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therobit
Aug 19, 2008

I've been tryin' to speak with you for a long time
I used some drywall anchors that came with some IKEA crap to replace some plastic clips that hold on the anti-skid guard on my wife’s car. They were just the right size and held it securely. Sure am glad I kept that bag of unused IKEA hardware for five years :shepface:

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hobbez
Mar 1, 2012

Don't care. Just do not care. We win, you lose. You do though, you seem to care very much

I'm going to go ride my mountain bike, later nerds.
Pulled up the ol' Zillow today and it was a little shocking to see.... zero houses for sale that are comps to mine. Only a few weeks ago there were at least a dozen active listings using the same search parameters. Most with at least a price cut or two. I know a big part of that is seasonal, but it was surprising there is now just absolutely nothing out there now. Feels like now that the market has cooled people are deciding to sit tight.

I get a little worried about what we're going to do in 18 months. My wife has her heart set on moving back to the Northeast at that time. Gonna be real hard to walk away from this 2.8 mortgage rate. Who knows, maybe if demand becomes that suppressed we'll end up doing okay by getting a deal on a new place? The more I think about it the more I feel like home ownership, on average, is a bit of a zero sum game. When you're in, you're just along for the ride for better or worse. If you decide to move and your mortgage rate goes up, that's a bummer, but if rates are that high prices should also be down too, which should balance things out at least a little... The people that got in this spring got great rates, but they paid out the rear end for them. Seems like it all evens out in the long run, as long as you're buying something you can responsibly afford to buy and maintain.

bort
Mar 13, 2003

I bought in a city where it ought to appreciate, but I'm not thinking of it as an investment. The mortgage/taxes/insurance (with my ʇuɐuǝʇ contribution) keep my costs about the same as when I was renting. I'm going to sink money into not having the building leak or fall down. If I later get that money back, great. If not, well, I don't have to move until I'm ready. Feels a lot like a car. It's an asset but it's getting shittier every day and it costs money.

Sundae
Dec 1, 2005

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

Those are drywall anchors. You tap them in to start with a hammer and finish with a screwdriver, or you drill a pilot hole and run them in. The ones typically supplied with something, like a wall strap for a dresser, are usually more than strong enough.

You should keep a box of variety size anchors around just in case, though.

Please note that you should never, ever use a dry-wall anchor to secure a wall strap for a dresser. Yes, manufacturers include them. Yes, manufacturers know they're ineffective. No, there' s no legal obligation to provide something useful. There is an entire documentary about the rate of child deaths associated with front-heavy/top-heavy dressers and furniture, and how dry-wall anchors do literally nothing to prevent them from toppling on kids (due to things like easy Physics 101 poo poo that are obvious to literally everyone but are ignored to save $0.03 on the manufacturer's end and a few minutes plus a stud-finder on the owner's end).

therobit
Aug 19, 2008

I've been tryin' to speak with you for a long time

Sundae posted:

Please note that you should never, ever use a dry-wall anchor to secure a wall strap for a dresser. Yes, manufacturers include them. Yes, manufacturers know they're ineffective. No, there' s no legal obligation to provide something useful. There is an entire documentary about the rate of child deaths associated with front-heavy/top-heavy dressers and furniture, and how dry-wall anchors do literally nothing to prevent them from toppling on kids (due to things like easy Physics 101 poo poo that are obvious to literally everyone but are ignored to save $0.03 on the manufacturer's end and a few minutes plus a stud-finder on the owner's end).

*puts stud finder on self*

Hey, it works!

Sundae
Dec 1, 2005

therobit posted:

*puts stud finder on self*

Hey, it works!

Grandpa, is that really you?!? :v:

spwrozek
Sep 4, 2006

Sail when it's windy

Listening to you all makes me real glad i worked residential construction growing up.

CRUSTY MINGE
Mar 30, 2011

Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur
I don't have kids and my animals are pretty chill so I anchor nothing in my apartment. Live dangerously.

Dresser was a bad example, yeah.

Sundae
Dec 1, 2005

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

I don't have kids and my animals are pretty chill so I anchor nothing in my apartment. Live dangerously.

Dresser was a bad example, yeah.

