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CNN set the same rules as the Commission for qualification: 15 percent in selected polls & ballot access in enough states to ostensibly win the electoral college. What's funny is that they set the qualification polling to have begun in March, which is a longer timeline than the Commission had set for the fall debates (sometime after Labor Day). RFK won't reach an average 15 percent from now till the June debate (and likely won't have enough ballot access by then) but this metric nails the coffin.
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May 15, 2024 16:28
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Shammypants posted:Imagine being the party that generally dislikes Hispanics and regularly makes inroads with Hispanics and as a result you don’t make any policies to help Hispanics in any way and you make more inroads with Hispanics. Social/religious conservatism is a hell of a gateway, huh?
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May 15, 2024 16:38
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Willa Rogers posted:I think the more salient imagination exercise is considering how the other party can convince these voters that Biden is the better choice. According to this article, "Polls have repeatedly shown that such voters say they are attracted to Mr. Trump’s stances on the economy and the border. Many Latino voters have also pointed to Mr. Trump’s personality as a key part of his appeal." https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/02/us/politics/trumps-support-among-latinos-grows-new-poll-shows.html I'd be curious what part of Trump's stance on the economy is attractive, but I'd personally rather not have Biden emulate Trump's personality or stance on the border.
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May 15, 2024 16:44
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https://twitter.com/SecretaryPete/status/1790768966618476579 In April, DoT required airlines to promptly pay out refunds for cancelled or delayed flights (3 hrs domestic, 6hrs int'l) So what, were airlines just cancelling flights for the gently caress of it.
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May 15, 2024 16:46
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The DOT changed the economics of canceling by greatly increasing the fiscal loss associated with it. So I guess the threshold for canceling a flight used to be much lower, yeah I'm still amazed that overbooking is legal. They can sell seats that do not actually exist and then tell the crowd gathered in the terminal "whoops, we can't fit all of you on the plane. someone volunteer to delay their plans by hours or days or we'll do it for you"
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May 15, 2024 16:55
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I guess my question would be, why do airlines cancel flights? I'd've figured it was for either weather or mechanical problems, which don't seem like things that care about the bottom line.
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May 15, 2024 16:58
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/SecretaryPete/status/1790768966618476579 What does the DoT change have to do with cancelation rates over early 2023 and 2024?
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May 15, 2024 17:00
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DeadlyMuffin posted:According to this article, "Polls have repeatedly shown that such voters say they are attracted to Mr. Trump’s stances on the economy and the border. Many Latino voters have also pointed to Mr. Trump’s personality as a key part of his appeal." I don't think Biden needs to emulate Trump's personality, and Biden's recent moves to restrict the border don't seem to have moved the needle among Hispanic voters, but there may be other opportunities to reach NV voters, like the high no. of voters who are unionized, and I'm sure the campaign is doing that (but it's clearly not enough). It's not a mystery why voters--Hispanic or otherwise, Nevada or nationally--consider Trump to be better than Biden for voters economically, given pandemic relief under Trump that termed out under Biden as well as the massive increases in the cost of living over the last three years. The economy is Biden's hairball, and touting Bidenomics isn't doing the Democrats any favors in that regard, as Democratic strategists like Carville & Axelrod have pointed out.
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May 15, 2024 17:00
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zoux posted:I guess my question would be, why do airlines cancel flights? I'd've figured it was for either weather or mechanical problems, which don't seem like things that care about the bottom line. A huge cause is their internal systems are poo poo, leading to delays which leads to staff being unavailable for other flights at their destination which leads to cascading problems when you don't have adequate staffing and oh hey.
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May 15, 2024 17:02
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DeadlyMuffin posted:According to this article, "Polls have repeatedly shown that such voters say they are attracted to Mr. Trump’s stances on the economy and the border. Many Latino voters have also pointed to Mr. Trump’s personality as a key part of his appeal." Tariffs appeal to small business owners of any background. The whole rhetoric on lower taxes does too. I also encounter a lot of "My family came to this country the right way as opposed to those low class migrants," responses when I ask conservative Hispanic people about his border stance. Latin voters are not a monolith. If the GOP didn't have some real horrid goons in their ranks saying the quiet part out loud, I could easily see the Latino community even more open to the GOP.
