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On top of that, the NFL is the one sport that talent is most dependent on the talent around it. You can be an elite defensive talent at cornerback, but if you got no pass rush, you're hosed.
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Apr 16, 2024 19:47
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Gareth Gobulcoque posted:We're all bad at this though. Because it's hard. You'll never account for all the variables that determine NFL success. Even if you're really, really good at scouting you're hitting at what high 50's, low 60's percentage? That's when you get to look at everybody. When you have 8 picks with a whole bunch of additional factors that we don't need to consider when doing ranking like needs, scheme, culture fit, whatever. It's gonna be lower. Yeah yeah, I really do know all that. It's still surprising to me, somehow. The fact is that teams have access to a lot of information that the media and the general public do not, which you would think would give them a huge advantage. Knowing these prospects personally, private workouts, meetings, whiteboard sessions, etc. etc. But they're really, actually not any better than if you just compared them to a standard consensus big board. Or barely better, perhaps. Evaluating human beings, even in one very specific area, is very complicated it turns out! Who would've thought. And agreed, the whole conclusion of that paper is trade down as often as you can, especially if it's a small trade down but accumulates an extra pick. And even more especially if you can get future picks, which are consistently undervalued. Volume will result in quality eventually, through both skill and luck. Or maybe it won't, because it's so random that a string of bad luck could ruin every single pick you got for trading down.
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Apr 16, 2024 20:00
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Play posted:Yeah yeah, I really do know all that. It's still surprising to me, somehow. The fact is that teams have access to a lot of information that the media and the general public do not, which you would think would give them a huge advantage. Knowing these prospects personally, private workouts, meetings, whiteboard sessions, etc. etc. But they're really, actually not any better than if you just compared them to a standard consensus big board. Or barely better, perhaps. In conclusion: nothing matters get your guy
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Apr 16, 2024 20:08
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Gareth Gobulcoque posted:We're all bad at this though. Because it's hard. You'll never account for all the variables that determine NFL success. Even if you're really, really good at scouting you're hitting at what high 50's, low 60's percentage? That's when you get to look at everybody. When you have 8 picks with a whole bunch of additional factors that we don't need to consider when doing ranking like needs, scheme, culture fit, whatever. It's gonna be lower. Plus sometimes you make good picks for players with real talent, but they don't work out for other reasons. They blow out a knee or something. The more picks the better.
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Apr 16, 2024 20:29
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Play posted:Yeah yeah, I really do know all that. It's still surprising to me, somehow. The fact is that teams have access to a lot of information that the media and the general public do not, which you would think would give them a huge advantage. Knowing these prospects personally, private workouts, meetings, whiteboard sessions, etc. etc. But they're really, actually not any better than if you just compared them to a standard consensus big board. Or barely better, perhaps. Be the Sam Presti of the NFL.
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Apr 16, 2024 20:30
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predicto posted:Be the Sam Presti of the NFL. Is that the 'trust the process' guy?
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Apr 16, 2024 20:34
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Play posted:Is that the 'trust the process' guy? No. He made a ton of trades over the past few years and has his team the #1 seed in the west with the second youngest team in the NBA and still has like 20 first round picks over roughly the next 7 drafts. He's incredible and I love him.
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Apr 16, 2024 20:39
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sam hinkie is the process guy. same guy tho
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Apr 16, 2024 20:53
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Sam Hinkie is one of the worst GMs in history and alienated every agent and player from ever joining the Sixers in an attempt to run his team like a madden franchise. Presti is a great GM that's a bit shoddy at drafting but wheels and deals better than anyone.
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Apr 16, 2024 22:07
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my mistake. teh guy who has been the top gm for 15 years isn't the same as the guy that got fired very quickly and was a meme
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Apr 16, 2024 22:21
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The thing about trading down is it requires another team that wants to trade up. Yeah, some teams are desperate to get a quarterback or a franchise kicker, but often times a team that wants to trade down isn't gonna find a suitable partner.
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Apr 16, 2024 23:53
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Mega64 posted:The thing about trading down is it requires another team that wants to trade up. Yeah, some teams are desperate to get a quarterback or a franchise kicker, but often times a team that wants to trade down isn't gonna find a suitable partner. So the thing about trading back is I think there are enough teams that are in the teens that need some combination of wide receiver quarterback or offensive tackle where I don't think finding a trade back partner is going to be hard especially in this draft.
