Harbaugh thought McCarthy had the goods Michigan's offense would've looked different last season. *is remembering when Toby Gerhart won almost won the Heisman with Andrew Luck on the team* Also compared to other QB's of his Stature, Andrew Luck threw far less than most. But yeah when he had one of the best QB prospects of all time he threw the ball more lol. Also Michigan could just run the ball and blow teams out lol. Like they were crushing teams doing poo poo like not throwing a single pass in the second half. With JJ once again, it's going to just come down to whatever your team's projection of him is. He's young as gently caress, and generally always delivered when his team actually needed him to. Trading up for him is dumb as gently caress though. Dexo fucked around with this message at 16:08 on Apr 10, 2024 |
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Apr 10, 2024 16:01
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If you throw more than 30 times at Stanford you're a nut. Stanford!
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Apr 10, 2024 16:03
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Cash Monet posted:If you throw more than 30 times at Stanford you're a nut. He didn't throw over 30 times per game under harbs tho(28.6) 
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Apr 10, 2024 16:10
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The argument that JJM would've thrown more if he was better is a bad argument. Michigan wasn't built to air it out. They were trying to win championships with defense, a dominant run game, and situational passing.
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Apr 10, 2024 16:16
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Dexo posted:He didn't throw over 30 times per game under harbs tho(28.6) Right, but my point is that there are games he did. There were games where they threw 40 times. 40! At Stanford!
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Apr 10, 2024 16:22
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Cash Monet posted:Right, but my point is that there are games he did. There were games where they threw 40 times. 40! At Stanford! Yeah, because unlike at Michigan his defense and running game that year wasn't completely dominant, so he had to pass in some of those games to have a chance at winning.
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Apr 10, 2024 16:29
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https://twitter.com/PFFNFLPod/status/1778083322393931864 I know people don't like PFF but this is a pretty good explainer of why media/teams can move on players after the season is over.
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Apr 10, 2024 16:38
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I'm at 25k words right now for my top 100 and I still have 20 prospects left to write about
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Apr 10, 2024 17:06
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Dexo posted:Yeah, because unlike at Michigan his defense and running game that year wasn't completely dominant, so he had to pass in some of those games to have a chance at winning. Fair. I just think that Harbaugh is open to leaning into the QB during a season. Solak did a break down on Jayden Daniels. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mejUOwAEr0 I think he could have a few good years but I don't how you look him and see a long term solution at QB. We'll see.
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Apr 10, 2024 17:08
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Some crazy takes, for me, in the Beast. Bo Nix over Penix. Jonathan Brooks and Blake Corum as the top two RBs (that one is absolutely insane to me). Graham Barton over JPJ at center (I haven't bothered to watch center film but I know that's surely a hot take). Latu third best edge rusher (low), with Marshawn Kneeland from Western Michigan at fifth (no way he should be that high). Terrion Arnold over Quinyon Mitchell (maybe not a massive hot take but still, not something I agree with). Junior Colson LB1. He seems to really put a lot of weight in two things that I don't think matter all that much: team success (several Michigan guys higher than I would expect) and having received no injuries. As long as medicals clear I look at injuries more as poor luck than anything else, unless I see something in the tape that seems to suggest their play is problematic in those terms. That being said, I don't mind some hot takes of they truly believe it, even if I personally think they are wrong. Still a fun thing to browse through
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Apr 10, 2024 17:44
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Barton is a road grader and nasty inside guard with a ton of strength playing at tackle the last few years. JPJ is pretty raw. Either way you should probably watch film before you judge a ranking.
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Apr 10, 2024 17:50
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I'm not exactly a draft nerd, but Graham Barton over JPJ isn't that crazy. He can play any position on the line and he's ridiculously athletic. That versatility is really valuable for certain teams (... like the Packers) who put a premium on OL being position-agnostic if needed.
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Apr 10, 2024 17:51
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I think JPJ also can play any position along the line tbf. But honestly I don't know poo poo about how to judge and grade IOL prospects.
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Apr 10, 2024 17:59
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Doltos posted:Barton is a road grader and nasty inside guard with a ton of strength playing at tackle the last few years. JPJ is pretty raw. Either way you should probably watch film before you judge a ranking. I'm not judging whether it's right or wrong per se, just saying that it's a bit of a hot take simply based on what I've seen in the media where JPJ has tons of supporters. But you're right, and maybe I will start getting into IOL although it's not my favorite position to grade. By the way, if anyone wants the Beast and doesn't have The Athletic I could probably put it up on google drive for y'all. Could also just post some sections if anyone wants to see about a specific player or positional rankings.
