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RestRoomLiterature-
Jun 3, 2008

staying regular
The recent events would be peddled as an overall haunting of the Japanese strategic advance, with the repulsion in Australia and reversals in Burma. Costly but politically not fatal.

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KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Chuu posted:

My view of World War II is so colored by the way it's taught in the US and the fact we won that I can't really answer. There is a lot of America (gently caress yeah) in the way it's taught; but I can't help but think that some parts of America were just tired of War after the meat grinder that was the eastern campaign. Vietnam definitely shows there is an upper limit.

Vietnam wasn't even close to an even arguably existential war where the US was directly attacked.

What do you mean about the meat grinder that was the eastern campaign?

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
The difficulty in swaying political opinion enough to get the Americans to sue for peace in partially reflected in the scale and scope of the victory conditions:

If it's 1943, you need 4 times the VPs of your opponent to trigger a victory
If it's 1944, you need 3 times the VPs of your opponent to trigger a victory
If it's 1945, you need 2 times the VPs of your opponent to trigger a victory

And right now Grey has 1.735x the VPs of the Americans

wedgekree
Feb 20, 2013
I think somsone said (way earlier in the Milne Bay Campaign) that the Americans have (until the Essex comes online) just one CV left in Hornet plus mostly CVE's and possibly a CVL. Only the CVL can keep up with fleet operations as the CVE's only carry small air grousp can can only make 16-18 knots flank speed.

Not to mention the generally brutal losses thier Navy air crews have had and the fact they're gonna take awhile to train up new pilots.

Also a (very rough) estimate of the losses both sides took at Milne Bay (not counting pilots, tankers, planes, etc)..

The IJN lost the Shokaku, the Mutsu, I believe at least one CA and two or three Destroyers..

Americans lost four carriers (Enterprise, Lexington, Saratoga, YOrktown). One BB (The North Carolina). Three CLAA's (two at the battle, one torpedoed while nearing Pearl Harbor). Majority if not all of the other escorts (CA's and DD's that accompanied the carrier TF's).

wedgekree fucked around with this message at 07:49 on Dec 24, 2016

Lord Koth
Jan 8, 2012

wedgekree posted:

I think somsone said (way earlier in the Milne Bay Campaign) that the Americans have (until the Essex comes online) just one CV left in Hornet plus mostly CVE's and possibly a CVL. Only the CVL can keep up with fleet operations as the CVE's only carry small air grousp can can only make 16-18 knots flank speed.

Not to mention the generally brutal losses thier Navy air crews have had and the fact they're gonna take awhile to train up new pilots.

Also a (very rough) estimate of the losses both sides took at Milne Bay (not counting pilots, tankers, planes, etc)..

The IJN lost the Shokaku, the Mutsu, I believe at least one CA and two or three Destroyers..

Americans lost four carriers (Enterprise, Lexington, Saratoga, YOrktown). One BB (The North Carolina). Three CLAA's (two at the battle, one torpedoed while nearing Pearl Harbor). Majority if not all of the other escorts (CA's and DD's that accompanied the carrier TF's).

Reasonably good summary, but the IJN actually lost Akagi, not Shokaku. Which is significantly better, since Akagi is ultimately a subpar battlecruiser conversion, whereas Shokaku was a purpose-built fleet carrier. The only thing Akagi had going for her was more experienced aircrews, and in this history the surviving planes managed to land at friendly air bases rather than having to ditch and be lost. Also apparently an excellent cook, who may or may not have been lost.

I don't believe Mutsu was lost either. Last we saw she was simply damaged, on fire, and heading back to port. Will take time for repairs, but far less costly than an actual loss.

dtkozl
Dec 17, 2001

ultima ratio regum
At least in the ww2 ken burns documentary he started to make a case for large scale union agitation in 1945. Plus the army's policy of leaving divisions in the field for literally the entire war without rest and refit was becoming a strain.

It is one of those things where we will never know but there is certainly a case to be made for some sort of negotiated settlement after crisis at home.