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May 15, 2024 17:02
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zoux posted:I guess my question would be, why do airlines cancel flights? I'd've figured it was for either weather or mechanical problems, which don't seem like things that care about the bottom line. Lot of reasons, those are two of the most common but another one is that we have a severely constrained and aging population of commercial pilots as well as laws and regulations on the time pilots are legally allowed to pilot. Airlines built up schedules with little to no wiggle room so if there are delays it can cause a whole chain of flights to get cancelled if it bumps a pilot's hours into 'legally unable to fly' territory.
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May 15, 2024 17:03
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DeadlyMuffin posted:According to this article, "Polls have repeatedly shown that such voters say they are attracted to Mr. Trump’s stances on the economy and the border. Many Latino voters have also pointed to Mr. Trump’s personality as a key part of his appeal." Do you remember in the whole Obama presidency when Republicans pushed "Hey, remember how when Bush was in office gas was cheap and the economy was strong, and it all went out the window when we elected this guy?" It's exactly that all over again. Drive the economy into the ditch and pretend the guy pulling it out was behind the wheel when it happened.
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May 15, 2024 17:08
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Wow, Biden *is* rejecting the debate commission (even as the CNN debate has the same participant qualifications as the commission). I also didn't realize that he's only willing to do two debates instead of three. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1790738966980804928
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May 15, 2024 17:14
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 we are a very stupid country like, after all the special elections the Dems have swept the last couple years, I refuse to believe 2024 brings back vote splitting or Biden depressing poo poo that much Nissin Cup Nudist fucked around with this message at 17:19 on May 15, 2024 |
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May 15, 2024 17:14
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zoux posted:I guess my question would be, why do airlines cancel flights? I'd've figured it was for either weather or mechanical problems, which don't seem like things that care about the bottom line. Think 'just in time logistics'. There's only so many airplanes and crews to go around, and most of them are at the hubs. And every extra plane or crew you keep around just in case is money evaporating into the air. A few mechanical casualties or pilots calling in sick in the wrong place and suddenly you have to consider taking the L to fly a totally empty airliner out to one of your branch routes just to make your schedule. And maybe you need that plane for something else. Might be cheaper to just...not. and that's just the normal every day. A blizzard shuts down an airport or something and your whole schedule gets hosed. If you don't have enough slack you could go into complete system paralysis, like Southwest did in 2022. the experience of flight cancellation sucks more too. as airlines got better at only flying full planes, its a lot harder to rebook stranded passengers on other flights of your own or your competitor.
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May 15, 2024 17:24
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I would like to just stop Presidential debates from being a thing ever again Like if it wasn’t obvious before, it was irrelevant by 2016
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May 15, 2024 17:29
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:
Obviously this is driven by people who don't understand the structure of American government and think the President controls SCOTUS decisions made during his term. But theoretically, he could've prevented the Roe repeal by packing SCOTUS in early 2021 until it had a pro-choice majority, right?
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May 15, 2024 17:35
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Civilized Fishbot posted:Obviously this is driven by people who don't understand the structure of American government and think the President controls SCOTUS decisions made during his term. Not unilaterally. There is no situation where RvW getting overturned is foremost personally his fault.
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May 15, 2024 17:41
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I also wouldn't want to stand in Trump's legendary stench long enough to debate him 3 times.
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May 15, 2024 17:41
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Civilized Fishbot posted:Obviously this is driven by people who don't understand the structure of American government and think the President controls SCOTUS decisions made during his term. He couldn't. He could've signed a law passed by Congress that did that. Do you think that's something that could've happened in early 2021. I agree that it's people who say "It happened under his watch!" out of stupidity or ratfuckery
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May 15, 2024 17:41
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FlamingLiberal posted:I would like to just stop Presidential debates from being a thing ever again But how will the Ken Bones of the world make their incredibly informed decision?
