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evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Charlotte Hornets posted:

These tanks, Bradleys aren't going to make any difference. Ukraine has enough armored vehicles already, no need to waste effort, time and money on poo poo they don't need.

i mean i'm sure they could use more armored vehicles and would like them. all indications seem to be they have a lot of good defensive stuff but less that they have enough of the mechanized stuff they would need to try to go on the offensive and retake territory.

CommieGIR posted:

Ukraine used to be a major refitter for T-72s, they could easily start that up again.

theres, uh, something interfering with their ability to set up production lines and that has been causing some rather critical problems in their existing ones.

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Sandweed
Sep 7, 2006

All your friends are me.

Nobody in Ukraine knows how to use those vehicles, it would just lead to a lot of dead Ukrainian tankers.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Risky Bisquick posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1510929257891041285

If true, this is really, really bad

Finland your turn

https://twitter.com/edgarsrinkevics/status/1510984998823903238

As per 6 hours old tweet of our foreign affairs minister, I cannot confirm this. The minister said that we would support such measures if it’s a regional step (minimum all Baltics), with the current problem being that Lithuania is bound to provide transit to Kaliningrad. I know we have a few Lithuanians here - anything you see on your end, folks?

For now, our government seems to primarily be confirming that we’re dropping Russian gas as soon as we can.

https://twitter.com/lsmlv/status/1511010350409392136

a podcast for cats
Jun 22, 2005

Dogs reading from an artifact buried in the ruins of our civilization, "We were assholes- " and writing solemnly, "They were assholes."
Soiled Meat

Risky Bisquick posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1510929257891041285

If true, this is really, really bad

Finland your turn

Ukraine requested this, but the Latvian interior minister has said that it's impractical for now, due to steady flow of Ukrainian refugees coming in from Russia. I only searched for about a minute, but could not find any indication of the volumes.

Estonian press did have something, estimating the flow at about 200 per day, coming in from cities occupied by Russia, including Mariupol. Apparently, folks who made us of the corridors going to Russia.

https://news.err.ee/1608552703/more-than-1-500-ukrainian-refugees-arrived-in-estonia-via-russia-last-week

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Telsa Cola posted:

You are discussing the shipment and setting up of logistical networks and trains into an active warzone across the planet like the US just needs to hit a button. You have no idea what this entails or really what you are asking despite multiple people taking the time to explain the difficulties to you.

Yes. The US could probably figure something out but that's likely going to be on the scale of weeks or months.

FWIW, there's the Schienenbrücke from Germany to Ukraine that is moving thousands of tons of stuff per day.

Though yes, the current problem is that Ukraine needs heavy equipment to go on the offensive, but most of the stuff that is potentially available requires enormous logistics trains to support them that is entirely incompatible with what Ukraine already has. That's a nightmare to potentially integrate.

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

Belarus just needs to have their revolution already. The troops are all loving off to the east, what's Russia going to do?

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Charlotte Hornets posted:

These tanks, Bradleys aren't going to make any difference. Ukraine has enough armored vehicles already, no need to waste effort, time and money on poo poo they don't need.

They’ve actually been explicitly asking for tanks in the last couple of days.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

This is a funny post.

Let's turn Detroit into a Soviet tank factory

The Kharkiv tank plant has been moved before...

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Georgian battalion just uploaded a video showing them murdering a PoW on camera so we've safely entered Balkan territory here

SlowBloke
Aug 14, 2017

CommieGIR posted:

Ukraine used to be a major refitter for T-72s, they could easily start that up again.

T64 only factory was in Kharkiv . The same factory was converted to t80 afterwards.
T72 was produced in Nizhny Tagil, Russia.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

KitConstantine posted:

Interesting article from a Russian diplomatic think tank about how the Russian Government may have poisoned their own public against a negotiated diplomatic solution - linked with Rob Lee's commentary
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1511080696424636420?s=20&t=RwCLojE2En5Jngv_Bu_jfg
Article: https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics...go-obshchestva/

The closing paragraph in full:

It does look from the outside like Russia's now stuck riding a tiger of their own creation. They just don't have the capability to implement the full sweep of their political goals via military action, but the most loyal of their public may not accept less. Add the looming effects of current and potential new sanctions, and a poo poo storm is a-brewing.

