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fatherboxx)
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At this point, I don't think it'd be unreasonable to assume assassinating Zelenskyy is a vanity project for Putin. Autocratic leaders, by personality and position, are compelled to destroy individuals and organizations who have slighted them, and Zelenskyy is very visibly the face of Ukrainian resistance to Putin's insane pan-slavic visions or whatever the gently caress this war is supposed to be about anymore.
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May 8, 2024 05:31
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D-Pad posted:I feel like assassinating zelensky would just make him a martyr and galvanize the Ukrainians even more at a time when things are on shaky ground morale wise with Russian advances, failure of western support, debate over lowering conscription age etc. It seems counterproductive because it's not going to knock Ukraine out of the war. for Putin the problem with Zelensky is he was the chosen candidate in the parts of the country currently occupied or under threat from Russian troops  Ukraine obviously can't hold elections in Mariupol and Melitopol right now, so if elections were held today the winning candidate could be one chosen by western Ukraine and theoretically have less legitimacy in those regions. It wouldn't necessarily be a setback for Putin at all if something happened to Zelensky
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May 8, 2024 05:50
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nimby posted:It'd really depend on what context the assassination happens in. If it's just killing him, yeah that won't help Russia much. If it includes a concerted push along the front to capitalize on the chaos, or a coup from inside the military, that's something else. Seems like a pretty strong propaganda victory at a minimum
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May 8, 2024 05:51
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edit deleted - Taiwan defence plans belong in the Clancy chat novel thread sorry.
Comstar fucked around with this message at 11:13 on May 8, 2024 |
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May 8, 2024 11:10
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Charliegrs posted:Yeah I don't know what to make of it. How do you get that high up in rank while also being easily swayed to commit high treason? Didn't one of their top counter-intelligence officers get unmasked as a spy shortly after the start of the invasion?
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May 8, 2024 12:13
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Charliegrs posted:Yeah I don't know what to make of it. How do you get that high up in rank while also being easily swayed to commit high treason? Colonels are kind of notorious for this sort of thing. Colonel is a high enough rank to have authority and pull but too low ranked to take part in normal politics. But sometimes they decide they want a piece of politics anyway. Colonels getting ideas is how you get coups outside the current power structure.
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May 8, 2024 13:16
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The US has Michael Flynn--who almost certainly is a traitor--and still has his brother Charles Flynn commanding US Army Pacific (USARPAC). High-ranking officers are human beings like everyone else, and subject to the same things any other traitor is: extortion, greed, ideology, etc. Russia had a mercenary general
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May 8, 2024 13:54
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Don't forget that Zaluzhnyi got fired because of conflicts between himself and Zelenskyy. There are very probably officers who resent Zelenskyy and are at least open to the idea of a coup.
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May 8, 2024 15:35
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Hypothetically, killing Zelenskyy would result in turmoil/uncertainty in the short term, and open the door for a more russian friendly (or at least more pliable) replacement. This has been Russia's MO for eastern Europe since, well, the Soviet era. Zelenskyy has also been very skillful in soliciting Western aid, so removing that piece off the board could theoretically mean less materiel flowing into Ukraine. It'd also be a propaganda victory for Russia. It could make him a martyr, but that depends on how the rank and file view him. And besides, the Ukrainian army are all too familiar with the price of failure as it stands (certain death), so there's not too much more you can do to motivate them further. So, a net win/win for Russia. I'd be surprised if this was the only iron in the fire for that goal.
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May 8, 2024 16:57
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So are they going to actually use those siezed russian assets to fund ukraine's?? They keep squeeling about it but so far nothing.
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May 8, 2024 17:07
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Burns posted:So are they going to actually use those siezed russian assets to fund ukraine's?? They keep squeeling about it but so far nothing.