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May 15, 2024 17:44
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Civilized Fishbot posted:Obviously this is driven by people who don't understand the structure of American government and think the President controls SCOTUS decisions made during his term. Most of the steps in packing the court are in Congress’s domain. The president can’t just unilaterally appoint justices when there are no empty seats. RvW was imperiled when Trump got his first two picks and doubly dead when he got an unplanned third. Biden could never have saved it
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May 15, 2024 17:49
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FlamingLiberal posted:I would like to just stop Presidential debates from being a thing ever again I'm glad for them and I'm looking forward to the non-audience one in June. I like the idea of not having an audience and I'm looking forward to that dynamic, too. I really would like the League of Women Voters old-style debate questioning, though, rather than cable-news style. Watch a few of the old-timey presidential debates and you'll see what I mean.
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May 15, 2024 17:50
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haveblue posted:The DOT changed the economics of canceling by greatly increasing the fiscal loss associated with it. So I guess the threshold for canceling a flight used to be much lower, yeah Other industries are engaged in overbooking, but they don't face the same stressors that airlines do when everyone actually shows up. Hotels are bad about it - but the vast majority of the time, there are additional hotels in the area, and your original hotel will both arrange for the room and possibly transportation, resources allowing. They don't have the mechanical and weather risks that airlines do, and they don't have the staff time limitations that pilots do. Airlines have only themselves to blame for becoming too efficient, but operating as if they still had excess capacity (they don't).
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May 15, 2024 17:51
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haveblue posted:The DOT changed the economics of canceling by greatly increasing the fiscal loss associated with it. So I guess the threshold for canceling a flight used to be much lower, yeah Your choice is between overbooking or no refunds on canceling a trip A certain percentage of people are going to miss a flight. Usually this percentage is pretty predictable, so you overbook by a little less than that amount and all is good. Statistically though sometimes it doesn't work, and not enough people cancel. In that case, the airlines are required to reimburse you and provide alternate transportation. However, a lot of them get around their full legal liability by offering smaller amounts at the terminal, because most people don't know their rights and there's enough of a population of rubes to take less than they're entitled to https://www.transportation.gov/individuals/aviation-consumer-protection/bumping-oversales
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May 15, 2024 17:53
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Willa Rogers posted:Wow, Biden *is* rejecting the debate commission (even as the CNN debate has the same participant qualifications as the commission). I also didn't realize that he's only willing to do two debates instead of three. Biden isn't just, over even mainly, rejecting the commission due to the participation qualifications but for a whole slew of reasons, some of which are echoed by the Trump campaign. https://apnews.com/article/2024-election-presidential-debates-biden-trump-6b1d1dbb2ed61c7637041b23662d7da8 quote:Biden’s campaign has long held a grudge against the nonpartisan commission for failing to evenly apply its rules during the 2020 Biden-Trump matchups — most notably when it didn’t enforce its COVID-19 testing rules on Trump and his entourage. His main issues seem to be: 1) Timing 2) Rules enforcement 3) Audience Honestly, they're both correct that most of not all debates should happen before early voting starts.
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May 15, 2024 17:57
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Robviously posted:Biden isn't just, over even mainly, rejecting the commission due to the participation qualifications but for a whole slew of reasons, some of which are echoed by the Trump campaign. Honestly between this and the Politico article zoux posted yesterday it seems like the Biden administration is holding grudes against a lot of organizations which doesn't seem terribly productive
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May 15, 2024 18:01
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rscott posted:Honestly between this and the Politico article zoux posted yesterday it seems like the Biden administration is holding grudes against a lot of organizations which doesn't seem terribly productive Nah it's necessary. All the grudges I've heard about so far are absolutely legitimate, especially the need for rule enforcement.
