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long story short i think the PI market is at a fair price right now and if you want to put money on joe at .46 feel free to do so
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Jan 22, 2024 03:58
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can you show any polling whatsoever that suggests biden's recent wars in gaza and yemen are helping his polling as a wartime president? everything suggests the opposite also when a war drags on and goes bad (i.e. ukraine) it can eventually hurt the sitting president's polling even if it initially helps. see: bush.
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Jan 22, 2024 04:00
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Gucci Loafers posted:May you expand on that theory? How certain of you are of this and why? Trump won Michigan in 2016 by 11,000 votes. Biden won Michigan in 2020 by 55,000 votes. The last two cycles it's been an extremely tight state, and given 2024 is shaping up to be a repeat of 2020 there's no reason to imagine that it's going to be any different before current events are taken into account
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Jan 22, 2024 04:02
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if you make a bet on the presidential outcome, be prepared to have the money light on fire. after 2016 and 2020, the only conclusion you should reach is there is no sure bet here. only chaos
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Jan 22, 2024 04:06
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TeenageArchipelago posted:Trump won Michigan in 2016 by 11,000 votes. Biden won Michigan in 2020 by 55,000 votes. The last two cycles it's been an extremely tight state, and given 2024 is shaping up to be a repeat of 2020 there's no reason to imagine that it's going to be any different before current events are taken into account Good point. I don't think it'll be an easy election but I don't see how it'll be like 2020. A lot has changed. Are we not suppose to takes things like changes in economic sentiment and conditions? Or Trump ever increasingly difficult legal issues that are likely criminal?
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Jan 22, 2024 04:08
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a lot of american voters do not perceive the january 6th events or pending legal prosecutions in the light that you do. polling reflects this. it's those people that vote.
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Jan 22, 2024 04:11
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What was the last president who wasn't a "wartime president"?
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Jan 22, 2024 04:18
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Yeah, this isn't quite the thread to get to into it, and I hate commenting when I don't have any money riding on anything (too poor to bet now). But don't let yourself get into a bubble. It'll cost you a lot of money. I still have fond memories of watching a D&D guy doubling down on 2016 election day that Hillary would win Florida  . I didn't realize that there was polling on it, but 43% of Americans say that too much is being made of January 6th. Only 55% of people say that it was a big deal. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4384615-majority-in-new-poll-say-jan-6-was-attack-on-democracy-that-should-never-be-forgotten/. "War-time president" isn't an automatic winner. I think Biden's single biggest approval hit was the Afghanistan withdrawal. I don't see Ukraine getting better before the election and Israel certainly doesn't seem to be helping him, not even counting whether it costs him Michigan. If the conflict expands and fucks up gas prices or chokes shipping then there will be hell to pay. If I'm not loving around online, I'd say 50-50 feels about right. Biden's weak as hell and not doing much to help it and Trump has momentum. But some of Biden's problems might fade by the election and abortion is the wild card. If the democrats manage to actually agitate around it and motivate turnout they could be fine.
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Jan 22, 2024 04:27
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Ditocoaf posted:What was the last president who wasn't a "wartime president"? lol, drat. For a "wartime" sort of boost, at this point it has to be US paratroopers getting dropped into crimea. Maybe not even that, no one cares about troops in iraq and syria. Maybe it would take china going hot on taiwan. For 90% of americans, giving weapons to ukraine and israel is about on the same level of news as "it's snowing in nepal". If they are even still paying attention at all.
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Jan 22, 2024 04:29
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Gucci Loafers posted:Good point. I don't think it'll be an easy election but I don't see how it'll be like 2020. A lot has changed. Are we not suppose to takes things like changes in economic sentiment and conditions? Or Trump ever increasingly difficult legal issues that are likely criminal? Exactly. Like I said, before current events are taken into account it looks like Michigan, at the very least, is going to just about be a coin flip. But current events matter. The Gaza Genocide, the economy, January 6th, ect. I'm not going to pretend to know what the hell is going to happen, if you think that you have a good guess then go for it. Plus who knows what the year is going to bring
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Jan 22, 2024 04:39
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Even actuarially, there is significant uncertainty, one of these guys could plausibly have a stroke and die mid debate.
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Jan 22, 2024 04:43
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definitely remember to put your bets on no or on a party winning the race
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Jan 22, 2024 04:54
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comedyblissoption posted:definitely remember to put your bets on no or on a party winning the race except for my 6000 pritzker yesses edit lol I forgot I was holding some don jr in case of trumpdeath
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Jan 22, 2024 05:49
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cashed out my Gavin NOs today, people really went bonkers driving him up a few months ago. seemed almost too good to be true at the time or else I would have gone in for more lol
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Jan 22, 2024 20:04
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That was a fun market. Do we know when they are going to open more or are we basically just waiting for the election?