Plek
Jul 30, 2009

wedgekree posted:


Not to mention the generally brutal losses thier Navy air crews have had and the fact they're gonna take awhile to train up new pilots.


Someone had mentioned the airgroup loss mechanics earlier, and the general idea behind it seems to imply that we should consider the American pilots just fine. The planes get nixed, but the pilots get auto-rescued and shipped home.

e: Not counting pilots actually shot down, though.

wedgekree
Feb 20, 2013

Lord Koth posted:

Reasonably good summary, but the IJN actually lost Akagi, not Shokaku. Which is significantly better, since Akagi is ultimately a subpar battlecruiser conversion, whereas Shokaku was a purpose-built fleet carrier. The only thing Akagi had going for her was more experienced aircrews, and in this history the surviving planes managed to land at friendly air bases rather than having to ditch and be lost. Also apparently an excellent cook, who may or may not have been lost.

I don't believe Mutsu was lost either. Last we saw she was simply damaged, on fire, and heading back to port. Will take time for repairs, but far less costly than an actual loss.

Thanks for the corrections! So I guess it comes down to whether the 'stranded pilots' thing fires or not given the Americans seemt o have possibly lost their entire fleet they had in the field and deployed. I'm not sure a single Destroyer could pick up 3-400 pilots and take them back to Pearl.

Crazycryodude
Aug 15, 2015

Lets get our X tons of Duranium back!

....Is that still a valid thing to jingoistically blow out of proportion?


Does anybody know the exact formula for whether or not pilots get rescued? Because all those American pilots went down deep in enemy territory and the fleet that could conceivably rescue them was destroyed almost to the man, with the survivors scurrying back to port.

Jobbo_Fett
Mar 7, 2014

Slava Ukrayini

Clapping Larry

Generation Internet posted:

quote:

quote:
7.0.1.1.1.1 EMERGENCY LANDINGS

Planes attempting to return to a Carrier that has been damaged sufficiently to prevent aircraft
operations will instead attempt to land on another Carrier or airfield that is within its remaining
range. Planes won’t make an emergency landing on another Carrier in such a way as to cause
it to exceed 110% of the carrier’s aircraft capacity. Planes that are redirected in such a manner
will attempt to return to their parent Carrier when conditions are improved. When all friendly
Carriers are full to their 110% max capacity Aircraft will suffer ops losses, but their pilots will
have a higher rate of survival. This emulates a ditching next to the carrier.

In the case where a CV TF is operating “Blue Water Ops”, or out of range from friendly landbased
AFs Mass Ditching may occur, but the likelihood of the pilots surviving is higher than
normal Ops losses as it is assumed that the Ditching occur within the CV TF and pilots may be
recovered. Where entire parent units are lost, pilots are set to the Reserve Pilot pool with an
associated 2 week travel delay, where they will become available for reassignment to other
units, or the Training Command pool.

Bozart
Oct 28, 2006

Give me the finger.
Just a reminder of the approximate number of carriers coming from the US over the next few years... (from http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm not WITP, but it should be somewhere in the neighborhood of right?)

pre:
United States	
	CV/CVL/CVE	BB	CA/CL	DD	Escorts	Subs
1941	-		2	1	2	-	2	
1942	18		4	8	82	-	34
1943	65		2	11	128	298	55
1944	45		2	14	74	194	81
1945	13		-	14	63	6	31
Total	141		10	48	349	498	203

Japan
	CV/CVL/CVE	BB	CA/CL	DD	Escorts	Subs
1941	6		1	-	-	?	-
1942	4		1	4	10	?	61
1943	2		-	3	12	?	37
1944	5		-	2	24	?	39
1945	-		-	-	17	?	30
Total	17		2	9	63	?	167

whitewhale
Feb 21, 2013

Lord Koth posted:

It has been just over a year since Pearl, so blood would still be running hot enough that this loss could be shaken off as far as the public is concerned. Now if the AI continues throwing away ships you could probably make a case by late '43 to mid '44 that at some point the public would start getting annoyed at just how many lives were being lost for seemingly no gain.