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May 15, 2024 18:07
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Robviously posted:Biden isn't just, over even mainly, rejecting the commission due to the participation qualifications but for a whole slew of reasons, some of which are echoed by the Trump campaign. Oh yeah, I totally agree for all their reasons. I'm just amazed that the DNC went along with this bc they were threatening to sanction anyone who debated outside of the commission's set schedule & the set rules as recently as four years ago. I also, frankly speaking, didn't think Biden's campaign would allow him to debate at all this year, given murmurings from insiders that he didn't want to legitimize Trump's candidacy, but I guess the polling has legitimized Trump's candidacy sufficiently now. Can't wait for the insider stories on how the Democrats came around on this. eta: It's still funny that the rules Biden did keep were the high thresholds the commission had for third-party candidates to qualify, which came about after Perot did well in the 1992 debates. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 18:12 on May 15, 2024 |
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May 15, 2024 18:08
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iirc last time around Trump was exposed to Covid the day before the debate, then intentionally arrived late so the CPB wouldn't have time to test him or his entourage. Trump's the primary person at fault for literally putting Biden's life in danger, but the CPD is culpable here too — Biden's entirely correct and justified in telling them to go screw.
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May 15, 2024 18:14
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:
It's worth looking at the actual article, which does go into more details and specifics, including talking to some of the people who answered Biden. It also provides a partisan breakdown of the answer, which is really interesting. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/15/upshot/abortion-biden-trump-blame.html quote:Nearly one in five voters in battleground states says that President Biden is responsible for ending the constitutional right to abortion, a new poll found, despite the fact that he supports abortion rights and that his opponent Donald J. Trump appointed three Supreme Court justices who made it possible to overturn Roe v. Wade. A lot of it is politically unengaged people who don't follow politics news and are mad that they haven't heard enough from Biden about the issue. That's despite the fact that he's made it a major part of his campaign platform and has talked about it quite a bit, which suggests that the problem here is really the media (or other sources of information) rather than Biden himself. At the same time, only 42% of Republicans thought that Trump was primarily responsible for ending Roe. The rest were evenly split between answering "Biden", answering "Neither", and answering "Don't Know". We joke about the GOP being the dogs who've caught the car on abortion, but Trump himself might very well have gotten away with dodging much of the blame, especially within his own party. The age breakdown is the opposite of what you'd expect here, too. In three of the four states, the younger someone was, the more likely they were to put the blame on Biden. For example, in Nevada, 26% of the 18-29 age group put the responsibility on Biden, while only 17% of the 65+ age group did. Though that might not be indicative of anything more than sampling problems in the polls. The detailed demographics info in the polls suggests that they got a weirdly conservative set of young voters, with far fewer Democrats than you'd reasonably expect. In Michigan, for example, their 18-29 sample had more self-identified Republicans than self-identified Democrats. People can crack jokes about "unskewing" all they want, but their sample sure does seem a little off.
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May 15, 2024 18:23
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Main Paineframe posted:It's worth looking at the actual article, which does go into more details and specifics, including talking to some of the people who answered Biden. It also provides a partisan breakdown of the answer, which is really interesting. A huge part of the problem here is that people generally hear what they want to hear - and Trump is pretty good about saying whatever he thinks will benefit him and his candidacy the most at any given time. In front of a MAGA crowd at a rally? Hell yeah, let's ban abortion federally! In an interview with an audience that will be bipartisan? Undecided. There's also the point in your quote about Biden not saying much of anything, period. Biden really has done a lovely job of taking credit for his accomplishments - he needs to ramp that up (or have his campaign ramp it up soon) to remind people of the good things accomplished during his administration. This isn't new, this has been ongoing throughout his tenure. Negative information is far more memorable, so people remember that Roe v. Wade was overturned a couple years ago - not necessarily that SCOTUS is largely right wing, and 3 of the justices are Trump appointees.
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May 15, 2024 18:42
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Killer robot posted:Do you remember in the whole Obama presidency when Republicans pushed "Hey, remember how when Bush was in office gas was cheap and the economy was strong, and it all went out the window when we elected this guy?" It's exactly that all over again. Drive the economy into the ditch and pretend the guy pulling it out was behind the wheel when it happened. People are also notoriously bad at remembering who was President during past events. Remember the people who insisted Obama was responsible for Katrina? Lots of people probably think Biden was President in 2020, that's when he was elected after all. It's probably exacerbated by the time dilation effects of having Trump in politics. Blue Footed Booby posted:Not unilaterally. There is no situation where RvW getting overturned is foremost personally his fault. If the Supreme Court rules for Trump that Presidents are 4 Year God Kings, it retroactively becomes Biden's fault for not going full Tyrant.
