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Crazyweasel
Oct 29, 2006
lazy

Leperflesh posted:

This goes well beyond the purview of this thread, but: capital seeking better returns because bonds have been poo poo for decades and stocks seem severely overpriced (very high P/E) has been a thing for a while now, and that also seems to be a factor. There's a lot of wealthy people who have concentrated the world's money in their hands and they can't find reasonably safe good returns, perhaps because of an increasing efficiency of the market or perhaps because it's been too long since we had a good solid recession (in the strict sense of the word, a sustained contraction of the economy) or perhaps other reasons I don't know or understand.

If it is the case that capital has sought real estate as its safe harbor, that implies that real estate's real long-term returns has been beaten down to nearly nothing or will be soon, e.g., prices are either as high as they should be or way higher and we're in a speculative bubble.

But. I'm not at all sure about that last bit. I haven't done any sort of analysis on what the current return on capital is for residential real estate. So take this navel-gazing with a lot of salt.

The only thing that spooks me is what I’m seeing in the Northeast, which very well can be different from elsewhere. I think still very much fed by supply/demand between two massive generations (boomers and millennials) and while it could slow down it won’t be changed soon.

In short, Boomers are selling ahead their 30+ year old 2600+ sq.ft. family homes in desirable locations to Gen X or older millennials who are looking to upgrade from their 1st home and are already asset rich. Or the Boomer is doing a HELOC for massive cash infusion at their whim. Either way they have A LOT of cash on hand.

The Boomer wants to use their cash to “downsize” into 2100 sq.ft. starter homes or 2600 sq.ft. new build ranches (“I know it is big but it is new and a single floor!). Coincidentally the same homes or lots that the Millennial or other non-home owner wants to move into. Developers are only motivated to build the ranches because they can get cash contracts for big homes.

Therefore you have two massive generations competing for the same houses, one with a lot of cash and the other desperate to just get something and willing to take out massive loans. Simple supply/demand dynamics that didn’t exist a decade ago when most millennials were too young, Boomers weren’t ready to retire, and Gen X wasn’t big enough to gently caress dynamics up too much.

In the town I live in, the big development has been done in 5 phases, with the first being started in ‘08 and the last one finishing up now. Phase 1 was in 2008 was begrudgingly changed to 1500 sq.ft. starter homes for under $200k because no one could afford McMansions after the market dropped. Phase 3 (2016) is where you see more conventional colonials and some ranches, now at 2000 sq.ft. and went for ~$320k. This past couple of years Phase 4 and 5 have been dubbed “retirement alley”, is nothing but massive ranches, no ground being broken without a pre-existing contract, and average price of $675k. No whiff of investors in sight, all “average people” looking to move into the next phase of their life.

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Sandwich Anarchist
Sep 12, 2008
Cool how boomers just continue to screw everyone under them forever at every stage of their lives

zzyzx
Mar 2, 2004

Tom Tucker posted:

We got our house!

Condolences! :cheers:

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


I know I said I wouldn’t post here until I went through that Fannie Mae course, but anything I’m missing in this house?

https://www.compass.com/listing/65-mayall-road-waltham-ma-02453/1033845425472542129

Pros: good location, good square footage, acceptable commute, not-yet-hosed 2010 roof, driveway, relatively reasonable floor plan
Cons: aesthetic is absolute assholes, kitchen is ancient, wallpaper’s gotta go, only one bath on the second floor, there’s wall damage based on some hosed up looking stain, basement is a mystery, stairs look annoying to drag poo poo up on, second floor bath has a hosed up layout, overpriced IMO (maybe if it were 600k-640k).

Johnny Truant and Dudeabides also had this to say:

quote:

Almost none of the gutters have enough space between their termination and the base of the house, definitely check the basement for water damage

quote:

The spouts of the gutters are just hanging there, so once water falls out it will just pour straight down into the ground. This is okay if you don't have a basement or your house sits on a well graded land to drain.

But if the ground gets saturated, the water doesn't have any place to go so it'll start coming in if your basement isn't sealed well.

Way I see it, this is a fixer-upper for sure. Interior moreso than exterior, but both cases need it. It’s still livable, but it’d be Baby’s First Home Improvement Project. For 699k listing, that’s more than I’d rather bargain for, and it’s even worse when contractors are hard to get now.

That said, it’s hard to argue with what you can’t throw money at. The location is great, the square footage is good, the commute is reasonable enough for :wrongcity:, and the driveway is well appreciated. If I can confirm that the bones (roof, frame, windows, foundation, basement) and wiring are solid, then it might be worth going to the open house.