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May 8, 2024 17:35
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DTurtle posted:Just today the EU has agreed to use the interest from seized Russian funds as aid for Ukraine. 90% of the 4.4 billion Euro will fund weapons, 10% will be for non-lethal aid. That money should be available starting in July. This is better than nothing but just giving them the entire principal (isn't it like a few hundred billion?) would really solve a lot of Ukraine's supply issues. It seems to just be "decorum" preventing it because I don't see many scenarios where Russia gets it back and while it could be a nice nest egg given to Ukraine if the war ever ends for reparations/rebuilding they actually have to survive to get to the point they need funds for that. I really don't think it's a stretch to set precedent that if you start a war of aggression you lose your foreign reserves.
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May 8, 2024 17:45
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Yes it would be enough to cover Ukraine for several years, but apparently not protecting the money of war criminals would undermine the credibility of European banks, which is the most important thing!??? Also known as the Swiss Nazi gold doctrine
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May 8, 2024 18:12
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steinrokkan posted:Yes it would be enough to cover Ukraine for several years, but apparently not protecting the money of war criminals would undermine the credibility of European banks, which is the most important thing!??? Also known as the Swiss Nazi gold doctrine I'm not disagreeing in the slightest, but presumably it is taking so long because there are no laws that would allow such a seizure and when it would inevitably be challenged in court, the EU would lose the case. Which is kind of a good reason because it is kind of a point that lawfulness should win over Russian lawlessness. But come on, is it really that hard to make such a law?
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May 8, 2024 19:30
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Valiantman posted:I'm not disagreeing in the slightest, but presumably it is taking so long because there are no laws that would allow such a seizure and when it would inevitably be challenged in court, the EU would lose the case. Which is kind of a good reason because it is kind of a point that lawfulness should win over Russian lawlessness. I think the legal quagmire is not so much domestic law but rather how international law interacts with it, and human rights laws. I'm sure the 200 bn euros in assets aren't direct legal property of the Russian state but there's a whole bunch of middle men, state companies and strawmen involved. Since America took the first step towards seizing Russian assets (and they were almost more nervous about that than the military aid package being passed) I think a lot of European leaders want to (a) sit this out until after the election, and (b) watch the American lawsuits and how they progress before doing the same thing. It's unfortunate, I'm on the "gently caress em, fait du prince, see you in court and maybe you'll get your money back in 20 years" camp but I guess that's why I'm not a neoliberal
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May 8, 2024 19:57
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Yeah, the reverse side of "Swiss banks are holding Nazi gold and aren't giving it to Jews" is "Swiss banks are holding Jewish gold and aren't giving it to Nazis". Banks prefer not to have exceptions on deposit safety rules because their entire business depends on the deposits being safe, and politicians can change their minds abruptly. That said, when Russia is waging war in Europe, it's the type of scenario where you just have to edit the rulebook. There can't be a scenario where Russia levels Ukrainian cities and then gets their moneys back from European banks, so we should stop being idiots and give it to Ukraine already. Oh sure, this opens some incredibly hard questions like "what if Palestinians sue the state of Israel for reparations in Europe" and aw gee dunno 
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May 8, 2024 20:21
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Nenonen posted:Yeah, the reverse side of "Swiss banks are holding Nazi gold and aren't giving it to Jews" is "Swiss banks are holding Jewish gold and aren't giving it to Nazis". Banks prefer not to have exceptions on deposit safety rules because their entire business depends on the deposits being safe, and politicians can change their minds abruptly. Yes, these laws need to be very carefully planned because A) if the asset seizure laws are too relaxed someone will find a way to use them internally against political and economic opponents or to oppress people, and B) if they are not bulletproof, they will not stand at any court that follows the principles of legality and they will be dead after the first high court review. This at least as long as Russia and EU/NATO is not in direct conflict where some enemy state overruling could be applied. Unfortunately now it also opens the can of "why isn't Israel getting the same treatment as Russia", which I assume is also the favorite weapon of Moscow in their media influencing campaigns to destabilize the West.