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May 15, 2024 19:46
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Shooting Blanks posted:A huge part of the problem here is that people generally hear what they want to hear - and Trump is pretty good about saying whatever he thinks will benefit him and his candidacy the most at any given time. In front of a MAGA crowd at a rally? Hell yeah, let's ban abortion federally! In an interview with an audience that will be bipartisan? Undecided. Trump takes every side of every issue, like any con man. He's only ever been consistent on one thing, which is being nice to Russia.
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May 15, 2024 20:00
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Willa Rogers posted:The last two polls had her leading Trone, though. What are the other points in favor of "polling is broken"? Polls are great for spotting trends, and the trend was clearly in Ashbrooks' favor. Broken is the wrong word, but the story of a lot of these elections lately has been is a smallish trend turning into a blowout in the vote. The last few polls had Alsobrooks pulling into a 4ish point lead, a few days later she won by 13 points as of the latest count (MOE in the last poll was 4.5% and had her at 39%; She’s currently at 54% of the vote). Obvs that could come down as the final votes are counted but that’s a hefty swing outside the margin of error in just a week. Just an interesting result based on where the polling has been, add it to the pile of similarly interesting results.
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May 15, 2024 20:19
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Shooting Blanks posted:A huge part of the problem here is that people generally hear what they want to hear - and Trump is pretty good about saying whatever he thinks will benefit him and his candidacy the most at any given time. In front of a MAGA crowd at a rally? Hell yeah, let's ban abortion federally! In an interview with an audience that will be bipartisan? Undecided.
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May 15, 2024 20:47
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Shooting Blanks posted:A huge part of the problem here is that people generally hear what they want to hear - and Trump is pretty good about saying whatever he thinks will benefit him and his candidacy the most at any given time. In front of a MAGA crowd at a rally? Hell yeah, let's ban abortion federally! In an interview with an audience that will be bipartisan? Undecided. Biden has been saying some pretty strong stuff about Roe, though. He brings it up pretty often, has made campaign ads about it, and so on. The Dems have been placing plenty of emphasis on it. I'd say the larger problem is that the Dems are unable to effectively get the message out. These politically unengaged people aren't watching his speeches or reading his tweets, and the media sources they'd normally be getting it through aren't carrying the message well for some reason. As for Trump, one thing I've noticed from all the coverage about it is that a number of people who lean Trump but want abortion to be legal seem to be just fine with Roe being overturned. As far as they're concerned, overturning Roe just restores the power of each state to decide on their own how to regulate abortion without federal meddling. They don't seem to think of it as a first step to abortion bans, and if a state does ban abortion, they seem like they'll probably blame that state's lawmakers rather than Trump.
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May 15, 2024 20:50
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FlamingLiberal posted:Hasn’t he bragged a few times about putting the judges on the court that killed Roe? Yeah, but that only matters to people who either think it's a good thing or who think it's a bad thing and oppose Trump already. Anyone who doesn't like Roe being killed (or doesn't want to admit to it) but not enough to turn on Trump is going to blame someone else like Biden. Or perhaps Congressional Dems/RBG, but they weren't in that poll.
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May 15, 2024 20:56
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Who in god's name is responding to polls? How can these pollsters even pretend that there's any kind of accuracy in what they are doing?
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May 15, 2024 21:01
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Cthulhumatic posted:Who in god's name is responding to polls? How can these pollsters even pretend that there's any kind of accuracy in what they are doing? Mostly by applying registered/likely voter screens. Young people may respond at terrible rates, but you can fiddle your poll to still work by weighing respondents appropriately. Such methods are far from perfect, but they aren't so wrong as to be laughable.
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May 15, 2024 21:04
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