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it's Kristi's turn in the VP market now
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Sep 1, 2023 17:26
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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8074/Who-will-place-second-in-the-2024-Iowa-Republican-caucuses This is an interesting one. Trump's gonna win, but who will take second?
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Sep 7, 2023 21:28
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jesus i think ron is way overpriced at .40
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Sep 7, 2023 23:42
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i say swears online posted:jesus i think ron is way overpriced at .40 Yep. Usually some Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee overperforms (and typically wins, although Trump will win this year) in Iowa. DeSantis doesn't feel right at all. Looks like there is still upward momentum in the buys for Desantis so I may hold off for a bit and see how high he gets.
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Sep 7, 2023 23:52
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yeah he can't do folksy and doesn't have a healthy trajectory
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Sep 7, 2023 23:52
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Vox Nihili posted:Yep. Usually some Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee overperforms (and typically wins, although Trump will win this year) in Iowa. DeSantis doesn't feel right at all. I still don't have money in this (yet) but I sort of think that Desantis is cut from the same cloth as Cruz, Huckabee, or for that matter Santorum. None of these men (DeSantis included) is charismatic in any way, I remember Huckabee trying to play the role of happy warrior but the rest of them are come combo of weird/awkward/repugnant, again DeSantis included. Of course none of them went anywhere after Iowa. What they all have in common is they all ran hard to the right of the eventual nominee. To me Iowa screams DeSantis, if anything Trump at 15 cents seems undervalued. Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 05:03 on Sep 8, 2023 |
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Sep 8, 2023 01:10
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Sep 8, 2023 21:52
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I still don't have money in this (yet) but I sort of think that Desantis is cut from the same cloth as Cruz, Huckabee, or for that matter Santorum. None of these men (DeSantis included) is charismatic in any way, I remember Huckabee trying to play the role of happy warrior but the rest of them are come combo of weird/awkward/repugnant, again DeSantis included. Of course none of them went anywhere after Iowa. What they all have in common is they all ran hard to the right of the eventual nominee. To me Iowa screams DeSantis, if anything Trump at 15 cents seems undervalued. Trump is crushing the Iowa polls so far, I really don't see any way he drops a single primary state this year
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Sep 8, 2023 22:02
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Noem spiked in the GOP VP market last night, reaching 27 cents at one point It's Her Turn (to make me money)
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Sep 9, 2023 13:23
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oh lol thanks for reminding me, I scooped up a couple thousand shares in the teens and set a sell ten cents higher. let's go check! edit rip I set the sell at .28
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Sep 9, 2023 16:37
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https://kalshi.com/markets/manchin/manchin-leaves-dem-leadership#manchin-24nov06 The Kalshi market on Manchin "leaving" the Dem party is confusing to me. He's not running in 2024. Does that mean he's "leaving the Senate leadership of the Dem party"?
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Nov 14, 2023 04:41
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animedatingsim posted:https://kalshi.com/markets/manchin/manchin-leaves-dem-leadership#manchin-24nov06
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Nov 14, 2023 04:43
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Gavin is at ~17 points for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination. That's some dumb easy money.
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Dec 1, 2023 16:59
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insane poo poo. that debate is probably his high water mark unless sleepy joe has a stroke i'm sitting on $300 available and think i should just sink it into that instead of waiting for a better opportunity
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Dec 1, 2023 18:04
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I paid .90 for my shares many moons ago. Oops. Still have my .37 Biden Yes shares, though.
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Dec 1, 2023 19:06
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Gucci Loafers posted:Gavin is at ~17 points for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination. That's some dumb easy money. Biden resigns during first term is also at 14. Nomination market resolves way earlier though, I guess freeing the money up earlier is worth a considerable amount.
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Dec 1, 2023 20:43
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Gucci Loafers posted:Gavin is at ~17 points for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination. That's some dumb easy money. yeah he's really taken the spotlight for conservative maniacs despite not exactly being an electable candidate and certainly not running this cycle outside of Biden actually dying outright
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Dec 1, 2023 20:53
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if biden drops dead tomorrow, the party lines up behind kamala and freezes him out anyway. he doesn't win a campaign, and certainly doesn't win an insurgent campaign
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Dec 1, 2023 21:33
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Baddog posted:Biden resigns during first term is also at 14. Nomination market resolves way earlier though, I guess freeing the money up earlier is worth a considerable amount. I didn't see this market either. Looks like I am again making another deposit. 
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Dec 2, 2023 04:40
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On another topic, Trump is at 40 points for the 2024 US Pres Election. And it's still trending up. I honestly don't get how it's that high and the trend.
