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Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

I dont know how the 4C+ people can get through the day. Maybe theyre older and can take comfort in the knowledge that they won't have to live in the future they predict

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no lube so what
Apr 11, 2021

Nix Panicus posted:

I dont know how the 4C+ people can get through the day. Maybe theyre older and can take comfort in the knowledge that they won't have to live in the future they predict

I suspect they lean into hedonism and are 24/7 blato'd

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
I'd like to meet the 1.5C by 2100 scientists.

mags
May 30, 2008

I am a congenital optimist.

Nix Panicus posted:

I dont know how the 4C+ people can get through the day. Maybe theyre older and can take comfort in the knowledge that they won't have to live in the future they predict

they have air conditioning

Barry Foster
Dec 24, 2007

What is going wrong with that one (face is longer than it should be)

Nix Panicus posted:

I dont know how the 4C+ people can get through the day. Maybe theyre older and can take comfort in the knowledge that they won't have to live in the future they predict

I have to admit after accidentally seeing that on the guardian front page today I'm struggling to get through the day/week/month/remaining life without just drinking myself to death

mags
May 30, 2008

I am a congenital optimist.

Barry Foster posted:

I have to admit after accidentally seeing that on the guardian front page today I'm struggling to get through the day/week/month/remaining life without just drinking myself to death

go touch grass*

* the grass is on fire

starkebn
May 18, 2004

"Oooh, got a little too serious. You okay there, little buddy?"

mags posted:

they have air conditioning

I do too, I think it will be fine

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

Barry Foster posted:

I have to admit after accidentally seeing that on the guardian front page today I'm struggling to get through the day/week/month/remaining life without just drinking myself to death

making a correct prediction is one of the greatest joys in life. it's divine, like god telling you personally that you are right.

scary ghost dog
Aug 5, 2007

Nix Panicus posted:

I dont know how the 4C+ people can get through the day. Maybe theyre older and can take comfort in the knowledge that they won't have to live in the future they predict

4C by 2100 isnt particularly threatening, its 76 years away. nobody alive today is going to be alive in 76 years

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Hubbert posted:

I'd like to meet the 1.5C by 2100 scientists.

There's a quote from one at the end of that thread.

quote:

I’ll give the last word to a guarded optimist: “I am convinced that we have all the solutions needed for a 1.5C path and that we will implement them in the coming 20 years. But I fear that our actions might come too late and we cross one or several tipping points.”

It's a bit vague ("will implement needed solutions" but not saying directly we'll hit the 1.5C path). If you read it as they're convinced we'll achieve 1.5C, then the conclusion would be they suspect that even that's not good enough.

quote:

52% of respondents under 50 expecting a rise of at least 3C

lol, lmao

Communist Cop
Jun 29, 2023
There are some climate scientists who feel really strongly about that story

https://twitter.com/DoctorVive/status/1788175333364998573?t=tInE5XmDlBkbrYrc-nhbLg&s=19
https://twitter.com/ClimateHuman/status/1788216198775124208?t=4dLOCMubdTXlwc_JFFcS7A&s=19
https://twitter.com/CharlieJGardner/status/1788165446505574815?t=tjxc8Egj4vWGmfywCm5O5Q&s=19

And then there's this guy

https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/1788209024124559665?t=Kd9E5wyofh4_i8APjdLc9g&s=19

Who's tweeted 5 times in the last hour about how they're all a bunch of cynics who don't understand ~policy~

SixteenShells
Sep 30, 2021
they're not wrong that we have solutions for it all. we just will never implement them. cannot even contemplate doing so.

mags
May 30, 2008

I am a congenital optimist.

SixteenShells posted:

they're not wrong that we have solutions for it all. we just will never implement them. cannot even contemplate doing so.

simply grab a few million in startup capital and be the change you want to see in the world

SixteenShells
Sep 30, 2021
lol you don't have to be a policy expert to look at a graph of the required emissions reductions and know we'll never do that poo poo

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003


they're too optimistic, frankly. nobody predicted air and sea surface temperatures to decouple from historical means in 2024 and reach a sustained increase of over +1.5C from historical baselines, but it happened. i think that says we've got no loving idea how fast this is going to go now that it's going or how far.

e: eg, those 6% who think we will contain heating to 1.5C are already provably wrong and yet are still saying it. One out of every 20 climate scientists is so utterly blinkered that they can't look at the current actual data and go "poo poo guess I was wrong about everything." That doesn't speak well of the average either.

The Oldest Man has issued a correction as of 16:45 on May 8, 2024

Maed
Aug 23, 2006


we're already at 1.5c, this baby is getting to like 5c by 2100

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Communist Cop posted:

There are some climate scientists who feel really strongly about that story

https://twitter.com/DoctorVive/status/1788175333364998573

btw this verdict came down today. Defense had argued it's an emergency

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greta-thunberg-fined-blocking-swedish-parliament-entrance-2024-05-08/

SixteenShells
Sep 30, 2021

The Oldest Man posted:

One out of every 20 climate scientists is so utterly blinkered that they can't look at the current actual data and go "poo poo guess I was wrong about everything." That doesn't speak well of the average either.

not even scientists are immune to Type Two Errors, i guess

Communist Cop
Jun 29, 2023
Public policy is fundamentally conservative. Outside of really narrow windows of opportunity, public policy doesn't really change. Anyone in the field will tell you that without a huge shock to the system the best they have to offer is incremental change. Since there are no incremental policy changes that will keep warming below 1.5 (or even 2.5), the cynics are correct even in their 'ignorance'.

