(Thread IKs:
weg, Toxic Mental)
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3 DONG HORSE posted:my dog has never farted so viciously as to wake itself up. it does wake ME up though... You are lucky. Mine has farted itself awake before, and also growled at its own farts
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Apr 28, 2024 19:50
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| # ? May 14, 2024 04:26 |
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Here is the poll, which is also embedded on CNN's article: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24623637-cnn-poll-april-28-2024 Page 24:  I'm not a pollster or a statistician, but the questions seem reasonable to me. 
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Apr 28, 2024 19:51
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dervival posted:Gen X got both. Gen X gon’ give it to ya. (Lead and microplastic poisoning)
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Apr 28, 2024 19:53
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Even if you don't think the polling is broken, Trump +6 is a massive outlier. CNN knows this and chooses to run with it.
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Apr 28, 2024 19:53
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Poll my finger. Better yet, poll Trump's
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Apr 28, 2024 19:55
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Let's all stop gaslighting each other and accept the reality that Trump is somehow ahead in the polls.
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Apr 28, 2024 19:55
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kazil posted:Even if you don't think the polling is broken, Trump +6 is a massive outlier. CNN knows this and chooses to run with it. The reason for that is named David Zaslav.
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Apr 28, 2024 19:56
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E: nm
poisonpill fucked around with this message at 23:43 on Apr 28, 2024 |
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Apr 28, 2024 20:02
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beer_war posted:Only registered voters were asked who they would vote for. Ugh. You are correct. I was going by an earlier blurb in this thread. quote:The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from April 18-23 among a random national sample of 1,212 adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 967 registered voters. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. I still stand by it being garbage. There is no world where Donald Trump wins the national electorate by 9% and RFK puts up Ross Perot numbers pulling almost entirely from Biden. Probably the only people who responded to this thing were folks from the Black Lesbians for Donald Trump Facebook page (run by the one black lesbian who loves Donald Trump, populated otherwise by 800 bots and 400 people who are just trolling).
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Apr 28, 2024 20:04
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GSV gently caress Your God posted:These presidential polls do not seem reflective of Democrat turnout in primaries, special elections, and so on as well as fundraising relative to prior elections. The polls are the item out of step with the other indicators. Hell Trump just "lost" to Biden by over 100k votes in a meaningless primary in Pennsylvania.
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Apr 28, 2024 20:05
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It would be impossible for foreign governments to get registered voter data and sign up to be polled and influence public perception. Not to mention everyone benefits in a horse race narrative. And then no one under 50 answers online or telephone polls legit either way. Polling should be done in person.
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Apr 28, 2024 20:05
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ragnarokette posted:You're in the ballpark but statistics is just brain melting like that sometimes. We understand there is a methodology behind it but what pollsters seem to not understand is it's likely their methodology is flawed and has been for at least 8 years. Polls consistently do not match actual results but here you are trying to explain why that reality cannot be true.
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Apr 28, 2024 20:07
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PhazonLink posted:is the black bars suppose to be censor bars? because my lovely monitor has viewing angles where I can see the text beerinator posted:On my monitor each line basically says: (b) (6), (b) (7)(C) Denim Dude posted:They must use something that not only add black bars but also text because it's just random gibberish. It's not gibberish. B6 and b7c are the foia exemption codes. You can appeal their usage. B6 deals with PII (personal identifying information) and covers not just medical records but also name, address, etc. You, me, and anyone not in a certain organisational rank are covered by this. B7c covers PII in law enforcement records. In this case I assume since they're officers it gets slapped on. *edit* I deal with this stuff on a professional level and drat near lost my mind when the big brain geniuses released those docs without the redaction codes burnt in. citybeatnik fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Apr 28, 2024 |
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Apr 28, 2024 20:09
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My hunch is that the various polling outfits have all done various adjustments to try to account for underestimating Trump in the previous two elections, and the results are all over the place.
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Apr 28, 2024 20:09
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kazil posted:Even if you don't think the polling is broken, Trump +6 is a massive outlier. CNN knows this and chooses to run with it. whatever the opposite of herding is
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Apr 28, 2024 20:10
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ragnarokette posted:I hope I've explained this well I really didn't want to effortpost about statistics and polling for a project that I've mostly tried to delete from my memory. No this is good, I have an embarrassing memory from this very forum like 15 years ago where I chortled at the idea of a 1K sample being representative of 300M people, then I took a stats class and realized I'm the one who's wrong and dumb, which is a consistent life journey. I'm just proffering a heuristic at this point but I refuse to believe any poll that Trump is leading. He's a very public figure and he won't gain any votes. At most, he might gain a few chuds turning 18 and it'll be washed out by other voters dying. But the idea of him growing his voter base is laughably inconceivable to me. I also think RFK is going to be a massive spoiler on the R side. But that's just my editorial on the matter and it's perfectly likely I'll be wrong as gently caress, as per usual.
