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Zwabu posted:Did Santos actually win a contested GOP primary in Long Island, or was he somehow the picked/groomed candidate for them? Looks like he ran uncontested, but there were at least 3 viable Dems in the Dem primary. Sounds like the Dems assumed it'd be a relatively safe seat, and the GOP just let whoever run, and Zeldinmania snuck him through.
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Dec 31, 2022 06:06
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The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative https://nyti.ms/3Z06OAs In so many words, and as noted here several times, Trafalgar polls were garbage. But very few candidates, donors, or political media were using good polling data during this election.
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Dec 31, 2022 15:19
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Sodomy Hussein posted:The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative https://nyti.ms/3Z06OAs Yeah, you could tell this was happening pretty much as it was happening, but nice to see it laid out like this. Republican have a talent for finding any informational vulnerability and gaming it to advance whatever narrative they want. Polling was a nice, fat vulnerability they knew they could exploit. The comparison to a "switch turning on" is apt. That's exactly what happened. If polling was reputationally damaged before, it's pretty much broken now. And "legit" pollsters are going to have to essentially certify good data, requiring more resources and time. And it will probably never get fixed.
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Dec 31, 2022 21:40
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Love Rat posted:Yeah, you could tell this was happening pretty much as it was happening, but nice to see it laid out like this. Republican have a talent for finding any informational vulnerability and gaming it to advance whatever narrative they want. Well, while the article implies corrupt polling practices, it makes clear that Republicans lost a few winnable ones as well, and went into November feeling they would crush it, because there's fewer Machiavellians and more high on their own supply types.
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Dec 31, 2022 21:56
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Sodomy Hussein posted:Well, while the article implies corrupt polling practices, it makes clear that Republicans lost a few winnable ones as well, and went into November feeling they would crush it, because there's fewer Machiavellians and more high on their own supply types. True enough. The Republicans are also masters of not thinking things through or anticipating how their tactics can damage their own interests. I agree with you 100% that a lot of this was fantasy wish fulfillment.
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Dec 31, 2022 22:21
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I mean the people aggregating and reporting on these polls could simply stop paying attention to bullshit pollsters who report wildly inaccurate results and then move their numbers to within the MOE at the last second. Or polls that are conducted by a couple of highschoolers. I don’t think that would drive as many clicks on their stupid wank pieces during election season though
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Dec 31, 2022 22:35
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i am a moron posted:I mean the people aggregating and reporting on these polls could simply stop paying attention to bullshit pollsters who report wildly inaccurate results and then move their numbers to within the MOE at the last second. Or polls that are conducted by a couple of highschoolers. I don’t think that would drive as many clicks on their stupid wank pieces during election season though The desire for clicks and likes is too great to pass up for a lot of the celebrity pollsters. The narrative is much more important than any data points and they'll take whatever garbage they need to get their story.
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Dec 31, 2022 22:50
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Sodomy Hussein posted:Well, while the article implies corrupt polling practices, it makes clear that Republicans lost a few winnable ones as well, and went into November feeling they would crush it, because there's fewer Machiavellians and more high on their own supply types. I mean, a 50+ year run before a mass of true believers in the kool-aide rose to power ain't bad.
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Jan 1, 2023 00:58
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i am a moron posted:I mean the people aggregating and reporting on these polls could simply stop paying attention to bullshit pollsters who report wildly inaccurate results and then move their numbers to within the MOE at the last second. Or polls that are conducted by a couple of highschoolers. I don’t think that would drive as many clicks on their stupid wank pieces during election season though People have been rightly complaining about 538's accepted pollsters for a long time. Fostering feelings of impending victory/terror, swinginess, and so on drives a lot of clicks and writing prompts from people who need to vomit content regularly and/or party propaganda.
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Jan 1, 2023 01:06
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Maybe someone with big math brain can omit the players who do the "jump to MoE at last second" game and present the realtime results. We can call it unskewing the polls
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Jan 1, 2023 01:35
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Any bets on who the next speaker will be?
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Jan 3, 2023 18:22
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daslog posted:Any bets on who the next speaker will be? My money's on a dumbfuck cretin
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Jan 3, 2023 18:23
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Staluigi posted:My money's on a dumbfuck cretin THAT'S ALL OF THEM THOUGH!
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Jan 3, 2023 18:27
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daslog posted:Any bets on who the next speaker will be? I bet Scalise gets it after a few ballots and McCarthy goes down in flames
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Jan 3, 2023 18:30
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There are two diametrically opposed theories here, lol. One is that McCarthy is the favorite to squeak it out after some unknown period of chaos. The other is that he's the only person who isn't a favorite, because the strongest unifying factor for this gaggle of morons is Not McCarthy.
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Jan 3, 2023 18:31
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Other than some mealy-mouthed poo poo about Jan. 6, what is the actual concrete problem the hardliners have with McCarthy? He seems so vacuous and willing to do whatever people want as is.