The Russian Foreign/Security think tank arena is interesting because it is still a bastion of relatively free thought. As long as they stay within the right boundaries and speak in the right code the system still recognises there's value in having people grounded in reality saying "this is a problem for the regime it needs to fix, here are some options".

Paxman
Feb 7, 2010

It's so weird that Russia can invade and attempt to annex a European country, threaten military action against Sweden and Finland and threaten to launch nuclear weapons against anyone who interferes, but we in Europe are meant to make sure we don't "provoke Russia".

The EU (+UK) has something like 3.5 times the population of Russia and 12 times the economy according to my 5 minutes of research so we shouldn't really be terrified of them. Whatever armed forces they have, we could have bigger and better if we really wanted to.

Maybe being a sociopath just gives you an advantage in international relations. I mean, people actually believe Putin will destroy the world if someone pisses him off, which they probably don't believe about any other world leader even if they have nuclear weapons.

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

Paxman posted:

It's so weird that Russia can invade and attempt to annex a European country, threaten military action against Sweden and Finland and threaten to launch nuclear weapons against anyone who interferes, but we in Europe are meant to make sure we don't "provoke Russia".

The EU (+UK) has something like 3.5 times the population of Russia and 12 times the economy according to my 5 minutes of research so we shouldn't really be terrified of them. Whatever armed forces they have, we could have bigger and better if we really wanted to.

Maybe being a sociopath just gives you an advantage in international relations. I mean, people actually believe Putin will destroy the world if someone pisses him off, which they probably don't believe about any other world leader even if they have nuclear weapons.

I think it BS too and we should call Russia's nuclear bluff and just supply whatever Ukraine wants and needs. We should not let a genocide happen in Ukraine again.

Gervasius
Nov 2, 2010



Grimey Drawer

cinci zoo sniper posted:

They’ve actually been explicitly asking for tanks in the last couple of days.

Poland, Bulgaria and Croatia have 1000ish T-72 and variants, and Romania has 400 heavily modernized T-55s. Those aren't top of the line, but can work.

And I guess all of those countries would be fine with taking some cheap Leopards in return.

Now, delivering all of those without being bombed by RuAF would be challenging to say the least.

Charlotte Hornets
Dec 30, 2011

by Fritz the Horse

FishBulbia posted:

Georgian battalion just uploaded a video showing them murdering a PoW on camera so we've safely entered Balkan territory here

Yep. And Georgian Legion has bunch of gung-ho foreigners including Western ones there.

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

Paxman posted:

It's so weird that Russia can invade and attempt to annex a European country, threaten military action against Sweden and Finland and threaten to launch nuclear weapons against anyone who interferes, but we in Europe are meant to make sure we don't "provoke Russia".

The EU (+UK) has something like 3.5 times the population of Russia and 12 times the economy according to my 5 minutes of research so we shouldn't really be terrified of them. Whatever armed forces they have, we could have bigger and better if we really wanted to.

Maybe being a sociopath just gives you an advantage in international relations. I mean, people actually believe Putin will destroy the world if someone pisses him off, which they probably don't believe about any other world leader even if they have nuclear weapons.

That is the point of Nuclear Weapons and MAD. They force any conflict into a game of chicken with the end of the world. If you are willing to push your luck you can go a long long way.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Paxman posted:

Maybe being a sociopath just gives you an advantage in international relations.

As a historian, it is my sad duty to inform you that it absolutely does.

Archonex
May 2, 2012

MY OPINION IS SEERS OF THE THRONE PROPAGANDA IGNORE MY GNOSIS-IMPAIRED RAMBLINGS

FishBulbia posted:

Georgian battalion just uploaded a video showing them murdering a PoW on camera so we've safely entered Balkan territory here

Got a source/link for this? Because all i'm seeing are obvious russian twitter accounts trying to say that both sides are just as bad, which doesn't exactly make it seem reliable.