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May 8, 2024 20:40
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Valiantman posted:I'm not disagreeing in the slightest, but presumably it is taking so long because there are no laws that would allow such a seizure and when it would inevitably be challenged in court, the EU would lose the case. Which is kind of a good reason because it is kind of a point that lawfulness should win over Russian lawlessness. Isn't one of the key pillars of rule of law the idea that laws cannot be made retroactively? Well I'm not a lawyer, just wondering. It's not clear to me either how "real" the difficulties are, as opposed to just being political theatre.
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May 8, 2024 21:11
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D-Pad posted:This is better than nothing but just giving them the entire principal (isn't it like a few hundred billion?) would really solve a lot of Ukraine's supply issues. It seems to just be "decorum" preventing it. It's the decorum that keeps other countries using European banks to keep their loot safe, which is a thing that the financiers of the continent really really want to keep going. They may turn it over eventually after a long and drawn out process designed to make it look like no precedent is being set.
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May 8, 2024 21:27
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jaete posted:Isn't one of the key pillars of rule of law the idea that laws cannot be made retroactively? Well I'm not a lawyer, just wondering. It's not clear to me either how "real" the difficulties are, as opposed to just being political theatre. You shouldn't, or in western democracies can't, make retroactive laws, but you can make laws that say that "the belongings of a party, individual, group, private entrepreneurship or country, that threats or is hostile to our country will be nationalized". How this will be implemented is another thing because of reasons I mentioned above. Having a clearly and openly hostile nation or war makes it easier because it can fall under "state of emergency"-clauses.
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May 8, 2024 21:33
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steinrokkan posted:Yes it would be enough to cover Ukraine for several years, but apparently not protecting the money of war criminals would undermine the credibility of European banks, which is the most important thing!??? Also known as the Swiss Nazi gold doctrine
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May 8, 2024 22:37
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DTurtle posted:It’s more that you want to be extremely careful before blowing up fundamental parts of the international financial and economic system.
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May 8, 2024 22:40
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SpannerX posted:I can confirm, that shipyard sucks I talked to someone from there when he filed his retirement claim. Apparently the wave of labor they got when Avondale closed made things even worse. Avondale, in New Orleans, was the worst quality large-scale shipyard in America. They were the ones largely responsible for the USS San Antonio debacle.
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May 9, 2024 00:27
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Ynglaur posted:The US has Michael Flynn--who almost certainly is a traitor--and still has his brother Charles Flynn commanding US Army Pacific (USARPAC). High-ranking officers are human beings like everyone else, and subject to the same things any other traitor is: extortion, greed, ideology, etc. Russia had a mercenary general Another human factor that might play into this is being dumb and gullible, certainly another trademark of many a senior commissioned officer.
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May 9, 2024 01:27
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DTurtle posted:It’s more that you want to be extremely careful before blowing up fundamental parts of the international financial and economic system. Like by starting a land war in Europe in the 21st century?
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May 9, 2024 09:27
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Valiantman posted:I'm not disagreeing in the slightest, but presumably it is taking so long because there are no laws that would allow such a seizure and when it would inevitably be challenged in court, the EU would lose the case. Which is kind of a good reason because it is kind of a point that lawfulness should win over Russian lawlessness. Um, to my knowledge Belgium is already sending aid to Ukraine directly taken from the capital gains of Russian oligarchs' money parked in Belgian accounts. No one protested.
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May 9, 2024 11:51
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Pope Hilarius II posted:Um, to my knowledge Belgium is already sending aid to Ukraine directly taken from the capital gains of Russian oligarchs' money parked in Belgian accounts. No one protested. Yeah but the initial question was about the assets themselves, not the interest/capital gains they generate.