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Jan 3, 2023 19:08
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Pook Good Mook posted:Other than some mealy-mouthed poo poo about Jan. 6, what is the actual concrete problem the hardliners have with McCarthy? He seems so vacuous and willing to do whatever people want as is. Yeah I have this questions as well. I mean he got voted into the minority leader position right? Although I guess that just requires a majority of votes from the caucus, I’d imagine. What does he lack that they require? Not enough blood gargling or insurrection?
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Jan 3, 2023 19:16
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I did hear that he made a deal for the seat that gets him in, but apparently there's a stipulation that any 5 GOP members can call a no confidence vote for any reason. With a 5 seat majority that means at minimum, he'll get gently caress all done, and more likely be out on his rear end within 2 weeks. Calling this up front to be the most dysfunctional house cycle in history.
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Jan 3, 2023 19:21
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Pook Good Mook posted:Other than some mealy-mouthed poo poo about Jan. 6, what is the actual concrete problem the hardliners have with McCarthy? He seems so vacuous and willing to do whatever people want as is. They want changes to internal Republican caucus rules that make it easier for the freedom caucus to block things, it's not a specific policy disagreement.
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Jan 3, 2023 19:21
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daslog posted:Any bets on who the next speaker will be?
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Jan 3, 2023 19:37
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Pook Good Mook posted:Other than some mealy-mouthed poo poo about Jan. 6, what is the actual concrete problem the hardliners have with McCarthy? He seems so vacuous and willing to do whatever people want as is. Since he's the only dumbass who actually and desperately wants to be Speaker, holding that position hostage with 5 votes in exchange for outlandish demands makes perfect sense. So the Freedom Caucus saw that it was the perfect time to flex their muscle and show the world that they run Bartertown. Meanwhile, nobody in the entire Republican Caucus likes McCarthy or believe in Team McCarthy. He's just the acceptable only guy who wants it, and the members who aren't publishing erotic Jan 6th fan fics see him as the best of the terrible options. This then escalated, because all the elected representatives are terrible people with terrible world views, to the point where the Speakership of McCarthy became a symbol of which faction actually is in charge. Additionally McCarthy made side deals with some but not all of the people who were threatening to vote against him. So now the people who started out saber rattling for concessions are being attacked and insulted by the rest of the caucus while seeing some of their allies being paid off while they sit there empty handed. Surprisingly, this has inspired all the worst bullies, braggarts, and bigots that America could send to Congress to double down and pull out their lighters while giggling instead of being beta cuck woke softies. Basically every other Speaker or actual potential Speaker in the last 100 years had the political acumen, intelligence, and power to navigate the caucus trying to get favors for votes or otherwise trying to gain leverage over them. However McCarthy is such a moronic sad sack that he is completely incapable of actually doing any of that. His flailing attempts to do so have only made his situation worse, especially since he believes he is entitled to and owed the Speakership. The Freedom Caucus being a punch of insane true believers and lunatic grifters certainly hasn't helped the issue, but McCarthy's incompetence has helped to blossom things into an actual revolt instead of just political theater. Gyges fucked around with this message at 19:42 on Jan 3, 2023 |
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Jan 3, 2023 19:39
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World Famous W posted:a random stray dog who wandered in Major's path back to DC is clear
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Jan 3, 2023 19:39
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McCarthy is such a loving idiot his speakership is being held hostage, in part, by a HS dropout who married someone who whippped their dick out at a bowling alley and has all but doomed her next run in a GE in a safe Republican district. I hope this kind of idiocy continues for the GOP as they keep doubling down for their base
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Jan 3, 2023 19:48
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Pook Good Mook posted:Other than some mealy-mouthed poo poo about Jan. 6, what is the actual concrete problem the hardliners have with McCarthy? He seems so vacuous and willing to do whatever people want as is. In a better, more rational GOP, he was passed over for the Speakership in favor of Paul Ryan. He's bad at playing the media, there's rumors of skeletons in his closet, and he has terrible political instincts (recall, he wanted to boycott the Jan 6th Committee, which many have since regretted because it gave Democrats a prime time slot to bash on Trump). There are better candidates, but none of them want the job, as it's going to be virtually impossible to manage the caucus.
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Jan 3, 2023 19:50
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being a hs dropout should not be used as an indicator of lack of intelligence or competency sincerely, an incompetent and moronic 10th grade dropout
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Jan 3, 2023 19:52
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Graduating from, say, Harvard and being a congressperson doesn’t mean you’re smart either. But it is an indicator you’ll be better connected than a HS dropout whose campaign consisted of being a walking Boomer Facebook meme who is weirdly vulnerable in a republican stronghold district, and is now yelling bullshit at a candidate for speaker in a meeting with their peers
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Jan 3, 2023 20:01
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World Famous W posted:being a hs dropout should not be used as an indicator of lack of intelligence or competency It's being used as shorthand because she's a dropout who took and failed the GED several times, only passing it AFTER she was first elected, along with rumors that she didn't even take it herself. Otherwise I agree. But putting that much into a quick description where we all know it's her is better than writing all that out every time we're forced to think about her sex-offender-loving self.
