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fsif posted:As much as I generally agree with the sentiment that it's often foolish to project prospects more than a year in the future, it does seem like the draft community consistently nails when a lovely QB class is coming. That makes sense, but I also think there are plenty of teams that get rid of average to below average QBs earlier than they probably should. I'm thinking of Baker Mayfield, Gardner Minshew, and Russell Wilson. If you are one hundred percent sure that your guy at the top of the 1st is the best player, then pull the trigger. Otherwise take good quality prospects and take a risk on someone in the later rounds.
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Apr 16, 2024 03:18
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Anderson Koopa posted:The Patriots aren't a QB away from contention. I view QB as a luxury pick when you have an okay roster that needs a QB. That part's wild to me. It's the WR spot which is the luxury pick, as shown by the many years we've seen Brady, Mahomes now, and other great QBs drag WR scrubs to the super bowl. And on the flipside, you've got Megatron and other superstar WRs languishing on terrible teams because they didn't have the QB. [edit] yes I know both had star TEs, there's more than one way to skin the egg for offensive talent. But having a QB is essential Nosre fucked around with this message at 09:37 on Apr 16, 2024 |
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Apr 16, 2024 09:15
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Yeah, but if the pats believe that QB3 is That Guy they'll take him regardless. We're speculating about what they do when they look at qb3 and think "Ehhh, maybe"
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Apr 16, 2024 09:19
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fsif posted:As much as I generally agree with the sentiment that it's often foolish to project prospects more than a year in the future, it does seem like the draft community consistently nails when a lovely QB class is coming. Yep. They may occasionally gently caress up thinking one's gonna be good (2021), but when one's definitely gonna be bad they know
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Apr 16, 2024 12:36
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tarbrush posted:Yeah, but if the pats believe that QB3 is That Guy they'll take him regardless. We're speculating about what they do when they look at qb3 and think "Ehhh, maybe" Yeah I think this is the thing. There's a vast difference between "we really really like this QB prospect so we'll take him at 3" and "we're picking at 3 so we should take a QB prospect." Granted, it's also possible to convince yourself that you really like a QB prospect because you're picking early.
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Apr 16, 2024 13:21
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The biggest reason I want a QB is so that we don't have to have the same offseason offseason again next year and maybe the year after that 
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Apr 16, 2024 13:42
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Schrager is typically spot on with his Jets info. Had has Sauce and Wilson in 2022. He had them taking DE after missing out on Broderick Jones last year. (Wrong guy though. He had Van Ness). Notably he takes Bowers after having the Colts trade ahead of them to take Nabers. https://twitter.com/PSchrags/status/1780218751683612971
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Apr 16, 2024 14:12
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If Nabers is there at 9 and some other team jumps them for him my rage boner will be seen from outer space.
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Apr 16, 2024 14:23
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I really hate the Dolphins taking a DE in an o line and WR draft
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Apr 16, 2024 14:31
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Chris James 2 posted:Yep. They may occasionally gently caress up thinking one's gonna be good (2021), but when one's definitely gonna be bad they know The draft community knows gently caress all about who is going to be a good or bad NFL QB. Nosre posted:That part's wild to me. It's the WR spot which is the luxury pick, as shown by the many years we've seen Brady, Mahomes now, and other great QBs drag WR scrubs to the super bowl. And on the flipside, you've got Megatron and other superstar WRs languishing on terrible teams because they didn't have the QB. They shooold take a WR so Tawhm has someone to throw to when he comes bawck.
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Apr 16, 2024 14:37
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I don't want Bowers. If all the WR's are gone and you can't trade down, take a linemen. Bowers has bust written all over him.
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Apr 16, 2024 14:54
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tarbrush posted:I really hate the Dolphins taking a DE in an o line and WR draft Itd be so wonderfully on brand.
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Apr 16, 2024 14:59
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Amy Pole Her posted:Itd be so wonderfully on brand. The Dolphins should've signed Wilkins. The industry is saying a lot in the last few years about the value of elite interior DL.
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Apr 16, 2024 15:05
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Nah 27.5 a year is too much. But that’s besides the point. The guy we’re discussing is a DE, mcmagic, not a DT.
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Apr 16, 2024 15:07
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Amy Pole Her posted:Nah 27.5 a year is too much. But that’s besides the point. The guy we’re discussing is a DE, mcmagic, not a DT. There is a reason that that is where the market is for that kind of player. That was my entire point.
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Apr 16, 2024 15:08
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What does your point have to do with Miami drafting a DE
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Apr 16, 2024 15:10
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mcmagic posted:I don't want Bowers. If all the WR's are gone and you can't trade down, take a linemen. Bowers has bust written all over him. There's a reason just about every draft expert has him within the the top 5-10 talents in the draft, so unless it's just because "TE", I don't see how he screams bust. He's consistently been a dominant football player since he started in the SEC.