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Apr 28, 2024 20:16
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Sedgr posted:It would be impossible for foreign governments to get registered voter data and sign up to be polled and influence public perception. Not to mention everyone benefits in a horse race narrative. In the case of the poll be discussed right now, the had to answer something and affirmatively consent to joining a panel in the first place and then participate whenever the surveyors call. I'm betting you could make a pretty compelling argument that it selects for people who mainline politics news though. SidneyIsTheKiller posted:My hunch is that the various polling outfits have all done various adjustments to try to account for underestimating Trump in the previous two elections, and the results are all over the place. I think this is a big part of it. You only get to re-calibrate your projection factors as a pollster every two or four years. It's also really easy to just constantly be reacting to last year's results while ignoring actual underlying geographic trends. I honestly don't envy them, it's a very tough nut to crack.
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Apr 28, 2024 20:16
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SidneyIsTheKiller posted:My hunch is that the various polling outfits have all done various adjustments to try to account for underestimating Trump in the previous two elections, and the results are all over the place. It doesn't seem like anyone has figured out how to reliably poll gen z. From that cnn poll article posted:In the Biden vs. Trump matchup, the poll finds Biden faring worse than in previous CNN polls among the youngest voters, trailing Trump by a 51%-to-40% margin among voters younger than 35. Other recent polling has shown a wide range of results for younger voters in testing a matchup between Trump and Biden, ranging from an 18-point Trump advantage among those younger than 30 in the Fox News poll in mid-March up to a 21-point Biden advantage among those younger than 30 in the Pew Research survey earlier this month.
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Apr 28, 2024 20:17
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Seth Pecksniff posted:Also it's Sunday go outside and play or something I am out with my gf for 8 year anniversary. It’s nice.
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Apr 28, 2024 20:18
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Who changes Trump's diapers?
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Apr 28, 2024 20:20
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CBS also has polls out today
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Apr 28, 2024 20:20
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redshirt posted:Let's all stop gaslighting each other and accept the reality that Trump is somehow ahead in the polls. If he cruises to victory we'll all be humbled that the "do nothing" approach to campaigning is surprisingly effective.
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Apr 28, 2024 20:29
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Donald Trimp farding himself awake LIKE A DOG
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Apr 28, 2024 20:30
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SlurredSpeech609 posted:It doesn't seem like anyone has figured out how to reliably poll gen z. Biden's farting worse than trump?!
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Apr 28, 2024 20:31
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Scags McDouglas posted:If he cruises to victory we'll all be humbled that the "do nothing" approach to campaigning is surprisingly effective. My not-secret theory that dementia is actually a boon to the presidency after growing up in the MIC after Reagan will be proven, and nom epique will be uncaged
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Apr 28, 2024 20:32
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Scags McDouglas posted:If he cruises to victory we'll all be humbled that the "do nothing" approach to campaigning is surprisingly effective. Turns out being "polite" and "mature" and "adult" is all bullshit, you just need to constantly brag about your dubious lovely self and post stupid memes on twitter
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Apr 28, 2024 20:34
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lol everyone becomes an expert in statistics and survey science any time they see a poll result they don't like
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Apr 28, 2024 20:37
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Also I've alluded to it before I interned on a congressional race in 2018 when I was going back to school. The average voter is dumb as gently caress with the memory span of one of Trump's farts. A lot of normies have memory holed the worst parts of Trump's presidency and the pandemic, which I think is skewing things right now but will revert if he can ever get out of court and on the campaign trail. Up to this point I actually think all the court cases have been a boon for him, mostly because you don't have the general public being viscerally reminded of how loving vile he is. I think there's a similar thing right now with RFK where he is coasting on name recognition and a general dissatisfaction with politics but it will start to evaporate as we get closer to the general and normies start to seriously scrutinize him. To give you all another real world example, there's a local green/democrat crank who runs for basically every office he can. He has a history of frivolous lawsuits just like Your Favorite President whenever he gets blown out in a primary and generally tries to hijack events from other candidates. I actually was put on watch one time at a big event to let the Serious People know if he made an appearance. He has been doing this since like 2012 and failing hilariously so he started to get written off. In 2022 he ran for my congressional district and the only serious dem candidate for it thought he would be safe to ignore. He decided, not irrationally, to save his war chest for the general election. The problem was that Serious Candidate had next to no name recognition. Positions on the ballot here are decided by random lot. Crank guy got first place, Serious Candidate got second. Crank guy ended up narrowly winning the primary and had to be straight up disavowed by the state party because he was first on the ballot and the voters didn't know either candidate. I wouldn't call myself a professional in any of this stuff, I got one good look at actual political work and ran screaming. My background is in math and I just happened to end up in a tangentially related field through dumb luck. My personal heuristic has just been to add like 5-7 points to Biden depending on who's doing the polling. There's not really anything concrete behind it, just vibes based on over performance in the midterms and specials.