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Apr 10, 2024 19:48
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Play posted:I'm not judging whether it's right or wrong per se, just saying that it's a bit of a hot take simply based on what I've seen in the media where JPJ has tons of supporters. But you're right, and maybe I will start getting into IOL although it's not my favorite position to grade. I think JPJ's showing at the Senior Bowl, specifically the big highlights that made the rounds on Twitter, is why the media suddenly got super hot on him and quite frankly that's the sort of prospect that scares me. As far as the Vikings go with trading up, they've put so much work into the QBs that I'm not super worried about them trading up for a guy. If they do then I trust that they have all the data they need to grade him that highly.
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Apr 10, 2024 20:03
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SUMMARY: A one-year starter at Virginia, Washington worked mostly out of the slot in head coach Tony Elliott’s offensive scheme (87.9 percent of his snaps came at inside receiver). His receiving production improved each of his four seasons at Northwestern, but he exploded in his one season for the Cavaliers, setting a new ACC record with 110 catches and leading the FBS with 10 games of 100-plus yards. Washington has extraordinary quickness and gets up to top speed in a hurry to immediately put cornerbacks in conflict (Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze are the only players in this draft class who had more catches of 20-plus yards in 2023). He is a playmaker at the catch point (miniscule 2.5 percent drop rate in his career), although his catch radius is average, and he needs to prove that he can handle a larger route-running menu. Overall, Washington is undersized and needs to continue refining his route steps, but his explosive movements, rugged toughness and catchpoint skills will make him a factor in the slot for an NFL offense. He also has the skill set to immediately contribute in the return game. My Malik Washington agenda continues.
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Apr 10, 2024 20:24
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what's the word on javon baker & issac guerendo? i've been told they're quite underrated.
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Apr 10, 2024 20:38
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Dexo posted:Verse is old(He's the same age as Aiden Hutchinson. and has been beating up kids, and still has a lack of bend and any way to attack other than power, Never trust older dudes who just rely on bullying younger players) I'm with you on Verse. I think he's good, but like 2nd round good. Latu was so dominant that I think you happily take the chance on him. Without the injury history he's about as blue chip as you get at DE. With the injury history, I think you still take him early to mid first because he's that good. DE1 and it's not even close for me.
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Apr 10, 2024 20:45
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Gareth Gobulcoque posted:I'm with you on Verse. I think he's good, but like 2nd round good. Latu was so dominant that I think you happily take the chance on him. Without the injury history he's about as blue chip as you get at DE. With the injury history, I think you still take him early to mid first because he's that good. DE1 and it's not even close for me. Nah man, not taking a dude with neck fusion surgery, in the top 15, or me personally not in the first round, after that sure yeah. But Just me personally if I were a GM(I'd be bad and fired probably) I stay away from dudes with neck and spine injuries. DL's take too many head hits.
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Apr 10, 2024 21:11
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I don't think Latu is exceptionally good even before the neck injuries
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Apr 10, 2024 21:27
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Gareth Gobulcoque posted:I'm with you on Verse. I think he's good, but like 2nd round good. Latu was so dominant that I think you happily take the chance on him. Without the injury history he's about as blue chip as you get at DE. With the injury history, I think you still take him early to mid first because he's that good. DE1 and it's not even close for me. imo both these guys would be second round at best most years. It's just an extremely lovely year all along the defensive line, for my money. A bad year to have big needs at edge or interior. Byron Murphy is literally the only guy I think is clear first round quality between both edge and interior. I like Dallas Turner and think he has a lot of potential, but there's a lot of projection with him. Latu is decent but the neck injury as has been said is really tough. If there's a single injury I care most about it's neck and spine, followed I suppose by foot and very persistent soft tissue injuries. abelwingnut posted:what's the word on javon baker & issac guerendo? i've been told they're quite underrated. For my part, not a big Isaac Guerendo fan. I mean the speed is intriguing, his entire combine was absolutely insane, but everything else is chock full of red flags. Tape not that impressive, usage and stats not that impressive, vision not that impressive., injured a lot. Haven't even looked at Javon Baker but I'll post Brugler's take on them both because why not. Guerendo:   Baker: 
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Apr 10, 2024 21:37
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