Oh yeah, no kids go hog-wild.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

hobbez posted:

I get a little worried about what we're going to do in 18 months. My wife has her heart set on moving back to the Northeast at that time. Gonna be real hard to walk away from this 2.8 mortgage rate.

Rent it out for mortgage + property tax + maintenance?

I would think long and hard about giving up that sweetheart deal. You'll never see 2.8% again. Bank will apply/rebate your income 75% of market monthly rental income of the property when buying a primary residence, in most cases. Even if you take a hit on the rent vs carry cost in the short term... I would pencil out where you'll be on that investment in ten years at current inflation.

Residency Evil
Jul 28, 2003

4/5 godo... Schumi
My mortgage is at 2.875% but I have a recurring nightmare where my basement floods in new ways. Not sure if I came out on top tbqh.

grenada
Apr 20, 2013
Relax.

Hadlock posted:

Rent it out for mortgage + property tax + maintenance?

You're really recommending that they be an out-of-state novice landlord?

+property management? +Vacancy rate? +Tenant screening? My previous landlord was completely inept, and they got destroyed when the deferred maintenance on their property came due and they suddenly had to sink $20k+ into repairs during a time of contractor scarcity and high inflation for materials The cheap handyman that they initially used caused them to burn at least $7k due to him doing things wrong or making incorrect recommendations - they eventually had to get expensive contractors to redo lots of his work and he generally did a lot of damage to the home with his shoddy and rushed work. I see a lot of folks here and elsewhere casually mentioning how they will simply rent out their home so that they don't have to give up with sub 3% rate. That makes sense for someone with DIY skills and that is looking for a side-hustle but I don't think that most people fall into that category. What happens if rents fall because EVERYONE with sub-3% rates has the same plan? My RE agent does 50%+ of the home sales/rentals in our area and she already says that the rental market in our area has slowed to a crawl with rentals are sitting on the market for 30+ days now (I assume this is mostly due to school being in session but still - there's no guarantee you would be able to stay on the summer rental cycle long-term). Also, my understanding is that renting out your home puts you at risk of missing out on the capital gains tax exception (two-in-five rule).

grenada fucked around with this message at 14:40 on Oct 19, 2022

hobbez
Mar 1, 2012

Don't care. Just do not care. We win, you lose. You do though, you seem to care very much

I'm going to go ride my mountain bike, later nerds.

Hadlock posted:

Rent it out for mortgage + property tax + maintenance?

I would think long and hard about giving up that sweetheart deal. You'll never see 2.8% again. Bank will apply/rebate your income 75% of market monthly rental income of the property when buying a primary residence, in most cases. Even if you take a hit on the rent vs carry cost in the short term... I would pencil out where you'll be on that investment in ten years at current inflation.

I'll definitely be running the numbers, don't get me wrong. But I also put a pretty high premium on **not having to deal with that poo poo**, especially if I'm going to be living out of state. If I was moving regionally I'd be more tempted to keep the property, but I'd almost certainly need some form of property manager moving halfway across the country.

quote:

Also, my understanding is that renting out your home puts you at risk of missing out on the capital gains tax exception (two-in-five rule).

This is also a great point.

Motronic
Nov 6, 2009

The other important point, even after you "run the numbers" is to account for the fact that it's a single house in a single location. That level of concentrated risk is almost always going to make the risk-adjusted return much much less than "low cost broad market index fund".

And I've never had any of my index funds call me up at 8 PM on a Sunday to fix a toilet.

hobbez
Mar 1, 2012

Don't care. Just do not care. We win, you lose. You do though, you seem to care very much

I'm going to go ride my mountain bike, later nerds.

Motronic posted:

The other important point, even after you "run the numbers" is to account for the fact that it's a single house in a single location. That level of concentrated risk is almost always going to make the risk-adjusted return much much less than "low cost broad market index fund".

And I've never had any of my index funds call me up at 8 PM on a Sunday to fix a toilet.

Yep this too. I'll probably need the equity from house A to buy house B anyway, unless I draw down investment accounts or something and that would just be dumb. I guess, hey, a low interest rate on your mortgage is REALLY loving NICE! But you can't lose sight of your other priorities or overall life/financial goals over it either. As much as I wish I settled into my "forever home" or whatever at 2.8%, I probably didn't.