Doesn’t mean I’d buy. I still think it’s worth tens of thousands less than it actually is. But the market here is completely hosed, so :suicide:

MrKatharsis
Nov 29, 2003

feel the bern

Pollyanna posted:

I know I said I wouldn’t post here until I went through that Fannie Mae course, but anything I’m missing in this house?

https://www.compass.com/listing/65-mayall-road-waltham-ma-02453/1033845425472542129

The "Taxes" at the top of the listing do not match the actual tax history, much lower in the listing, so be careful estimating your monthly payment.

Seems like a good location though. Close to a bus route.

BaseballPCHiker
Jan 16, 2006

Pollyanna posted:

I know I said I wouldn’t post here until I went through that Fannie Mae course, but anything I’m missing in this house?

Way I see it, this is a fixer-upper for sure. Interior moreso than exterior, but both cases need it. It’s still livable, but it’d be Baby’s First Home Improvement Project. For 699k listing, that’s more than I’d rather bargain for, and it’s even worse when contractors are hard to get now.

Hard to say from those pictures. The grading looks like it may be flat or slope towards the house in some areas so you'd want to fix that along with the gutters for sure.

Built in 1940s so it may have some old wiring, poor insulation, etc. Hard to say from those pictures though.

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


Yeah, I’d have to get inspectors on the case. Unfortunate these days that only offers that waive inspection contingencies win :( I’m considering the “we’ll accept any inspection dings that are under 5k/10k” clause, since the rest of the house is old as gently caress.

GoGoGadgetChris
Mar 18, 2010

i powder a
granite monument
in a soundless flash

showering the grass
with molten drops of
its gold inlay

sending smoking
chips of stone
skipping into the fog

Pollyanna posted:

Yeah, I’d have to get inspectors on the case. Unfortunate these days that only offers that waive inspection contingencies win :( I’m considering the “we’ll accept any inspection dings that are under 5k/10k” clause, since the rest of the house is old as gently caress.

You still want to have an inspection done, it's just that you can't tank the deal based on the inspection results. (there are some other tricks for getting your earnest money back even without an inspection contingency of course)

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


Do tell? :ssh:

TacoHavoc
Dec 31, 2007
It's taco-y and havoc-y...at the same time!

Pollyanna posted:

I know I said I wouldn’t post here until I went through that Fannie Mae course, but anything I’m missing in this house?

https://www.compass.com/listing/65-mayall-road-waltham-ma-02453/1033845425472542129

Don't discount how terrible it will be getting anything up that staircase. I lived in worcester for a time which has a lot of similar construction. Those steps were the bane of many a moving. If you have little stuff, maybe it doesn't matter!

BaseballPCHiker
Jan 16, 2006


We went through that with our realtor. Basically it comes down to something being major enough that they should have known about the issue and disclosed it but didnt. Not a fun battle to fight and go through.

Our new house is over 100 years old but previous owners took out a second mortgage and basically overhauled everything. All new windows, new roofs, new wiring, new basement sump pump and tile, new gutters, etc. Made us a bit more OK with skipping an inspection contingency. Still getting one as soon as we're in.

Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.


Pollyanna posted:

I know I said I wouldn’t post here until I went through that Fannie Mae course, but anything I’m missing in this house?

https://www.compass.com/listing/65-mayall-road-waltham-ma-02453/1033845425472542129
What's that odd little door down and to the right of the kitchen door? Basement access? Is there any internal access to the basement?

I can't tell for sure, but it looks like a long-ish hike from the parking area to the kitchen entrance, with a steps along the way. No fun in a snowstorm/ice storm.

I wonder about the smoke stains on the fireplace. Badly designed for airflow? Unswept chimney? Other?

I don't see a single place you can cram a second bathroom into. That could mean it's 3br/1 bath for keepsies, and that's going to be hard to sell in the future as well as now. Up until they put me into a retirement home, I never want to live in a single-bathroom house again.

e: TacoHavoc is absolutely right about the staircase. We discovered we couldn't get any of our 6' bookcases up our staircase, nor a queen-sized "foundation" (box spring equivalent.) I don't know how you measure that, but at least walk up the stair imagining you have a 6' object in your hands and ask yourself if it could make the turn around the corner.

