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Futures/AH getting killed. Nasdaq down -2.5% S&P -2% if the market were still open we would have probably hit the 2nd circuit breaker. Edit: I'm also short $LVS / $WYNN. They're getting really killed in AH after $MGM announced it was cancelling its 1.25b stock buyback. Lote fucked around with this message at 22:53 on Mar 12, 2020 |
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Mar 12, 2020 22:38
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Went cash today after doubling up on the CZR puts (thank you Lote!). Trying to figure out what if any puts I want to try tomorrow. Seems like it could be more of the same.
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Mar 12, 2020 22:55
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newbie question: it seems to me that in these times of great volatility, the big spikes, up or down, happen at the opening of trading sessions, so if you want to capture that, assuming you can correctly intuit the direction things will go, you want to open positions before close of trading, and close them out the next day after the initial rush ends. Is that...sort of correct? like seeing indicators saying things will slide again tomorrow: now that today's trading session is over, is there a way to take advantage of that beyond set up an order and hope it clears? just seems like if you wanted to systematize this, you'd make an educated guess about where things would go around 3pm eastern, open accordingly, then close the next day around 1030 eastern.
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Mar 12, 2020 23:02
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Did you have a look at the chart for the Dow today? Would you have made an educated guess about this yesterday at 3pm?
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Mar 12, 2020 23:07
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ketchup vs catsup posted:newbie question: The only thing that you know happens on a day to day basis is that margin calls start at 2PM EST and go until 3PM. Unless your position gets blown out and the margin desk has to immediately close out your position for a huge loss. Edit: Ex: https://twitter.com/bravo6trader/status/1238170667419348993?s=21 Lote fucked around with this message at 23:14 on Mar 12, 2020 |
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Mar 12, 2020 23:12
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Serendipitaet posted:Did you have a look at the chart for the Dow today? Would you have made an educated guess about this yesterday at 3pm? Yes, but that's mostly because the news is constantly terrible and businesses are losing their customers for weeks at a time. Also countries are shutting down entirely, one at a time. I was sorta shocked it registered the "stimulus" at all. Other indicators are things like the NBA shutting down, SXSW shutting down, gatherings in general shutting down . . . and the economic impact that might have to suddenly get priced into every service industry conglomerate that exists if they are essentially shuttered for Q2 2020 unexpectedly.
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Mar 12, 2020 23:14
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Dow under 20k would be nuts to see again
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Mar 12, 2020 23:17
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We are 2% lower than the low from Dec 2018. Where's the next support after that? I'm not a technical guy.
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Mar 12, 2020 23:23
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2% lower from the 2017 pizza death cudgel.
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Mar 12, 2020 23:26
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You can look at a chart for guidance as to the next low, but please calibrate your findings by the fact that the federal government is waiting for research from Jared Kushner before the corona virus task force initiates any policy.
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Mar 12, 2020 23:28
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Lmao when we get over this its gonna be a wild ride back up
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Mar 12, 2020 23:43
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Shammypants posted:the federal government is waiting for research from Jared Kushner before the corona virus task force initiates any policy. He's read over 2 books on the subject.
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Mar 12, 2020 23:45
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Serendipitaet posted:Did you have a look at the chart for the Dow today? Would you have made an educated guess about this yesterday at 3pm? OK, let me condense my question: IF you have an intuition that markets will head in one particular direction tomorrow it seems like the best way to capture most of that movement on open is to open a position today, unless I'm missing something. SO, if you wanted to spend less time watching graphs all day, it would seem like you'd open positions as day 0's trading session nears ending and close those positions after day 1's session's initial movement is complete, assuming you've made profit. I guess what I'm really asking is, after a given day's session is there any way to take advantage of what you think will happen tomorrow before the bulk of what will happen actually does?
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Mar 12, 2020 23:45
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ketchup vs catsup posted:OK, let me condense my question: There's after hours trading for many issues, although trading is much thinner than during regular sessions. The issue, of course, is being right - there's a lot of time between close today and open tomorrow where financial markets can change (central bank actions, etc.) without the broader issues changing much at all. I wouldn't say it's likely, but it's possible that markets could retrace some of the losses tomorrow, which presents a problem if your entry point is right at the base of the retracing.
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Mar 12, 2020 23:49
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Can someone condense optionspeak into an explanation of how the weirdos on Reddit are using the stock market crashing and burning to post charts of obscene 1000% gains through puts? I don’t have any interest in doing it, I just don’t understand how options work.
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Mar 12, 2020 23:50
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Luigi Thirty posted:Can someone condense optionspeak into an explanation of how the weirdos on Reddit are using the stock market crashing and burning to post charts of obscene 1000% gains through puts? you can buy options that under normal circumstances have an extremely unlikely chance to be worth >$0 at expiry for almost no money. When not under normal circumstances, before prices adjust, it's possible to still buy those options and sometimes they hit huge.