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May 9, 2024 11:56
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Pope Hilarius II posted:Um, to my knowledge Belgium is already sending aid to Ukraine directly taken from the capital gains of Russian oligarchs' money parked in Belgian accounts. No one protested. The interest on that money is made in Belgium and is taxed there at 25%. Belgium has now agreed to send the tax proceedings from 2025 on as aid to Ukraine. And the clearing house has agreed to lower its management fee from 3% to 0.3%. The money should start flowing in July. There is still some discussion whether the aid from the taxes should count as in addition to or as part of the other aid provided by Belgium to Ukraine (via the EU). BabyFur Denny posted:Yeah but the initial question was about the assets themselves, not the interest/capital gains they generate. DTurtle fucked around with this message at 13:14 on May 9, 2024 |
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May 9, 2024 13:12
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Strawman posted:Like by starting a land war in Europe in the 21st century? No, war is very clearly handled in the rules and that is war is not to be used as a reason to seize or nationalize assets.
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May 9, 2024 18:29
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Some journalists are reporting on Twitter that "US officials" have told them that Blinken will be travelling to Ukraine on May 15 for a "major policy announcement".
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May 9, 2024 19:40
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Mr. Apollo posted:Some journalists are reporting on Twitter that "US officials" have told them that Blinken will be travelling to Ukraine on May 15 for a "major policy announcement". Not seeing this on Twitter with search terms "Biden" "Ukraine" "visit" "May" or permutations thereof in the last few hours. Post?
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May 9, 2024 19:45
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^ Blinken, not Biden@kenklippenstein posted:Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be traveling to Ukraine for a major policy announcement on May 15, US official tells me
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May 9, 2024 19:49
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ringu0 posted:^ Blinken, not Biden Gah, my eyes, lol. Sorry
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May 9, 2024 19:50
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I remain struck by the odd plavmce journalism is in. Some guy with a handle of "read my newsletter" somehow gets a scoop like that?
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May 10, 2024 10:36
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Ynglaur posted:I remain struck by the odd plavmce journalism is in. Some guy with a handle of "read my newsletter" somehow gets a scoop like that? read my newsletter is a long running bit of his, including rick roll style links or baiting an image leech so he can change it to tell people to read his newsletter.
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May 10, 2024 13:44
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Putin has decided, two time's the charm: The first time they tried attacking across too many fronts at once, they got punished for it. But now Russian troops have advanced across the border in Kharkiv, opening up a new front. Disclaimer: It's currently unclear how many Russian units have crossed over, and if they will get reinforcements. Ukrainian troops have just started engaging them. Several thousand people have been evacuated from villages near the crossing point. Edit: The article cites an unnamed "high-ranking" Ukrainian military source with Russia having managed to penetrate about 1km beyond the border already. (My own speculation is, because they surprised everyone with this stunt.)
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May 10, 2024 14:21
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That offensive has been expected for quite some time now. I think the first warnings started in March this year. It will have to be seen how far Russia can advance. The expectation is that Russia wants to create a buffer zone of roughly 10km and maybe try to make Kharkiv unliveable as a stretch goal.
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May 10, 2024 15:14
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Libluini posted:The article cites an unnamed "high-ranking" Ukrainian military source with Russia having managed to penetrate about 1km beyond the border already. (My own speculation is, because they surprised everyone with this stunt.) The border itself is probably not worth defending except where it follows a strong natural barrier such as a wide river or big marsh.
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May 10, 2024 15:43
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Libluini posted:Putin has decided, two time's the charm: Some Russian Z mil bloggers already claim to have captured several border villages (Strilecha, Hatyshche, and Pyl'na), although I haven't seen any real evidence so far. I am also not sure if there still were any people there, military or otherwise.
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May 10, 2024 15:44
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Paladinus posted:Some Russian Z mil bloggers already claim to have captured several border villages (Strilecha, Hatyshche, and Pyl'na), although I haven't seen any real evidence so far. I am also not sure if there still were any people there, military or otherwise. I feel like after Bakhmut, I just assume there's always going to be some people who refuse to leave their homes no matter happens.
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May 10, 2024 15:47
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