Arsenic Lupin fucked around with this message at 17:43 on Apr 27, 2022

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

Pollyanna posted:

I know I said I wouldn’t post here until I went through that Fannie Mae course, but anything I’m missing in this house?

https://www.compass.com/listing/65-mayall-road-waltham-ma-02453/1033845425472542129

Pros: good location, good square footage, acceptable commute, not-yet-hosed 2010 roof, driveway, relatively reasonable floor plan
Cons: aesthetic is absolute assholes, kitchen is ancient, wallpaper’s gotta go, only one bath on the second floor, there’s wall damage based on some hosed up looking stain, basement is a mystery, stairs look annoying to drag poo poo up on, second floor bath has a hosed up layout, overpriced IMO (maybe if it were 600k-640k).

Johnny Truant and Dudeabides also had this to say:



Way I see it, this is a fixer-upper for sure. Interior moreso than exterior, but both cases need it. It’s still livable, but it’d be Baby’s First Home Improvement Project. For 699k listing, that’s more than I’d rather bargain for, and it’s even worse when contractors are hard to get now.

That said, it’s hard to argue with what you can’t throw money at. The location is great, the square footage is good, the commute is reasonable enough for :wrongcity:, and the driveway is well appreciated. If I can confirm that the bones (roof, frame, windows, foundation, basement) and wiring are solid, then it might be worth going to the open house.

Doesn’t mean I’d buy. I still think it’s worth tens of thousands less than it actually is. But the market here is completely hosed, so :suicide:

I wouldn't call that a fixer upper; it's got a few cosmetic issues but doesn't appear to have any major problems. A bunch of odd little stuff but every house is going to have little problems; water damage in the basement would be a big problem, but "the downspouts are too close to the house, maybe, possibly" is a minor thing to fix or possibly even a non-issue.


Any contingency can trigger the release of your earnest money and loving up financing is so easy that a lot of people are able to trigger that one by accident (but most of the time they don't use it, because they actually do want the house but stupidly bought a new car or something while in the midst of trying to get a mortgage). You could even just call your loan officer and tell them that you no longer want to buy the house. You shouldn't do this over minor things on an inspection report, but big problems that effect the value of the property should absolutely be sufficient justification to tank your financing. YMMV

An appraisal contingency is also kind of a lightweight inspection contingency, but only for the major things that an appraiser would find.

QuarkJets fucked around with this message at 17:51 on Apr 27, 2022

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


TacoHavoc posted:

Don't discount how terrible it will be getting anything up that staircase. I lived in worcester for a time which has a lot of similar construction. Those steps were the bane of many a moving. If you have little stuff, maybe it doesn't matter!

Yeah, that’s what I’m hoping to confirm with the walkthrough. hosed up stairs are not something I want to have to throw money at, I might even consider stairs to be part of the bones of a house.

Also, I lived in Worcester too for college - I know exactly what you’re talking about :v: and I’d rather not go back!

BaseballPCHiker posted:

We went through that with our realtor. Basically it comes down to something being major enough that they should have known about the issue and disclosed it but didnt. Not a fun battle to fight and go through.

Hmm, good to know. The description of the property as-is doesn’t disclose basically anything, so I’m willing to bet they’re hiding something only inspectors will find. I’ll talk to my realtor and see if I can use this option to protect myself from a crumbling wreck.

quote:

Our new house is over 100 years old but previous owners took out a second mortgage and basically overhauled everything. All new windows, new roofs, new wiring, new basement sump pump and tile, new gutters, etc. Made us a bit more OK with skipping an inspection contingency. Still getting one as soon as we're in.

You’re insanely loving lucky to have PO’s who cared about their house. That’s night impossible to find in the Greater Boston area without being both overpriced and a lovely flip.

I’ll check the house out, cause hey, maybe it’s livable until I can rip it to shreds. But seaside being one of the better options I’ve seen so far, it still hasn’t convinced me yet.

Still doing the course.

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


Arsenic Lupin posted:

What's that odd little door down and to the right of the kitchen door? Basement access? Is there any internal access to the basement?

…wait, poo poo, you’re right. I can’t find any access to the basement. What the hell?

No internal access is a dealbreaker, especially since the laundry is down there. Good catch :gonk:

quote:

I wonder about the smoke stains on the fireplace. Badly designed for airflow? Unswept chimney? Other?

Good question. That implies it’s been used and might still be. I’d have to investigate it.

quote:

I don't see a single place you can cram a second bathroom into. That could mean it's 3br/1 bath for keepsies, and that's going to be hard to sell in the future as well as now. Up until they put me into a retirement home, I never want to live in a single-bathroom house again.