Archonex fucked around with this message at 22:35 on Apr 4, 2022

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

FishBulbia posted:

Georgian battalion just uploaded a video showing them murdering a PoW on camera so we've safely entered Balkan territory here

No no this is just Georgian prank no war crimes here

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Paxman posted:

It's so weird that Russia can invade and attempt to annex a European country, threaten military action against Sweden and Finland and threaten to launch nuclear weapons against anyone who interferes, but we in Europe are meant to make sure we don't "provoke Russia".

The EU (+UK) has something like 3.5 times the population of Russia and 12 times the economy according to my 5 minutes of research so we shouldn't really be terrified of them. Whatever armed forces they have, we could have bigger and better if we really wanted to.

Maybe being a sociopath just gives you an advantage in international relations. I mean, people actually believe Putin will destroy the world if someone pisses him off, which they probably don't believe about any other world leader even if they have nuclear weapons.

No, nuclear weapons change the game no matter who is involved.

People seem to forget that this nuclear song and dance is not new. It has been practiced over several generations of conflicts and flare-ups and emergencies. Several times the world has come close to full scale nuclear war due to repeated escalations. NATO is right to avoid it.

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

Telsa Cola posted:

You are discussing the shipment and setting up of logistical networks and trains into an active warzone across the planet like the US just needs to hit a button. You have no idea what this entails or really what you are asking despite multiple people taking the time to explain the difficulties to you.

Yes. The US could probably figure something out but that's likely going to be on the scale of weeks or months.

Alright. I apologize. You did make your points very clear. I'm just extremely upset by all these killings and looking for something that could help defeat Russia.

In the face of these brutal civillian deaths it's hard for me to listen to reason. I just want to throw things at the problem to make it stop.

Paxman
Feb 7, 2010

Count Roland posted:

No, nuclear weapons change the game no matter who is involved.

People seem to forget that this nuclear song and dance is not new. It has been practiced over several generations of conflicts and flare-ups and emergencies. Several times the world has come close to full scale nuclear war due to repeated escalations. NATO is right to avoid it.

But there's clearly a difference in the way Nato is responding to the existence of nuclear weapons and the way Putin responds

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Count Roland posted:

No, nuclear weapons change the game no matter who is involved.

People seem to forget that this nuclear song and dance is not new. It has been practiced over several generations of conflicts and flare-ups and emergencies. Several times the world has come close to full scale nuclear war due to repeated escalations. NATO is right to avoid it.
It does raise the question of where to go from here but these things seem to be strategic and technological questions. They would be addressed on the order of years or decades, although it is probably worth doing.

Paxman posted:

But there's clearly a difference in the way Nato is responding to the existence of nuclear weapons and the way Putin responds
I think the difference is that Putin is playing a weak hand aggressively, so to speak, while NATO has a ton to lose. He has found an advantage and he is pushing it. The thing is that now everyone knows about the advantage, for better or worse, and thanks to his army being for poo poo, he has largely beclowned himself (in international military terms) and will at best end up with the chunk of Ukraine people speculated he might try to actually take, at the loss of essentially all of Russia's soft power, potentially the loss of its largest customer for a primary export that enriches the oligarchs, and a large chunk of Russia's power projection ability.

Is Russia likely to get invaded? No, of course not, that's what their nuclear weapons protect them from.

Nessus fucked around with this message at 22:39 on Apr 4, 2022

Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface

Kraftwerk posted:

Alright. I apologize. You did make your points very clear. I'm just extremely upset by all these killings and looking for something that could help defeat Russia.

In the face of these brutal civillian deaths it's hard for me to listen to reason. I just want to throw things at the problem to make it stop.

It's okay and I understand. If you are able donating or writing to political figures in your area may help, and you will be helping out no matter how small.

I would also recommend taking a media break, because burn out is real. I myself will likely be taking one for the rest of today.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Archonex posted:

Got a source/link for this? Because all i'm seeing are obvious russian twitter accounts trying to say that both sides are just as bad, which doesn't exactly make it seem reliable.

