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From https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/saints-at-raiders-preview-prediction-key-matchups-how-to-watch-stream-monday-night-football-in-week-2/ How to watch Date: Monday, September 21 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Location: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas, Nevada) TV: ABC / ESPN | Stream: fuboTV Follow: CBS Sports App When the Saints have the ball The only thing we know for sure about the New Orleans Saints offense is that it's going to look a lot different in Week 2 than it has over the past several years. The Saints enter this game without All-Pro wide receiver Michael Thomas, who over the past three seasons has commanded 27.7 percent, 28.2 percent, and 31.8 percent of all possible team targets. Any expectation you might have had for what this team would look like goes out the window unless and until he returns; and even then, given that he is dealing with a high-ankle sprain, things might still look different for a while. The question, then, is how the Saints re-orient. Do they just try to make either their No. 2 or No. 3 wideout -- Emmanuel Sanders or Tre'Quan Smith -- into the new Thomas and feed them 30 percent of the targets? Do they do that with tight end Jared Cook or running back Alvin Kamara? Do they try to spread the ball around fairly equally, in a departure from their usual style? My expectation would actually be that they lean a bit more on their running game. They've been moving in that direction over the past few years anyway, with Brees going from averaging 656 pass attempts per year from 2010 through 2016, to averaging just 534 (on a per-16-games basis, to account for the five games he missed last season) from 2017 through 2019. With Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray to share the workload and an offensive line that is among the best in the league, that might be the most comfortable option for them -- especially considering Sanders is only in his second game with this offense, Smith has never been more than a part-time player, and Cook has been inconsistent throughout his career. In this game, though, throwing seems more likely to be the profitable strategy. The Raiders defense wasn't very good at anything last season, but it was absolutely dreadful against the pass, ranking 31st in Football Outsiders' DVOA. Things didn't get much better in Week 1, when they allowed former Saints backup Teddy Bridgewater to throw for nearly a full yard more per attempt than his career average. Vegas' secondary is a major issue, and considering the Raiders pressured Bridgewater on only 23 percent of his drop backs last week, it looks like the pass rush might still be as well. New Orleans has a considerably better offensive line and Brees almost never allows himself to be pressured, preferring to get rid of the ball as quickly as possible after the snap. The Saints should even have some pretty good matchup advantages in the pass game, particularly with Cook and Kamara. Free-agent signee Nick Kwiatkoski is out for this game, robbing the Raiders of one of their better pass coverage linebackers. Fellow signee Cory Littleton is still among the league's best coverage players at his position, but he can't cover the tight end and running back on the same play. If Brees simply throws to the guy being covered by Not Littleton, New Orleans should be able to do some damage. When the Raiders have the ball It's difficult to imagine a week going more according to plan for the Raiders offense than it did in Week 1. Jon Gruden's team wants to run the ball with Josh Jacobs, control the clock with short, quick-strike passes, and hit the (very) occasional big play by getting a speed guy into the open field. Vegas handed Jacobs the rock 25 times in the opener, and he toted it for 93 yards and three scores. Derek Carr had the league's seventh-fastest average time to throw, per Pro Football Focus, getting the ball out in an average of 2.46 seconds. He completed 22 of 30 passes for 239 yards, with nearly half of those targets (14 of 30) being directed to Jacobs and Darren Waller. Rookie speedster Henry Ruggs broke a big play into the open field to set up one of Jacobs' three touchdowns, and the Raiders won the time of possession battle. Perfect. Things should be considerably more difficult on Monday night. The Panthers had the NFL's worst defense last season, then lost the two best players from that defense to retirement (Luke Kuechly) and free agency (James Bradberry), and came into the year with the youngest defense in football. The Saints have stars at every level, with Cameron Jordan, Marcus Davenport, Sheldon Rankins, Marshon Lattimore, Malcolm Jenkins, and Marcus Williams flying all over the field to make plays. They were one of only four teams to rank inside the top 10 in DVOA against both the run and the pass last season, and adding Jenkins to the mix in place of Vonn Bell should help them get even better this year. They did a fantastic job shutting down Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Week 1, holding them to an average of 4.8 yards per play and forcing three turnovers. If you want to try to Establish The Run against this group, good luck. Jordan is among the best run defenders in the game on the edge, and the interior linemen are experts at shooting gaps to make plays in the backfield. Former linebackers coach Mike Nolan is now the defensive coordinator in Dallas, but the work he did with this group over the past few years has turned a few of their players into significantly higher level contributors, and that should continue even now that he's gone. The Raiders have a strong offensive line and rarely allowed runs to be stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage (just 17 percent last season, per Football Outsiders, the seventh-smallest share in the league), but they also don't usually have to face the Saints. Carr prefers to target Waller and his backs on underneath throws as opposed to chunking it downfield, but New Orleans has been just as good at defending those types of passes over the past few seasons as those to the perimeter. The Raiders' best option might be trying to get the ball into the hands of Ruggs and/or Hunter Renfrow in the hopes that they break a big play, but Ruggs could get shadow treatment from Lattimore (in which case we should expect him to be held in check) and Renfrow will have to deal with Chauncey Gardner-Johnson in the slot. Neither matchup is an advantage for Vegas. In fact, it's difficult to see where they have any advantages on that side of the ball. Prediction: Saints 26, Raiders 16 Silly Burrito fucked around with this message at 01:02 on Sep 22, 2020 |
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Sep 22, 2020 00:11
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here for the drew brees is washed takes
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Sep 22, 2020 00:16
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the game is also on abc everywhere somewhere between tonight being the 50th anniversary of mnf, the new stadium in a new nfl city and a sign that abc could soon air regular season games again
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Sep 22, 2020 00:17
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I hope Brees sucks so we get a competitive game.