Although in this Grey-Verse Pearl only showed how ineffective carriers really were, while it's still going to enrage the public it wouldn't have anywhere near the impact of Real-Verse Pearl.

Crazycryodude
Aug 15, 2015

Lets get our X tons of Duranium back!

....Is that still a valid thing to jingoistically blow out of proportion?


This entire timeline has just been one anemic showing by carriers after the other. If this was real life, I wouldn't be surprised to see lots of US carriers getting canceled in favor of superheavy BB's like the Montanas.

Grey Hunter
Oct 17, 2007

Hero of the soviet union.
Accidental destroyer of planets






The bombers go out again, but at least this time they have some fighter support.



We still take losses, but less.







We have a second day of Hankow, I'll have a third as the losses are running high for the Chinese. And what says Xmas more than mass death?



This is just getting silly now.







The Chinese can't have many replacements left at this rate!

Slippery42
Nov 10, 2011

Bozart posted:

Just a reminder of the approximate number of carriers coming from the US over the next few years... (from http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm not WITP, but it should be somewhere in the neighborhood of right?)

"Only" about half of these make it to the Pacific. Remember, a lot of those CVEs were needed for ASW duty in the Atlantic. In-game, the Allies get about 80 or so CVEs over the course of the game. I always saw them as more of a liability than an asset. Their B-list fighters only offer token resistance against any escorted raid in mid-'43 onward, and their Avenger squadrons are small enough at 9 planes a piece that they represent little more than a mobile ASW platform.

Knowing the AI, the number of CVEs the Allies launch might actually be good for Grey. They'll send them at his most heavily-defended bases 1 or 2 at a time and give him a free 80ish points per ship.

goatface
Dec 5, 2007

I had a video of that when I was about 6.

I remember it being shit.


Grimey Drawer
They're mobile asw patrol platforms and plane ferries. They aren't meant to get in fights, they're meant to stop the light raiders.

Velius
Feb 27, 2001
Typically allied players will run what they call "death stars" of every CV and CVL capable of fleet speed, and a shitload of fighter only CVEs on top of that to provide local cover for the fleet carriers. This splits the Japanese strikes and provides them a heavy, heavy fighter cover. For some reason, be it a combination of dwindling pilot quality, airframe quality, AA, or some other aspect of the engine the Japanese are almost never successful with strikes on Allied carriers come mid 1944 or onwards. I've seen strikes with a thousand planes die without a single hit. Meanwhile allied counter strikes at that point are almost invariably successful. I'm almost suspecting something hard coded at this point. Allied CVEs are softer targets by far, but may be more durable than the Japanese CVs.

Jimmy4400nav
Apr 1, 2011

Ambassador to Moonlandia

Velius posted:

Typically allied players will run what they call "death stars" of every CV and CVL capable of fleet speed, and a shitload of fighter only CVEs on top of that to provide local cover for the fleet carriers. This splits the Japanese strikes and provides them a heavy, heavy fighter cover. For some reason, be it a combination of dwindling pilot quality, airframe quality, AA, or some other aspect of the engine the Japanese are almost never successful with strikes on Allied carriers come mid 1944 or onwards. I've seen strikes with a thousand planes die without a single hit. Meanwhile allied counter strikes at that point are almost invariably successful. I'm almost suspecting something hard coded at this point. Allied CVEs are softer targets by far, but may be more durable than the Japanese CVs.

That softness yet durability maybe be there to reflect real life. The Americans had damage control down to an art, reading Shattered Sword apparently the Americans were pretty advanced when it came to "make sure everyone on the ship can work towards keeping the ship afloat if it's hit". They made sure everyone from the mechanics to the toilet scrubbers knew damage control so everyone could pitch in to bail water, fight fires, patch holes and more. In addition, American carriers opted for open hanger designs which meant if a bomb penetrated, the explosive force would be somewhat dissipated. Finally the Americans stored the navigation fuel is deep well fortified portions of the ship. The Japanese tended to assign damage control training to specialists in the ship rather than training everyone. This means that only a handful of dudes comparatively knew what to do if a ship was hit. They also used sealed hangers which helped protect planes from the elements, but meant that if a bomb exploded in the hanger the blast would be not have the open space to channel outward so would do more damage. Finally since their aviation fuel tended to be stored closer to their planes and in lines around the ship, this made things more flammable.