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Mar 12, 2020 23:52
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ketchup vs catsup posted:you can buy options that under normal circumstances have an extremely unlikely chance to be worth >$0 at expiry for almost no money. Oh, so they put all their money on double 0 and let it ride baby
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Mar 12, 2020 23:55
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Meyers-Briggs Testicle posted:Lmao when we get over this its gonna be a wild ride back up Except it's almost assuredly not going to be like that. I just can't see how this is a v shaped recovery, at all. We're definitely going to have quite a few false bottoms where people think they're sniping value completely underestimating the severity of what's going on here only to be even more shook as the underlying strength of the economy decays: unemployment rises, earnings drop, and trade stops. This is already guaranteed, even if the cure was discovered and distributed tomorrow to everyone. Add to this that there will be bodies piling up and literally no escape- all sports are cancelled, the opiate of the masses is gone. Hell, production of new TV and movies is almost assuredly going to have to be halted after the whole situation with Tom Hanks. We're all opportunistic and excited by the prospect of cheap stonks right this second and maybe even a few weeks from now etc but literally 3 weeks ago we were at all time highs. This is going to take place over months, not days or weeks, and there certainly won't be an all clear green light ready go moment. I'd like to be more optimistic but I don't think this is going to be a quick recovery by any stretch, and I definitely think it's going to be a prolonged period of malaise that's going to eventually wear down even the most eager "V shaped recovery" people that have been bred over the past 10 years in which the market truly did only go up. There's definitely value to be had because there always is and will be, but the administration has clearly demonstrated they're utterly incompetent and have no understanding of the radical actions needed to be taken in order to slow this down, and it's not just "oh hey guys the banks are super well capitalized don't worry here have a tax cut even though you're banned from going to work". TheKevman fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Mar 13, 2020 |
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Mar 12, 2020 23:56
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Luigi Thirty posted:Oh, so they put all their money on double 0 and let it ride baby Basically except right now there's like 2 numbers on the wheel and double zero is encroaching 50% on the other.
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Mar 12, 2020 23:58
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Luigi Thirty posted:Oh, so they put all their money on double 0 and let it ride baby in this analogy they bet $1 on double 0 and won $1000, but yes
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Mar 12, 2020 23:58
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TheKevman posted:Basically except right now there's like 2 numbers on the wheel and double zero is encroaching 50% on the other. But payout is as well.
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Mar 13, 2020 00:01
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Luigi Thirty posted:Can someone condense optionspeak into an explanation of how the weirdos on Reddit are using the stock market crashing and burning to post charts of obscene 1000% gains through puts? Very brief overview: Options are a way to profit from the rise or fall in price of an underlying security without actually owning it or borrowing it to short it directly. There are two kinds of options, calls and puts. Calls are the right to buy a security at a specific price (called a strike price) any time before an expiration (which could be anywhere from 1 day to several months). Puts are the right to sell a security under similar constraints. For each of calls and puts, you can buy or sell them, depending on the behavior you're hoping to see: Buying calls is paying a premium on a bet that the underlying will go up more than the premium. Selling calls is receiving a premium on a bet that the underlying will stay the same or fall in price. Buying puts is paying a premium on a bet that the underlying will fall in price more than the premium. Selling puts is receiving a premium on a bet that the underlying will stay the same or rise in price. Buying things generally limits your risk to the value of the premium you paid to buy them. Selling things gives you generally unlimited risk since the person you sold it to has the right to exercise it at any time before its expiration. What people are doing in bear markets is buying puts and profiting from the massive falls in stock prices.
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Mar 13, 2020 00:01
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TheKevman posted:Hell, production of new TV and movies is almost assuredly going to have to be halted after the whole situation with Tom Hanks. Already happening, but not because of Tom Hanks. Productions are being shut down left and right.
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Mar 13, 2020 00:05
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Even during 2008 there were +5% days on no good news or objectively bad news even though the bottom wasn’t until March 2009. Even if you knew the market bottom was in 2009, if you’re using options the value of those fluctuate wildly. Volatility is harsh mistress.
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Mar 13, 2020 00:11
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Lote posted:Even during 2008 there were +5% days on no good news or objectively bad news even though the bottom wasn’t until March 2009. Even if you knew the market bottom was in 2009, if you’re using options the value of those fluctuate wildly. Volatility is harsh mistress. Exactly, and in the option examples from WSB if they're on the wrong side of it and can't liquidate in time they're going to have massive losses as well.
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Mar 13, 2020 00:14
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https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2020/3/12/21177375/disney-coronavirus-covid-19-theme-parks-disneyworld-disneyland gently caress ME. Should've held onto all my Disney puts. Disneyland (in California) is closing. At least I held onto one of them. Luigi Thirty posted:Can someone condense optionspeak into an explanation of how the weirdos on Reddit are using the stock market crashing and burning to post charts of obscene 1000% gains through puts? Some of these guys on reddit are yolo-ing $5k and turning it into 20, but for every one of them there's 500 losing money. For every guy that makes $500k investing $50k, there's even more losers.