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Apr 16, 2024 15:14
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Diva Cupcake posted:I have other preferences, but I'll still be excited about Bowers. If he was listed at his correct position, slot WR, would he be taken in the first round? He's a big slot who isn't that fast and doesn't help at all in the run block game. Who cares what he did in college on an all star team running wide open all game?
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Apr 16, 2024 15:18
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Yeah. Of the tight ends in the league, there's Kelce and then a bunch of guys where you'd much rather have any of the ten best receivers in the league instead. And I still wouldn't take Kelce over Hill, Jefferson Chase and probably a few others.
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Apr 16, 2024 15:28
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 * Ability after the catch. Thing least likely to translate from the SEC to the NFL where every DB is faster than him. ** Kyle Pitts. Great. *** He's a "winner" because he went to Georgia lol
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Apr 16, 2024 15:32
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mcmagic posted:If he was listed at his correct position, slot WR, would he be taken in the first round? He's a big slot who isn't that fast and doesn't help at all in the run block game. Again, I prefer a WR but would be shocked if the top tier was available at 10. mcmagic posted:Who cares what he did in college on an all star team running wide open all game?
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Apr 16, 2024 15:41
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I dunno if Gesicki is an entirely fair comp, but it's close enough and he was only ever really valuable as a red zone target.
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Apr 16, 2024 15:42
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Diva Cupcake posted:If you're only counting top end speed as a primary trait for a receiver, I guess I can squint and see your point. He's a low 4.5s guy in line with other dominant TEs like Kittle. He's a good route runner with excellent hands and ridiculous YAC ability. Positional flexibility and decent enough blocking that you can use him inline or in the slot without any significant downsides to either. I think Rodgers would like him. Nabers is a physical freak. Bowers isn't. I think I would rather take Brian Thomas at 10 than Bowers. In reality the Jets have to trade up or down. They will probably end up getting screwed if they stay at 10. Even if he's as fast as Kittle is, he doesn't do all the other things that Kittle does and just looking at them he has a much smaller frame than Kittle does.
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Apr 16, 2024 15:46
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Jets should take a DT at 10. The league is showing us how valuable they are.
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Apr 16, 2024 16:02
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Diva Cupcake posted:Schrager is typically spot on with his Jets info. Had has Sauce and Wilson in 2022. He had them taking DE after missing out on Broderick Jones last year. (Wrong guy though. He had Van Ness). Nabers falling to 9 seems wild but man he would be fun on the Colts with Richardson until ARich gets hurt again I hope this scenario where the Vikings are perfectly fine starting Darnold comes to pass because lol
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Apr 16, 2024 16:10
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TheBizzness posted:Jets should take a DT at 10. The league is showing us how valuable they are. They already have an elite one, the Dolphins let their walk. Also the same is true of WRs, not TEs.
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Apr 16, 2024 16:15
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Anderson Koopa posted:I agree with you for what it is worth. I don't value the argument of "Next year's QB class is bad" because draft hype will push some people up boards and organizational dysfunction will lead to the release of QBs. I would rather have a sure fire WR who can be a safety valve for whoever is playing QB. The Patriots aren't a QB away from contention, but you can assemble a roster through FA and the most common route to getting a QB is through the draft. Any team that doesn't have a QB needs to take shots at drafting a QB until they hit. That's just the reality of the NFL now. That doesn't mean draft guys you don't like, but they need to draft a QB if there's one available at 3 that they like.
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Apr 16, 2024 16:16
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I don't necessarily think the risk is drafting a bust, it's drafting someone like Mac/Daniel Jones or Pickett who clogs up your spot for years while you try to figure out if you can elevate them from A Guy to The Guy.
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Apr 16, 2024 16:24
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mcmagic posted:Nabers is a physical freak. Bowers isn't. I think I would rather take Brian Thomas at 10 than Bowers. In reality the Jets have to trade up or down. They will probably end up getting screwed if they stay at 10. I would 100% rather Bowers than Brian Thomas at 10.
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Apr 16, 2024 16:25
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tarbrush posted:I don't necessarily think the risk is drafting a bust, it's drafting someone like Mac/Daniel Jones or Pickett who clogs up your spot for years while you try to figure out if you can elevate them from A Guy to The Guy. I think the bigger issue is more that busts are made as often as they're drafted. A QB on this roster, with no answer at LT or WR means they're going to ingrain some horrible habits as a rookie that have to be beaten out of you year two.