For comparison, it took two torpedoes and two heavy bombs penetrating the Lexington to put her out of action (out enough she had to be scuttled). Akagi and Kaga were both put out of action by one or two well placed bombs (though the were loaded down quite a bit).

For what the ramifications of Milne Bay, at this juncture its had to estimate how this would affect the long term pace of the conflict.

We've got 9 Independence-Class Light Carriers all slated to be finished by the end of 1943, with 5 of them coming online before the end of June. These ships could hold 24 Hellcats and 9 Avengers. While not a ton of planes, combine they do equal some force, for traditional carrier task forced they provided almost 40% of the fighter cover.

We've also got 6 Essex Class Carriers in the pipeline to be finished by the end of 1943 though only 4 of those will be ready by June. Each Essex could carry almost 100 planes alone with a main complement of 36 fighters, 36 dive bombers and 18 torpedo bombers, though each carrier usually carried a few spare planes nearing their max.,

All together this means that come June, assuming the Americans don't piecemeal their fleet, the Americans can have a Carrier force of 5 light carriers and 4 fleet carriers with a combine total of 575 planes. This puts them at parity with the Kido Butai within 5-6 months of the Allies crushing defeat, and that's assuming we can put the Hornet down these next few months, if nt then they could possibly have a carrier fleet larger than our own. Make no mistake, we got drat near the perfect victory at Milne Bay, but we still lost two carriers. Shōhō was a negligible loss, since it IRL died in early 1942 during Coral Sea it usually never factors into many calculations for Japanese victory. Akagi, while our earliest built carrier and therefore our crappiest, still hurts us badly with its loss. Its compliment of 65 active and 25 reserve planes were quite an asset, and while we saved its experienced pilots, we still are going to need every hull, so its loss will still sting badly in the battles to come.

That said, assuming we don't split the fleet or suffer any more losses, we're going to have a relatively free hand in the ocean these next few months. What this means is that we'll need to finish our conquest of the islands surrounding Australia ASAP. Each airbase we can build means more planes we can have in the air searching for incoming Americans and their own fleet and also planes we can use to bomb them without fear of losing our fleet. New Caledonia and the other outlying Solomon Islands once taken can finish our perimeter and if we are really feeling bold, maybe even Midway too since now the Americans lack a fleet arm to protect it these next few months. After the outer perimeter is secured, we can back fill the rest of the islands and New Guinea and wait for the Americans to come to us, as they'll have to cut themselves on our island bastions while our fleet can thrust like a dagger at theirs. We'll need ti be careful where we pick our battle though, we want to be able to strike down with overwhelming force, so hopefully if we use our carriers we'll have island planes assisting as well.

Grey Hunter
Oct 17, 2007

Hero of the soviet union.
Accidental destroyer of planets






Apparently most people are having the day off.







Just get back to your turkey. I hope Santa has brought you all the hex based games you asked for.

lenoon
Jan 7, 2010

Merry Christmas Grey

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
Seems like Grey didn't change the Assault Orders to "No football nor caroling"

Ikasuhito
Sep 29, 2013

Haram as Fuck.

Christmas Truce : Pacific addition.

Crazycryodude
Aug 15, 2015

Lets get our X tons of Duranium back!

....Is that still a valid thing to jingoistically blow out of proportion?


Forum claims Ikasuhito posted but it ain't showing up. Maybe this will shake it loose.

E: Yup, there it is.

Ikasuhito
Sep 29, 2013

Haram as Fuck.

Yeah I don't know what happened. My internet connection decided to keel over dead the moment I hit submit and that happened.