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Mar 13, 2020 00:34
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Shammypants posted:please calibrate your findings by the fact that the federal government is waiting for research from Jared Kushner before the corona virus task force initiates any policy. Haha yah, this would be loving hilarious if millions of lives weren't on the line. Does make it easy to keep these puts in hand though. The roulette analogy is forced, because this outcome was predicted as "likely" by quite a few expert epidemiologists. When the head of the CDC says in a briefing ( Feb 25 ) that spread is inevitable and she sat her kids down over breakfast and told them "we as a family need to be preparing for significant disruption of our lives", you should buckle the gently caress up.
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Mar 13, 2020 00:36
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Guy on cnbc just said everyone should get 3 months of supplies and prepare to hunker down, but he was also an apologist for the trump admins apocalyptic incompetence sooo
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Mar 13, 2020 00:37
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I always tell people that they should treat stuff like this as a closed system: if you're making money it is because someone else is losing money. For every WSB poster who shares crazy gains, there are a thousand other people who just lost everything in their account to make that happen.greasyhands posted:Guy on cnbc just said everyone should get 3 months of supplies and prepare to hunker down, but he was also an apologist for the trump admins apocalyptic incompetence sooo loving lol. Most Americans don't have enough in savings to make it through a missed paycheck. 3 months of supplies? Riiiight.
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Mar 13, 2020 00:38
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TheKevman posted:We're all opportunistic and excited by the prospect of cheap stonks right this second and maybe even a few weeks from now etc but literally 3 weeks ago we were at all time highs. This is going to take place over months, not days or weeks, and there certainly won't be an all clear green light ready go moment. lol i feel like youre aiming this statement at someone from /r/wallstreetbets and not someone like me who thinks "a year recovery would be cool" edit: PS disney is gonna fall a lot more in the coming weeks and im packing my portfolio with mouse ears all the way down
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Mar 13, 2020 00:42
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DFS is going to go bankrupt on 5% cash back on groceries month
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Mar 13, 2020 00:42
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Bored As gently caress posted:https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2020/3/12/21177375/disney-coronavirus-covid-19-theme-parks-disneyworld-disneyland There are also people that end up getting way over leveraged and risk management is dumb as hell there. There have been people there that end up negative 5 or 6 figures in their account
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Mar 13, 2020 00:42
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Lote posted:There are also people that end up getting way over leveraged and risk management is dumb as hell there. There have been people there that end up negative 5 or 6 figures in their account a lot of the big negative posts demonstrate flaws in robinhood's platform like where selling stock increases your margin threshold which lets you buy more stock on margin to sell and increase your margin threshold https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKXrVriacUM
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Mar 13, 2020 00:44
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Meyers-Briggs Testicle posted:a lot of the big negative posts demonstrate flaws in robinhood's platform Yes this was well publicized back in November, I don't think it is possible anymore.
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Mar 13, 2020 00:47
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Lol at all the people piling into he thread right now. No one in here knows where the bottom is.
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Mar 13, 2020 00:52
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Meyers-Briggs Testicle posted:a lot of the big negative posts demonstrate flaws in robinhood's platform Reposting this classic https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ahy7dy/the_legend_of_1r0nyman/?utm_source=amp&utm_medium=&utm_content=post_title
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Mar 13, 2020 00:54
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Meyers-Briggs Testicle posted:Lmao when we get over this its gonna be a wild ride back up Agree. But the near term outlook is pretty dire
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Mar 13, 2020 00:56
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Oscar Wild posted:Lol at all the people piling into he thread right now. No one in here knows where the bottom is. 11 years and bulls just can’t give it up
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Mar 13, 2020 01:00
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Luigi Thirty posted:Oh, so they put all their money on double 0 and let it ride baby Yeah, but more like buying a whole roll of cheap lotto scratchers that all pay out. Options: A trader sells you a contract that lets you force that trader to either buy or sell stock with you at a specific price. Any resultant undercharging/overcharging is your profit. But if you're wrong, you're out the money with nothing to show for it. Accretionist fucked around with this message at 01:10 on Mar 13, 2020 |
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Mar 13, 2020 01:07
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Luigi Thirty posted:Oh, so they put all their money on double 0 and let it ride baby ehhhh, almost. this is more like they heard one of the tables has a faulty spinner and the odds of it landing on black were much higher than landing on red. they heard this advice and said (literally in some cases) "yolo gently caress it" and put 100k down people comparing this to a purely luck-based event aren't giving due credit to the early warning of the crisis
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Mar 13, 2020 01:10
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