It's a real video you can find, I can't say if whats in it is what it claims to be. its smut either way tho so Im not posting it

Charlotte Hornets
Dec 30, 2011

by Fritz the Horse
Yeah the video is bad.
Seems they ambushed some VDV unit, so extra motivation to do war crimes/no quarter.
Includes a coup de grace for some guy who is doing the death rattle.

This is nothing like kneecapping the POWs we saw earlier.

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

FishBulbia posted:

Georgian battalion just uploaded a video showing them murdering a PoW on camera so we've safely entered Balkan territory here

i would be very surprised if there weren't war crimes against pows given the level of rhetoric, the number of mobilized non-professional military, and the fact that ukraine is being invaded. also why i didn't really doubt the authenticity of the pow knee shooting footage - even more professional armies, even elite units, commit atrocities. there is not really such a thing as a "clean war," you only mitigate the worst crimes. it's unfortunate and will definitely muddy the waters for ukraine, it's hard to build the image of being a "proper european country" (in the sense of how europe sees itself) that needs unconditional support while footage like that is getting out.

Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 22:51 on Apr 4, 2022

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Concerned Citizen posted:

there is not really such a thing as a "clean war," you only mitigate the worst crimes. it's unfortunate and will definitely muddy the waters for ukraine, it's hard to build the image of being a "proper european country" that needs unconditional support while footage like that is getting out.

This is some hosed up reasoning considering your last post ITT was something about Bucha being a one-off thing because of the poor inept Russians are bad at invading.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1511059519220207617?s=21&t=QVlTDxj_241uWv0a8Lmq3w

KingaSlipek
Jun 14, 2009
Regarding the picture of the little girl, she died over a month ago, by shelling, and was not raped. I don´t know why they chose to photograph her naked.

ik edit: :nms: visible corpses later in the article
https://meduza.io/feature/2022/03/30/nikolaev-reportazh-spetskora-novoy-gazety-eleny-kostyuchenko

The report is from the 30th, but mentions she and her sister died on the 5th.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Somebody fucked around with this message at 00:45 on Apr 5, 2022

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

FishBulbia posted:

They already have exchanged prisoners before so I dont see them all being executed on the spot

Yeah, there's probably variance depending on conditions. Some possible scenarios:

Surrendering to an isolated platoon: it's here and there, they might shoot you depending on mood and if they have rations to feed prisoners

Surrendering to troops where a higher officer is present: they might do things by the book while the officer hangs around, unless the officer happens to be a sadistic dick who wants revenge for his unit's losses

Surrendering while tv crew is present: you have very high likelihood of surviving, although the experience may still be nasty

Surrendering as a civilian: you will be accused of being a nazi partisan, the worst odds of all

Surrendering to Nazis/Kadyrovites: ah, you see there's actually worse odds yet!

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
https://twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/1511084582967328780?cxt=HHwWmICylYLbufgpAAAA

This of course does not constitute a credible source of Russian war crimes, coming from Russian media (I have confirmed that a Google search for the phrase finds articles with extracts consistent with it, but didn't read them beyond that, not giving them any clicks), but that they would publish that...

Edit: story from a few weeks ago

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

This is some hosed up reasoning considering your last post ITT was something about Bucha being a one-off thing because of the poor inept Russians are bad at invading.

pretty obviously bad faith read of my post. i definitely did not say bucha was because the russians are inept. bucha happened because the people who did it wanted to murder people. i am saying war crimes happen in wars, they are literally inevitable and every single military commits them. sometimes people die because you are a us convoy running 100mph down a highway shooting everything that gets too close to you, as in it's complete indifference to the lives of others such that you are fine with sacrificing them if it means you are less likely to get harmed, and sometimes the crimes are like bucha or my lai where it is people who have a lot of power & guns deciding they want to kill people.

killing & crippling pows is an atrocity, but it is not a surprise it is happening. nor is it a surprise that russians might murder civilians, because we see it all the time. we do not see rounding up every civilian you can find and killing them very often. what i was talking about in the previous post was "we have not seen other bucha-style massacres but we have seen a lot of war crimes" which as far as i know is correct! but obviously it may end up not being true and we could find more massacres! hopefully that is not the case.

Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 23:01 on Apr 4, 2022

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Concerned Citizen posted:

pretty obviously bad faith read of my post. i definitely did not say bucha was because the russians are inept. bucha happened because the people who did it wanted to murder people. i am saying war crimes happen in wars, they are literally inevitable and every single military commits them. but sometimes people die because you are a us convoy running 100mph down a highway shooting everything that gets to close to you, as in it's complete indifference to the lives of others such that you are fine with sacrificing them if it means you are less likely to get harmed, and sometimes the crimes are like bucha or my lai where it is people who have a lot of power & guns deciding they want to kill people.

Unfortunately then you'd have to ignore that the Russian military in particular has a documented history of doing this poo poo, and this is not a unique case.

GilliamYaeger
Jan 10, 2012

Call Gespenst!

CommieGIR posted:

Unfortunately then you'd have to ignore that the Russian military in particular has a documented history of doing this poo poo, and this is not a unique case.
And, y'know. The 45,000 bodybags they had prepared for an invasion they expected would be a 3-day curbstomp where their enemy would just immediately surrender. Because I'm pretty sure most those weren't planned to be filled with the bodies of soldiers.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Concerned Citizen posted:

pretty obviously bad faith read of my post. i definitely did not say bucha was because the russians are inept. bucha happened because the people who did it wanted to murder people. i am saying war crimes happen in wars, they are literally inevitable and every single military commits them. sometimes people die because you are a us convoy running 100mph down a highway shooting everything that gets too close to you, as in it's complete indifference to the lives of others such that you are fine with sacrificing them if it means you are less likely to get harmed, and sometimes the crimes are like bucha or my lai where it is people who have a lot of power & guns deciding they want to kill people.

killing & crippling pows is an atrocity, but it is not a surprise it is happening. nor is it a surprise that russians might murder civilians, because we see it all the time. we do not see rounding up every civilian you can find and killing them very often. what i was talking about in the previous post was "we have not seen other bucha-style massacres but we have seen a lot of war crimes" which as far as i know is correct! but obviously it may end up not being true and we could find more massacres! hopefully that is not the case.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-mass-burials-regulations/31619324.html

Not So Fast
Dec 27, 2007


ImpAtom posted:

That is the point of Nuclear Weapons and MAD. They force any conflict into a game of chicken with the end of the world. If you are willing to push your luck you can go a long long way.

Countries that gave up their nuclear weapons and got invaded later: Libya and Ukraine

Say what you will about nuclear war but the threat of it is a very effective deterrent. It's not just something that can be brushed off, it's the end of modern civilisation, a knockout back to medieval logistics. It's why since 1949 the primary objective of the USA was avoiding direct war or confrontation with the USSR.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011
A great many of these arguments could have been avoided with only a precursory knowledge of russian history in the past 20 years.

1. That russia would invade
2. They would have targeted lists of people to kill
3. They would not adhere to many if any rules of war

uXs
May 3, 2005

Mark it zero!

Nessus posted:

It does raise the question of where to go from here but these things seem to be strategic and technological questions. They would be addressed on the order of years or decades, although it is probably worth doing.

I think the difference is that Putin is playing a weak hand aggressively, so to speak, while NATO has a ton to lose. He has found an advantage and he is pushing it. The thing is that now everyone knows about the advantage, for better or worse, and thanks to his army being for poo poo, he has largely beclowned himself (in international military terms) and will at best end up with the chunk of Ukraine people speculated he might try to actually take, at the loss of essentially all of Russia's soft power, potentially the loss of its largest customer for a primary export that enriches the oligarchs, and a large chunk of Russia's power projection ability.

Is Russia likely to get invaded? No, of course not, that's what their nuclear weapons protect them from.

The last few days have made me stop caring about Russia's nuclear weapons. gently caress 'em. Give Ukraine everything they want and need, beat the bastards back, drive to Moscow and go drag Putin and his criminals to The Hague. I can't stand it any longer.

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Chrungka
Jan 27, 2015

Concerned Citizen posted:

killing & crippling pows is an atrocity, but it is not a surprise it is happening. nor is it a surprise that russians might murder civilians
I'd just like to point out that I really like your framing.

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