Communist Cop
Jun 29, 2023

The Oldest Man posted:

e: eg, those 6% who think we will contain heating to 1.5C are already provably wrong and yet are still saying it. One out of every 20 climate scientists is so utterly blinkered that they can't look at the current actual data and go "poo poo guess I was wrong about everything." That doesn't speak well of the average either.

Yeah I mean how do you see something like this and not get it

https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1788227910660206849?t=YkojKhIMA1lUekQIWDLH5w&s=19

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014

Nix Panicus posted:

I dont know how the 4C+ people can get through the day.

the same way the rest of us do. by posting

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003


Basically high test copium that this is all some oscillation-driven once-in-a-blue-moon thing that doesn't represent the actual climate sensitivity and that it'll all just go away on its own and Follow the Science back to +1.1C or whatever we're supposed to be at now in the fantasy world where we stay under 1.5 by the end of the century.

RandomBlue
Dec 30, 2012

hay guys!


Biscuit Hider

It's not insanity it's simple selfishness. Calling it insanity is cope.

mags
May 30, 2008

I am a congenital optimist.
doing a capitalism isn’t Normal. it’s insane.

mistermojo
Jul 3, 2004

its time to get very serious. but first watch this drive. wait. no. drill baby drill

Ted Wassanasong
Apr 8, 2020

Harold Fjord posted:

I think you people need to start being realistic.

I am reliant on internationally produced medicine to survive and cannot be allowed to simply die by going without it.

Healthcare,, like food, is not a right.

Car Hater
May 7, 2007

wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!

Nix Panicus posted:

I dont know how the 4C+ people can get through the day. Maybe theyre older and can take comfort in the knowledge that they won't have to live in the future they predict

Trying to get out of debt so I can quit work and be homeless in the mountains for a while again, John Muir style. Communing with the last of nature like a Warboy, standing on the edge of a cliff screaming "witness me"

RIP Syndrome
Feb 24, 2016

Having fun thinking about how people at all levels of society are finally close to catching up with this thread now. How it'll affect our collective thinking. All those bucket lists. From the lowliest consumer to the loftiest military think tank guy.

FlapYoJacks
Feb 12, 2009
+3C is a small number; it's not even double digits! All you doomers do is complain! :rolleyes:

Irony.or.Death
Apr 1, 2009


RIP Syndrome posted:

Having fun thinking about how people at all levels of society are finally close to catching up with this thread now. How it'll affect our collective thinking. All those bucket lists. From the lowliest consumer to the loftiest military think tank guy.

I'm sort of adjacent to public mental health and have been trying to get people to think about this before it fully settles in, with exactly as many takers as you'd expect. This thread is the only place I can find other people who think it's a fun exercise so thank you thread.

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014

with hte power of air conditioning you can reduce by 3C as well, in a matter of minutes

Actuary X
Jul 20, 2007

Not really the best actuary in the world.
We're just going to hit some tipping point and then we'll be like "Oh well it's too late now lol"

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Actuary X posted:

We're just going to hit some tipping point and then we'll be like "Oh well it's too late now lol"

fyi this was always the intention

TeenageArchipelago
Jul 23, 2013


lmao so apparently there is a myopia epidemic because everyone is spending all of their time indoors instead of touching grass

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmIsJXw3lP0

https://www.aao.org/eyenet/article/facing-the-myopia-epidemic

quote:

The myopia epidemic has become virtually impossible to ignore. In 2010, 28% of the world’s population was affected. By 2050, that number could reach 50%.1 The burden has been felt most strongly in East Asia, where rates can be as high as 90%, said Michael X. Repka, MD, at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. “In the United States, we’re nowhere near that level, but rates are higher than they were two generations ago.”

In the past, ophthalmologists have devoted more attention to other areas of their practice than to myopia prevention and progression, said Dr. Repka. “However, public awareness is growing, and we’re seeing much more interest in North America than we saw [even] five to six years ago.”

As evidence of this, Dr. Repka said, “clinical trials on myopia progression are now underway in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere.” And advocacy and education efforts are underway as well. “Given the magnitude of the condition and its impact on clinical care, education, research, advocacy, and the economy,” the Academy has identified myopia as a top strategic initiative, said Sarwat Salim, MD, at Tufts University in Boston (see “Joining Forces”).

I'm just going to say that humans are part of the biosphere and we're definitely collapsing that's why I'm posting it here

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014

I, for one, am collapsing in solidarity with the biosphere

FlapYoJacks
Feb 12, 2009

Actuary X posted:

We're just going to hit some tipping point and then we'll be like "Oh well it's too late now lol"

1.5C happened last year and this was the response.

Born in Bexhill
Apr 9, 2007

TeenageArchipelago posted:

lmao so apparently there is a myopia epidemic because everyone is spending all of their time indoors instead of touching grass

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmIsJXw3lP0

https://www.aao.org/eyenet/article/facing-the-myopia-epidemic

I'm just going to say that humans are part of the biosphere and we're definitely collapsing that's why I'm posting it here

one could say that people were blind to begin with

mdemone
Mar 14, 2001

SIX DEGREES IS COMING

The Protagonist
Jun 29, 2009

The average is 5.5? I thought it was 4. This is very unsettling.
the wacky rollercoaster ride to armageddon starts at 3+ but it sure don't end there

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Erghh
Sep 24, 2007

"Let him speak!"

RIP Syndrome posted:

Having fun thinking about how people at all levels of society are finally close to catching up with this thread now. How it'll affect our collective thinking. All those bucket lists. From the lowliest consumer to the loftiest military think tank guy.

as reality sets in and people start acting out we're gonna see some serious poo poo content lol, lmao

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