Can’t you add, like, an addition onto the house? Like they clearly did for the living room? Then again, that’s way more than I’d like to deal with…ugh.

quote:

e: TacoHavoc is absolutely right about the staircase. We discovered we couldn't get any of our 6' bookcases up our staircase, nor a queen-sized "foundation" (box spring equivalent.) I don't know how you measure that, but at least walk up the stair imagining you have a 6' object in your hands and ask yourself if it could make the turn around the corner.

I definitely understand what you’re getting at - used to live in a place with an absolutely dire staircase to the front door. You’re right, I don’t want to deal with that ever again.

It’ll be good to get showing experience, but for that price…mm, no.

1st_Panzer_Div.
May 11, 2005
Grimey Drawer
Okay starting to think about a weird idea - buying the house we rent in. Think it's likely the owner/landlords would be on board - it's their first home and we've kept it up very nice, we have rapport, they very likely don't want it torn down.

The house itself is a firm fixer - but we've lived in it a couple years already, so it's not unlivable. The price would be a big upside, we could afford to do the work, we like the floor plan, the location is mostly good though a bit gun heavy... I dunno.

Our plan would be to list out all the work in earnest, then talk with our realtor, then approach our landlord.

Anyone have thoughts or experience doing this?

Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.


I wouldn't at all be surprised if that out-jutting part of the living room was a converted porch.

Toozler
Jan 12, 2012

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

the location is mostly good though a bit gun heavy

You have mentioned this in every post about your current home. I would GTFO

Sandwich Anarchist
Sep 12, 2008

Toozler posted:

You have mentioned this in every post about your current home. I would GTFO

Of where, the country? If they're in the US, anywhere is going to be just fucken drowning in guns.

nwin
Feb 25, 2002

make's u think

Sandwich Anarchist posted:

Of where, the country? If they're in the US, anywhere is going to be just fucken drowning in guns.

Connecticut seems pretty loving lackluster in the area I bought.

Upgrade
Jun 19, 2021



Pollyanna posted:

…wait, poo poo, you’re right. I can’t find any access to the basement. What the hell?

No internal access is a dealbreaker, especially since the laundry is down there. Good catch :gonk:

Good question. That implies it’s been used and might still be. I’d have to investigate it.

Can’t you add, like, an addition onto the house? Like they clearly did for the living room? Then again, that’s way more than I’d like to deal with…ugh.

I definitely understand what you’re getting at - used to live in a place with an absolutely dire staircase to the front door. You’re right, I don’t want to deal with that ever again.

It’ll be good to get showing experience, but for that price…mm, no.

So, reading your description before clicking on the link, I was expecting way worse. Most of the rooms are absolutely livable as you slowly fix them up (and the kitchen isn't that bad, at all - you could refinish and update those cabinets easily).

But yes what you'd do is add an addition to the back of the house, which would give you an additional bedroom/master bath on the second floor, and (what's usually done) is expand the kitchen and add a family room and a half bath on the first floor.

I don't know how big the yard is.

My biggest concern FWIW is thats a lot of rooms for 1500 sqft.

Toozler
Jan 12, 2012

Sandwich Anarchist posted:

Of where, the country? If they're in the US, anywhere is going to be just fucken drowning in guns.

Florida, for starters

1st_Panzer_Div.
May 11, 2005
Grimey Drawer

Toozler posted:

You have mentioned this in every post about your current home. I would GTFO

PDX is having an explosion in gun violence... for location cross price we can afford, we either go suburb or deal with some shootings. Our assumption is the gun rise is short term related to the national politics injection in '20 & the pandemic. City elections are very focused on it. It is also only gang shootings and you can clearly see the turf war having shifted in the past few months so we should have less shootings.

Looking more for feedback on buying a rental from your landlord being something to potentially try.

Sandwich Anarchist
Sep 12, 2008

Toozler posted:

Florida, for starters

Come on down to the thread! We all loving hate it here too!

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3032523&pagenumber=865&perpage=40

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


I’m looking to buy in Greater Boston specifically because I don’t want to be anywhere near Florida again :(

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Just an FYI, polyanna, listings don't contain the disclosures. Your agent can get them from the seller.

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


Yep yep Fannie Mae course I know.

BaseballPCHiker
Jan 16, 2006

Your realtor should have some sort of listing portal where you can see listings quicker than zillow, redfin, etc and that will include disclosures and any other relevant docs.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

IMO putting disclosures into any public listing ought to be the law. Also note that nobody ever admits they know there's lead paint and the offer contract usually prohibits testing for it (because then after you back out, the sellers would "know" about the lead paint and be forced to include that in the disclosures), but you can assume every house built before the 70s has lead paint.