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Dec 2, 2023 05:05
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Gucci Loafers posted:On another topic, Trump is at 40 points for the 2024 US Pres Election. And it's still trending up. I honestly don't get how it's that high and the trend. probably cuz he's leading biden in the polls
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Dec 2, 2023 05:45
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Gucci Loafers posted:On another topic, Trump is at 40 points for the 2024 US Pres Election. And it's still trending up. I honestly don't get how it's that high and the trend.
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Dec 2, 2023 05:59
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biden's victory over trump in 2020 was razor thin despite disastrous pandemic and economic conditions the economy might massively poo poo the bed between here and the general, which is not good for an incumbent
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Dec 2, 2023 06:30
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Gucci Loafers posted:On another topic, Trump is at 40 points for the 2024 US Pres Election. And it's still trending up. I honestly don't get how it's that high and the trend. The race as of today looks pretty close to being a coin flip You may wonder how the Dems have fumbled the bag that badly, and well, it's just what they do
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Dec 2, 2023 06:42
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Definitely looking forward to 11 more months of "if you don't vote for biden YOU are the cause of the death of our democracy". Surely that's a winning platform.
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Dec 2, 2023 08:33
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Baddog posted:Definitely looking forward to 11 more months of "if you don't vote for biden YOU are the cause of the death of our democracy". Surely that's a winning platform. got a friend that's still shrieking about trump putting kids in cages after nearly three years of biden asylum bullshit
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Dec 2, 2023 12:05
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Vox Nihili posted:The race as of today looks pretty close to being a coin flip
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Dec 2, 2023 14:12
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Gucci Loafers posted:I honestly don't get how it's that high and the trend. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=creay7X9XNU
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Dec 2, 2023 19:43
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My perspective is that the election are still nearly a year away. There is a lot that can still change and likely will change. Basically, I have a difficult time putting a lot of weight into weather forecasts that are months and months away. I think people are taking recent polling too far but YMMV. Gucci Loafers has issued a correction as of 07:40 on Dec 3, 2023 |
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Dec 2, 2023 22:07
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Handy reference table for the next few years https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
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Dec 3, 2023 14:46
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distortion park posted:Handy reference table for the next few years https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html I know you posted this re: great grampa B if re-elected, only about a 68% chance to make it 4 years... although that is with the average health care, which ain't great for your bog standard nursing home resident but drat, it got me depressed looking at my expected number of years left.
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Dec 3, 2023 19:54
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Baddog posted:I know you posted this re: great grampa B if re-elected, only about a 68% chance to make it 4 years... although that is with the average health care, which ain't great for your bog standard nursing home resident Biden's also a lot healthier looking than the average guy his age (idk about trump) but it's gotta be a serious cap on any sort of bet similar to "biden/trump is president in 2027"
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Dec 3, 2023 21:37
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distortion park posted:Biden's also a lot healthier looking than the average guy his age (idk about trump) but it's gotta be a serious cap on any sort of bet similar to "biden/trump is president in 2027"
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Dec 6, 2023 05:02
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Given that Trump doesn't work out and almost always ate McDonalds or whatever terrible fast food joint time is not his side at all. On another note, with Trump serious legal woes and donors moving towards Nikki I am thinking I might put a bit down. Does anyone else see any interesting opportunities?
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Dec 6, 2023 05:51
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Gucci Loafers posted:Given that Trump doesn't work out and almost always ate McDonalds or whatever terrible fast food joint time is not his side at all. On another note, with Trump serious legal woes and donors moving towards Nikki I am thinking I might put a bit down. If we're going to talk hypotheticals, I think Nikki would actually demolish Biden. She's at 10 though, that seems high already. Trump's lead over the field just seems to keep growing.
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Dec 6, 2023 06:08
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2nd place iowa is the exciting market imo
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Dec 6, 2023 06:10
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Baddog posted:If we're going to talk hypotheticals, I think Nikki would actually demolish Biden. She's at 10 though, that seems high already. Trump's lead over the field just seems to keep growing. I think she would at a minimum give Biden a challenge but the one flip side while he is slow he isn't an idiot either. On the other hand, she's a strong conservative whom got way, way too close Trump. Her record on things like the whole Confederate Flag thing are quite rough.
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Dec 6, 2023 06:31
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Anyone looking to get more money into "it's going to be one of Trump or Biden, idiots" can get something like 30c worth of Noes in the GE market: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
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Dec 28, 2023 00:21
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Anybody making bank on 2nd place tonight?
Merlot Brougham has issued a correction as of 04:13 on Jan 16, 2024 |
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Jan 16, 2024 04:06
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| # ? Jun 10, 2024 11:24 |
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well i was
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Jan 16, 2024 04:07
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