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Apr 17, 2024 00:01
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I think this draft is weak as hell so I'm not sure how many teams would want to trade back, if they agree with me
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Apr 17, 2024 00:07
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Mega64 posted:The thing about trading down is it requires another team that wants to trade up. Yeah, some teams are desperate to get a quarterback or a franchise kicker, but often times a team that wants to trade down isn't gonna find a suitable partner. If the Vikings really want JJ, then either the Cardinals or the Chargers are gonna get 11, 23, and a 2025 First. The other team gets MHJ. Good spot to be in
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Apr 17, 2024 00:12
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Doltos posted:I think this draft is weak as hell so I'm not sure how many teams would want to trade back, if they agree with me Not if your team needs tackles and receivers like mine does this draft rules
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Apr 17, 2024 00:21
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NIL is going to make many drafts weak as hell. We were supposed to get TreVeyon Henderson in this draft 
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Apr 17, 2024 00:28
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kiimo posted:Not if your team needs tackles and receivers like mine does this draft rules Chiefs are set on WRs but I don't think the tackles are as good as people are making them out to be. A lot of them are raw as hell or have really bad tendencies. A bunch of them like Morgan, Suamataia, Fautanu, and Latham might have to kick inside to guard too.
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Apr 17, 2024 00:30
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Doltos posted:Chiefs are set on WRs but I don't think the tackles are as good as people are making them out to be. A lot of them are raw as hell or have really bad tendencies. A bunch of them like Morgan, Suamataia, Fautanu, and Latham might have to kick inside to guard too. Nah, the Chiefs want another WR. If I had to guess who that will be, they might trade up for AD Mitchell or settle for McConkey or Troy Franklin.
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Apr 17, 2024 00:35
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Nosre posted:Every 4-5 days either someone posts a "the Patriots would want three firsts + a 2nd + Justin Jefferson to get to 3" take in the Vikings subreddit, or someone posts a "Vikings looking to move up with 11 + 23" in the Patriots subreddit and the fanbases snipe at each other for a while Or they could just take Penix instead
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Apr 17, 2024 00:36
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A Sneaker Broker posted:Nah, the Chiefs want another WR. If I had to guess who that will be, they might trade up for AD Mitchell or settle for McConkey or Troy Franklin. I meant set as in there's a ton of them for them this draft.
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Apr 17, 2024 00:37
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It does not matter how many receivers there are I trust Veach to take the wrong one not that I'm complaining
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Apr 17, 2024 00:58
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A Sneaker Broker posted:NIL is going to make many drafts weak as hell. We were supposed to get TreVeyon Henderson in this draft After like 2-3 years post-implementation, I really doubt NIL would have any meaningful impact on a given draft's strength. Players would eventually exhaust their NCAA eligibility regardless if they decided to stay extra time, and I don't think there's more than a couple players who would decide to make less in college when they could make more in the pros.
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Apr 17, 2024 01:07
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The Extra covid year probably did more harm than NIL. This is upcoming year is the last of the Covid year players, it makes a ton of sense to get a year older and beat up on children to potentially improve your draft position. You are gonna have a bunch of 4th and 5th year players coming out next year. It should be an insanely deep class.
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Apr 17, 2024 01:30
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A Sneaker Broker posted:NIL is going to make many drafts weak as hell. We were supposed to get TreVeyon Henderson in this draft nah, the combo of Covid + NIL caused this wave of less talent coming out for a stretch but it'll even out in the next few years. NIL is really just incentivizing them to go back to the system that we had before where more kids stayed 4 full years rather than jumping early for a paycheck
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Apr 17, 2024 02:11
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All the more reason for Green Bay to trade down a bunch and stockpile the biggest haul of picks in history
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Apr 17, 2024 02:31
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Doltos posted:I think this draft is weak as hell so I'm not sure how many teams would want to trade back, if they agree with me My take is there's around a dozen elite prospects. Then a group of like 30 guys that could be fairly closely graded then another similar group of guys that are close then a massive dropoff in the later rounds. Like after the third there isn't much depth. Is that at all close to being accurate?
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Apr 17, 2024 02:35
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wandler20 posted:My take is there's around a dozen elite prospects. Then a group of like 30 guys that could be fairly closely graded then another similar group of guys that are close then a massive dropoff in the later rounds. Like after the third there isn't much depth. Is that at all close to being accurate? Yeah that's how I feel. Just a ton of guys hovering around the top 50 that would be guaranteed 4th rounders or later in most drafts.