The disclosures process is basically a farce, but is also a loophole a person with a lawyer can use to escape a purchase offer with their earnest money refunded precisely because sellers almost always omit every defect they actually know about.

BaseballPCHiker
Jan 16, 2006

I at least answered my honestly....

But yeah I had a few rage inducing 2 1/2 hour drives to my new town to look at a house I would've never even considered because I saw some major issue that shouldve been disclosed. My favorite being the house with a broken I-beam that had fallen off of a foundation post.

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


I wonder how much of this is because the owners didn’t have the money to fix it, the owners were oblivious and didn’t know about it, the owners weren’t lucid enough to get it fixed, or the owners just didn’t give a poo poo or care.

If there’s enough of the latter, we’re gonna be seeing a lot of collapsing houses in the future :negative:

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Pollyanna posted:

I wonder how much of this is because the owners didn’t have the money to fix it, the owners were oblivious and didn’t know about it, the owners weren’t lucid enough to get it fixed, or the owners just didn’t give a poo poo or care.

If there’s enough of the latter, we’re gonna be seeing a lot of collapsing houses in the future :negative:

There have always been and will definitely continue to be, yes. But they tend to have minor, partial collapses rather than total ones... and collapses tend to happen when the structure is placed under very unusually high moments of stress, like a storm or quake. Or 30 people on a deck party. Etc.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

Leperflesh posted:

IMO putting disclosures into any public listing ought to be the law. Also note that nobody ever admits they know there's lead paint and the offer contract usually prohibits testing for it (because then after you back out, the sellers would "know" about the lead paint and be forced to include that in the disclosures), but you can assume every house built before the 70s has lead paint.

The disclosures process is basically a farce, but is also a loophole a person with a lawyer can use to escape a purchase offer with their earnest money refunded precisely because sellers almost always omit every defect they actually know about.

The EPA provides this cute image:


The 1978 federal ban was on the manufacture and sale of lead paint, but you could still use any that you happened to have around, and some contractors stocked up when the ban was announced. So I just assume that anything built before 1980 has lead paint until testing proves otherwise.

canyoneer
Sep 13, 2005


I only have canyoneyes for you


"There is no section for ghosts, wraiths, apparitions, poltergeists or spirits and I AM NOT legally required to answer questions about the crying Woman in White who allegedly makes the walls weep blood"

1st_Panzer_Div.
May 11, 2005
Grimey Drawer

Leperflesh posted:

IMO putting disclosures into any public listing ought to be the law.

It'll result in less penalties/fees with cleaner transactions.
It will lead to less competition on houses.
It'll add more pressure to the current 'waive inspection' trends.
As you mentioned it removes some of the advantages of being wealthy with a lawyer and being able to pursue more $ from a seller who's not.

I'm all for it, and it's absolutely a better system, but the current system is there to exploit and make money, changes towards transparency and fairness are tough to pull off unless at least 1 party (lender/realtor) stands to financially benefit.

Closing Disclosures were a huge improvement in transparency and required the '08 crash to make that change.

BigPaddy
Jun 30, 2008

That night we performed the rite and opened the gate.
Halfway through, I went to fix us both a coke float.
By the time I got back, he'd gone insane.
Plus, he'd left the gate open and there was evil everywhere.


Answering a question with “I don’t need to tell you that” just means yes.

Qwijib0
Apr 10, 2007

Who needs on-field skills when you can dance like this?

Fun Shoe

IOwnCalculus posted:

You really want nuts, look at what Queen Creek is going for now, and then Coolidge and Casa Grande. Drive Til You Qualify is turning into Fly Til You Qualify.

And I'm broke-brained / tied down enough here that I'll probably be here through whatever water wars are coming.

Just buy property in the SRP canal delivery region and obtain with it inseparable water rights that are primary over any other in the valley.

BigPaddy
Jun 30, 2008

That night we performed the rite and opened the gate.
Halfway through, I went to fix us both a coke float.
By the time I got back, he'd gone insane.
Plus, he'd left the gate open and there was evil everywhere.


Just learn how to wear a still suit desert style Muab Dib.

raggedphoto
May 10, 2008

I'd like to shoot you
Slightly off topic but growing up my dad had an older motorcycle that he would pour a lead additive into with every fill up. Seems straight up crazy to me now and might have something to due with his declining mental health.

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BigPaddy
Jun 30, 2008

That night we performed the rite and opened the gate.
Halfway through, I went to fix us both a coke float.
By the time I got back, he'd gone insane.
Plus, he'd left the gate open and there was evil everywhere.


That is normal for anything that is running non hardened valve seats as it was designed for leaded fuel.

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