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Apr 16, 2024 16:30
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tarbrush posted:I don't necessarily think the risk is drafting a bust, it's drafting someone like Mac/Daniel Jones or Pickett who clogs up your spot for years while you try to figure out if you can elevate them from A Guy to The Guy. Sure, but that's just kind of the reality of being a NFL team?
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Apr 16, 2024 16:36
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:Sure, but that's just kind of the reality of being a NFL team? Yeah that's just how it is, most guys don't work out but what are you gonna do, not even try? Trevor Lawrence was billed as the god of quarterbacks made flesh on earth and he's been... OK? Does that mean it was dumb as hell to draft him? And perhaps the silver lining with a QB pick flaming out is at least you can move on. If drafting Mac Jones is a debacle, where does drafting Tua rank where you are about to pay him $50 mil a year and people STILL aren't even sure if he is The Guy
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Apr 16, 2024 16:48
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To be fair, how many quarterbacks can you be sure are the guy? Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Allen? The natural state of affairs is not being sure that you have The Guy. Not sure what my point is, but I guess it's that not having a franchise QB is the natural state of affairs that all teams are constantly trying to overcome. Until you have The Guy you are either trying to get the perfect situation for a more limited QB, which means a very short window of contention, or you're trying to find The Guy.
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Apr 16, 2024 17:12
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:To be fair, how many quarterbacks can you be sure are the guy? Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Allen? The natural state of affairs is not being sure that you have The Guy. If you want to work yourself up even further, you can have the guy and it still doesn't matter at all. The Chargers had Herbie who pretty much everyone views as one of the very best QBs in the NFL on a rookie contract. They also had prime Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler. Also multiple studs on defense. The best result in 4 years of this setup was a highly embarrassing wildcard exit. Having the Chiefs in your division is a bitch but you'd think they'd eventually accomplish something. The obvious conclusion is that nothing matters 
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Apr 16, 2024 17:30
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mcmagic posted:They already have an elite one, the Dolphins let their walk. Also the same is true of WRs, not TEs. Imagine having two elite DT, so valuable!
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Apr 16, 2024 17:40
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fsif posted:As much as I generally agree with the sentiment that it's often foolish to project prospects more than a year in the future, it does seem like the draft community consistently nails when a lovely QB class is coming. the draft community consistently fails to identify which quarterbacks are good or bad so i'm not terribly impressed when they successfully point out that all the quarterbacks are bad; it's just an admission that there isn't enough to cling onto in the name of churning content and therefore they are all Bad
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Apr 16, 2024 17:48
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Docjowles posted:If you want to work yourself up even further, you can have the guy and it still doesn't matter at all. The Chargers had Herbie who pretty much everyone views as one of the very best QBs in the NFL on a rookie contract. They also had prime Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler. Also multiple studs on defense. The best result in 4 years of this setup was a highly embarrassing wildcard exit. Having the Chiefs in your division is a bitch but you'd think they'd eventually accomplish something. this is true and your conclusion is correct but like, I'd rather be the Chargers right now than the Patriots. I'd rather be the chargers than pretty much any team without a good QB.
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Apr 16, 2024 18:51
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Declan MacManus posted:the draft community consistently fails to identify which quarterbacks are good or bad so i'm not terribly impressed when they successfully point out that all the quarterbacks are bad; it's just an admission that there isn't enough to cling onto in the name of churning content and therefore they are all Bad When it comes to quarterbacks draftnicks are basically trying to read entrails. Beyond what the QB brings to the table there's just too many unknown factors - that can't even be envisioned at the time of the draft - that determine if a QB is going to make that jump. It's like trying to predict the weather for a specific day a year from now and claiming with 100% certainty that you're right.
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Apr 16, 2024 19:05
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I think you can reasonably project who's going to have durability issues. It's not grasping to be skeptical of Jayden Daniels' and Michael Penix's long term future.
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Apr 16, 2024 19:45
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I don’t see why people are calling Bowers a slot receiver or what have you. He can play attached to the formation, and be the beneficiary of the unique elements of the position. He’s probably scheme specific as a blocker, but if the right team drafts him he’ll probably be pretty useful there. I’m generally of the opinion it’s dumb to draft a TE too high but I think it’s highly contextual. If you’re paying a top pick to get an 700~ something yard receiver it’s probably a dumb move. I’ll be mad if some of these teams draft Bowers in his range because he’s 100% going to be a disappointment. That being said I’m all for Miami trading up if Bowers gets out of the top 10. A 21 team with two good receivers and is desperate for a short YAC option? That runs wide zone, and all the stuff that makes a TE unique as a receiver? It’s a great fit.
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Apr 16, 2024 23:27
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