Grey Hunter
Oct 17, 2007

Hero of the soviet union.
Accidental destroyer of planets
Boxing day will be a bit late - babysitting my inlaws and an actual baby (less work than the inlaws) screwed up my scedule and now I'm at work.

Grey Hunter
Oct 17, 2007

Hero of the soviet union.
Accidental destroyer of planets






drat you and your working torpedoes.







Hey! And air kill!







A Hundred fighters and we can't score a single air-to-air kill. That's sixteen fighters per bomber with a few spare.







These guys are not resting up, so I'm going to keep on attacking for now.



Time to work off that Xmas turkey!







A standard tickover day.



Except for this. Grr.

Grey Hunter
Oct 17, 2007

Hero of the soviet union.
Accidental destroyer of planets






Submarines, my best anti-sub weapon.







Well hello there.







I wish there was an “ignore this base” button – I could restrict their range, but then I'm hurting myself in other directions.







Just keep on grinding men!







I love how the US has not apparently given standing orders to submerge as soon as leaving Pearl.

Mikl
Nov 8, 2009

Vote shit sandwich or the shit sandwich gets it!

Grey Hunter posted:







Submarines, my best anti-sub weapon.

I love how the US has not apparently given standing orders to submerge as soon as leaving Pearl.

Wait, how many times does that make now? I don't remember it happening quite this often in real life.

Ardeem
Sep 16, 2010

There is no problem that cannot be solved through sufficient application of lasers and friendship.
Greyverse 2 is a weird place:

Carriers are useless
Battleships rule the seas
And the only thing that can kill a submarine is another submarine.

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

I-400 vs. Surcouf: Ultimate Showdown of Ultimate Destiny.

When does it happen?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Would it be suicidal to bring a battleship group to Port Morseby just to shell the poo poo out of it from offshore?

Jobbo_Fett
Mar 7, 2014

Slava Ukrayini

Clapping Larry

Night10194 posted:

I-400 vs. Surcouf: Ultimate Showdown of Ultimate Destiny.

When does it happen?

When Grey mods it in

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Leperflesh posted:

Would it be suicidal to bring a battleship group to Port Morseby just to shell the poo poo out of it from offshore?

Planes would probably get it.

goatface
Dec 5, 2007

I had a video of that when I was about 6.

I remember it being shit.


Grimey Drawer
There are probably light bombers there with the fun bombs as well as torpedoes.

OpenlyEvilJello
Dec 28, 2009

Ardeem posted:

And the only thing that can kill a submarine is another submarine.

To defeat the submarine, you must become the submarine.

ro5s
Dec 27, 2012

A happy little mouse!

OpenlyEvilJello posted:

To defeat the submarine, you must become the submarine.

Grey's played right into the American's hands by putting all their carriers underwater!

Brute Squad
Dec 20, 2006

Laughter is the sun that drives winter from the human race

Grey, could you talk a bit about your grand strategy and such on the 1st? It'd be nice to know what your general plan is for the various theaters at the start of the year.

disjoe
Feb 18, 2011


p sure the underlying strategy is to

A) maximize élan by destroying everything with battleships, and (inevitably) failing that

B) practice the virtues of bushido by embracing that we will all bloom as flowers of death. Ten thousand years, ten thousand ten thousand years, long life and glory to the Emperor astride his Tokyo Bay Fortress.


e: If we somehow win the war shitbirds on the internet 70 years from now will write about how the United States was destined to lose because of the massive discrepancy in Heroic Courage output between the two countries.

disjoe fucked around with this message at 22:34 on Dec 27, 2016

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

The grand strategy is to win the decisive fleet battle in a manner that would've had everyone's head explode at its brilliance and audacity, then get sleep deprived and try to gunfight a continent.

As long as we continue to swing between these extremes we cannot fail.

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Insane Totoro
Dec 5, 2005

Take cover!!!
That Totoro has an AR-15!
I have this image of an aerial tollbooth and all of these Zeroes trying to cram through it to get at a single B-17

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