Comrade Gritty
Sep 19, 2011

This Machine Kills Fascists
One of the builders around here apparently have some deal worked out with their bank where they're doing a stepped interest rate. 3.5% for the first 2 years, 4.5% for the next 2 years, and then 6.5% (or whatever rate you'd normally be at) for the rest of the life of the loan. I assume something is subsidizing that, but if you can afford it at the 6.5%, seems like a good deal to pay less for a few years, and if rates come down you can refi out of it.

PitViper
May 25, 2003

Welcome and thank you for shopping at Wal-Mart!
I love you!
Yeah, I would assume it's just the builder giving a "discount" in the form of paying a portion of your interest for the first few years. Not a bad deal if you were already budgeting at the higher rate, and want to put the difference to principal.

Just on a quick comparison, that's ~$650 at the difference between 6.5% and 3.5% @$450k and 20% down. I'm guessing you have to use the builders preferred lender for this, otherwise I forsee an extra complicated mortgage process with some sort of second mortgage or added party to the loan.

Also you know people won't understand that their mortgage is going to end up being $650/mo more in a few years.

Edit: A builder just started breaking ground on a new ~300 unit mixed (sfh, townhome, condo) development just up the road about 4-5 months ago, they just finished most of the road/water/power infrastructure and the model home. Between them and the other housing development across the street that still has 10 or so sfh units done but still listed for sale, I forsee a rough housing market in our little town of 7000 people if you're a seller.

PitViper fucked around with this message at 18:05 on Oct 19, 2022

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

laxbro posted:

You're really recommending that they be an out-of-state novice landlord?

+property management? +Vacancy rate? +Tenant screening? My previous landlord was completely inept, and they got destroyed when the deferred maintenance on their property came due and they suddenly had to sink $20k+ into repairs

Yeah it varies on the market, neighborhood, state of repair and other factors. If he's moving out of a SFH that's got a ton of deferred maintenance in a rough neighborhood that's probably not an ideal rental property for an out of state landlord

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Wow I was surprised to see this thread hit page 3 of my bookmarks

Fun statistics, also probably why the first statement is true

average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage hit 6.94% this week, up from 6.92% a week earlier

rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage is averaging 6.23%, up from 6.09% last week

popular five-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 5.71% this week, down from 5.81% a week earlier. A year ago at this time, these adjustable mortgages averaged 2.54%

Joiny
Aug 9, 2005

Would you like to peruse my wares?
Closing in a few days and everything has been running smoothly despite the thread title. Got very lucky with my lender/title/realtor and none of them have been complete idiots. While it sucks that covid delayed us 2 years 5.5% isn't bad to be locked in at and at least we're finally in a house instead of renting forever.

We did (finally) get covid a week and a half ago which blows, but on the mend now. At least we got it early enough so that I can still attend closing and it didn't delay us. It is going to make moving a bitch though since we should probably rest, but maybe I should just hire some white gloves and be done with it. Probably worth the money.

skipdogg
Nov 29, 2004
Resident SRT-4 Expert

Hiring movers is 1000% worth the money.

As long as I have the means I’m never moving myself ever again.

Ne Cede Malis
Aug 30, 2008

Joiny posted:

Closing in a few days and everything has been running smoothly despite the thread title. Got very lucky with my lender/title/realtor and none of them have been complete idiots. While it sucks that covid delayed us 2 years 5.5% isn't bad to be locked in at and at least we're finally in a house instead of renting forever.

We did (finally) get covid a week and a half ago which blows, but on the mend now. At least we got it early enough so that I can still attend closing and it didn't delay us. It is going to make moving a bitch though since we should probably rest, but maybe I should just hire some white gloves and be done with it. Probably worth the money.

We’re in a similar situation. Been looking for 2 years and having no success for a bunch of reasons. We have a rate guarantee of 5.5% expiring soon and it feels like its now or never if we ever buy anything. Sure feels like musical chairs here where the music is about to stop and everyones frozen wherever they are for the next 3-5 years. Its been wild watching the market implode the last 6 months. Ugh

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

skipdogg posted:

Hiring movers is 1000% worth the money.