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Jan 23, 2024 01:22
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do I dare tempt fate with Gavin again
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Feb 8, 2024 22:32
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Grey Fox posted:do I dare tempt fate with Gavin again imo if biden drops dead, gavin's price will spike, but will spike with a relatively smaller % bounce than others. if you think biden isn't the nominee, pritzker and harris are undervalued compared to the rest of the field. harris is almost certainly the nominee in case of a not-biden
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Feb 9, 2024 00:30
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i say swears online posted:harris is almost certainly the nominee in case of a not-biden mmmmm, I just don't see it.
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Feb 9, 2024 00:59
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good buying opportunity for Biden Yes and Gavin No today
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Feb 9, 2024 01:14
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Vox Nihili posted:good buying opportunity for Biden Yes and Gavin No today  that presser was disastrous...for newsom holders!!!
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Feb 9, 2024 03:48
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Jesus christ "biden resign in first term" hit 22 cents at one point today.
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Feb 9, 2024 05:40
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Kamala on the 2024 ticket is below 80 cents lol
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Feb 9, 2024 14:36
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reignonyourparade posted:Jesus christ "biden resign in first term" hit 22 cents at one point today. And it's at still 18 points. 
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Feb 9, 2024 14:57
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Goddamn, do I put more money into this website?
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Feb 9, 2024 15:06
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Hah, I was holding out for them to be able to offer some deposit bonuses before reloading, but drat this is looking tempting.
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Feb 9, 2024 19:51
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Yeah, I withdrew everything at the end of 2022 but this finally got me back in. Free money is free money. (Honestly, I should have done it way earlier. I knew without a doubt that DeSantis was never going to be the nominee over Trump the first time I actually heard him speak, which was right around the height of his rising stardom before everyone else had also heard him speak.)
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Feb 9, 2024 21:51
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OK, dropped in some more. The electoral college market looks pretty tempting to pick up easy money as well.
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Feb 9, 2024 22:24
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I know nothing about the EC market, how are you working with that?
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Feb 10, 2024 08:02
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Baddog posted:OK, dropped in some more. The electoral college market looks pretty tempting to pick up easy money as well. How do you imagine the electoral college going, and where are you seeing the easy money?
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Feb 22, 2024 02:17
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Merlot Brougham posted:How do you imagine the electoral college going, and where are you seeing the easy money? I just started by grabbing no on the top 3 GOP brackets, 105+, and the last DEM bracket, 215+. I've been eyeballing the next 2 brackets on D because I have a really hard time seeing how dems could win by more than 102 either.
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Feb 22, 2024 04:02
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good strat. no such thing as an electoral blowout anymore, and you're betting against irrational boosters on both sides
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Feb 22, 2024 05:07
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Kamala on the 2024 ticket is down to .82
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Feb 24, 2024 01:04
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that's more a consequence of deathwatch than her efficacy and future on the ticket
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Feb 24, 2024 01:17
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i say swears online posted:that's more a consequence of deathwatch than her efficacy and future on the ticket
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Feb 24, 2024 01:31
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a lot of bettors imo think she'd skink in a free-for-all in that scenario and therefore she's underpriced, yeah. the better move is against newsom but if you're maxed out on that this would be ok too kamala sucks but it wouldn't change the fact that the party would instantly solidify around her in the case of joedeath
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Feb 24, 2024 01:32
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Glad to have cast a proud ballot today for Chris Christie in the Michigan Republican primary. E: You can't go "uncommitted" on the Dem side, I've got money riding on that poo poo.
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Feb 28, 2024 05:51
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So, who does Trump actually pick for his running mate, anyway?
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Mar 1, 2024 02:29
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noem
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Mar 1, 2024 06:08
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some lunatics briefly brought the Kamala 2024 Prez/VP Dem ticket down to .70 a few days ago and I missed it. back at .85 now.
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Mar 4, 2024 20:35
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https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/white-house-lifting-its-covid-19-testing-rule-for-people-around-biden I feel like this raises the odds of him getting all hosed up in the next 6 months considerably, even if they mainline paxlovid into him as soon as he tests +. But "Joe not the nominee" and "Joe not the next president" are too drat high already. 24 cents not the nominee, 58 not the president. Too much. Harris the 47th president at 26 cents is starting to seem a little promising though. Wish I'd grabbed some a few weeks ago, even if just to hedge.
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Mar 5, 2024 09:08
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