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Apr 28, 2024 20:38
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Mulaney Power Move posted:lol everyone becomes an expert in statistics and survey science any time they see a poll result they don't like It's a whole lot of frotting t b h
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Apr 28, 2024 20:39
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Scags McDouglas posted:No this is good, I have an embarrassing memory from this very forum like 15 years ago where I chortled at the idea of a 1K sample being representative of 300M people, then I took a stats class and realized I'm the one who's wrong and dumb, which is a consistent life journey. Pretty much every poll has a "would not vote" option and it's always off by an order of magnitude from reality. That alone is evidence of flawed modeling
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Apr 28, 2024 20:39
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The poll is very skewed in the direction of people who answers phone calls from numbers they don’t recognize.
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Apr 28, 2024 20:47
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Here’s a huge both  and  poll from our friends at Rasmussen
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Apr 28, 2024 20:48
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I honestly think people are just lying. Boomer Republicans are picking up the phone and answering "I'm a gay black 20 year old voting for Trump and I cheated in the last election"
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Apr 28, 2024 20:50
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Mulaney Power Move posted:lol everyone becomes an expert in statistics and survey science any time they see a poll result they don't like you don't have to be an expert to laugh at polls being weaponized to make the horse race as sensational as possible
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Apr 28, 2024 20:51
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Here’s a huge both Also since I was there I looked up this SSRS firm and their score was pretty bad lol
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Apr 28, 2024 20:52
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John Wick of Dogs posted:I honestly think people are just lying. Boomer Republicans are picking up the phone and answering "I'm a gay black 20 year old voting for Trump and I cheated in the last election" Hell at this point who's to say the pollsters aren't lying
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Apr 28, 2024 20:56
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Polls are stupid bullshit for two reasons: 1. They are a flawed, inaccurate system of prediction due to the samples being inherently niche with no way to validate the provided information annnnnnd... 2 John Wick of Dogs posted:Boomer Republicans are picking up the phone and answering "I'm a gay black 20 year old voting for Trump and I cheated in the last election" People will interpret the results however the gently caress they want. If it skews in their preferred direction it means the poll is accurate and things look great. If it skews in the opposite direction, it's dismissed outright as fraudulent with nothing more than assumptions as proof.
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Apr 28, 2024 20:59
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ragnarokette posted:lmao, yet fivethirtyeight gives them almost the same score as Gallup, Pew and Quinnipiac. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/08/rasmussen-538-polling/ 
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Apr 28, 2024 21:01
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ragnarokette posted:lmao, yet fivethirtyeight gives them almost the same score as Gallup, Pew and Quinnipiac. If I recall correctly Rasmussen gets a good score not because they are accurate, but because they're consistent/precise Like if you add +5 Dem to their scores they're closer to accurate Edit: and irrelevant now anyway lol
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Apr 28, 2024 21:02
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| # ? May 14, 2024 04:26 |
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Here’s a huge both 20% of people filling out another person's mail-in ballot? Yeah that makes sense. Most of them are probably cases of "my wife and I filled out our ballots together and I marked both of them", which is technically a crime but who gives a gently caress? And the nefarious cases are almost certainly people taking relatives' ballots and marking them for TRUMP. And 17% voting from a state where they're not a legal resident? Sure. It doesn't matter where you vote from, as long as you're sending the ballot to the state where you reside. That's, y'know, how mail-in voting works. It's all totally normal stuff if you think about it for more than two seconds, but it's Rasmussen, so of course they've twisted the data into VOTER FRAUD!!!!!!! RIGGED AND STOLLEN!!!!!!!!!
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Apr 28, 2024 21:03
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