As long as I have the means I’m never moving myself ever again.

Yeah this.

If you’re broke as gently caress you do what you gotta do. God knows I’ve helped enough friends move and vice verse in my student days.

But if you can afford it, at all, pay someone. Doubly so if you’re not a young, fit 20 year old who can run on 2 hours sleep, beer, and cigs but a 40 year old with bad knees.

therobit
Aug 19, 2008

I've been tryin' to speak with you for a long time

Cyrano4747 posted:

Yeah this.

If you’re broke as gently caress you do what you gotta do. God knows I’ve helped enough friends move and vice verse in my student days.

But if you can afford it, at all, pay someone. Doubly so if you’re not a young, fit 20 year old who can run on 2 hours sleep, beer, and cigs but a 40 year old with bad knees.

As a 40 year old with bad knees, I think the game plan if I have to move again is to get a big dumpster and throw away anything I don’t feel like moving. The other year we considered moving and one of the drivers of our decision to stay and fix up the house was how much of a pain in the rear end moving is.

Jesus In A Can
Jul 2, 2007
From Concentrate
Question for someone who knows more than me about the MLSs. When I search for active listings on realtor.com, I see some houses. Not that many in my area, but some. If I change the search to show me only houses that have sold in the area, I see a lot more houses that have sold than were ever listed on the website. Ones that I should have seen through searching every week if they had been listed.

Is this an example of realtor.com not showing ALL of the houses available in the area and the local realtors using a different MLS?

Motronic
Nov 6, 2009

Jesus In A Can posted:

Question for someone who knows more than me about the MLSs. When I search for active listings on realtor.com, I see some houses. Not that many in my area, but some. If I change the search to show me only houses that have sold in the area, I see a lot more houses that have sold than were ever listed on the website. Ones that I should have seen through searching every week if they had been listed.

Is this an example of realtor.com not showing ALL of the houses available in the area and the local realtors using a different MLS?

Use redfin.com and zillow.com. Look at the sale/listing history of those homes. It should show when they were listed and where.

I find one or the other usually has specifics of which MLS they were listed on.

Also, realtor.com is just a garbage site in general so you probably want to be using one of those other two.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

When I was looking for homes a couple of years ago, realtor.com would consistently show fewer properties than zillow and redfin. Sometimes I'd notice that realtor.com wasn't showing the newest listings (which is bad) but other times there didn't seem to be any rhyme or reason behind why a property would be missing there

Jesus In A Can
Jul 2, 2007
From Concentrate
Perfect, thanks yall! Redfin doesn't cover my area yet, but I'm seeing now on Zillow where the listings are in the listing history.

I'm officially starting the house search in January, but I've gotten a good idea of the types of places available in the area so far. Now to just keep saving up this overtime pay.

Kefit
May 16, 2006
layl
A few weeks ago I was posting about saving money by maybe not hiring movers.

I did end up hiring movers, and that $760 (after tip) was some of the best money I've ever spent. This money is basically a blip compared to all the other money I'm burning through during this home buying and updating process. My only regret was not spending more to get the type of movers who will pack up everything for you.

I still almost broke myself cleaning the apartment and clearing it of my remnants after the movers were done. I had to make endless runs from my third story apartment to the street level dumpster. It's astounding how much I ended up throwing out, even for stuff I actively used every day. Kitchen trash can? Old and gross and super budget model, into the dumpster it goes. Same story for my broom and many other things. It got easier and easier to throw things in the dumpster with every passing hour. I probably should have thrown out more.

m0therfux0r
Oct 11, 2007

me.

Motronic posted:

Use redfin.com and zillow.com. Look at the sale/listing history of those homes. It should show when they were listed and where.

I find one or the other usually has specifics of which MLS they were listed on.

Also, realtor.com is just a garbage site in general so you probably want to be using one of those other two.