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Apr 17, 2024 03:13
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kiimo posted:All the more reason for Green Bay to trade down a bunch and stockpile the biggest haul of picks in history This is what will most likely happen.
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Apr 17, 2024 03:13
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it is an amazing draft to have a lot of picks in the 1st & 2nd rounds if you need O-line and/or Receiver. Washington for instance could very likely get a good QB and a good T out of this draft. Cardinals, T & WR. that's why I hope a good interior o-line falls to the Bucs, god we need someone there
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Apr 17, 2024 03:22
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Relentlessboredomm posted:it is an amazing draft to have a lot of picks in the 1st & 2nd rounds if you need O-line and/or Receiver. Washington for instance could very likely get a good QB and a good T out of this draft. Cardinals, T & WR. Super stoked my team traded away their 2nd round pick!!! Go Seahawks!
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Apr 17, 2024 06:14
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Doltos posted:Sam Hinkie is one of the worst GMs in history and alienated every agent and player from ever joining the Sixers in an attempt to run his team like a madden franchise. You're just mad that this year is finally the year embiid lifts the big trophy
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Apr 17, 2024 08:05
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Asproigerosis posted:You're just mad that this year is finally the year embiid lifts the big trophy look at this process truster
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Apr 17, 2024 08:08
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Doltos posted:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jqefSpq0jcBNobXlMopUftx7C0zpg5OwGt55Kxx6lVk/edit?usp=sharing Hell yeah, thank you Daltos
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Apr 17, 2024 13:28
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I still think the titans should be going for Alt/Nabers/Fashanu in that order at 7 but if they do end up trading down I would be happy with most of the next level down of tackles in Latham or fuaga. Fautanu and guyton don’t do a lot for me. I would definitely be interested in Suamataia at 38 although I’m questioning if he’ll still be there at that pick. I’m guessing probably not. With bill callahan I think a lot of that rawness gets buffed up pretty quickly, i think he’s got a really high ceiling compared to a Patrick Paul or guyton in that same 30-40 range
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Apr 17, 2024 13:34
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Doltos posted:I think this draft is weak as hell so I'm not sure how many teams would want to trade back, if they agree with me It is why I'm skeptical the Bears will trade back despite lots of projections. Poles has been trading his picks this year for players and acquiring picks next year because he thinks it is a weak class. Why would you then turn around and try to get more picks.
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Apr 17, 2024 14:49
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Sataere posted:It is why I'm skeptical the Bears will trade back despite lots of projections. Poles has been trading his picks this year for players and acquiring picks next year because he thinks it is a weak class. Why would you then turn around and try to get more picks. Because one of the ways to gain expected value in the draft is to exploit the bias of other gms. A big bias is that other gms undervalue future picks.
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Apr 17, 2024 14:58
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Because one of the ways to gain expected value in the draft is to exploit the bias of other gms. A big bias is that other gms undervalue future picks. I've never understood devaluing future picks. Only time it comes into play is if your job is on the line and if you aren't acquiring capital early you are probably losing your job anyway.
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Apr 17, 2024 16:29
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Sataere posted:I've never understood devaluing future picks. Only time it comes into play is if your job is on the line and if you aren't acquiring capital early you are probably losing your job anyway. If the picks are not in the first two rounds, good contending teams are capable of producing additional draft compensation through comp pick systems. If players leave and have productive seasons or if Rooney Rule candidates are hired, it's feasible to replace the future third traded with a later third round pick I think if you aren't a good team that system won't work though and for anyone who isn't the 49ers/Chiefs/Eagles/Bills and regularly playing in the playoffs it isn't really sustainable.
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Apr 17, 2024 16:52
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Mystic Stylez posted:Hell yeah, thank you Daltos The full thing will come out around draft time that's a copy at the moment. Still have to reorder a ton of prospects and get like 30 more done
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Apr 17, 2024 16:58
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Forrest on Fire posted:If the picks are not in the first two rounds, good contending teams are capable of producing additional draft compensation through comp pick systems. If players leave and have productive seasons or if Rooney Rule candidates are hired, it's feasible to replace the future third traded with a later third round pick Poles has been building by trading down in the middle rounds to cover depth. Even though they have 4 picks this year, they have had a lot of picks over the last three years. It is playing the middle rounds that builds up a roster. And they did this with zero comp picks. Rosters are built through the middle rounds imo
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Apr 17, 2024 17:01
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