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Sep 22, 2020 00:19
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Vertical Lime posted:the game is also on abc everywhere Hmmm...what if we gave the players mics...and then aired football on HBO or Showtime....hmmm.....
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Sep 22, 2020 00:19
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Vertical Lime posted:the game is also on abc everywhere If ESPN starts moving games back to ABC, the NFL will start giving them worth a poo poo games again.
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Sep 22, 2020 00:20
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adaz posted:here for the drew brees is washed takes He has a habit of making magic on Monday nights.
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Sep 22, 2020 00:22
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between Jacobs, Ruggs and Waller the Raiders have some fun weapons, here's hoping it's a good game too bad the quarterback is Derek Carr
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Sep 22, 2020 00:24
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Love that punt block.
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Sep 22, 2020 00:25
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https://twitter.com/PTNetherton/status/1308181124754165761
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Sep 22, 2020 00:29
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Whoooooooooooo dat?
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Sep 22, 2020 01:03
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Uh, go Saints, I guess, but gently caress Jimmy John’s.
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Sep 22, 2020 01:04
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It's pretty loving crazy that last year I saw that stadium as a loving crater and a lot of concrete in the ground behind the Delano. But hey at least it has a roof so no one dies of heat stroke but from CTE like God intended. (also Covid)
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Sep 22, 2020 01:06
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Still true, will always be true: Latest U.N. Report Shows Raider Nation At Bottom Of Human Development Index Rankings
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Sep 22, 2020 01:06
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fartknocker posted:Uh, go Saints, I guess, but gently caress Jimmy John’s. Fair.
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Sep 22, 2020 01:08
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Dr_Strangelove posted:Still true, will always be true: lol
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Sep 22, 2020 01:09
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COMMITMENT TO EXCREMENT
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Sep 22, 2020 01:10
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This stadium is looking pretty dope man
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Sep 22, 2020 01:11
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That's cool the field is essentially on a giant rear end tray. Smart to make a ton of the stadium in black in the desert, the most reflective of all colors.
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Sep 22, 2020 01:11
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If we don't get a shot of someone lighting a blunt off that gaudy rear end statute rip it down
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Sep 22, 2020 01:12
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I am much more hopeful that the Raiders will be bad than that the Saints will be good, but I'll take either of those things happening tonight.
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Sep 22, 2020 01:12
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is vontaze burfict on the raiders?
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Sep 22, 2020 01:12
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Athanatos posted:If ESPN starts moving games back to ABC, the NFL will start giving them worth a poo poo games again. MNF next week is Ravens-Chiefs, I was shocked it wasn’t SNF
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Sep 22, 2020 01:13
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Ches Neckbeard posted:If we don't get a shot of Ice Cube lighting a blunt off that gaudy rear end statute rip it down
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Sep 22, 2020 01:13
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v. burfict is not on the raiders. Might sign him later
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Sep 22, 2020 01:14
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Ches Neckbeard posted:If we don't get a shot of someone lighting a flag on fire off that gaudy rear end statute rip it down
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Sep 22, 2020 01:14
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that's it?
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Sep 22, 2020 01:15
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Look at this giant house of evil.
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Sep 22, 2020 01:15
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fake-rear end flames
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Sep 22, 2020 01:15
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Why was the torch lighting Bourne Identity shaky cam?
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Sep 22, 2020 01:15
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kiimo posted:Look at this giant house of evil. nothing so grand a toilet, a cesspool
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Sep 22, 2020 01:16
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The stadium looks like CGI to me it’s weird
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Sep 22, 2020 01:16
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Deonte is speedy
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Sep 22, 2020 01:16
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new stadium looks dope
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Sep 22, 2020 01:17
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It will eventually look lovely brown like the Luxor down the street
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Sep 22, 2020 01:17
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Pass 1: Brees is washed
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Sep 22, 2020 01:17
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finally, the raiders play on a field without baseball dirt or a track
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Sep 22, 2020 01:17
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that audience is really hollering
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Sep 22, 2020 01:18
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Taysom Hill time comes early tonight.
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Sep 22, 2020 01:18
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Why does this Hill bullshit work. He never throws it.
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Sep 22, 2020 01:18
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