One little exception is if a house was sold, but never listed. My current home was bought by the PO in 2016 and they remodeled the entire thing after they moved in (they did a good job- weren't flippers, just had to move out for other life reasons). I ended up buying it because I knew the neighbors and they told me they were trying to sell the house without listing if possible. They wanted $275k and I agreed. It ended up appraising at $276k.

realtor.com is the only one of the big real estate sites that factors in the sale price for the value of my home. Both Zillow and Redfin listed the home anywhere between 220k and 250k depending on the day even though they have the record of my sale in there (it makes it look like I way overpaid, when in reality if they listed it on the market it would have gone for well over what I paid- we bought in 2021). They have no way of knowing that the entire inside of the house has been remodeled since 2016, so that makes sense that they would keep the value low. realtor.com however, factored in my purchase and has the house currently estimated at around 300-315k, which matches what my mortgage company said the last time I talked to them a few weeks ago.

I realize this is a unique scenario- just saying it's something that other sites seem to have missed in their calculations.

Jesus In A Can
Jul 2, 2007
From Concentrate
Thanks for that. The more I talk to people here it does seem as if quite a few houses are sold through word of mouth without a listing. Which pairs with realtor and zillow only having a streetview picture for those sold listings.

Anza Borrego
Feb 11, 2005

Ovis canadensis nelsoni
Relevant to the ongoing discussions in this thread:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-25/think-homeowners-will-stay-put-austin-texas-suggests-otherwise

skipdogg
Nov 29, 2004
Resident SRT-4 Expert


Non paywall link

https://archive.ph/4g2lY

Slugworth
Feb 18, 2001

If two grown men can't make a pervert happy for a few minutes in order to watch a film about zombies, then maybe we should all just move to Iran!
So, normal market trends may not apply to a hot area with a big tech sector? Crazy.

Upgrade
Jun 19, 2021




quote:

In Austin, what appears to be happening is an effort to time the top of the market. Like stock traders, Austin homeowners and investors who bought their properties before the boom appear to be rushing to cash in their chips. “I suspect that people are nervous that home values are going to fall, so they’re trying to sell even if they have low interest rates,” Jim Gaines, a research economist at the Texas Real Estate Research Center, told me by phone. Some may have never lived in the homes; others may be taking the cash proceeds to smaller homes or cheaper suburbs; while others might just be moving into rentals while they wait out a market bottom to buy back in.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

The thing about Austin house prices doing the California thing, is very strange. In California you have a bunch of people fighting to live in the very limited flat areas in between the mountains

All of Texas is perfectly flat for infinity miles in all directions, all of it is buildable. Houston just goes on and on forever for literally 100 miles in all directions

There's a premium to be paid for houses in Austin proper, but if you want to buy an acre of land with a view for $300k and build a new house the county is more than happy to take your money

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Austin isn't flat.
"In terms of geography, Austin isn't like the rest of Texas, which is mostly flat, and that's one of the most unique things about the city. Instead, elevation ranges from 425 feet at lakeside to 1,000 feet in the northwest city hills and to 2,000 feet in The Hill Country."

SlapActionJackson
Jul 27, 2006

And "lack of buildable land" isn't in the top 100 reasons for California housing prices.

in a well actually
Jan 26, 2011

dude, you gotta end it on the rhyme

Leperflesh posted:

Austin isn't flat.
"In terms of geography, Austin isn't like the rest of Texas, which is mostly flat, and that's one of the most unique things about the city. Instead, elevation ranges from 425 feet at lakeside to 1,000 feet in the northwest city hills and to 2,000 feet in The Hill Country."

Wow! Incredible! That’s got to be what, a 3% grade? I can’t imagine finding any buildable land on that slope.

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Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Yeah the point is just that it does have some affect on property values. People in Austin want views and can actually buy them, they want to be nearer to downtown and that creates a premium, it's not like Phoenix that just sprawls forever in every direction. It's also bracketed by a couple of reservoirs and bisected by the colorado river.

But their real problem is zoning and development planning being badly hosed up. E.g.
https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/2021/08/12/council-members-talk-land-development-code-changes.html
There's tons of land zoned as low-density only, within 5 miles of the city center, which has prevented medium and high density housing from being built at all in many cases, and made it more difficult in others. This, not coincidentally, has been a big problem in California too.

e. this is a better coverage of the issues, and a bit newer, although it's definitely got an editorial slant
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-is-austin-so-expensive-map-housing-market-single-family-2021-11

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 01:38 on Oct 27, 2022

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