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Jan 3, 2023 20:08
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Captain_Maclaine posted:Again, I feel it's underappreciated just how much the Church didn't have as many complaints with fascism as a whole when weighed against what the Vatican considered the real bugbear out there: international socialism and especially the Soviet Union. Much of what the fascist regimes claimed to champion fell squarely within the realm of what the leaders of the Church considered important, in particular a return to traditional hierarchy and a rejection of democracy*/modernity, the latter being a rearguard action the Church had been fighting (thankfully with little success) since 1789 at the least. Even official Church rejection of fascist anti-Semitism was a difference of degree, not category; they didn't disagree that Jews were a lesser people/faith, just that they shouldn't probably be exterminated en masse for it. Probably at its darkest we can see a manifestation of this in Cardinal Clemens August graf von Galen, heroic champion of the victims of T-4 who had led the popular movement that forced the Nazis to (at least pretend to) shut down the medical exterminations of the "useless eaters," refusing to speak out on the subject of the Jewish victims when directly begged to do so. It helps that Fascism didn't have destruction of religion and the church as one of its core tenants. Had Communism had allowed freedom of religion and the Church to exist within it's Soviet System as China did with its state controlled Church system things may have been a bit different. But the hate of the western institution of the Papacy due to its connection with imperialism, colonialism, and capitalism, lead to a full ban on religion by the Russians and the rest is history.
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Jan 4, 2023 03:59
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daslog posted:Any bets on who the next speaker will be? I'm going to put my money on 'an old white man'.
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Jan 4, 2023 05:04
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CameronisGod posted:It helps that Fascism didn't have destruction of religion and the church as one of its core tenants. The funny thing is, the Bolsheviks never went whole hog on exterminating religion or the Orthodox Church (despite the latter giving them every reason so to do during the Civil War). Lenin allowed the Church to persist, even continuing Patriarch Tikhon in office after the regime was fully established. Even Stalin, resentful former seminary student that he was, at his worst never fully scrubbed the Church from Soviet life, and subsequent anti-religion campaigns withing the USSR tended to act at checks against Orthodoxy (and to a very lesser extent other faiths) expanding beyond acceptable bounds, rather than a full-assault on the faithful.
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Jan 4, 2023 05:20
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CameronisGod posted:It helps that Fascism didn't have destruction of religion and the church as one of its core tenants. I'm not sure you know what the papacy is, or alternatively what brand of Christianity is the thing in Russia.
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Jan 4, 2023 05:53
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So, Kevin has now failed to be elected speaker after 3 votes, losing support between them, which gives me so much loving joy I'm now married to Marie Kondo. Let's let them do this for the rest of the next 2 years. At least they can't gently caress anything up this way.
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Jan 4, 2023 06:07
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Don’t they need to pass a budget at some point?
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Jan 4, 2023 06:58
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AlexDeGruven posted:So, Kevin has now failed to be elected speaker after 3 votes, losing support between them, which gives me so much loving joy I'm now married to Marie Kondo. How long CAN this go before it fucks things up? Isn’t there a budget vote due soon that they would literally not be able to do anything with if they don’t seat a speaker?
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Jan 4, 2023 06:58
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The Lone Badger posted:I'm going to put my money on 'an old white man'. Right now, the person keeping the lights on in the House is a black woman.
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Jan 4, 2023 07:01
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Can the House do anything without an elected speaker?
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Jan 4, 2023 07:15
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Ardeem posted:Don’t they need to pass a budget at some point? Not until they have a speaker. It is required that a speaker is elected before ANY other house business can move forward. I'm sure the Senate can provide some relief on budgets if they get hamstrung for too long, but I really don't know. Even better, the house doesn't get paid until this is done, too. Cicero posted:Can the House do anything without an elected speaker? Literally nothing else. It is the first order of business and a prerequisite for all other business.
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Jan 4, 2023 07:22
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I think the most likely situation is McCarthy giving the Freedom Party his scalp so they'll simmer down and vote in Scalise, his former deputy, who's a lot more popular and wasn't responsible for overseeing not having all the Dems in the house dragged out to the street and shot for treason or whatever they're pissed off about. They're not likely to drag this out for more than a few days if McCarthy takes the hint and fucks off. The FC might even get all the ridiculous concessions they dragged out of McCarthy to boot. Which will be .. fun.. when just one person needs to speak up to force a vote of confidence. Still expect a giant poo poo show for the next two years now that the FC has shown their teeth, but at least it'll have some poor bastard they forced into running it so they'll get paid.
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Jan 4, 2023 07:39
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killer_robot posted:when just one person needs to speak up to force a vote of confidence. This seems like putting a lot of faith that the democrats won't just abuse this to force a vote to replace the speaker literally every day.
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Jan 4, 2023 17:00
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CameronisGod posted:It helps that Fascism didn't have destruction of religion and the church as one of its core tenants. Christianity in Russia has nothing to do with the Papacy, they're all Eastern Orthodox. The Bolsheviks didn't like religious institutions because those religious institutions were intrinsically conservative and couldn't avoid getting in the way of mass social planning (can't get the Jews to work Saturdays, can't get the Muslims to eat pork, can't get the Christians to collaborate with the Jews or Muslims)
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Jan 4, 2023 17:23
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